Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[pjcrows]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/every-clubs-run-home-final-ladder-position-predicted-with-eight-rounds-to-go/news-story/fc9c1fac9468599bfb16ddb70fed5667

​

1. COLLINGWOOD​

Played: 15, Won: 13, Lost: 2, Percentage: 136

RUN HOME​

R17: Carlton, MCG (W)
R18: Gold Coast Suns, PFS (L)
R19: Fremantle, MCG (W)
R20: Richmond, MCG (W)
R21: Brisbane Lions, MCG (W)
R22: Hawthorn, MCG (W)
R23: Adelaide, AO (L)
R24: Melbourne, MCG (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 1st (19-4)

The Magpies have set up their season beautifully by winning a procession of danger games through the bye rounds.

They could have easily coughed up four points to Melbourne, St Kilda or West Coast – instead they are 10 points clear atop the ladder and it’s time to cue the “mini pre-season” talk.

Don’t expect a perfect run from here – the Pies had a brief trough at the back end of their golden 2023 as they got themselves ready for the finals.

Only two remaining interstate trips will help keep the troops fresh though.

2. BRISBANE LIONS​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Drawn: 1, Lost: 4, Percentage: 113

RUN HOME​

R17: Port Adelaide, Gabba (W)
R18: Carlton, Marvel (W)
R19: Western Bulldogs, Gabba (W)
R20: Gold Coast, PFS (W)
R21: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R22: Sydney, Gabba (W)
R23: Fremantle, PS (L)
R24: Hawthorn, Gabba (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 2nd (16-6-1)

The Lions come out of the bye in a nice spot after their comprehensive win over Geelong in round 15.

Only drop two games from here and the reigning premiers should be able to sew up a top-two spot – which is quite remarkable given most weeks they have appeared some distance from their best.

Meeting five of the top nine sides in the last six weeks will be demanding, but Brisbane will know as well as any side how its game is holding up against the best when finals get underway.

3. ADELAIDE​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Drawn: 0, Lost: 5, Percentage: 140

RUN HOME​

R17: Melbourne, AO (W)
R18: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R19: Gold Coast, AO (W)
R20: Port Adelaide, AO (W)
R21: Hawthorn, AO (L)
R22: West Coast, PS (W)
R23: Collingwood, AO (W)
R24: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 3rd (16-7)

Thrashing Richmond has given Adelaide crucial percentage in a season where only four premiership points might stand between third and ninth on the ladder.

Two or three more heavy wins – as well as a big scalp in Hawthorn or the Western Bulldogs – would set the Crows on course for a top-four finish, but a home qualifying final would be their goal from here.

​

4. GEELONG​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 128

RUN HOME​

R17: Richmond, GMHBA (W)
R18: GWS Giants, ENGIE (L)
R19: St Kilda, GMHBA (W)
R20: North Melbourne, Marvel (L)
R21: Port Adelaide, GMHBA (W)
R22: Essendon, GMHBA (W)
R23: Sydney, SCG (W)
R24: Richmond, MCG (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 5th (16-7)

Will Geelong show up to its Marvel Stadium clash against North in round 20?

That game could be the difference between second and fifth for Chris Scott’s side, which has lost its last three games at the venue – all at the hands of St Kilda.

A win on the road against GWS would also be huge towards the Cats’ top-four chances.

5. HAWTHORN​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 118

RUN HOME​

R17: St Kilda, Marvel (W)
R18: Fremantle, PS (L)
R19: Port Adelaide, UTAS (W)
R20: Carlton, MCG (W)
R21: Adelaide, AO (W)
R22: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R23: Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Brisbane Lions, Gabba (L)
PREDICTED FINISH: 7th (15-8)

They’ve picked up steam in the last few weeks, but the Hawks need to claim at least one more top-nine scalp to reach the September action.

Tricky interstate trips to Fremantle, Adelaide and Brisbane lie in the Hawks’ path to the finals – they will want to be tackling the Lions in round 24 for a top-four spot; not for a top-eight spot.

6. FREMANTLE​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 110

RUN HOME​

R17: Sydney, SCG (L)
R18: Hawthorn, PS (W)
R19: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R20: West Coast, PS (W)
R21: Carlton, PS (W)
R22: Port Adelaide, AO (W)
R23: Brisbane Lions, PS (W)
R24: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
PREDICTED FINISH: 8th (15-8)

The Dockers’ percentage is narrowly better than the Giants’ – it will be important for them to hold that gap if their run home unfolds like the above.

Win all their home games and pinch one over the Power in Adelaide, and they’ll be right in the peloton jostling for finals spots.

Brisbane in round 23 and the Western Bulldogs in round 24 will be massive for Fremantle.

The Dogs can eye a top four spot.

7. WESTERN BULLDOGS​

Played: 15, Won: 9, Lost: 6, Percentage: 132

RUN HOME​

R17: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)
R18: Adelaide, Marvel (W)
R19: Brisbane Lions, Gabba (L)
R20: Essendon, Marvel (W)
R21: GWS Giants, Marvel (W)
R22: Melbourne, MCG (W)
R23: West Coast, Marvel (W)
R24: Fremantle, Marvel (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 4th (16-7)

Finally the Western Bulldogs get to reap the rewards of their “world tour” at the start of the season.

One trip to Brisbane, one trip to the MCG to face Melbourne, and the rest of the run home will be on their home patch.

They’ve got in their own way in the past at this point in the season, but the Dogs are in a strong position to clinch a double chance.

8. GOLD COAST​

Played: 14, Won: 9, Lost: 5, Percentage: 120

RUN HOME​

R17: Essendon, Marvel (W)
R18: Collingwood, PFS (W)
R19: Adelaide, AO (L)
R20: Brisbane Lions, PFS (L)
R21: Richmond, PFS (W)
R22: Carlton, Marvel (L)
R23: GWS Giants, PFS (W)
R24: Essendon, PFS (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 6th (15-8)

The Suns will hope a little wobble through the bye rounds is behind them.

Two clashes against an injury-ravaged Essendon look appealing for boosting their percentage, but they will need a big scalp against Collingwood or Brisbane at home to keep the likes of GWS from pushing them out of the eight at the season’s end.

​

They've got Geelong losing to North. Put it in the bin.

 

[SugarShane]

If we finish 3rd/4th who would we rather play?

I think Collingwood because we are very close to beating them but we have them at AO beforehand.

I like the idea of Geelong at the MCG because we have never played them there and its not their happy time ground of KP or AO. Something a bit different.

Brisbane at the Gabba would be a disaster.

I'd hate to play Collingwood. At the G. In a final. Bugger the power stance, we might as well remove our shorts and bend over before the national anthem even starts.

I'd be happiest with Geelong at the G. I don't think Brisbane at the Gabba are that scary, I'd have them as second preference.

If we win what we should I still think we finish 4th. I don't see Brisbane losing more than us and Geelong have a piss easy run. Us knocking off Collingwood at AO to avoid playing them week 1 would be a huge moment.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

They've got Geelong losing to North. Put it in the bin.

Feels like they had to give some teams a random loss for the sake of balance

 

[pjcrows]

To make a Grand Final you're probably going to have to beat two of Collingwood, Geelong and Brisbane. To win it you'll probably have to beat all three - or beat a team who goes in having beaten them.

There's no "perfect scenario" from 3rd or below.

 

[Mattrox]

It would be tough to watch; but imagine finishing fourth and breaking the Collingwood hoodoo at the 'G twice in the finals!

Week 1 - Beat Collingwood at the 'G
Week 3 - Win home prelim
Week 4 - Beat Collingwood in GF

The AFL would bail oit Pannell for the GF b4 this happened.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/every-clubs-run-home-final-ladder-position-predicted-with-eight-rounds-to-go/news-story/fc9c1fac9468599bfb16ddb70fed5667

​

1. COLLINGWOOD​

Played: 15, Won: 13, Lost: 2, Percentage: 136

RUN HOME​

R17: Carlton, MCG (W)
R18: Gold Coast Suns, PFS (L)
R19: Fremantle, MCG (W)
R20: Richmond, MCG (W)
R21: Brisbane Lions, MCG (W)
R22: Hawthorn, MCG (W)
R23: Adelaide, AO (L)
R24: Melbourne, MCG (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 1st (19-4)

The Magpies have set up their season beautifully by winning a procession of danger games through the bye rounds.

They could have easily coughed up four points to Melbourne, St Kilda or West Coast – instead they are 10 points clear atop the ladder and it’s time to cue the “mini pre-season” talk.

Don’t expect a perfect run from here – the Pies had a brief trough at the back end of their golden 2023 as they got themselves ready for the finals.

Only two remaining interstate trips will help keep the troops fresh though.

2. BRISBANE LIONS​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Drawn: 1, Lost: 4, Percentage: 113

RUN HOME​

R17: Port Adelaide, Gabba (W)
R18: Carlton, Marvel (W)
R19: Western Bulldogs, Gabba (W)
R20: Gold Coast, PFS (W)
R21: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R22: Sydney, Gabba (W)
R23: Fremantle, PS (L)
R24: Hawthorn, Gabba (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 2nd (16-6-1)

The Lions come out of the bye in a nice spot after their comprehensive win over Geelong in round 15.

Only drop two games from here and the reigning premiers should be able to sew up a top-two spot – which is quite remarkable given most weeks they have appeared some distance from their best.

Meeting five of the top nine sides in the last six weeks will be demanding, but Brisbane will know as well as any side how its game is holding up against the best when finals get underway.

3. ADELAIDE​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Drawn: 0, Lost: 5, Percentage: 140

RUN HOME​

R17: Melbourne, AO (W)
R18: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R19: Gold Coast, AO (W)
R20: Port Adelaide, AO (W)
R21: Hawthorn, AO (L)
R22: West Coast, PS (W)
R23: Collingwood, AO (W)
R24: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 3rd (16-7)

Thrashing Richmond has given Adelaide crucial percentage in a season where only four premiership points might stand between third and ninth on the ladder.

Two or three more heavy wins – as well as a big scalp in Hawthorn or the Western Bulldogs – would set the Crows on course for a top-four finish, but a home qualifying final would be their goal from here.

​

4. GEELONG​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 128

RUN HOME​

R17: Richmond, GMHBA (W)
R18: GWS Giants, ENGIE (L)
R19: St Kilda, GMHBA (W)
R20: North Melbourne, Marvel (L)
R21: Port Adelaide, GMHBA (W)
R22: Essendon, GMHBA (W)
R23: Sydney, SCG (W)
R24: Richmond, MCG (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 5th (16-7)

Will Geelong show up to its Marvel Stadium clash against North in round 20?

That game could be the difference between second and fifth for Chris Scott’s side, which has lost its last three games at the venue – all at the hands of St Kilda.

A win on the road against GWS would also be huge towards the Cats’ top-four chances.

5. HAWTHORN​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 118

RUN HOME​

R17: St Kilda, Marvel (W)
R18: Fremantle, PS (L)
R19: Port Adelaide, UTAS (W)
R20: Carlton, MCG (W)
R21: Adelaide, AO (W)
R22: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R23: Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Brisbane Lions, Gabba (L)
PREDICTED FINISH: 7th (15-8)

They’ve picked up steam in the last few weeks, but the Hawks need to claim at least one more top-nine scalp to reach the September action.

Tricky interstate trips to Fremantle, Adelaide and Brisbane lie in the Hawks’ path to the finals – they will want to be tackling the Lions in round 24 for a top-four spot; not for a top-eight spot.

6. FREMANTLE​

Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 110

RUN HOME​

R17: Sydney, SCG (L)
R18: Hawthorn, PS (W)
R19: Collingwood, MCG (L)
R20: West Coast, PS (W)
R21: Carlton, PS (W)
R22: Port Adelaide, AO (W)
R23: Brisbane Lions, PS (W)
R24: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
PREDICTED FINISH: 8th (15-8)

The Dockers’ percentage is narrowly better than the Giants’ – it will be important for them to hold that gap if their run home unfolds like the above.

Win all their home games and pinch one over the Power in Adelaide, and they’ll be right in the peloton jostling for finals spots.

Brisbane in round 23 and the Western Bulldogs in round 24 will be massive for Fremantle.

The Dogs can eye a top four spot.

7. WESTERN BULLDOGS​

Played: 15, Won: 9, Lost: 6, Percentage: 132

RUN HOME​

R17: North Melbourne, Marvel (W)
R18: Adelaide, Marvel (W)
R19: Brisbane Lions, Gabba (L)
R20: Essendon, Marvel (W)
R21: GWS Giants, Marvel (W)
R22: Melbourne, MCG (W)
R23: West Coast, Marvel (W)
R24: Fremantle, Marvel (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 4th (16-7)

Finally the Western Bulldogs get to reap the rewards of their “world tour” at the start of the season.

One trip to Brisbane, one trip to the MCG to face Melbourne, and the rest of the run home will be on their home patch.

They’ve got in their own way in the past at this point in the season, but the Dogs are in a strong position to clinch a double chance.

8. GOLD COAST​

Played: 14, Won: 9, Lost: 5, Percentage: 120

RUN HOME​

R17: Essendon, Marvel (W)
R18: Collingwood, PFS (W)
R19: Adelaide, AO (L)
R20: Brisbane Lions, PFS (L)
R21: Richmond, PFS (W)
R22: Carlton, Marvel (L)
R23: GWS Giants, PFS (W)
R24: Essendon, PFS (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (W)
PREDICTED FINISH: 6th (15-8)

The Suns will hope a little wobble through the bye rounds is behind them.

Two clashes against an injury-ravaged Essendon look appealing for boosting their percentage, but they will need a big scalp against Collingwood or Brisbane at home to keep the likes of GWS from pushing them out of the eight at the season’s end.

​

Key takeaway from this article is how likely Collingwood have 1st place sewn up by the time we play them. Playing a Collingwood side going through the motions makes us upsetting them reasonable.

 

[daniel_4tw]

I wouldn’t worry too much about who we face. If you’re going to win it all, you’re going to have to beat the best teams at the MCG at some point anyway.

I just really hope we get top 4 so we get a free hit in QF before a realistic shot for a prelim. Anything after that is gravy.

 

[Redline]

I wouldn’t worry too much about who we face. If you’re going to win it all, you’re going to have to beat the best teams at the MCG at some point anyway.

I just really hope we get top 4 so we get a free hit in QF before a realistic shot for a prelim. Anything after that is gravy.

Once you are in the finals I think you have to win one. Given how even the competition is this year, if we get to finals with a healthy list we should be expecting to go deep. No brave performances as it doesn't get easier the following year.

 

[SugarShane]

To make a Grand Final you're probably going to have to beat two of Collingwood, Geelong and Brisbane. To win it you'll probably have to beat all three - or beat a team who goes in having beaten them.

There's no "perfect scenario" from 3rd or below.

Going to have to beat two for sure. Is entirely possible to only play 2 though.

If you win your QF and PF, the team you beat in week 1 ends up in the other PF. So it's quite possible that a team good enough could beat Geelong week 1, then meet say Brisbane in the PF, and meet Geelong again in the GF if they ran through the other side of the draw.

Most likely scenario of course is having to roll all 3.

 

[SugarShane]

Once you the finals I think you have to win one. Given how even the competition is this year, if we get to finals with a healthy list we should be expecting to go deep. No brave performances as it doesn't get easier the following year.

Before the season making finals was a pass. If we finish 6 or higher we must win one. That has become the new pass mark.

"There's always next year" is the one of footy's biggest myths.

 

[clinto69]

I wouldn't mind coming up Collingwood at the G. Imagine winning that and coming home for a preliminary final.

 

[daniel_4tw]

I wouldn't mind coming up Collingwood at the G. Imagine winning that and coming home for a preliminary final.

Agreed would be my preference. I think they’re beatable and we match up well. Just have to get over our nerves/choke we always do against them. Would be incredible.

My concern with Geelong is Chris Scott always seems to out coach Nicks and he’ll pull something we just won’t (try to) have an answer to.

I think Brisbane in Brisbane are beatable.

Re the rest of the 8, everyone is saying GWS but I don’t see it. They always win the games they need to. They’ll pull an upset if needed to sneak in. Once in they’ll likely do well (should have beaten both Sydney and Brisbane last year).

Fremantle or Gold Coast to miss out for me. Maybe Hawks with their injuries.

 

[moogerfooger]

Best thing about our season so far is apart from the Geelong game, we've consistently won every game we were expected to win (plus a couple more) and only lost the away games we were expected to lose. If that continues we'll be in a good position.

This time last year Sydney was considered as much of a lock as Collingwood is now, Carlton was 2nd (finished 8th), Essendon was 4th (finished 11th) and Brisbane was sitting in 8th.

History says the wheels are going to fall off for at least one top four side and at least one is going to get on a run from here, likely the team that's going to go on and win the flag.

 

[pjcrows]

Brisbane are still the team for mine.

 

[kirky]

Brisbane are still the team for mine.

Think the issue for Brisbane now is they don’t have Daniher and now Payne. The Daniher departure has impacted this year with their inconsistency not only from game to game but within games.

 

[FullyBigKPro]

The only thing about say playing Pies at the G in a Qualifying final, is that we would surely go into that game with a 'nothing to lose' mentality and 0 pressure on us.

Usually that is when we tend to play very well when there's 0 expectation or pressure...

Still - lets get there first!

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Brisbane are still the team for mine.

Pies for me against either Cats or Lions.

 

[SugarShane]

Not sure why everyone is so keen to write off the team that plays more at the MCG than anyone else, is 2.5 games clear of 2nd place, and has lost one game since their Opening Round write-off which was by 3 points, and arguably on the back of a bad umpiring decision.

Even if Brisbane, us or Geelong make the GF, if it's against Collingwood it's 2017 all over again (and before you say 2018, Collingwood didn't finish a few games on top that year, they barely lost to a clearly better team).

 

[FR0GGY]

Collingwood at the G in a final? I’ve seen this movie before.

 

[Scorpus]

The ideal matchup for us is Brisbane at the Gabba, one of the Victorian teams at Adelaide Oval in the PF, then Brisbane again or another non Vic team in the grand final

 

[WeeBlake]

Pies for me against either Cats or Lions.

There’s a gap between those three and the next 6, who are evenish imo

 

[MRB37]

Just some quick stats of us vs top 9 (teams in final contention) vs the rest

Bottom teams we average
123.8 points for VS 67.6 points against
18.8 goals and 11.3 behinds for VS 9.6 goals and 9.9 behinds against
58.6 Inside 50's for VS 48.1 Inside 50's against.

Top 9 we average
69.9 points for VS 73.9 points against
10 goals and 9.9 behinds for VS 10.3 goals and 12.1 behinds against
52 Inside 50's for vs 53.4 Inside 50's against

So our scoring/defense mix is getting quite inflated by us averaging a +56 point differential vs the bottom sides. We're also seeing our scoring slashed in half vs the top sides, but it's at an inflated rate of being -6 on Inside 50's, but that causing a -8 goal scoring differential. You'd also say would probably be impacted by Nicks going defensive and slower, which makes it harder for us to score once we get it inside 50. Since the Gold Coast/Geelong games where we scored 90 and 100 we have a top score of 68 vs Collingwood and Brisbane.

You can also argue that the style gets us "close enough" vs the best sides, but as we've continually seen it then relies on everything going perfect for us, which rarely happens, and you could say we're not a team that subscribes to the "you make your own luck" theory.

 

[Carn The Texan]

Just some quick stats of us vs top 9 (teams in final contention) vs the rest

Bottom teams we average
123.8 points for VS 67.6 points against
18.8 goals and 11.3 behinds for VS 9.6 goals and 9.9 behinds against
58.6 Inside 50's for VS 48.1 Inside 50's against.

Top 9 we average
69.9 points for VS 73.9 points against
10 goals and 9.9 behinds for VS 10.3 goals and 12.1 behinds against
52 Inside 50's for vs 53.4 Inside 50's against

So our scoring/defense mix is getting quite inflated by us averaging a +56 point differential vs the bottom sides. We're also seeing our scoring slashed in half vs the top sides, but it's at an inflated rate of being -6 on Inside 50's, but that causing a -8 goal scoring differential. You'd also say would probably be impacted by Nicks going defensive and slower, which makes it harder for us to score once we get it inside 50. Since the Gold Coast/Geelong games where we scored 90 and 100 we have a top score of 68 vs Collingwood and Brisbane.

You can also argue that the style gets us "close enough" vs the best sides, but as we've continually seen it then relies on everything going perfect for us, which rarely happens, and you could say we're not a team that subscribes to the "you make your own luck" theory.

It all looks very "Port Adelaide" there doesn't it. We have a chance against GCS, Hawks and Collingwood at AO to put that to bed. A good showing against WBD at Marvel would be even bigger.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Just some quick stats of us vs top 9 (teams in final contention) vs the rest

Bottom teams we average
123.8 points for VS 67.6 points against
18.8 goals and 11.3 behinds for VS 9.6 goals and 9.9 behinds against
58.6 Inside 50's for VS 48.1 Inside 50's against.

Top 9 we average
69.9 points for VS 73.9 points against
10 goals and 9.9 behinds for VS 10.3 goals and 12.1 behinds against
52 Inside 50's for vs 53.4 Inside 50's against

So our scoring/defense mix is getting quite inflated by us averaging a +56 point differential vs the bottom sides. We're also seeing our scoring slashed in half vs the top sides, but it's at an inflated rate of being -6 on Inside 50's, but that causing a -8 goal scoring differential. You'd also say would probably be impacted by Nicks going defensive and slower, which makes it harder for us to score once we get it inside 50. Since the Gold Coast/Geelong games where we scored 90 and 100 we have a top score of 68 vs Collingwood and Brisbane.

You can also argue that the style gets us "close enough" vs the best sides, but as we've continually seen it then relies on everything going perfect for us, which rarely happens, and you could say we're not a team that subscribes to the "you make your own luck" theory.

We haven't scored heavily in our games vs top teams recently however that's seemed very much by design.

After the GC/Geel losses, we started playing a much safer, risk-averse style against strong teams.

Wars of attrition. Going up the line. Very few switches. Not playing on after a mark/free kick. Not trying to hit up options in the corridor. Grinding territory battles. The Collingwood game in particular was an offensive stalemate. Neither side risking turnover.

The only time things opened up was Q4 v Brisbane when we were behind.

In games vs dud teams we go back to our attacking, fast style and blitz them but we seem cautious to play in this way vs better teams.

Can we beat top teams in September in an arm wrestle? Can we beat top teams in September in a fast, open game?

Personally I don't think we can beat good teams without an element of risk.

 

[MRB37]

We haven't scored heavily in our games vs top teams recently however that's seemed very much by design.

After the GC/Geel losses, we started playing a much safer, risk-averse style against strong teams.

Wars of attrition. Going up the line. Very few switches. Not playing on after a mark/free kick. Not trying to hit up options in the corridor. Grinding territory battles. The Collingwood game in particular was an offensive stalemate. Neither side risking turnover.

The only time things opened up was Q4 v Brisbane when we were behind.

In games vs dud teams we go back to our attacking, fast style and blitz them but we seem cautious to play in this way vs better teams.

Can we beat top teams in September in an arm wrestle? Can we beat top teams in September in a fast, open game?

Personally I don't think we can beat good teams without an element of risk.

Yep, the problem is Nicks seems heavily against that going on too long and winds it back as quick as he can. A move that almost cost us the Port and Brisbane games and has cost us numerous others.