Derby/ Melbourne Cup tips

[harry_hawka]

Ok, we're down to the business end of the Spring now, it's time to hit Flemington for the great 4 days of Australian racing.

As of monday, who will win the Derby? And who will Trifecta the Melbourne Cup?

Obviously it all depends on conditions closer to the race, however if you had to bet now who would your money be on?

Harry's tips:

Derby: Kempinsky

Melbourne Cup:

1. Makybe Diva
2. Millstreet!!
3. Frightening

Roughie: Outside of Millstreet, it's Pentastic.

 

[rumply]

Derby: Kempinsky - how can you go past him after saturdays effort - wont be getting mine at $3.20 though!


Melbourne Cup:

1. Mummify - brilliant caul cup effort - trainer knows how to win the double.

2. Frightening - bart to just miss.

3. Aint Seen Nothin - hoping to get back my caul cup bet & a bit more when she storms home.


now i just hope that 1 out of the 3 actually starts!!

 

[JLC]

For the Derby its Kempinsky and Noble Red

Melbourne Cup im sticking with Distinctly Secret, County Tyrone, Makybe Diva and i will see how Frightening goes in the Mckinnon as if it does well there and drops weight for Melb Cup then its a serious contender. However i dont like Shane Dye being on board.

jlc

 

[juddy03]

Derby: Elvstroem: How can you go past it? Didn't get touched in the straight on Saturday, while Kempinsky was whipped to get it going.. Hopefully everyone gets on Kempinsky so i get value..

Melb. Cup: Makybe Diva, Pentastic & Frightening

 

[Pigskin]

reserving all rights to change all thoughts at the end of the week

its way too early to finalise Melb Cup - remember that 2 of the very best trials for it haven't even had their field finalised as of yet - the weather is very important also

i haven't done the video's from Cox Plate day as of yet but on face value I'm worried about the AAMI Vase form for the derby

a few points though - Derby

I think you'll get every bit of $3.20 about Kempinsky and more

expecting Noble Red to be the big shortener and maybe even start favourite, and am worried that Elvstroem/Kempinsky had a gut-buster on the weekend - best roughie without a doubt, Our Bahare

Face Value no chance - its just an opinion

Expect Cannyopra to improve significantly because the way he was ridden in the Vase was just plain wrong, not sure if good enough to figure still

a few thoughts only - Cup

favourites are not my cup of tea (happy to admit being very wrong CC)

happy to risk Frightening, trainer will make him way under the odds

need to try to remain objective until at least after Saturday, but my pick atm is Hugs Dancer without a doubt - run of the race Caulfield Cup imho

i love roughies in races like this and believe there to be a number of them representing good value

Piachay, Debben, She's Archie

if Mamool blows the field away, I'll be a big loser - but he could

more later in the week on the cup and after Saturday

cheers

Oink !

 

[MoffOnTou]

Elvestrom into Strasbourg

More you put in the more you get out

Cheers,
Moffo

 

[ImCheatingToWin]

Was Casual Pass paid up today i missed the news, if so he is my tip for the derby??????????/

do my Melbourne cup tips later in the week

 

[Catman]

Derby - Kempinsky.....just. Wouldn't surprise me if Elvstroem won either.

Cup - Where do I start?

From....

Makybe Diva
Zagalia
Frightening
Mummify
Honor Babe
Mr. Prudent
She's Archie for some value. Her Geelong Cup run was a cracker. Doubt on the strength of it though.

 

[Hollypig]

Just do a little study on the wetties before plunking your hard earned. Melbournes weather forecast does'nt look too flash for the week & beyond.
We were supposed to get rain for eight hours last night, but only 1.4mm was recorded, but the guts of it looked headed for the south - east.

G'luk on everybodys selections. for mine, Face Value for the Derby.
The two from Saturday ran enourmous, it may tell on them, especially if the track comes up slow or worse.
Melbourne Cup atm is just too far away for me. Hoping for Yakama to make it, then run well, but still focusing on the weather.

 

[sethlad]

Early thoughts are often the best so here goes:

Derby:
Apart from last year,the more brilliant 3yo's dont win this.How many times have the Sky Height's & Tie the Knot's found 1 better.Having said that,the AAMI Vase is usually the formline.

Noble Red has been aimed at this,should be strong at the 2500.
Penitentiary is untapped,another with no distance doubts.
Face Value is a smart,consistent trier.Not one of this board's faves but you'd love to own him.

The 2 faves look quality but wont be getting any of mine at the odds.

Cup:
Really warming to Makybe Diva,obviously the C.Cup form must be highly regarded.Except for Grey Song.Also have to respect Zagalia's Cox Plate effort. IMO WFA form is a must for MC now.
Mamool,they are due.

There's a few right in the market that IMO cant win
Grey Song
Frightening
Mr Prudent
Honour Babe

Roughies (winning chance,ie good enough to win)
Millstreet
Pentastic
Aint Seen Nothing

Nothing else a genuine winning hope.

Seth.

 

[ViperV10]

I don't know a lot about Horse Racing, and I don't pretend to know a lot. There is one thing though...

I haven't tipped a cup winner since Saintly....and I pretty much always tip one of the Godolphin horses that is hyped up as being great. This horse I tip then proceeds to finish no greater than 18th. Usually Frankie Dettori is riding it.

Therefore my conclusion is: Don't tip Mamool (sp?) or the horse Frankie is riding (and if that is Mamool...then that is even more reason to listen to me).

Once again my tipping for the cup leaves a lot to be desired...and I have tipped Mamool. I have no idea who else is in the race by the way so I can't give my trifecta.

 

[The Spornstar]

Sticking with Mummify.

 

[ImCheatingToWin]

Can see absolutley no reason to get off Zagalia at this stage, her form all through the spring has been great.

IMO the run in the Caulfield cup was far better than the run in the cox plate, they went mad out front in that and she just had to run on as she did made up heaps of ground.

Looks like she will run the 3200 strongly and if she is close enough and gets galloping room about 300 from home i can see her finishing all over the top of them.

Cant comment on Mamool could win by lengths could be another international plodder will probably throw it in quinella and trifectas to be safe

Mummify- really good horse great win in the Caulfield cup and no reason to think wont run well next Tuesday.

Hugs Dancer's run in the Caulfield cup was huge, covered a huge ammount of ground yet still continued to be close enough at the finish, the 3200 looks ideal

frightening looks to have been trained to the minute for the race by a master trainer wouldn't have considered it a few weeks back but last 2 winds have been very impressive

will be having something on Pentastic at value will be over $20 on the tote and very much worth a bet


1st Zagalia

2nd Hugs Dancer

3rd Frightening

4th Mummify

But i wouldn't be suprised if Mamool came out and brained them so be takening them all in quinellas and Trifectas

 

[Lockyer24]

Derby...Elvstroem will get his revenge

Melb Cup...Mummify..Cups double..although Im wary of Frightening now

 

[Bomber12]

Originally posted by juddy03
Derby: Elvstroem: How can you go past it? Didn't get touched in the straight on Saturday, while Kempinsky was whipped to get it going.. Hopefully everyone gets on Kempinsky so i get value..

Melb. Cup: Makybe Diva, Pentastic & Frightening

Yeh i agree, jockey didn't touch it, trainer says he's in good nick, valued the run last ride, and is in absolute peak form for the weekend. He will be my major punt for the day

 

[diesel]

Elvestroem - Yakama

 

[JLC]

Lonhro didnt get touched with the whip in any of the lead up races and still lost. Sometimes that can be misleading not using the whip.

jlc

 

[Pigskin]

Originally posted by Pigskin

a few points though - Derby

I think you'll get every bit of $3.20 about Kempinsky and more

expecting Noble Red to be the big shortener and maybe even start favourite, and am worried that Elvstroem/Kempinsky had a gut-buster on the weekend - best roughie without a doubt, Our Bahare

latest market is

Kempinsky $3.40 (out 20c)
Elvstroem $3.40 (out 20c)
Noble Red $4.60 (in 40c)

shock horror

Oink !

 

[bozza]

Derby: Noble Red

Cup Top 5
Makybe Diva - how will she not be in the finish? Will win.
Mamool
Mr Prudent
Frightening
Mummify

everything else no chance

 

[Pigskin]

Elvstroem - $3.25
Kempinsky - $3.60
Noble Red - $4.20 well backed and coming in

you were warned

Oink !

 

[Davo75]

Derby/Melbourne Cup

I like Penitentiary in the VRC!!!
No confidence though, these 3 year old races are a nightmare....
I want to be on something that is going to pay handsomely if it arrives.

Thought 2 months ago that Makybe Diva was the one in the Cup, have no reason to change my mind, maybe Im scared to, chances only enhanced if the weather plays its part.

So

1. Makybe Diva
2. Mr Prudent
3. Distinctly Secret

- Not going to praise or bag any of the O/S runners, although the news that "Magic" is riding Millstreet makes me lean to it as the best chance from offshore.

Like most other years, I believe there are 7,8,9,10 genuine chances......

Can only dismiss the 2 runners who gain entry from winning(&running 2nd) in the SAAB tomorrow at Flemington, Charity cases.

 

[Pieman7]

Re: Derby/Melbourne Cup

Originally posted by Davo75


Can only dismiss the 2 runners who gain entry from winning(&running 2nd) in the SAAB tomorrow at Flemington, Charity cases.

Didn't Brew come through the SAAB a couple of years ago?

I'm staying away from the Derby today except in the Quaddie, just too tough and wide open. Best bet for the day is Lord Volksraad in the last.

 

[Pigskin]

well I went like a busted arse today

hope others had more luck

Oink !

 

[ImCheatingToWin]

Re: Re: Derby/Melbourne Cup

Originally posted by Pieman7


Best bet for the day is Lord Volksraad in the last.

The cat claims another victim

 

[roostersgal4eva]

1. Mr Prudent - Two words: Damien Oliver!

2. Frighning - saw him race on caulfeid cup day (different race) and looked good

3 Pantastic - ditto bout yesterday's ride