Do Collingwood need to enter a rebuild phase?

[HeathySure]

One day people will realise that the draft has nothing to do with success.

 

[bzparkes]

One day people will realise that the draft has nothing to do with success.

Your most important players came via the draft FFS. Most clueless thing in this thread anyone's said.

 

[Robroy22]

What's catastrophic is that you've managed to find 1 regular player in 4 drafts(Naicos).

This is exactly what happened to WCE at the same time and look what happened?

The only difference being that Collingwood barely travel, so are able to manage their players better and they don't suffer the rigours of reduced recovery and training sessions that WCE do.

Good for them but it's the only reason their senior mob can hang on like they currently are.

it should be frightening there's nobody putting pressure on almost cooked older blokes.

Once they're gone, there's no floor beneath them.

And sides that have had all the draft picks have continued to play for spoons.....

WCE's were once a powerful AFL club (When Malthouse and then Worsfold had them breathing fire) but the AFL treats them like they treat us. The AFL thinks big clubs can fight for scraps whilst their latest "darlings" (Sun's and Lions) get all the cream because they know that a little failure won't hurt our (and therefore their BOTTOM lines). They know that even if WCE and Pies or Blues or Dons are down for a while, their supporters will still turn up, still buy memberships and streaming services and still cash up the AFL to allow it to pump funds into its new toys.

I know you want us to fail like yours and others have (for a while) but in the end WCE's and the other cashed up clubs will regain their positions of power. Geelong has shown the AFL that you can stay competitive by maintaining and remodelling your list on the run and I believe that full "re-builds" will be a thing of the past barring catastrophies.

Here's to a better and more even competition (crikey how would that be?)
One where the draw and the draft are not so constrained by the AFL's greed.

 

[Robroy22]

Your most important players came via the draft FFS. Most clueless thing in this thread anyone's said.

20 or so years ago! You've all had plenty of great picks and players in that time also.

 

[bzparkes]

20 or so years ago! You've all had plenty of great picks and players in that time also.

Yes exactly, they were drafted before your last flag 15 years ago, that's the exact issue. They're still amongst your most important players, with nothing coming beneath them.

Where are you magically going to find this 'youth' from when your coach keeps trading out of the first round?

Cant trade for them, because you don't have the currency.

Cant draft them because you don't have the picks.

Need to wait until free agency but other clubs will look far more appealing with their list demographic by then.

Where's the list replenishment actually going to come from?

 

[bzparkes]

And sides that have had all the draft picks have continued to play for spoons.....

WCE's were once a powerful AFL club (When Malthouse and then Worsfold had them breathing fire) but the AFL treats them like they treat us. The AFL thinks big clubs can fight for scraps whilst their latest "darlings" (Sun's and Lions) get all the cream because they know that a little failure won't hurt our (and therefore their BOTTOM lines). They know that even if WCE and Pies or Blues or Dons are down for a while, their supporters will still turn up, still buy memberships and streaming services and still cash up the AFL to allow it to pump funds into its new toys.

I know you want us to fail like yours and others have (for a while) but in the end WCE's and the other cashed up clubs will regain their positions of power. Geelong has shown the AFL that you can stay competitive by maintaining and remodelling your list on the run and I believe that full "re-builds" will be a thing of the past barring catastrophies.

Here's to a better and more even competition (crikey how would that be?)
One where the draw and the draft are not so constrained by the AFL's greed.

Stop pointing to Geelong, they don't trade away entire drafts for middling players from other teams.

They paid big draft capital for Danger and Cameron but that's pretty much it.

The rest of it has been very savvy drafting of mature players with later picks and being shrewd at the trade table for players like Henry(still not that great) and Smith by not buckling and paying more than they're prepared to.

They've also consistently brought in young talent and have probably the best development program in the entire AFL.

Collingwood isn't even remotely close to Geelong, it's embarrassing to think they are similar in any way, shape or form.

 

[Robroy22]

Yes exactly, they were drafted before your last flag 15 years ago, that's the exact issue. They're still amongst your most important players, with nothing coming beneath them.

Where are you magically going to find this 'youth' from when your coach keeps trading out of the first round?

Cant trade for them, because you don't have the currency.

Cant draft them because you don't have the picks.

Need to wait until free agency but other clubs will look far more appealing with their list demographic by then.

Where's the list replenishment actually going to come from?

So, we've had these guys for 20 seasons or so....but nothing coming under them for all that time according to you....and in their careers we've built two really successful sides and also missed finals for 4-5 years. It's OK....we've done it before, we'll do it again. But we've been hearing this same "death knell" from oppo supporters for so many years now that we've sorta grown immune to it. We can see how our club moves forward, we trust our decision makers, we enjoy watching our team/s play wherever they are. And we've seen enough of the kids pushing for selection to know we've still got some excitement to come for a few years yet.

Sorry to disagree with you all. But....

 

[bzparkes]

So, we've had these guys for 20 seasons or so....but nothing coming under them for all that time according to you....and in their careers we've built two really successful sides and also missed finals for 4-5 years. It's OK....we've done it before, we'll do it again. But we've been hearing this same "death knell" from oppo supporters for so many years now that we've sorta grown immune to it. We can see how our club moves forward, we trust our decision makers, we enjoy watching our team/s play wherever they are. And we've seen enough of the kids pushing for selection to know we've still got some excitement to come for a few years yet.

Sorry to disagree with you all. But....

If your club could 'do it again', they wouldn't be relying on blokes they carried from 20 years ago to carry your side. They'd have been on the list for a long time already.

You've had one good player drafted this decade and his name is Nick Daicos.

The rest are all failures, including the 3 first rounders in 2020, barely been exposed from the 2023 draft, or late picks from the last 2 drafts, which is too early to call.

You are high on copium if you think you're going to find the next Pendlebury and Sidebottom with picks in the 40s.

West coast had a similar strike rate from '18-'21 and the club's a complete mess because of it.

 

[Purple Suit]

So, we've had these guys for 20 seasons or so....but nothing coming under them for all that time according to you....and in their careers we've built two really successful sides and also missed finals for 4-5 years. It's OK....we've done it before, we'll do it again. But we've been hearing this same "death knell" from oppo supporters for so many years now that we've sorta grown immune to it. We can see how our club moves forward, we trust our decision makers, we enjoy watching our team/s play wherever they are. And we've seen enough of the kids pushing for selection to know we've still got some excitement to come for a few years yet.

Sorry to disagree with you all. But....

This is pretty funny. You’re arguing with a WC supporter who thought the same thing in 2021 about their club. Richmond were saying it in 2023.

Not playing any kids because they can’t get past oldies at training is a window into their quality. Now requiring them to step up is like jumping out of a plane with an untested parachute, it doesn’t end well.

 

[Robroy22]

Stop pointing to Geelong, they don't trade away entire drafts for middling players from other teams.

They paid big draft capital for Danger and Cameron but that's pretty much it.

The rest of it has been very savvy drafting of mature players with later picks and being shrewd at the trade table for players like Henry(still not that great) and Smith by not buckling and paying more than they're prepared to.

They've also consistently brought in young talent and have probably the best development program in the entire AFL.

Collingwood isn't even remotely close to Geelong, it's embarrassing to think they are similar in any way, shape or form.

I've actually worked in the Geelong program for 5 years ( and yes they know my allegiences...so ) and I'll correct you if you don't mind. Geelong didn't do anything to get Danger. Patrick and his management organised the entire thing, there was never any chance of him seeking any other team and it was only Patrick's insistence that Adelaide be sufficiently recompensed that led to the "draft capital" you described being paid to Adelaide. Jezza was a need which they paid handsomely for and as for "shrewd" trade table tactics...Ollie Henry's move was orchestrated by the club through his management mid season when he refused to sign an extension at the Pies. That "tactic" devised by the GFC to use the "go home factor" for all ex Falcons has led to the AFL now making it mandatory for top 10 picks to stay for at least 3 years.

So, in my time at the Cats they've drafted Max Holmes as an outlier to match Nick Daicos. They have had luck with their Irish players BUT their single biggest advantage is their local network which regularly nets them "sleepers" as well as their Falcon's youngsters.

If memory serves me right the 2022 Premiership Cats had:

• three sleepers (Stewart, Blicavs, Miers)
• two Irishmen
• two father / sons
• seven players traded for

And only one high draft pick that they themselves chose (Selwood)

And since then.... since they won that flag, they've made finals 2/3 years, lost or moved on seven of these players and drafted Dempsey, Mannah and Humphries and brought in Bailey Smith

In the same period, Collingwood has won a flag, made finals, lost or moved on seven of its Premiership team and drafted Jaith, Smit, Long, West, Hayes and Steele. They've also brought in Houston, Schultz, Perryman, Sullivan et al.

So....both clubs in that same period have won a flag, stayed finals relevant, moved on 7 players and drafted young players as well as topping up with imports.

Collingwood IS remotely close to Geelong in its tactics in this regard. Sorry.

 

[Robroy22]

This is pretty funny. You’re arguing with a WC supporter who thought the same thing in 2021 about their club. Richmond were saying it in 2023.

Not playing any kids because they can’t get past oldies at training is a window into their quality. Now requiring them to step up is like jumping out of a plane with an untested parachute, it doesn’t end well.

Says the person who's team is only JUST coming into its own after being largely inconspicuous for a decade?

 

[bzparkes]

I've actually worked in the Geelong program for 5 years ( and yes they know my allegiences...so ) and I'll correct you if you don't mind. Geelong didn't do anything to get Danger. Patrick and his management organised the entire thing, there was never any chance of him seeking any other team and it was only Patrick's insistence that Adelaide be sufficiently recompensed that led to the "draft capital" you described being paid to Adelaide. Jezza was a need which they paid handsomely for and as for "shrewd" trade table tactics...Ollie Henry's move was orchestrated by the club through his management mid season when he refused to sign an extension at the Pies. That "tactic" devised by the GFC to use the "go home factor" for all ex Falcons has led to the AFL now making it mandatory for top 10 picks to stay for at least 3 years.

Ok, so they got those 3 players, like I said. The circumstances are irrelevant.

As an aside, which Falcons players ran home after their 2 years? Ollie Henry? Can't think of any others, tbh. That rule was also brought in the year after JHF ran home

So, in my time at the Cats they've drafted Max Holmes as an outlier to match Nick Daicos. They have had luck with their Irish players BUT their single biggest advantage is their local network which regularly nets them "sleepers" as well as their Falcon's youngsters.

If memory serves me right the 2022 Premiership Cats had:

• three sleepers (Stewart, Blicavs, Miers)
• two Irishmen
• two father / sons
• seven players traded for

And only one high draft pick that they themselves chose (Selwood)

And since then.... since they won that flag, they've made finals 2/3 years, lost or moved on seven of these players and drafted Dempsey, Mannah and Humphries and brought in Bailey Smith

In the same period, Collingwood has won a flag, made finals, lost or moved on seven of its Premiership team and drafted Jaith, Smit, Long, West, Hayes and Steele. They've also brought in Houston, Schultz, Perryman, Sullivan et al.

So....both clubs in that same period have won a flag, stayed finals relevant, moved on 7 players and drafted young players as well as topping up with imports.

Collingwood IS remotely close to Geelong in its tactics in this regard. Sorry.

Collingwood aren't remotely close at all, sorry. One just needs to look at the state of each list and the current draft capital to recognise this.

Not a single draftee since Daicos looks like a player who's going to have any significant impact for the Collingwood football club in the future but of course we wouldn't know, because either McRae doesn't rate them enough to give them a proper run at AFL level, or they simply can't push old blokes on their last legs out of the side. The fact that apart from DeMattia and Allan none were drafted in the first round means you are pinning your hopes on a relatively small chance those recent draftees at least become B-graders, let alone the massive unlikelihood any of them become legitimate stars.

Collingwood have actively made their future team worse every year since McRae joined because he's only focused on the present but their drafting prior to that was poor also. Personally, I expect him to pull a Hardwick once the list is properly munted and take a break to 'refresh' before applying for jobs at teams on the up who've sacked their rebuild coach and are looking for someone experienced to take the next step.

Their list profile is in a worse state than WCE was in 2021, the difference being WCE were continually smashed by injuries to their best players, so the poor drafting really shone through.

Who's going to kick goals for Collingwood next year for starters? McStay, who was dropped, and Charlie West? Not exactly looking like a premiership tall forward duo for starters and there's no gun mids coming through to replace Pendlebury and Sidebottom.

Is Collingwood going to rely on trying to bringing in mids from other teams? They'll only be able to do it with free agency in the next couple of years because they've traded their future away for a shot at the flag in 2025 & 2026.

Then what?

 

[bzparkes]

This is pretty funny. You’re arguing with a WC supporter who thought the same thing in 2021 about their club. Richmond were saying it in 2023.

Not playing any kids because they can’t get past oldies at training is a window into their quality. Now requiring them to step up is like jumping out of a plane with an untested parachute, it doesn’t end well.

Yep, we all thought exactly this and we all pointed to our past history of success/Geelong's system.

Clearly we were wrong and Collingwood is now following the exact same pattern.

 

[Purple Suit]

Says the person whose team is only JUST coming into its own after being largely inconspicuous for a decade?

Does that change my judgement? Please explain why?

Freo went six seasons without a finals win, Pies went 5. Big deal, we’re now on the opposite end of the contenders spectrum so if we check back in 5-10 years I can probably say the same thing.

 

[Erakor]

Put a fork in it, they are done.

Will probably try to top up for a couple more seasons, but won’t have success.

 

[Fadge]

bzparkes and Purple Suit - how would you guys have managed Collingwood's list differently if you were in charge, and when would you have done it?

Go.

 

[Fadge]

Does that change my judgement? Please explain why?

Freo went six seasons without a finals win, Pies went 5. Big deal, we’re now on the opposite end of the contenders spectrum so if we check back in 5-10 years I can probably say the same thing.

We are?

Because I'm pretty sure Collingwood contended (again) in 2025, and Freo didn't (again).....

Collingwood have contended for flags in three of the past four years, including winning one, whilst Freo haven't contended for a flag in a decade.

We might be 'on opposite ends of the contenders spectrum', but it's the polar opposite to what you're suggesting.

 

[Kappa]

I’ve assumed for about two years now that McRae had his eye towards the Tassie job, too perfectly lined up for him to ignore, he’ll inevitably flick the switch when the moment seems right.

So you assumed in your infinite wisdom that while preparing for the 2023 premiership McRae was secretly focused on his 2028 coaching move?

That's what you assumed?

That?

 

[daicosdemis]

This is a pretty simple equation. It's a bit like what goes up, must come down.

The draft isn't the total panacea in football list builds, but it has clearly got an important role.

From 2019 through to 2024 the following players have been drafted to Collingwood in the National Draft:

Rantall, Bianco, Ruscoe (all gone)
Henry (gone), Macrae (gone), McInnes, Poulter (gone), McMahon (gone), McCreery
Daicos, Draper (gone), Murley (gone), Harrison
Allan, Ryan, Richards (gone)
Demattia, Jiath (one game between them in 2 years)
Cochran, West, Hayes (three games between them in one year)

Ten of the 21 are gone.

Out of the 21 only 3 are regular players.

Only the typical Collingwood hybrid nuffie thinks this is sustainable and that they're not going to pay a massive price for this disaster very very soon.

And we traded in D. Cameron,Lipinski,Schulz,Hill,McCstay,Frampton,Mitchell,Perryman,Houston,Membrey.
Only a complete nuffie would think that there is only one way to do things.

 

[Chip Scab1]

What's a rebuild?

Is that what teams who can't build and maintain a competitive playing list do to sell hope to their members?

lol, it's where good clubs build a list to be able to compete with losers with lots of fans (for Australia).

Before you point fingers, you're a minnow compared to my club which has 8m fans, you have what, 2m? True minnow.

You also make $100m a year, we make £150m just selling one home grown player. You're a commercial minnow and a historically unsuccessful given you've only managed to win the same amount of flags as decrepit, broke Norf.

Imagine thinking your history is sooo much better than ours.

3:2... and we are much closer to #3 than you are to #4 (in the AFL) unless of course you count the flags that we couldn't compete in <1925.

Figures you would.

So what is it, 15:10? You won some in the VFL, We won some in the VFA. Considering your support, you're frauds - any way you wish to dice it. Basically England in a tuxedo.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

What kids?

From 2020, it hasn't exactly gone exceedingly well.

2020 - Shocker year
ND:
Ollie Henry - Gone
Fin Macrae - Gone
Reef McInnes - Jury's out
Caleb Poulter - Gone
Liam McMahon - Gone
Rookie:
Jack Ginnivan - Pick of the lot but gone

2021 - Another terrible year, saved only by Naicos
MSD:
Ash Johnson - Gone
Aiden Begg - Gone
ND:
Arlo Draper - Gone
Cooper Murley - Gone
Harvey Harrison - Showed a bit in '24 before an untimely ACL. Jury's out
Rookie:
Charlie Dean - Gone
Isaac Chugg - Gone

2022 - Another mediocre result
ND:
Ed Allan - Looks ok but jury still out
Jakob Ryan - 1 game to his name. Jury still out
Joe Richards - Gone
Cooper Murley made some kind of comeback? - Gone anyway

2023 - Slim draft pickings due to trades
ND:
Harry DeMattia - Yet to debut. Jury out.
Tew Jiath - Played 1 game. Jury out
Cat B:
Wil Parker - Ok for a Cat B player

2024 - Entered the draft late again due to Houston trade
MSD - Iliro Smit - Development player. Too soon to call
Ned Long - Win
ND(all late picks):
Joel Cochran - Successful bid Sydney academy. Too soon to call
Charlie West - Too soon to call
William Hayes - Again, too soon to call

2025 - Entered draft late again due to Houston trade
MSD:
Roan Steele
ND:
Tyan Prindable - Brisbane academy, elected not to match
Sam Swadling - Too soon to call
Zac McCarthy - Too soon to call
Angus Anderson - To soon to call
Pre-listed rookies:
Jai Saxana - To soon to call



So to date, from the 2020 ND to this year, you've had 3 players you could count as wins. One of the was a father/son(Naicos) and 2 were rookie picks, of which one came from Hawthorn and the other went to Hawthorn.

Obviously too early to call '24/'25 and '23 isn't showing much to date.

So where's this 'young' talent coming from that'll take over from your senior players?

There's a reason Pendles and Sidebottom will probably play until they're 40+.

In fact, the further back you go, the worse it gets

Missed McCreery in 2020 and L Sullivan in 2023/4 was added late as a rookie.

 

[Worm4]

Missed McCreery in 2020 and L Sullivan in 2023/4 was added late as a rookie.

Sullivan is 28 years old. Young by collingwood standards i guess

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Sullivan is 28 years old. Young by collingwood standards i guess

Just hitting his prime.

 

[doppleganger]

Sullivan is 28 years old. Young by collingwood standards i guess

True that.

But it again just shows that brining in a mature player, who was very strong at VFL level, can provide better return than the 18 year old kid.

You do well to get 50 games out of late national draft kids, let alone rookies etc.most are on the list for 3-4 years and then delisted.

Sullivan is an example of the Pies turning over our list, whilst remaining competitive. But yet supporters are focused on youth and developing for the future.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

I'm not talking past tense. Your previous ladder finishes are irrelevant when assessing your list in 2026.

1 in 3 draft players making it is very vague. Where are these stats from ? What round draft picks ? Later picks sure.

What about top 40 draft picks ? Are they one in three ?

It's a little hard to define "making it", but lets define it as playing over 100 games.
According to AI

• A general estimate: A broader analysis of all AFL draftees between 2000 and 2020 suggests that roughly 19% of players drafted will reach the 100-game milestone.
• A specific example: A Sydney Swans-specific analysis of all draftees from 1981–2020 found that 46 of 291 players played 100 or more games, which is approximately 15.8%.

It may not be accurate and there have been a few careers which were in their own way were good careers without playing 100 games or more. But overall most players struggle to get to that milestone.
Yes higher draft picks more commonly make that milestone.