List Mgmt. Draft Watch 2015

[FAITH]

a lot of games being played at the moment it seems between clubs

 

[Vader]

Right I follow you, but I would say that is a result of the points system rather than the actual bidding process itself, I thought you meant that things would change on the night when clubs start bidding. The effects on us of the new system have already happened, we just don't know the end result yet.

Narrow distinction, but accurate. It's the change to the new system which has created the problem (for us).

 

[Vader]

The AFL should have reserved the accumulation of points for academy/FS picks only for the draft night itself. All it's done is allowed bottom feeders like MelTank to use playstation trades to weasel their way up the draft order. It should have been done on as as needs basis i.e. instead of clubs guessing how much points they need, they should only be able to negotiate with other clubs for more points once a club nominates them. What if a club only needs half the points they accumulated? Now a club like Melbourne could be unfairly advantaged because another club guessed incorrectly how much points they'd need.

I don't like the new system anyway. Look at Heeney last year. Sydney would have still got him for 18 if MelTank bid pick 2, they would have also just had to give away a whole bunch of meaningless late picks away too which they wouldn't care about anyway.

Not sure if you understand how the system works....

Let's use Sydney as an example, with Callum Mills. Sydney currently have picks 33 (563pts), 36 (502), 37 (483), 44 (362), 54 (220), 69 (49). Let's assume that Melbourne select Mills at #3. Selection #3 is worth 2234pts. Sydney get a 20% discount, so they have to come up with 1787pts. Pick 33 effectively becomes #3 and they also lose picks 36, 37, which move to the back of the draft. They still owe 239 points, so pick #44 moves down to #62 (362-239=123=pick #62).

All of the picks now get shuffled up (not just Sydney's), to fill the gaps created by Sydney's picks going to the end of the draft. 54->51, 62->59, 69->67.

Sydney now have pick #3 (Mills), 51, 59, 67, and the last 2 selections in the draft.

If Sydney were to burn all of their points, then they would just have to take all of their remaining selections at the end of the draft. If they don't burn all of them, then they don't have to wait for the very end of the draft before making their next selection.

 

[PrideOf]

Not sure if you understand how the system works....

Let's use Sydney as an example, with Callum Mills. Sydney currently have picks 33 (563pts), 36 (502), 37 (483), 44 (362), 54 (220), 69 (49). Let's assume that Melbourne select Mills at #3. Selection #3 is worth 2234pts. Sydney get a 20% discount, so they have to come up with 1787pts. They lose picks 33, 36, 37, which move to the back of the draft. They still owe 239 points, so pick #44 moves down to #62 (362-239=123=pick #62).

All of the picks now get shuffled up (not just Sydney's), to fill the gaps created by Sydney's picks going to the end of the draft. 54->50, 62->58, 69->66.

Sydney now have pick #3 (Mills), 50, 58, 66, and the last 3 selections in the draft.

If Sydney were to burn all of their points, then they would just have to take all of their remaining selections at the end of the draft. If they don't burn all of them, then they don't have to wait for the very end of the draft before making their next selection.

Based on the AFL's track record of ****ing up every single decision they make because they make it overly complicated, I can't wait for draft night when their new software creates a black hole or something.

 

[Vader]

Based on the AFL's track record of ******* up every single decision they make because they make it overly complicated, I can't wait for draft night when their new software creates a black hole or something.

I think there are a lot of people hoping/expecting that to happen.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Endurance and kicking are the biggest "knock", and pedestrian pace wise, probably why he's slipping??

He will be a good above average player but nothing more ...not a terrible selection bit not a great one

Succeeded at every level so not a bust

Think we are ok for above average inside mids

 

[Jeffcrowe]

a lot of games being played at the moment it seems between clubs

This will be the new normal

All the phantoms were wrong last year and will be again this year as why would you show your cards

 

[Danger in Texas]

Jeffcrowe who do you think is more likely with our pick 13 - Tucker or Hibberd? Would love either myself.

 

[1990crow]

Interesting if Burton goes to Blues at 11. McKay linked to them at 8 for them as well. Makes sense, fix the key spots first and then take miss second.
Weitering, Schache, Curnow/Parish, Parish/Curnow, Weideman, Milera, Oliver, McKay, Francis, Burton, Ah Chee top 12

 

[Archie87]

Not sure if you understand how the system works....

Let's use Sydney as an example, with Callum Mills. Sydney currently have picks 33 (563pts), 36 (502), 37 (483), 44 (362), 54 (220), 69 (49). Let's assume that Melbourne select Mills at #3. Selection #3 is worth 2234pts. Sydney get a 20% discount, so they have to come up with 1787pts. Pick 33 effectively becomes #3 and they also lose picks 36, 37, which move to the back of the draft. They still owe 239 points, so pick #44 moves down to #62 (362-239=123=pick #62).

All of the picks now get shuffled up (not just Sydney's), to fill the gaps created by Sydney's picks going to the end of the draft. 54->51, 62->59, 69->67.

Sydney now have pick #3 (Mills), 51, 59, 67, and the last 2 selections in the draft.

If Sydney were to burn all of their points, then they would just have to take all of their remaining selections at the end of the draft. If they don't burn all of them, then they don't have to wait for the very end of the draft before making their next selection.

I understand the essence of it. They're still using pick 33 and a whole bunch of other crappy picks shuffled around to get a gun like Mills.

Using Heeney again as an example with a Melbourne bid of pick 2: Sydney get him + pick 64 (a meaningless pick in the scheme of things) for 18, 37, 38, 57.

So a sort-of good pick (18) + a whole bunch of mediocre picks (where statistically the player has an extremely low chance of making it) lands them an elite talent. That screams playstation trades.

 

[Draft Bored]

Looks like the Blues will snap up Burton at pick 11. The Carlton poster who advised this has an impeccable record.

If that's the case and we get to pick 9 with both Francis and Milera available we should land both.

9 Francis
10 Academy Currency
11 Burton
12 Ah Chee/Gresham
13 Milera

At which point the majority of the crowd will simultaneously drop their pants and perform the largest circle jerk humanity has ever witnessed.

 

[FAITH]

are the blues trying to force adelaide into taking burton early, leaking info that they may take him at 11?

 

[Draft Bored]

And just on that, it could very well happen if Brett Anderson is close:

 

[1990crow]

are the blues trying to force adelaide into taking burton early, leaking info that they may take him at 11?

Possibly. They may want Francis at 11. Francis has to be ahead of Burton for us.

 

[Vader]

I understand the essence of it. They're still using pick 33 and a whole bunch of other crappy picks shuffled around to get a gun like Mills.

Using Heeney again as an example with a Melbourne bid of pick 2: Sydney get him + pick 64 (a meaningless pick in the scheme of things) for 18, 37, 38, 57.

So a sort-of good pick (18) + a whole bunch of mediocre picks (where statistically the player has an extremely low chance of making it) lands them an elite talent. That screams playstation trades.

It also means that they get one good player, but that's pretty much all they get out of the draft. That's not sustainable over any period of time.

For example, this year they will get Mills, but they will also have to make 5 selections at 50+ in a draft where most recruiters say the talent will be gone before #30. In other words, to select one gun they condemn themselves to also picking 5 very low probability players.

Repeat that over multiple years and you have a team with a few elite talents surrounded by a large number of players who just aren't AFL standard. They will have zero depth.

Sustainable list management requires bringing in an average of 2-3 decent players every year. You just can't do that if you only have one top-50 selection every year.

Swings and roundabouts.

 

[Stiffy_18]

If that's the case and we get to pick 9 with both Francis and Milera available we should land both.

9 Francis
10 Academy Currency
11 Burton
12 Ah Chee/Gresham
13 Milera

At which point the majority of the crowd will simultaneously drop their pants and perform the largest circle jerk humanity has ever witnessed.

I still think Milera will go to Gold Coast. Franis appears to be the player that will slide to 9 which would be great for us Carlton is one clib that can afford to take a game on Burton considering how many pick they have inside 20.

I am starting to think that Tucker is likely to be our choice at 13. I am OK with this and he seems to have a lot off attributes that we like in oir draftees. Buckenarra on road to the draft podcast had Darcy Tucker as top 10 player in this draft and said he is an absolute beauty.

 

[Draft Bored]

I still think Milera will go to Gold Coast. Franis appears to be the player that will slide to 9 which would be great for us Carlton is one clib that can afford to take a game on Burton considering how many pick they have inside 20.

I am starting to think that Tucker is likely to be our choice at 13. I am OK with this and he seems to have a lot off attributes that we like in oir draftees. Buckenarra on road to the draft podcast had Darcy Tucker as top 10 player in this draft and said he is an absolute beauty.

I'd be happy with Tucker as well. Love the look of him. I just hope we land one of Francis or Milera at 9.

 

[Draft Bored]

are the blues trying to force adelaide into taking burton early, leaking info that they may take him at 11?

I agree. No club will be picking Burton in the top 15 at this stage.

His medical is Wednesday next week.

 

[hendo8888]

Does anyone else see Bernie Vince in Oliver? He's who he reminds me of.

 

[1990crow]

And just on that, it could very well happen if Brett Anderson is close:

Going by this we could take Francis at 12, Blues take Burton at 13, Richmond choose Ah Chee because Milera has shown signs that he would come home eventually and we get Francis and Milera.

 

[GrommoT]

If that's the case and we get to pick 9 with both Francis and Milera available we should land both.

9 Francis
10 Academy Currency
11 Burton
12 Ah Chee/Gresham
13 Milera

At which point the majority of the crowd will simultaneously drop their pants and perform the largest circle jerk humanity has ever witnessed.

Spoiler

[]
[]
[]
[]

[]
[]

[]

[]
[]
[]
[]

[]

 

[Sanders]

The club regards him as a KPD. Whether you do or not really doesn't matter. Whether you rate him or not really doesn't matter. The fact is that the club regards him as a KPD option and has regularly used him in that role in the past.

You just made that up

 

[Crowked]

I understand the essence of it. They're still using pick 33 and a whole bunch of other crappy picks shuffled around to get a gun like Mills.

Using Heeney again as an example with a Melbourne bid of pick 2: Sydney get him + pick 64 (a meaningless pick in the scheme of things) for 18, 37, 38, 57.

So a sort-of good pick (18) + a whole bunch of mediocre picks (where statistically the player has an extremely low chance of making it) lands them an elite talent. That screams playstation trades.

Screams bullshit to me. Wish we could trade up our junk picks for some top shelf.

 

[deeztreez]

Screams bullshit to me. Wish we could trade up our junk picks for some top shelf.

U may get your wish next year with Jarman Jnr. That's off course if he steps up a level...and nominates us

 

[huludicidal]

If that's the case and we get to pick 9 with both Francis and Milera available we should land both.

9 Francis
10 Academy Currency
11 Burton
12 Ah Chee/Gresham
13 Milera

At which point the majority of the crowd will simultaneously drop their pants and perform the largest circle jerk humanity has ever witnessed.

Haha it would be quite a scene.

Gold Coast's pick 6 looms as a real game-changer though. So many different ways they could go there.