Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[kirky]

Geelong are very beatable at GHMBA. It's not the fortress it once was.

Yes but given we haven’t beaten them there is 20+ years, you doubt we would do it in a final.

It is irrelevant anyhow as given crowd size (possibly 60k+) we would play at the G.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Geelong are very beatable at GHMBA. It's not the fortress it once was.

We keep getting outcoached against them though.

 

[1970crow]

Went from 4th to 5th on % over the weekend on my predictor .

 

[BRL121]

Went from 4th to 5th on % over the weekend on my predictor .

What are your predictions for the rest of our matches?

 

[1970crow]

And more stats on First Crack -

We are No 1 for contested marks

And contested mark differential is +66

Brisbane, Collingwood and Western Bulldogs are all negative on contested mark differential and Geelong is barely +ve.

We have the weapons but we can’t screw it up by having spuds in the side.

What Lions, Pies and Dogs having negative/0 contested marking differential should tell you is that it's not actually a particularly valuable stat on its own. The marks inside 50 differential is more important as it speaks to the quality of the ball movement and the forward line function. Having a lot of contested marks can mean that you just kick the ball to contests a lot whereas opposition may be hitting up leading targets or creating loose players that result in uncontested marks.

 

[1970crow]

What are your predictions for the rest of our matches?

I think what's happened is I would have had the Dogs/Swans game as a 50:50, so the Dogs have picked up an extra 2 points on the predictor and knock us out based on slightly better %.

Melbourne (h) - Win
Dogs (A) - Loss - maybe should be 50/50
Suns (h) - Win
Port (h) - Draw
Hawks (h) - win - Hawks have probably improved to the point I should have this as a draw
Eagles (a) - win
Pies 0h) - draw
Roos (a) - win

 

[Redline]

The Freo game was the only real stinker we've played this year, for the first half of that Geelong game we looked unplayable.

Wins cover over poor performances. We were ordinary in large parts of the Showdown, probably lucky to win. Port were just worse than us.

 

[SugarShane]

Wins cover over poor performances. We were ordinary in large parts of the Showdown, probably lucky to win. Port were just worse than us.

That's really the only requirement to win football games.

No team plays perfectly all game, every game. You just need to be better than your opponent for long enough. You don't even need to be good, just better than them.

 

[Redline]

That's really the only requirement to win football games.

No team plays perfectly all game, every game. You just need to be better than your opponent for long enough. You don't even need to be good, just better than them.

100% agree, you can lose and play well and win and be ordinary. There can be a mix.

I was just responding to the point someone made that we have played well in every match but the Freo game. I think for the Showdown we were poor for most of the game.

 

[Scorpus]

We only play 3 more away games this year and 2 of them are North and West Coast

 

[SugarShane]

We only play 3 more away games this year and 2 of them are North and West Coast

 

[Dangarman]

It would be tough to watch; but imagine finishing fourth and breaking the Collingwood hoodoo at the 'G twice in the finals!

Week 1 - Beat Collingwood at the 'G
Week 3 - Win home prelim
Week 4 - Beat Collingwood in GF

 

[Rotayjay]

It would be tough to watch; but imagine finishing fourth and breaking the Collingwood hoodoo at the 'G twice in the finals!

Week 1 - Beat Collingwood at the 'G
Week 3 - Win home prelim
Week 4 - Beat Collingwood in GF

I wouldn't completely discount that happening

 

[kirky]

What Lions, Pies and Dogs having negative/0 contested marking differential should tell you is that it's not actually a particularly valuable stat on its own. The marks inside 50 differential is more important as it speaks to the quality of the ball movement and the forward line function. Having a lot of contested marks can mean that you just kick the ball to contests a lot whereas opposition may be hitting up leading targets or creating loose players that result in uncontested marks.

The point to be made it is another string in a bow. The move strings you have, the more versatile you are and dangerous.

 

[kirky]

It would be tough to watch; but imagine finishing fourth and breaking the Collingwood hoodoo at the 'G twice in the finals!

Week 1 - Beat Collingwood at the 'G
Week 3 - Win home prelim
Week 4 - Beat Collingwood in GF

I reckon if that happens I’ll be in a 6 month state of intoxication.

 

[Coopers]

The main interest for the rest of the year (minor round) is which of the top 9 is going to make the best play for 9th. I hope it isn't us!

The ladder is pretty amazing right now.

Thankfully, our big% is going to put us on the top of whatever group we are in by count of total wins. So that's... good.

 

[Coopers]

Think Geelong will have that.
They Only play 1 top 9 team on the run home

Lols, of course they do.

 

[Betts are off]

#2 for both Points for and Points against this season at the completion of the bye rounds (minus a game for GCS and ESS, but neither could impact those rankings even if they played the even up).

The #1 scoring team is the Dogs, and the #1 points against team is the Pies. That's pretty good company to be in with 2 months to go in the regular season.

 

[kirky]

There will be upsets where sides outside the 8 win games - any top 9 game played away from home is the most dangerous - ie playing Sydney in Sydney.

 

[kirky]

#2 for both Points for and Points against this season at the completion of the bye rounds (minus a game for GCS and ESS, but neither could impact those rankings even if they played the even up).

The #1 scoring team is the Dogs, and the #1 points against team is the Pies. That's pretty good company to be in with 2 months to go in the regular season.

Think it shows we are well positioned - the only piece missing is winning games against those in the top 8, no close losses is acceptable.

 

[King Patty]

I expect Crows to finish top 4 now.
It is tight, but they are better than Freo, and likely Hawks too.

3. ADELAIDE CROWS (10-5, 139.8%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval Win - wheels off at Demons

Round 18: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium - Loss

Round 19: Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval Win

Round 20: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval WIn


Round 21: Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval Win

Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium Win

Round 23: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval Loss

Round 24: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium Win

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest

They are playing all the harder teams at home, and easier teams away which should swing things in their favour, could even see them beating the pies at home.

 

[Carn The Texan]

I expect Crows to finish top 4 now.
It is tight, but they are better than Freo, and likely Hawks too.

3. ADELAIDE CROWS (10-5, 139.8%)

Remaining games

Round 17: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval Win - wheels off at Demons

Round 18: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium - Loss

Round 19: Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval Win

Round 20: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval WIn


Round 21: Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval Win

Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium Win

Round 23: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval Loss

Round 24: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium Win

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest

They are playing all the harder teams at home, and easier teams away which should swing things in their favour, could even see them beating the pies at home.

I would back us in to do something completely infuriating like win those games against Pies and Bulldogs and lose to Port and North Melbourne.

 

[King Patty]

I guess Port is harder due to being a interstate rivalry game, ladder position is kind of irrelevant. Class should still shine through.

 

[davos44]

If we finish 3rd/4th who would we rather play?

I think Collingwood because we are very close to beating them but we have them at AO beforehand.

I like the idea of Geelong at the MCG because we have never played them there and its not their happy time ground of KP or AO. Something a bit different.

Brisbane at the Gabba would be a disaster.

 

[Mutineer]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/every-clubs-run-home-final-ladder-position-predicted-with-eight-rounds-to-go/news-story/fc9c1fac9468599bfb16ddb70fed5667

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1. COLLINGWOOD​

Played: 15, Won: 13, Lost: 2, Percentage: 136

RUN HOME​

R17: Carlton, MCG (W)
R18: Gold Coast Suns, PFS (L)
R19: Fremantle, MCG (W)
R20: Richmond, MCG (W)
R21: Brisbane Lions, MCG (W)
R22: Hawthorn, MCG (W)
R23: Adelaide, AO (L)
R24: Melbourne, MCG (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 1st (19-4)

The Magpies have set up their season beautifully by winning a procession of danger games through the bye rounds.

They could have easily coughed up four points to Melbourne, St Kilda or West Coast – instead they are 10 points clear atop the ladder and it’s time to cue the “mini pre-season” talk.

Don’t expect a perfect run from here – the Pies had a brief trough at the back end of their golden 2023 as they got themselves ready for the finals.

Only two remaining interstate trips will help keep the troops fresh though.

2. BRISBANE LIONS​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Drawn: 1, Lost: 4, Percentage: 113

RUN HOME​

R17: Port Adelaide, Gabba (W)
R18: Carlton, Marvel (W)
R19: Western Bulldogs, Gabba (W)
R20: Gold Coast, PFS (W)
R21: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R22: Sydney, Gabba (W)
R23: Fremantle, PS (L)
R24: Hawthorn, Gabba (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 2nd (16-6-1)

The Lions come out of the bye in a nice spot after their comprehensive win over Geelong in round 15.

Only drop two games from here and the reigning premiers should be able to sew up a top-two spot – which is quite remarkable given most weeks they have appeared some distance from their best.

Meeting five of the top nine sides in the last six weeks will be demanding, but Brisbane will know as well as any side how its game is holding up against the best when finals get underway.

3. ADELAIDE​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Drawn: 0, Lost: 5, Percentage: 140

RUN HOME​

R17: Melbourne, AO (W)
R18: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R19: Gold Coast, AO (W)
R20: Port Adelaide, AO (W)
R21: Hawthorn, AO (L)
R22: West Coast, PS (W)
R23: Collingwood, AO (W)
R24: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 3rd (16-7)

Thrashing Richmond has given Adelaide crucial percentage in a season where only four premiership points might stand between third and ninth on the ladder.

Two or three more heavy wins – as well as a big scalp in Hawthorn or the Western Bulldogs – would set the Crows on course for a top-four finish, but a home qualifying final would be their goal from here.

​

4. GEELONG​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 128

RUN HOME​

R17: Richmond, GMHBA (W)
R18: GWS Giants, ENGIE (L)
R19: St Kilda, GMHBA (W)
R20: North Melbourne, Marvel (L)
R21: Port Adelaide, GMHBA (W)
R22: Essendon, GMHBA (W)
R23: Sydney, SCG (W)
R24: Richmond, MCG (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 5th (16-7)

Will Geelong show up to its Marvel Stadium clash against North in round 20?

That game could be the difference between second and fifth for Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

49

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

’s side, which has lost its last three games at the venue – all at the hands of St Kilda.

A win on the road against GWS would also be huge towards the Cats’ top-four chances.

5. HAWTHORN​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 118

RUN HOME​

R17: St Kilda, Marvel (W)
R18: Fremantle, PS (L)
R19: Port Adelaide, UTAS (W)
R20: Carlton, MCG (W)
R21: Adelaide, AO (W)
R22: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R23: Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Brisbane Lions, Gabba (L)
PREDICTED FINISH: 7th (15-8)

They’ve picked up steam in the last few weeks, but the Hawks need to claim at least one more top-nine scalp to reach the September action.

Tricky interstate trips to Fremantle, Adelaide and Brisbane lie in the Hawks’ path to the finals – they will want to be tackling the Lions in round 24 for a top-four spot; not for a top-eight spot.

6. FREMANTLE​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 110

RUN HOME​

R17: Sydney, SCG (L)
R18: Hawthorn, PS (W)
R19: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R20: West Coast, PS (W)
R21: Carlton, PS (W)
R22: Port Adelaide, AO (W)
R23: Brisbane Lions, PS (W)
R24: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
PREDICTED FINISH: 8th (15-8)

The Dockers’ percentage is narrowly better than the Giants’ – it will be important for them to hold that gap if their run home unfolds like the above.

Win all their home games and pinch one over the Power in Adelaide, and they’ll be right in the peloton jostling for finals spots.

Brisbane in round 23 and the Western Bulldogs in round 24 will be massive for Fremantle.

The Dogs can eye a top four spot.

7. WESTERN BULLDOGS​

Played: 15, Won: 9, Lost: 6, Percentage: 132

RUN HOME​

R17: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)
R18: Adelaide, Marvel (W)
R19: Brisbane Lions, Gabba (L)
R20: Essendon, Marvel (W)
R21: GWS Giants, Marvel (W)
R22: Melbourne, MCG (W)
R23: West Coast, Marvel (W)
R24: Fremantle, Marvel (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 4th (16-7)

Finally the Western Bulldogs get to reap the rewards of their “world tour” at the start of the season.

One trip to Brisbane, one trip to the MCG to face Melbourne, and the rest of the run home will be on their home patch.

They’ve got in their own way in the past at this point in the season, but the Dogs are in a strong position to clinch a double chance.

8. GOLD COAST​

Played: 14, Won: 9, Lost: 5, Percentage: 120

RUN HOME​

R17: Essendon, Marvel (W)
R18: Collingwood, PFS (W)
R19: Adelaide, AO (L)
R20: Brisbane Lions, PFS (L)
R21: Richmond, PFS (W)
R22: Carlton, Marvel (L)
R23: GWS Giants, PFS (W)
R24: Essendon, PFS (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 6th (15-8)

The Suns will hope a little wobble through the bye rounds is behind them.

Two clashes against an injury-ravaged Essendon look appealing for boosting their percentage, but they will need a big scalp against Collingwood or Brisbane at home to keep the likes of GWS from pushing them out of the eight at the season’s end.

​