Draft Expert Davo-27's 2023 Draft Thread

[pushintheback]

How someone could define my last post as shitting on kids is hilarious to me.

Anyway enough of that nonsense and now to the players rising in value this year

Jake Rogers: his form the last 2 years has been strong, but the 2 efforts for the AFL Academy v men were unexpected, he highlighted his pace and ability to find clean attacking space at the stoppage and centre bounces, his disposal has been solid too and the way he tackles men in these games also makes me think he has what it takes, for me he has gone from around that 20 pick mark to a top 10 chance, probably the form player out of everyone in the draft pool atm

Colby McKercher: another whose game has developed to another level, just oozes class this year, has put on display his talents as a midfielder and not just a winger, I think because he can play both roles at a good level, it has risen his value and he is now a top 10 prospect with potential to go top 5

Jack Delean: in my view he has improved his value, he might not have the raw numbers at sanfl u18s, but he seems to play better in big games, also can play him hff and mid to good levels, so isn't just pigeon holed as a forw, in 2021 people were comparing him to Isaac Heeney and potentially pick 1, but everyone forgot his potential in 2022, but I think he has a lot of talent and it shines through the tougher the opponent

Darcy Wilson: another who I think because of his scoring power and ability to find space on a wing has improved his ranking, he wasn't so good in games I saw of him last season, but plenty were talking him up including CT, but I can see where they were coming from in various games so far this season for Murray and AFL Academy, although he does make more errors than I personally like, he does have special moments as well

Harry Demattia: a player I was told to keep an eye out for last year, talk about strong explosive talent, in Dandenong games this year he has exploded onto the ball and has kicked some ripper goals, I love how he plays, he has a bit of Jai Newcombe about him, strong, aggressive, bull of a player, I didn't know much about him prior to the season, but I have loved what he has produced so far this season and Dandenong are a delight to watch again, they are creating a good program down there in the last few years and have some rippers for next year

Mitch Edwards: a player I have rated around 20-30 previously, I think he may have pushed himself into 1st round contention, I don't like over rating 17 yr old ruckman because their development takes so long compared to average sized talent who are immediately ready to go and kpp who take approx 2-3 years to get going, rucks can take 3-5 years to start showing their best at the top level, but Edwards has shown an ability to not only win taps but also win a fair share of disposal around the ground and also importantly an ability to take contested pack marks on a fairly regular basis, which has been exciting to watch in various competitions

I will talk about another 6 players I think are rising in value prior to the champs in the next post

Davo-27 were you at last nights game? Friday night lights in Franga are too cold for my frail bones. How did Demattia and Philactides go? I see both were named in the best. Craft of The Draft post match interview with the coach said Philactides is playing as the deepest defender in a new role…strange. Maybe this explains your thoughts.

 

[Davo-27]

Davo-27 were you at last nights game? Friday night lights in Franga are too cold for my frail bones. How did Demattia and Philactides go? I see both were named in the best. Craft of The Draft post match interview with the coach said Philactides is playing as the deepest defender in a new role…strange. Maybe this explains your thoughts.

No I didn't catch that game, generally the CTL drops in quality significantly once half the squad goes to their private school competitions, so I don't watch as many of those games because it's easy to look good when you're playing against and with weaker talent, not to discredit anyone, it's just logical reasoning.

 

[Davo-27]

I will talk about the next 6 I wanted to highlight

Thomas Anastasopoulos: a player who I noticed round 1 this year, I did a team of the week in round 1 and put him in there, I've noticed some similarities with Josh Rachele in his game, he has kicked a few bags of goals and looks a real talent, should go somewhere in the top 30, has a lot of AFL traits and instincts imo, can't wait to see if he can continue to play as well as he has for Vic Country at the champs

Angus Hastie: fantastic defender for Geelong, very athletic hbf/3rd tall Def, wins a lot of contests, good intercept Mark, good disposal, creates counter attacking opportunities, very much an all round defender, has improved his draft stocks after the important 1st month of the CTL

Joel Freijah: he has improved his value off of 1 huge game, the first 3 rounds I thought he was good, but nothing that made him stand-out, then he plays 1 game where he kicks 6? of 9 goals for his team, is everywhere, on a wing, in mid then pushing forw and every snap going through the big sticks, it was a crazy game where everything he touched turned to gold, his team lost the game, but he was a star that game, I had seen him a dozen or so times before that and never saw anything near that perfect game from him, so if he can harness that potential more often then he might be a top 20 candidate?

Will McCabe: has had a few big games this year, started forward with OK results in the sanfl u18s for a couple of games, then moved back where he is getting 20s and 30s disposals and showing his speed for a big man, also impressed V NSW in the state trials, im looking forward to what he can show at the champs

Jordan Croft: ruckman height but similar to McCabe is very quick, plays forward and ruck, has great athletic traits, kicking at goal can be a bit wayward and has yet to dominate a game, but his athletic traits and his height are very valuable, it's his killer instinct that may need work? That's why I have him more as a 2nd round option, even though his physical traits point to a 1st round option.

Logan Evans: playing SANFL footy as an outside mid, good movement, good kick in general, having some good form at state level is a good sign that they can handle the physical pressure of playing against bigger bodies ect, can't wait to see him and everyone else mentioned in these 3 posts at the champs.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Will McCabe: has had a few big games this year, started forward with OK results in the sanfl u18s for a couple of games, then moved back where he is getting 20s and 30s disposals and showing his speed for a big man, also impressed V NSW in the state trials, im looking forward to what he can show at the champs

Jordan Croft: ruckman height but similar to McCabe is very quick, plays forward and ruck, has great athletic traits, kicking at goal can be a bit wayward and has yet to dominate a game, but his athletic traits and his height are very valuable, it's his killer instinct that may need work? That's why I have him more as a 2nd round option, even though his physical traits point to a 1st round option.

Both would need to stack on the weight and muscle quick smart.

Croft comes in a lot skinnier than Sam Darcy while McCabe strikes me as a bit of a fuller Ayce Cordy with hopefully more skill.

 

[Davo-27]

Both would need to stack on the weight and muscle quick smart.

Croft comes in a lot skinnier than Sam Darcy while McCabe strikes me as a bit of a fuller Ayce Cordy with hopefully more skill.

You'll find most 195cm+ players need to stack on the weight, that's why they take longer to show their best at the top level, it's usually the ones who don't work hard enough in the dieting/gym that take the longest to develop, getting to your playing weight when you are playing a more combative/contested role is really important or you can nerf your influence in other ways and I find players lose confidence in other areas of their game if they can't hold their own physically.

 

[juss]

Very interested in Charlie Naish as we will likely take from a Father/Son bid if he's any good. Seems to have had a reasonable start to the season, is he still tracking around that pick 40 mark or is he playing himself any higher?

 

[Davo-27]

Very interested in Charlie Naish as we will likely take from a Father/Son bid if he's any good. Seems to have had a reasonable start to the season, is he still tracking around that pick 40 mark or is he playing himself any higher?

I think he is a late draft option, so 30-Rookie depending on clubs interest in him, also helps if he gets selected in the Vic metro team, he is probably Northern Knights best player(outside of Caddy and Dattoli for next year) so he has put himself in a good position to be drafted, I chose him as a late option in the trial run bigfooty phantom draft, so I think he has qualities worth investing in at the AFL level.

 

[Yoda_]

Dave, what are your thoughts on Frangalas?

Really like the idea of him with our second

 

[pushintheback]

No I didn't catch that game, generally the CTL drops in quality significantly once half the squad goes to their private school competitions, so I don't watch as many of those games because it's easy to look good when you're playing against and with weaker talent, not to discredit anyone, it's just logical reasoning.

Fair enough but i have a different view and I reckon you have gone a bit early on your opinions. Also based on that theory there can’t be risers either. Having said that I assume you are basing your player performance opinions off 3 CTL games? I generally enjoy reading your opinions but in this instance I couldn’t disagree more on 3 out of the 4.

I agree Moir has been quieter than we all expected but even still he has still had some good games in the SANFL. His academy games have been quiet.

Duursma absolutely dominated yesterday. He had a good game in the VFL. His game against Carlton was good and he showed his class with a goal on the run. Up until yesterday his CTL games have been ok but yesterday was great. His pre season game was good as well.

Lorenz is tearing it up at school footy. His academy games were fine and he showed he’s a good ball user. He didn’t rack up the footy but he had real good moments every game including the 3 ctl games he’s played. His pre season form was great.

Philactides had 2 strong academy games and many media outlets had him amongst the best for the academy and he also played well for Richmond VFL against a AFL listed GC team. His CTL games have not been as bad as you are making out and on Friday night he was named in the best playing a new role. And his pre season games were elite.

So I know you are considered by many a draft go to person and as I said I do like reading some of your opinions but imo I think you’re off the mark and I think it’s probably a lack of you watching games live to suggest they’re dropping in value based on 3 games of CTL.

 

[Davo-27]

Fair enough but i have a different view and I reckon you have gone a bit early on your opinions. Also based on that theory there can’t be risers either. Having said that I assume you are basing your player performance opinions off 3 CTL games? I generally enjoy reading your opinions but in this instance I couldn’t disagree more on 3 out of the 4.

I agree Moir has been quieter than we all expected but even still he has still had some good games in the SANFL. His academy games have been quiet.

Duursma absolutely dominated yesterday. He had a good game in the VFL. His game against Carlton was good and he showed his class with a goal on the run. Up until yesterday his CTL games have been ok but yesterday was great. His pre season game was good as well.

Lorenz is tearing it up at school footy. His academy games were fine and he showed he’s a good ball user. He didn’t rack up the footy but he had real good moments every game including the 3 ctl games he’s played. His pre season form was great.

Philactides had 2 strong academy games and many media outlets had him amongst the best for the academy and he also played well for Richmond VFL against a AFL listed GC team. His CTL games have not been as bad as you are making out and on Friday night he was named in the best playing a new role. And his pre season games were elite.

So I know you are considered by many a draft go to person and as I said I do like reading some of your opinions but imo I think you’re off the mark and I think it’s probably a lack of you watching games live to suggest they’re dropping in value based on 3 games of CTL.

1.so you agree with Moir

2. You yourself have stated Duursma has been disappointing in the CTL in your own fking thread and you said something to the affect of "he had some nice moments, but was quiet" in the Carlton game, so which is it? Make up your mind...

3. You have also said Lorenz isn't playing well because he gets ignored at Oakleigh by the 3 underagers? Make up your mind, is he playing bad and the excuse is he is being ignored or playing well? Excuse or playing well? What is it?

4. His form has been up and down, you seem die hard on defending him, are you related to Philactides, im just curious?

I just do draft lists, some like what I do, others don't, I do this as a hobby for myself tbh.

 

[The acurate one]

If you want to think that that's your prerogative.

Just don't be surprised if he slides.

And don't be surprised if the Eagles look elsewhere.

Often a top 5 player slides. The whisper is he may well be this year's.

We will see.

Sam van Rooyen yeah? Think he's getting al ot of attention

 

[Futbolista]

When it comes to sliding, I'm getting a tad worried about Koltyn Tholstrup.

Up until June/July last year he was absolutely mercurial - outmarking bigger opponents, kicking freakish goals and even sidestepping and dodging traffic to create goals for others.

Since then, he has become a more bash and crash high half forward who niggles and confronts but doesn't do the magical things he once did - he's also started to double handle the pill recently.

I hope he recaptures what I saw in the first half of 2022. Maybe it's just a dip in form. I hope so because I loved the way he used to play.

 

[RoughysMullet]

So far this season I think there has been many who have stabilised their reputation or draft value from my PoV, but there have been as many who are rising in value and a handful dropping in value, so I thought I would comment on players I think are rising/dropping in value so far this year and a reason why.

Players dropping in value from the public's favourites:

Ashton Moir: he was talked about as a very high pick, I had seen him in a few games last year and he wasn't great, except 1 game where things went his way and he kicked I think 4 goals(he also has an impressive u18s record, so I gave him the benefit of the doubt) he seems like a slow and laconic forward with beautiful skills, has dominated in the open spaces and lack of pressure that Is the SANFL U18s, but in reserves or for the AFL Academy and the VM game last year he struggles to get the ball to show off his skills, I wouldn't use a top 10 pick on a guy who struggles to get the footy in pressure games, he needs a big champs series imo, similar to Cam Taheny or Curtis Taylor from North

Zane Duursma: an amazing talent as a medium forward, but at AFL level, medium forwards aren't as dominant, he is a decent midfielder, mostly his movement is elite, but struggles to win the ball enough or have enough impact as a mid with poss, meaning a club is likely going to have to play him forward 80/20 at the next level, but his movement and deadeye accuracy at goal and being a nice height gives him traits that will see him in good stead at the top level.

Will Lorenz: has good movement in the midfield, but has dropped away big this season, playing mostly forward for Oakleigh and not stamping any authority on any game so far this year, going through the motions and needs to show more than a couple of top tier games last year, there are rumours he is playing injured, but there's no excuse for weak effort imo, for both Oakleigh and the AFL Academy he wasn't performing to expectations, so we'll see what he does at the champs.

Nathan Philactides: his games last year were fantastic, strong, intercepting gun, run and carry and good disposal, this year nearly every aspect of his game has got worse, idk what it is, he has been in really bad form for Oakleigh, but has lifted and played well for the AFL Academy so I'm not sure yet and I'm waiting for the champs with this guy, because there are worrying signs and positive signs, so hopefully he puts the concerns to bed with some great games at the champs.

Next Post I will discuss my thoughts on the dozen kids who have raised their drafting profiles imo

Harsh on Lorenz - has only played 2 games for Oakleigh was average in one and one of their best in the other.. Not being played in the midfield by them either for whatever reason. School footy games he’s been good… Struggled in the academy games but hasn’t been alone there…

 

[Davo-27]

Harsh on Lorenz - has only played 2 games for Oakleigh was average in one and one of their best in the other.. Not being played in the midfield by them either for whatever reason. School footy games he’s been good… Struggled in the academy games but hasn’t been alone there…

I really want to be apathetic and not care(sorry it's my INTP go to) but I'll engage, dropping in value indicates that the player has value, maybe over rated value and adjustments should occur, im not saying that the players are bad.....

 

[pushintheback]

1.so you agree with Moir

2. You yourself have stated Duursma has been disappointing in the CTL in your own fking thread and you said something to the affect of "he had some nice moments, but was quiet" in the Carlton game, so which is it? Make up your mind...

3. You have also said Lorenz isn't playing well because he gets ignored at Oakleigh by the 3 underagers? Make up your mind, is he playing bad and the excuse is he is being ignored or playing well? Excuse or playing well? What is it?

4. His form has been up and down, you seem die hard on defending him, are you related to Philactides, im just curious?

I just do draft lists, some like what I do, others don't, I do this as a hobby for myself tbh.

Relax mate. It’s just my opinion. No I’m not related. I think the kid is very talented and occasionally I just see things differently than you. That’s all. It’s not personal. Just my opinion. I have a few favourites that are not the follow the leader ones so I track them more than the players that many talk about. Now let’s move on

 

[Yoda_]

Dave, what are your thoughts on Frangalas?

Really like the idea of him with our second

please

 

[Davo-27]

please

Frangalas is a tallish big bodied mid as you know, doesn't get big numbers, has decent impact, I think he'll be there in the 2nd round, I like that he can run and carry for a big bloke and is good In the aerial contest, he loves a shot at goal, I think he might go mid draft if I had to guess, maybe 20-40 type of range, but that will be clearer after the champs and how he goes for Vic Country, he can go missing at times, but he can also have moments of brilliance, so he has parts of his game a club can work with, but he isn't a certainty so unlikely going top 15 or so I don't think.

I think the bigfooty trial run is a good source of shared knowledge and he was pick 30 there.

 

[BurnaHawks]

I don’t think it’s very fair to start sh*ting on these kids. They each might have their own reason as to why they aren’t performing each week. As long as there are putting in effort it’s all you can ask for.

Your performance when composing this comment is not up to standard. You need to do better!

 

[Davo-27]

For the MSD I generally don't watch much state league footy, so I'm not going to pretend to know who is a chance from those comps, my favourite 19 year olds from the CTL have been probably these players

Ryan Maric, I really liked his round 1 game for Gipps, every game since I have been impressed by his marking ability, work rate, goal kicking and general kicking skills, apparently lost some weight and is in good condition I think I heard somewhere, good CTL form, good footy for the young guns, good footy for Box Hill, the media have hyped him up, so now everyone knows and he's likely top 2-3 pick

Ethan Stanley, the only state Games I watch every week are Box Hill games and he has played every game and looks good, I believe he is also 19, so a worthy investment, tallish winger, could be an option, has looked at home for Box Hill from Frankston and played well for the young guns

Rye Penny, have not seen many mention him, but I have loved his midfield work this year, good burst through the midfield, has a great aerial mark for a medium sized player, also can run and carry off hbf, he was unlucky with injury last year, 2 high value years and has the talent to play AFL

I think Clay Tucker could be a ruckman worth developing, i have also liked Ollington for Tassie, he has been a fantastic player, but he is a inbetweener forw, Kirk from Sydney Academy has had another good year, he could be an option if he puts his hand up for the MSD, Others I have seen clips of that I liked the look of were Buller and Hansen from WA, other than that I don't know of the other players

 

[Davo-27]

Leading into the champs I thought I would put out a tier list for where I think players might sit right now from my PoV, warning, my opinions might upset people....

Elite: H.Reid..... J.Rogers, C.McKercher, J.Walter, D.Curtin

Top Tier: N.Watson, J.Delean, K.Tholstrup, D.Wilson, N.Caddy, A.Reid, M.Edwards, Z.Duursma, L.Evans, H.Demattia

AFL Qualities: W.Lorenz, A.Moir, N.Philactides, W.Brown, J.Croft, L.Morris, A.Naim, J.Smith, T.Anastasopoulos, L. Lual, B.Wilson, S.Frangalas, J.Freijah, C.O'Sullivan, A.Hastie, W.McCabe, W.Patton, B.Ridgeway, L.Slade, C.Hall, K.Sanchez, R.Hardeman, E.Read, J.Callinan, R.Sanders. (there are more in this group, but I thought I would round it out to 40)

 

[RedmanWasHere]

C.McKercher

Would you say Colby McHurtsya?

 

[Davo-27]

Would you say Colby McHurtsya?

With his run and carry, Accumulation, quality inside/outside game, sure, I have heard some talk about how he loves his left side or something, im not sure that is a problem as most players have a preferred side, but it's something to keep an eye out for, but his CTL and AFL Academy form has been impressive playing a more inside and contested role this year, which gives me confidence to put him in that elite group, as have the others in that group.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

With his run and carry, Accumulation, quality inside/outside game, sure, I have heard some talk about how he loves his left side or something, im not sure that is a problem as most players have a preferred side, but it's something to keep an eye out for, but his CTL and AFL Academy form has been impressive playing a more inside and contested role this year, which gives me confidence to put him in that elite group, as have the others in that group.

You missed the little pun there.

 

[Davo-27]

You missed the little pun there

I'm not the biggest fan of puns, but I got it, McHurtsya, clever

 

[BurnaHawks]

Leading into the champs I thought I would put out a tier list for where I think players might sit right now from my PoV, warning, my opinions might upset people....

Elite: H.Reid..... J.Rogers, C.McKercher, J.Walter, D.Curtin

Top Tier: N.Watson, J.Delean, K.Tholstrup, D.Wilson, N.Caddy, A.Reid, M.Edwards, Z.Duursma, L.Evans, H.Demattia

AFL Qualities: W.Lorenz, A.Moir, N.Philactides, W.Brown, J.Croft, L.Morris, A.Naim, J.Smith, T.Anastasopoulos, L. Lual, B.Wilson, S.Frangalas, J.Freijah, C.O'Sullivan, A.Hastie, W.McCabe, W.Patton, B.Ridgeway, L.Slade, C.Hall, K.Sanchez, R.Hardeman, E.Read, J.Callinan, R.Sanders. (there are more in this group, but I thought I would round it out to 40)

GCS will clean up this draft period... They'll have a formidable list in a couple of years.