Do Collingwood need to enter a rebuild phase?

[Robroy22]

It's not sustainable to get only 1 AFL standard player a year out of the draft. The Pies have bucked the trend by getting more years out of Pendles & Sidebottom, plus a generational F/S but it is going to come to an end soon.

Sure, you recruiting some cheap players but they are role players around the guns. The guns will retire soon, the balance will shift and the team will then drop off rapidly. Recruits then dry up too if you are bad for 2 years in a row and look like getting worse no matter who you are.

You lost a few soldiers this year to retirement or trades who would normally play a lot of games. I had a quick check, 66 games they played last year, that's basically 3 players who have to come from a group with no experience or the late draft picks this year. Jack Buller the only recruit and he played 9 last season for Sydney.

In comparison, Freo lost 14 games worth from last season and we have recruited a player in Judd McVee who played 17 and have a lot of good youth who are busting for games.

I think the Pies are in trouble as you will likely have more retirements to come and lose a similar 70+ games next season to replace without any replacements screaming out to be picked. If you get a decent run of injuries to your stars it could get ugly.

Don't wanna break it to you lad but the way team lists are structured across the comp these days if ANY club gets a "decent run of injuries" to their stars....it can get ugly for any team.

We'll miss Checkers and Coxy, and Will Hoskin Elliot (our mister fixit) of course but you have to give young KPF's some chance and we have them ready to go so we'll see how that all pans out. Funnily enough we get criticised for NOT playing the youth and then get criticised when we do.....hmmmm? Maybe some folk just wanna see us fall?

 

[Robroy22]

The thread topic: “Is Collingwood’s strategy of not bringing in quality youth going to work in the FUTURE?”
Collingwood supporters: “Haha checkmate idiot, we'll be right coz' we’re fine right NOW!”

Yeah, cheers lads, brilliant stuff.
Because list management is clearly about the present only.
Aging core? Irrelevant. Succession planning? Optional. Time itself? A social construct.

West Coast and North both thought they wer going along fine as well. They just woke up one day repeatedly finishing bottom two because… vibes?

But hey, if the club keeps trading away picks for 28-year-olds and hoping genetics outrun the calendar, what could possibly go wrong? I’m sure the laws of ageing will graciously pause for Fly McRae.

Sorry Sir Perc, but I for one can't think how we're forced to make multiple changes every year (just like your team) and we do it slightly differently (almost like another team from down the highway to the south west)....but BUT...we're wrong and you're right?

If the AFL was an under 19 comp....maybe we'd be forced to do it your way....but since it's not...maybe our way works too?

 

[Fadge]

This sounds like WC fans in 2021 talking about everyone writing them off in 2017. It will then shift to "We never stay down for long" and before you know if you've turned into North and you then turn into Essendon since you can still pay overs for some recruits as they will come for the big lights.

Or Collingwood in 2013.

But, but, but 'You had Pendlebury to build around'.

Daicos > Pendlebury.

 

[Robroy22]

Quietly hopeful that HH will have a breakout year. Reef is a longshot but one with massive potential.

Bottom line for me is the 2021 version of this thread which iirc had us rebuilding and missing finals for 4-5 years.

I have confidence we can fart higher than our arses again.

Harvs I'll give ya, Reef's on his last shot and probably should be trying to fill the WHE spot that's going begging rather than masquerading as a tall defender!

 

[Cyclops]

The thread topic: “Is Collingwood’s strategy of not bringing in quality youth going to work in the FUTURE?”
Collingwood supporters: “Haha checkmate idiot, we'll be right coz' we’re fine right NOW!”

Yeah, cheers lads, brilliant stuff.
Because list management is clearly about the present only.
Aging core? Irrelevant. Succession planning? Optional. Time itself? A social construct.

West Coast and North both thought they wer going along fine as well. They just woke up one day repeatedly finishing bottom two because… vibes?

But hey, if the club keeps trading away picks for 28-year-olds and hoping genetics outrun the calendar, what could possibly go wrong? I’m sure the laws of ageing will graciously pause for Fly McRae.

Yes but "Collingwood must fail because West Coast won a lucky flag in 2018 and North are poor" is an equally terrible argument. West Coast had a very honest team in 2018 that crunched us in a very professional way in the grand final despite our dream start, but lets not pretend they were the best side that year, or even close. It wasn't the strongest year ever, unlike 2023 which had many powerful sides smashing each other all the way up to a very close fought grand final.

Pies have copied Geelong in fishing for non standard recruits (Blicavs, Cox) trade in stars (Howe, Danger) keeping oldies (ditto) and having luck with f/s. Frankly they are better at it but we aren't shaming ourselves.

We were old and bereft of young talent in 2021 after the fire sale saw out prime middle group ravaged and a contract cloud over our kingpin Grundy compounded by a season ending injury early in 2022.

Our off field wealth and soft cap elasticity means we have the best fitness mob going around. Our ability to unearth mid season draft role players in pretty awesome too.

We're nothing like North, and frankly we have more advantages than the eagles and may be richer then them too.

So try another tune.

 

[Purple Suit]

Or Collingwood in 2013.

But, but, but 'You had Pendlebury to build around'.

Daicos > Pendlebury.

That was back when life was easier for the big clubs. The bottom cycle was 3 years max. You still went 4 years out of finals.

It's different now and the turn around is a lot longer with the academies sucking up all the talent.

 

[Fadge]

That was back when life was easier for the big clubs. The bottom cycle was 3 years max.

It's different now and the turn around is a lot longer with the academies sucking up all the talent.

What's a 'bottom cycle'?

 

[Purple Suit]

What's a 'bottom cycle'?

Pies 2014-2017

This time you've really cooked it hard though instead of refreshing on the run.

 

[timokane]

No quite thinking around circa 2028 for the rebuild.

Still refreshing on the run until then.

Still 2 decent years.

 

[Fadge]

Pies 2014-2017

This time you've really cooked it hard though instead of refreshing on the run.

Bottomed out at a 9 win season, with 4 years between finals appearances, 5 years without a Preliminary Final appearance, 6 years without a Grand Final appearance.

Sounds terrible.

IF it happens.

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

I don’t think the Pies have any choice but to try and patch things together on the run rather than rebuild as the drafts going forward will be so compromised due to Tassie. Given pies unlikely to finish last they wouldnt get pick 1 to build a rebuild around like west coast this year and Richmond last year.
I do think Pies won’t play finals this year though as their team is worse post draft and trade period as well as retirements.

 

[Trav 20]

Yep your clearly right. We have turned over half the team in 4 years and we still suck.

Checks finishes over the years that McCrae has been coach
2022 4th
2023 1st
2024 9th
2025 4th

Serious though if you check drafting usually only about 1 in 3 players usually make it as an AFL player and it's a bit early to dismiss the players you have mentioned because it has been very hard to get a spot in our team. They will get more of an opportunity this year.

I'm not talking past tense. Your previous ladder finishes are irrelevant when assessing your list in 2026.

1 in 3 draft players making it is very vague. Where are these stats from ? What round draft picks ? Later picks sure.

What about top 40 draft picks ? Are they one in three ?

 

[Robroy22]

I don’t think the Pies have any choice but to try and patch things together on the run rather than rebuild as the drafts going forward will be so compromised due to Tassie. Given pies unlikely to finish last they wouldnt get pick 1 to build a rebuild around like west coast this year and Richmond last year.
I do think Pies won’t play finals this year though as their team is worse post draft and trade period as well as retirements.

That's a bit sad considering we're the only side that even seems to bother the Brions at all

 

[bzparkes]

The thread topic: “Is Collingwood’s strategy of not bringing in quality youth going to work in the FUTURE?”
Collingwood supporters: “Haha checkmate idiot, we'll be right coz' we’re fine right NOW!”

Yeah, cheers lads, brilliant stuff.
Because list management is clearly about the present only.
Aging core? Irrelevant. Succession planning? Optional. Time itself? A social construct.

West Coast and North both thought they wer going along fine as well. They just woke up one day repeatedly finishing bottom two because… vibes?

But hey, if the club keeps trading away picks for 28-year-olds and hoping genetics outrun the calendar, what could possibly go wrong? I’m sure the laws of ageing will graciously pause for Fly McRae.

Yep, I said that at the start of the year based on an AFL article about Collingwood's lack of young talent but if course, all they wanted to talk about was their current ladder position at the time, despite clearly writing that the concern is from next year onwards.

Power to them for squeezing a flag out of this mob, you'd take that in a heartbeat in all honesty.

All good things come to an end though and simply thinking you'll stay up because 'We're Collingwood' or 'Geelong do it' is if ignoring reality

Yep, Houston moved but he cost a lot and was very uninspiring this year. You'd think/hope he gets better but he also isn't getting younger.

No other big names of note have moved there recently, they've all been b-graders at best. Couple that with not much coming through beneath the senior side and that spells incoming rebuild.

Geelong, to their credit, managed to bring in A graders and whilst they may be getting on in age, have still managed to pick the eyes out of the draft and have a really good young cohort coming through. They've also stuck to their guns and not overpaid at the trade table and have protected their draft capital doing so, much to the chagrin of opposition supporters.

Collingwood may not plumb the depths like West Coast, Richmond and North but their list management strategy has them headed for purgatory for quite some time.

 

[bzparkes]

Pies have copied Geelong in fishing for non standard recruits (Blicavs, Cox) trade in stars (Howe, Danger) keeping oldies (ditto) and having luck with f/s. Frankly they are better at it but we aren't shaming ourselves.

Collingwood's current strategy is absolutely nothing like Geelong's.

Geelong doesn't ignore the draft and regularly brings young players into the team.

Apart from not being able to address the ruck, their current midfield has been completely rejuvenated from just a couple of years ago.

Contrast that with Collingwood, who are rolling out Naicos, supported by Sidebottom and Pendlebury still. Long makes a few cameos and has been a good moneyball pickup but unless some of their developing players, who are certainly no longer kids, actually get opportunities to develop, it's looking dire once Sidebottom and Pendlebury pull the plug and they're already slowing down a fair bit.

Geelong have done a good job phasing out Danger from being the main man because they've had options who are better in the main roles, allowing him to move around as required.

Collingwood haven't been able to do that because there's nothing coming from below and McRae isn't interested in giving opportunity to those players anyway.

 

[Robertio]

What's a 'bottom cycle'?

Some call it the cliff.

 

[Robertio]

Yep, I said that at the start of the year based on an AFL article about Collingwood's lack of young talent but if course, all they wanted to talk about was their current ladder position at the time, despite clearly writing that the concern is from next year onwards.

Power to them for squeezing a flag out of this mob, you'd take that in a heartbeat in all honesty.

All good things come to an end though and simply thinking you'll stay up because 'We're Collingwood' or 'Geelong do it' is if ignoring reality

Yep, Houston moved but he cost a lot and was very uninspiring this year. You'd think/hope he gets better but he also isn't getting younger.

No other big names of note have moved there recently, they've all been b-graders at best. Couple that with not much coming through beneath the senior side and that spells incoming rebuild.

Geelong, to their credit, managed to bring in A graders and whilst they may be getting on in age, have still managed to pick the eyes out of the draft and have a really good young cohort coming through. They've also stuck to their guns and not overpaid at the trade table and have protected their draft capital doing so, much to the chagrin of opposition supporters.

Collingwood may not plumb the depths like West Coast, Richmond and North but their list management strategy has them headed for purgatory for quite some time.

Everyone can see it except the Pie supporters.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Geelong have done a good job phasing out Danger from being the main man

If only they hadn't phased him out of the GF

 

[Cyclops]

Collingwood's current strategy is absolutely nothing like Geelong's.

Geelong doesn't ignore the draft and regularly brings young players into the team.

Apart from not being able to address the ruck, their current midfield has been completely rejuvenated from just a couple of years ago.

Contrast that with Collingwood, who are rolling out Naicos, supported by Sidebottom and Pendlebury still. Long makes a few cameos and has been a good moneyball pickup but unless some of their developing players, who are certainly no longer kids, actually get opportunities to develop, it's looking dire once Sidebottom and Pendlebury pull the plug and they're already slowing down a fair bit.

Geelong have done a good job phasing out Danger from being the main man because they've had options who are better in the main roles, allowing him to move around as required.

Collingwood haven't been able to do that because there's nothing coming from below and McRae isn't interested in giving opportunity to those players anyway.

So we're copying Geelong, not synchronising with them.

We are bringing on kids, two hopefuls copped season ending injuries and others have been stalled in the 2s by the older blokes.

Maybe this means none of them will ever be any good but the reasons they haven't come on isn't as much about their inadequacy as the adequacy of the mid season pick ups (i think we've traded two out for non footy reasons and both are going ok).

We're not leaking smoke yet. The cliff seems to keep moving, coz we've been sprinting past the warning signs for four years.

 

[Robroy22]

Everyone can see it except the Pie supporters.

Everyone (that wants it to happen) can see it except the Pie supporters.

There, fixed it for ya.

 

[Fadge]

Some call it the cliff.

What's a 'cliff'?

 

[bzparkes]

So we're copying Geelong, not synchronising with them.

We are bringing on kids, two hopefuls copped season ending injuries and others have been stalled in the 2s by the older blokes.

Maybe this means none of them will ever be any good but the reasons they haven't come on isn't as much about their inadequacy as the adequacy of the mid season pick ups (i think we've traded two out for non footy reasons and both are going ok).

We're not leaking smoke yet. The cliff seems to keep moving, coz we've been sprinting past the warning signs for four years.

What kids?

From 2020, it hasn't exactly gone exceedingly well.

2020 - Shocker year
ND:
Ollie Henry - Gone
Fin Macrae - Gone
Reef McInnes - Jury's out
Caleb Poulter - Gone
Liam McMahon - Gone
Rookie:
Jack Ginnivan - Pick of the lot but gone

2021 - Another terrible year, saved only by Naicos
MSD:
Ash Johnson - Gone
Aiden Begg - Gone
ND:
Arlo Draper - Gone
Cooper Murley - Gone
Harvey Harrison - Showed a bit in '24 before an untimely ACL. Jury's out
Rookie:
Charlie Dean - Gone
Isaac Chugg - Gone

2022 - Another mediocre result
ND:
Ed Allan - Looks ok but jury still out
Jakob Ryan - 1 game to his name. Jury still out
Joe Richards - Gone
Cooper Murley made some kind of comeback? - Gone anyway

2023 - Slim draft pickings due to trades
ND:
Harry DeMattia - Yet to debut. Jury out.
Tew Jiath - Played 1 game. Jury out
Cat B:
Wil Parker - Ok for a Cat B player

2024 - Entered the draft late again due to Houston trade
MSD - Iliro Smit - Development player. Too soon to call
Ned Long - Win
ND(all late picks):
Joel Cochran - Successful bid Sydney academy. Too soon to call
Charlie West - Too soon to call
William Hayes - Again, too soon to call

2025 - Entered draft late again due to Houston trade
MSD:
Roan Steele
ND:
Tyan Prindable - Brisbane academy, elected not to match
Sam Swadling - Too soon to call
Zac McCarthy - Too soon to call
Angus Anderson - To soon to call
Pre-listed rookies:
Jai Saxana - To soon to call



So to date, from the 2020 ND to this year, you've had 3 players you could count as wins. One of the was a father/son(Naicos) and 2 were rookie picks, of which one came from Hawthorn and the other went to Hawthorn.

Obviously too early to call '24/'25 and '23 isn't showing much to date.

So where's this 'young' talent coming from that'll take over from your senior players?

There's a reason Pendles and Sidebottom will probably play until they're 40+.

In fact, the further back you go, the worse it gets

 

[Robroy22]

So successful clubs (I take it you mean like North and WCE, Melb, ) are based on their youth....the kind you get from finishing at the bottom end of the ladder.

What part do the structural pieces play? What about the experienced role players? How many of those do these successful sides need?

You know, the rucks, key possie players (we currently have 3 players in those positions for the next 3-5 years that are premiership players and the leaders)

We're under no misconceptions as to the finite length of AFL careers but the reason that Pendles, Elliot, Sidey, Howe et al are still demanding positions is because they've maintained their physical attributes and their game sense for so long....our medical staff have been outstanding during the McCrae era and blokes just seem to be getting better. Below them though we've had youngsters like Allen, McCrae (funnily enough he's just been picked up by the WCE....isn't he too old?), Harrison (sadly injured) and McCreery. We also have 3-4 kids waiting in line for Howe's spot but he just keeps beating his opponents....what can you do???? Jamie Elliot just had a career best season (as did Cameron) and they're both old!

OMG.....this is catastrophic.

 

[bzparkes]

So successful clubs (I take it you mean like North and WCE, Melb, ) are based on their youth....the kind you get from finishing at the bottom end of the ladder.

What part do the structural pieces play? What about the experienced role players? How many of those do these successful sides need?

You know, the rucks, key possie players (we currently have 3 players in those positions for the next 3-5 years that are premiership players and the leaders)

We're under no misconceptions as to the finite length of AFL careers but the reason that Pendles, Elliot, Sidey, Howe et al are still demanding positions is because they've maintained their physical attributes and their game sense for so long....our medical staff have been outstanding during the McCrae era and blokes just seem to be getting better. Below them though we've had youngsters like Allen, McCrae (funnily enough he's just been picked up by the WCE....isn't he too old?), Harrison (sadly injured) and McCreery. We also have 3-4 kids waiting in line for Howe's spot but he just keeps beating his opponents....what can you do???? Jamie Elliot just had a career best season (as did Cameron) and they're both old!

OMG.....this is catastrophic.

What's catastrophic is that you've managed to find 1 regular player in 4 drafts(Naicos).

This is exactly what happened to WCE at the same time and look what happened?

The only difference being that Collingwood barely travel, so are able to manage their players better and they don't suffer the rigours of reduced recovery and training sessions that WCE do.

Good for them but it's the only reason their senior mob can hang on like they currently are.

it should be frightening there's nobody putting pressure on almost cooked older blokes.

Once they're gone, there's no floor beneath them.

 

[VicBased]

Collingwood will be fine. 2026 they will bring in some stars and pay them a motza, exceed the salary cap while the AFL will turn a blind eye because you know, they are the biggest moneyspinners and the AFL need them