Analysis Draft Hindsight Heroes v1 (2017)

[BeornJ]

Looking like a goose is pretty much the idea of this thread

But even if Brander reaches Kennedy's level, the last 10 years have shown us that's not enough for a flag if the midfield isn't there. That's why it was the wrong pick.

Ha i like this.

So if we don't win a flag in the time that Brander plays for us, then you were right.

I'll give that logic a go....

Hawthorn and Richmond has shown us that you don't win flags without a Rioli.

So if we win a flag while Willie Rioli plays with us, then its because of him

 

[MrKK]

Ha i like this.

So if we don't win a flag in the time that Brander plays for us, then you were right.

I'll give that logic a go....

Hawthorn and Richmond has shown us that you don't win flags without a Rioli.

So if we win a flag while Willie Rioli plays with us, then its because of him

We haven't really come close to winning a flag in Kennedy's time with us - beaten convincingly in one GF and 1 PF, never got past 2nd week of finals apart from that. Our forward line has been great for most of that time but it's always the midfield where we lose it when the crunch comes.
Now we trade into the draft and spend our first 3 picks on forwards and I fear we'll still be talking about the rot in the middle for the next 5-10 years.

Edit: sorry, I saw you had posted your picks in this thread.

 

[BeornJ]

Have you posted your picks in this thread? Go on, don't be shy.

We haven't really come close to winning a flag in Kennedy's time with us - beaten convincingly in one GF and 1 PF, never got past 2nd week of finals apart from that. Our forward line has been great for most of that time but it's always the midfield where we lose it when the crunch comes.
Now we trade into the draft and spend our first 3 picks on forwards and I fear we'll still be talking about the rot in the middle for the next 5-10 years.

Ive made my post.

Just found the logic cute is all. Didn't even think you were wrong really

 

[Bestbird]

Will be interesting to see who has the better career, Brander or Higgins. I have a feeling it will be higgins

Regarding Higgins. He is no certainty to be a midfielder at AFL level. Short by modern standards and not overly quick. Might end up more likely to be a small forward. That was part of the problem at our draft selection of 13 . The 10th or so ranked likely midfielder or one of the top kpp prospects.

 

[Obeanie1]

So take him at 32 and Ainsworth at 38

Net result = da same

No take Ryan at 26 and Worpel at 32.

So Allen, L Fogarty, Ryan, Worpel, Ainsworth and Brayshaw.

 

[MrKK]

Ive made my post.

Just found the logic cute is all. Didn't even think you were wrong really

Yeah, sorry, I edited that dig out but you were too quick for me.

I'll happily look like a goose and have my predictions be totally wrong, which happens about 90% of the time I make big calls on here. Allen is really the key to this draft success, if he can transition into a gun midfielder then it makes choosing Brander over a mid look like a fantastic call.

 

[BeornJ]

Yeah, sorry, I edited that dig out but you were too quick for me.

I'll happily look like a goose and have my predictions be totally wrong, which happens about 90% of the time I make big calls on here. Allen is really the key to this draft success, if he can transition into a gun midfielder then it makes choosing Brander over a mid look like a fantastic call.

No worries buddy.

I work with kids who swear at me and try to hit me most weeks. Will take more than that to upset me.

I Didn't mean to come across as a dick either. Sorry about that

 

[WCE_phil]

No worries buddy.

I work with kids who swear at me and try to hit me most weeks. Will take more than that to upset me.

I Didn't mean to come across as a dick either. Sorry about that

When you priests stop trying to molest the kids they'll stop trying to hit you. When will you buggers learn!

 

[eaglesfan84]

13 - Brander - I don't like this pick, an inconsistent forward or defender in a height range we have plenty of. I'd have picked Oscar Allen here, he is similar to Brander but has potential to play as a mid in future and looks like a future leader, I'd argue he performs better as a forward than Brander.


21 - Oscar Allen - I'm OK with us picking Allen but wished we got him at 13 then could have grabbed Tim Kelly here at 21, would have been great addition to our midfield.

26 - Liam Ryan - I'm not against getting Ryan, but against it this early, would have taken Worpel here, the guy will be a superstar of the competition, mark my words.

32 - Corey Ainsworth - Probably one of the last people I would have selected. Would rather have picked up Sam Hayes here, he will be a superstar too.

38 - Jack Petrucelle - His inconsistent and poor foot skills, don't want him. Would have liked Miers here, would prefer Miers over Ryan.

Pick 68 - Hamish Brayshaw - happy with this one, would take Ainsworth here if Brayshaw wasn't available.

Pick 77 - Pass

 

[WCErevival]

Brander - Need to keep our KPP stocks up as in a couple of years its going to be very thin. A

Allen - Dont see where he will play for us. Will probably be a competent 3rd tall but nothing spectacular. Happy to be proved wrong. D

Ryan - Providing he has sorted his off field issues I think he will be good for us. Maybe picked a bit early but oh well. B

Ainsworth - Will only be a mediocre mid. Will get games but only be fringe. C

Petrucelle - Have a feeling he will be a surprise packet. B

Brayshaw - Think he will be a decent mid and be rated a lot higher than this pick. A

 

[Trouto]

The choices the Eagles made are baffling. Our current stock of players sees us with a very strong defense, especially talls, a strong attack, and a weak midfield. and out top three picks are all defenders and attacks! i can see the need to draft a tall forward as JK is not getting any younger, but we have a lack of quality in the midfield and to rely on the future of our midfield coming from draft picks over 30 is really poor list management in my opinion. i just hope we uncover some gems with the late picks. Lets hope last year's picks come good.
Please dont take this as me saying "i hate our top three picks". I frikn love the fact we got Liam Ryan, but we really need mids. perhaps this is another case of the Eagles staff aiming to "mold" players into other positions, like they so successfully did with Tom Lamb

 

[LittleGreekGod]

13 Allen instead of Brander
21 L Fogarty
26 Worpel assuming Kelly gone
32 Ainsworth
38 Ryan
68 Brayshaw

Rookie Grigg, Kreuger and Orlando

Expect Worpel, Fogerty and Ryan to play games in 2018.

All clubs discounted Worpel and Constable till the mid thirties and mid forties picks.
There is obviously a reason for that with dozens of professional recruiting people coming to that conclusion.

One can only assume that outside of the top 10 there were few mids that would have an immediate impact at AFL level.
Geelong picking a 23 year old Kelly at pick 23 certainly backs up this point.

Worpel and Constable would not have leapfrogged the likes on Venerables, Partington, Cole, Nelson, Duggan, Sheed and Redden for a midfield gig.
There wee many on here that called for a few of these guys to get a run and now they have their chance. If this wasn't the case maybe the club should have moved them on also.
Add to this the return of Natanui who is that big bodied mid that we all forgot about. His clearance rate and contested possession count is as good as any genuine mid.
And before anybody suggests that Duggan is a HB I suggest that he will get much more midfield time now he is more comfortable in the team.
I don't think there is any doubt that that the club see him as a midfielder.

Finally I think that some have forgotten just how good Natanui is at bringing others into the play.

The future looks good with the best mix of draftees that I have seen in a long time.
Honestly believe that all 6 plus Ah Chee will play AFL in the future.

 

[archiemoses]

The choices the Eagles made are baffling. Our current stock of players sees us with a very strong defense, especially talls, a strong attack, and a weak midfield. and out top three picks are all defenders and attacks! i can see the need to draft a tall forward as JK is not getting any younger, but we have a lack of quality in the midfield and to rely on the future of our midfield coming from draft picks over 30 is really poor list management in my opinion. i just hope we uncover some gems with the late picks. Lets hope last year's picks come good.
Please dont take this as me saying "i hate our top three picks". I frikn love the fact we got Liam Ryan, but we really need mids. perhaps this is another case of the Eagles staff aiming to "mold" players into other positions, like they so successfully did with Tom Lamb

The point was that no top mids were left at 13. So wce went best tall, which is solid logic.. Use 21 on mids. Then when Oscar Allen was available at 21 which we were very big into, they couldn't resist, especially if WCE believe he has mid potential.

The Allen pick will be compared to L Fogarty which would have been the best mid available at 21.

26 was a reach on Ryan and probably spooked by T Kelly going so early.

The strategy was understandable given the picks we had at 13 and 21. I wonder if Allen was making it to 26?

13. BRANDER
21. FOGARTY
26. ALLEN
32. CONSTABLE
38. RYAN/MIERS
67. BRAYSHAW

 

[Trouto]

The point was that no top mids were left at 13. So wce went best tall, which is solid logic.. Use 21 on mids. Then when Oscar Allen was available at 21 which we were very big into, they couldn't resist, especially if WCE believe he has mid potential.

The Allen pick will be compared to L Fogarty which would have been the best mid available at 21.

26 was a reach on Ryan and probably spooked by T Kelly going so early.

The strategy was understandable given the picks we had at 13 and 21. I wonder if Allen was making it to 26?

13. BRANDER
21. FOGARTY
26. ALLEN
32. CONSTABLE
38. RYAN/MIERS
67. BRAYSHAW

i was wondering if there was a lack of mids. well, hope they do well and we get by on what we have

 

[Feeling Groovy]

Pick 13 - Jarrod Brander

I wouldn't have picked Brander and probably would have gone Higgins but that was just because I knew too little about Brander and knew a lot about our midfield issues. However, I think this was the right pick here by West Coast and totally support it.

Pick 21 - Oscar Allen

Best available here and a great pick up. I am not convinced he will be a midfielder but sure hope he will. Either way, on talent I back the pick but not sure where he and Waterman, Darling, the other Allen all fit if he doesn't make a midfielder.

As much as I wanted Kelly, I would have waited to 26 for him and gone Allen.

Pick 26 - Liam Ryan

I would have gone Kelly here but couldn't as Geelong pipped us. It sucks but no issues with not taking Kelly at 21. I think most saw 26 as a bit of a reach other than the fact that Kelly perfectly fitted what West Coast needed/needs. I am fine with the Ryan pick and think having him on our list is a real bonus. If we had waited to 32, I think he would have been gone.

I also don't buy into the we could have rookied him the year before argument as that isn't relevant to this draft (and also applies to Kelly). As a stand alone pick in 2017, is he worth pick 26? On his stats, yes. Other things considered, maybe a reach but we wanted him and made sure we got him after missing Kelly (I guess we missed Kelly). I do agree we haven't used our rookie picks well recently and last year could have gone any of Ryan, Kelly, Banfield etc instead of Gorter, but it isn't really relevant as to whether this pick is in isolation in 2017 a good pick.

Pick 32- Brayden Ainsworth

No opinion as I have no idea about him. I would have gone Constable here.

Pick 38- Jack Petruccelle

I like this pick. I don't buy into the Ash Smith comparisons. They are two completely different players and the only thing in common is pace. I think if he puts it all together he could be a great pick up. Has some real attributes (pace) that we lack.

Pick 68 - Hamish Brayshaw

Great pick and would have picked the same I guess (not looking too deeply into who else was available).

Pick 77- PASS

No issue with the pass. Sucked Garlett got picked up as we may have thought we could rookie him.

Need to see what we do with rookie's but I think it was a very good draft.

 

[eagles rule]

Regarding Higgins. He is no certainty to be a midfielder at AFL level. Short by modern standards and not overly quick. Might end up more likely to be a small forward. That was part of the problem at our draft selection of 13 . The 10th or so ranked likely midfielder or one of the top kpp prospects.

I seeing it the same way Higgins will probably be a Stevie Milne type small forward at Afl level ..Pick 13 way to early as evidenced by actual drafting position ..


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Goldfish]

Pick 13
Eagles - Jarrod Brander
My pick - Jack Higgins
Brander may be a good pick in hindsight but given what we've lost over the preseason already I think Higgins was best available for our needs. HFF and mid rotation, highest average champion data score in u18, ever. In 35 games scored over 100 in 29 of them. Kid will be a gun.

Pick 21
Eagles - Oscar Allen
My pick - Oscar Allen
Happy with this one, best available, Larke medalist and will be a quality 3rd tall, possibly midfield aspirations.

Pick 26
Eagles - Liam Ryan
My pick - Liam Ryan
After missing out on Kelly, had to play it safe and pick the other over-age player I wanted. May have been a reach but time will tell. Certainly will be a more interesting forward line if we can get Ryan and Rioli on the park at the same time. Probably worthy of a top 10 pick on talent alone.

Pick 32
Eagles - Brayden Ainsworth
My pick - Charlier Constable
We wanted Bayley Fritsch here but Melbourne jumped the gun, we thought he'd be there longer and also needed more time to make a decision on the fly. Can understand the Ainsworth decision but his kicking is a big '?' and think he is very similar to other mids we have waiting in the wings (Parto etc). I would have gone Constable, slow but quality player and quality kid who I feel will become a good AFL mid, he's taller, a natural footballer and has good skills.

Pick 38
Eagles - Jack Petruccelle
My pick - Nathan Murphy
Petruccelle could be anything if it all comes together, and whilst I like this pick, I still think there were better options. Murphy was highly rated, great skills and can take a grab. Could see him taking Lecca's spot (if Ryan doesn't come on). Was also toying with Worpel here as another option...

Pick 68
Eagles - Hamish Brayshaw
My pick - Hamish Brayshaw
Really happy with this pick, has huge upside and will leave nothing in the tank trying to get the best out of himself. Can see him having an impact next year.

Pick 77
Eagles - PASS
My pick - Bailey Banfield
Can understand the pass, but I think Banfield would have been a nice addition, has done really well in the WAFL as a 19yo and giving him 2 years as opposed to one as a rookie wouldn't be an issue imo. Garlett could have been another option here, but he would be a higher risk on a 2 year deal and was probably a better rookie pick had he have made it there (given his history).

Rookie Draft
Rookie pick 13
Eagles - Ryan Burrows
My pick - Tony Olongo
Needed a developing ruck, picked a developing ruck. Should be useful learning under NicNat.

Rookie pick 27
Eagles - Tony Olongo
My pick - Callan England
Can see the Gaff comparisons due to his running capacity. Worthwhile rookie pick.

Rookie pick 35
Eagles - Callan England
My pick - PASS
Given I made an additional pick in the main draft, need one less rookie as we have an extra player on the main list.

 

[Jootube]

Pick 13-Brander:
Negative. I see a simple choice for West Coast, take Higgins if they wanted a SmallFwd/Mid, or L.Fogarty if they wanted a full-time mid. Personally, I would have taken L.Fog.

Pick 21-Allen
Positive. Allen is the obvious pick here, honestly surprised he made it this far.

Pick 26-Ryan
Positive. Ryan should contribute more than 95% of other players available at 26.

Pick 32-Ainsworth
Neutral/Positive. Line ball between him and Constable. Fine with Ainsworth as there is 0 go-home factor.

Pick 38-Petruccelle.
Neutral/Negative. I would have taken Worpel. This kid will be best-22 for the Hawks for 10+ years (health permitting).

Pick 68-Brayshaw
Positive. Excellent choice.

Pick 77- Pass
Neutral/Negative. I would have taken Banfield. Not hugely upset at a pass.

I look forward to being @quoted when Brander wins his 5th Coleman medal and Higgins is a dud.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

I always laugh when the recruiters get criticised for going with safe, vanilla picks then get crucified for drafting guys like Weedon or Lamb instead of the safe, vanilla pick that was also available.

Given the picks they have available, I think the Eagles tend to do pretty well. The problem (if you can call it that) is that we've been too good to receive the high draft picks you need to draft the A grade talent. There's always the odd one that you look back on with a bit of regret (Lamb over Gov Jnr) but at the time we were all rapt.

The top up strategy over the last couple of years failed. I wasn't a fan, but it has been targeted. Inside grunt (Redden), outside speed (Jetta), football smarts (Mitchell) and a fierce desire to compete/heart (Petrie). All weaknesses I feel we sought to rectify. Even if the real reason we rookied Petrie wasn't specifically to show the pea hearts how to compete We didn't go full Port, we didn't sell the farm.

We nailed 2010 when we had decent picks (albeit not as good as they should have been, thanks Gold Coast): Gaff, Darling, Lycett and McGovern as a rookie. Jesus.

I like the look of this haul. At the time I was dumbfounded we didn't take midfielders with our first couple of picks, and that we took Ryan so high, but looking at their highlights and given what was available, I'm happy. Our first two picks slid, and Ryan's WAFL form over the last two years is undeniable. If he was 18 instead of 21 (and white...) I daresay he would have gone top 5 with a record like that.

Hopefully the fence I'm sitting on doesn't get too uncomfortable

 

[The Gtrain]

I quite like the Brander pick, touted as best KPP in the draft and was an touted as a possible pick 1 at the start of the year, he obviously has class in spades. Even if it doesn't work out for him and he wants to leave, look at Tom Boyd or Lever, both netted great trades. That said I hope he has a long career with the Eagles. Perfect timing if it is to replace JK in 3 yrs, hell he might even give Darling a shock if he pushes for early selection?

The Allen pick was a no-brainer at 21, should have gone earlier, home product will be a great addition wherever he plays.

Ryan is a tough one should we have gone early...doesn't matter we did and happy he is on our list. BT is frothing at the thought of it!

Ainsworth is great talent and will add to our playing group solid pick

Petrucelle is quick! We all say we want pace..well this is the line breaker, give him a couple of years to strengthen and should hopefully play

Brayshaw, I think this a great pick so late, the family name obviously brings quality, Round 1 2018

All in all very pleased with the draft, it is a good mix to add to all lines!

 

[ArdentEagle]

The one that worries me the most is Petrucelle.
He looks extremely raw, doesn't look to be able to read the game well at all. Running patterns are reminiscent of a headless Chook from what I can tell from the vids. (may be different live)

He is from a basketball background however, ex basketballers tend to transition well, good 360 vision so that's a positive.

 

[dajesmac]

No take Ryan at 26 and Worpel at 32.

So Allen, L Fogarty, Ryan, Worpel, Ainsworth and Brayshaw.

L Fogarty for Brander? Blegh

 

[squashface]

L Fogarty for Brander? Blegh

Yeah would much rather take Higgins and Allen over Allen and LFog

 

[kranky al]

Ha i like this.

So if we don't win a flag in the time that Brander plays for us, then you were right.

I'll give that logic a go....

Hawthorn and Richmond has shown us that you don't win flags without a Rioli.

So if we win a flag while Willie Rioli plays with us, then its because of him

Is that Rioli how you think it works?

What brander bullshit you peddling?


This guy

Willie ever give up?

 

[Wadsworth]

OK, time for me to add my 2c to this thread. It's been on my list of things to do for 2 weeks and I thought I'd better actually prioritise my life and get this Bigfooty post done rather than wasting my time at work doing what I'm paid for. I understand that my 2c is not worth a lot these days. My expertise gained from watching a few minutes of Youtube videos along with a proprietary algorithm I have developed to predict the future doesn't really carry a lot of weight.

Pick 13: Jarrod Brander
Slightly Negative.
I would have picked Higgins. I would have had Higgins, Lachlan Fogarty and Oscar Allen as potentials at 13 and would have just gone with Higgins. I can understand the rationale of picking the best KPP rather than the 11th best mid. And I understand the questions about whether Higgins can genuinely move to the midfield, but that would have been my pick.

Pick 21: Oscar Allen
Extremely Positive.
I would have picked Allen.
Allen and L Fogarty were in the mix for me at 13, so with both still available at 21 I was pretty ecstatic. With Brander selected at 13, I was really mixed as to whether we should have taken Fogarty over Allen given our need for mids. But with the potential for Allen to transition to midfield, I think this is an ideal pick. Potentially speculative - the idea of Allen to the midfield is probably quite likely to flop (and we end up with another 3rd tall as a fallback plan), but around this area of the draft and with multiple 2nd rounders, I think that is ideal. Exceptionally high upside if he can transition as a big midfielder, and a reasonable floor as a 3rd forward. Not even a consideration of picking Kelly at this point for me.

Pick 26: Liam Ryan
Slightly Negative
I would have picked Charlie Constable
When listening to the draft live, I was shocked at drafting 3 forwards with our first three picks. I found this pick most difficult to select myself. I was banking on Worpel at 32, so was reluctant to double up with Constable here. But I would have thought he was the best available and fills a position of need as a pure mid. With hindsight (and my raging optimistic bias when it comes to West Coast), I can see the appeal of the selection of Liam Ryan here. I felt it was a massive reach - but he genuinely has the potential to be a real game-breaker. And at pick 26 (and again with multiple other picks to target 'safer' selections, I can see the reason to reach and guarantee we get our target. Even if it's only a 5-10% chance that Liam Ryan becomes an elite mid-sized forward, that genuine potential to be elite is probably worth reaching for.

Pick 32: Brayden Ainsworth
Negative
I would have picked James Worpel (given WCEs picks) or if we'd taken Constable, I would have gone with a bit more x-factor and picked Charlie Ballard
With my mock draft and youtube based expertise, Ainsworth was undoubtedly a reach and wasn't on my radar. Worpel was my hope for 32 right from the start and he was available.

Pick 38: Jake Petrucelle
Very Positive
I would have picked Worpel, but do like the outcome with Petrucelle
I also would have been intrigued with a slider in Nathan Murphy or Charlie Ballard even though they don't really seem to fill a need for us. This pick would also be where I would have looked at Liam Ryan, but we'll never know if he would have been available. But overall, I really like the pick of Petrucelle. The speed is enticing and as much as I see the comparison to Ash Smith, I am hoping that Petrucelle is a smart athlete who has a good ability to learn the game, but just lacks the experience as opposed to Smith who just didn't appear to be a smart athlete. Again, with so many picks, it seems that we have been prepared to roll the dice on real upside potential between Allen, Ryan and Petrucelle.

Pick 68: Hamish Brayshaw
Positive
I would have picked Hamish Brayshaw
But only because I don't really know any better and his name was thrown around a bit.

Pick 77: Pass
Neutral
I would have picked Bailey Banfield.
With my simplistic (and somewhat uninformed) view, I don't really see how someone like Ainsworth can be a mid 2nd Rounder after playing a dozen games in the ressies, but Banfield gets passed over entirely after winning his clubs B&F at league level. The knock on Banfield seems to be his kicking, but at pick 77, you don't get any ideal prospects, so I would have rolled the dice on Banfield.