Recruiting Draft Watch 2020

[eDPS]

Spoiler: eDPS 2020 Phantom Draft

Spoiler: Lore's 2020 Draft Order

Any issues with the below please tag Lore in this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2020-future-pick-tracker.1229399/unread/

Spoiler: Draft Central Draft Guide

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I don’t envy Twomey on this one though. A stack of clubs with multiple first round picks would not want to be showing their hands.

 

[andleanback]

What gives you more insight than Twomey has?

It’s not about insight it’s common sense. Perkins isn’t going to be ranked top 5-6 by some clubs 3 weeks ago then suddenly slip to 16, their boards would’ve been almost finalized weeks ago. So either he was talking s**t saying he’s this years ‘bolter‘ and that hawthorn and essendon were very keen on him early or he’s just guessing all together. I think his sources may have dried up this year, with clubs keeping their cards close to their chest in such an open draft. Also it doesn’t make sense to bid on campbell with our 3rd pick, we would bid on him with our first if we like him as it would increase the chance of us getting him.

 

[Duckworth]

Very shortsightedly...

We have little to no proven players in that area. Maybe this isn't the thread for you, if you don't like people talking about draft prospects.

 

[Yoda_]

A lot of people's views here are driven by the club's aversion to big body mids that we have in our minds will change the destiny of the club once we get such as specimen. As such, "we" are desperate for a Perkins or McInnes. And we think Cox could become superman whereas Reid is a bit vanilla. Am very happy to leave it to the recruiting guys to make the right choices here as I certainly don't know enough to second guess what they might do. We have 3 good picks and will be able to bring in 3 guys with terrific prospects (subject to pick trading of course). Maybe 1 of the top 5 slides and we get them, maybe we take a punt on someone unexpected. Am happy to see it play its course.*

* I reserve the right to throw a tanty against Dodo later of course.

when you haven't had one for 10 years you become fixated on that bar of gold you've always wanted.

 

[Duckworth]

I don’t envy Twomey on this one though. A stack of clubs with multiple first round picks would not want to be showing their hands.

I don't think this year has many tactics for us (unless we trade a pick). Otherwise, the clubs before us take who they want, then we get an uninterrupted run of 3 that we can decide what to do with.

 

[MarkJohnson#1]

We have little to no proven players in that area. Maybe this isn't the thread for you, if you don't like people talking about draft prospects.

Merely pointing out that people are very quick to write off 17-18 year olds they have either never seen play or don't have the foresight to see their potential.

There are many factors at play when managing a list, particularly with free agency, NGA, father sons all at play. Also have to remember who we draft now won't necessarily have an impact for another 3-5 years, during which time a lot can change.

 

[Seagrave_Holmes]

Fingers crossed Twomey is doing us a solid by having Perkins and Cox as two sliders...

 

[citizen-erased]

A lot of people's views here are driven by the club's aversion to big body mids that we have in our minds will change the destiny of the club once we get such as specimen. As such, "we" are desperate for a Perkins or McInnes. And we think Cox could become superman whereas Reid is a bit vanilla. Am very happy to leave it to the recruiting guys to make the right choices here as I certainly don't know enough to second guess what they might do. We have 3 good picks and will be able to bring in 3 guys with terrific prospects (subject to pick trading of course). Maybe 1 of the top 5 slides and we get them, maybe we take a punt on someone unexpected. Am happy to see it play its course.*

* I reserve the right to throw a tanty against Dodo later of course.

i think most of us are hoping we do a Buddy/Roughead/Lewis, whereas some of us are more worried about a Dow/LOB outcome so would take a Serong/Young/Henry

 

[Duckworth]

Merely pointing out that people are very quick to write off 17-18 year olds they have either never seen play or don't have the foresight to see their potential.

There are many factors at play when managing a list, particularly with free agency, NGA, father sons all at play. Also have to remember who we draft now won't necessarily have an impact for another 3-5 years, during which time a lot can change.

I agree that all those are factors. But things don't change if you don't make them change. For example, if you keep drafting undersized mid-fielders, that is what your mid-field in 3-5 years will look like. This is the reason why our midfield looks like it does.

 

[Fin ice Smuggler]

this is a fair point.

Who was the last truly elite player we drafted?
Lloyd?

Does Jobe count? Or not because he was father son?

 

[Corleone]

Of all years, this is the one to trust that RFK and Dodoro know what they are doing.

I mean, lets be honest, how many of us have watched a single full game featuring a bunch of guys who havent kicked a ball in anger in a competitive setting for 12 months like Perkins/Cox/Reid/Henry/Bruhn/etc.

Let alone pretend we have an educated opinion on their prowess and prospects at AFL level (unless your username is eDPS).

We are all guessing at this point based on what we read second, often third hand in the media. Dodoro has had some dud picks but i am gonna guess he and RFK, conservatively, know roughly 1000% more than i do about these guys, particularly in a year like 2020.

If they pick Bruhn/Reid/Henry as a trio, then selcome aboard lads.

Why? Why should we have faith in them?

This is the most crucial Draft we've had in the last two decades, we need to nail at least two of these selections if we want any kind of success on the horizon ... And I believe if it plays out like Cal has suggested we will be talking about the "what ifs" from it for the next decade.

 

[Keystone agony]

Of all years, this is the one to trust that RFK and Dodoro know what they are doing.

I mean, lets be honest, how many of us have watched a single full game featuring a bunch of guys who havent kicked a ball in anger in a competitive setting for 12 months like Perkins/Cox/Reid/Henry/Bruhn/etc.

Let alone pretend we have an educated opinion on their prowess and prospects at AFL level (unless your username is eDPS).

We are all guessing at this point based on what we read second, often third hand in the media. Dodoro has had some dud picks but i am gonna guess he and RFK, conservatively, know roughly 1000% more than i do about these guys, particularly in a year like 2020.

If they pick Bruhn/Reid/Henry as a trio, then selcome aboard lads.

Even eDPS hasnt watched them for 12 months and jts not like hes going to fly around states to watch them live even though he might have others in other states. As far as im aware the majority of colts games are the same time so even if you go out every saturday your only watching about 15-20 games live

Lets be honest many that arent recruiters/scouts are making notes off youtube video clips and numbers from test and i know no scouts are spending much time here.

We can comment on list needs, talls, mediums, smalls in each area of the ground and like what we see in certain players but getting upset about picking Bruhn over Perkins is a little bit baffling.

In Dodoro and RFK i trust and if they stuff it up we will be trusting others. They all know twice as much as any of us on these players and for some to pretend that isnt the case is crazy.


Twomey provides all the info you need no one else has anything more that operates here on BF

 

[ant555]

I would have no issues if Cals prediction came through.

Bruhn is in the top few midfielders with exceptional skills. Genuine midfielder who can win contested footy and has class.
Reid is rated the second best defender. Tall , mobile and good skills.
Henry is a good marking flanker (forward or back) with a bit of X factor and it would not surprise to see him pushing up to a wing. Has speed. Strong mark. Goal kicker.

Some of you blokes just get tied to a few players which always leads to disappointment. There are plenty who have seen a bit of these blokes would say we have picked the best 3 players available.

Personally I like Perkins but Henry is a similar player. Also have a slight preference for Cox but only because he provides a forward potion as well and we will take Eyre and Brand who can also play KP defense.

Sure there is not tall midfielder or "bull" but at least there is a class midfielder. I suppose the only question with Bruhn is the knee issues but right now he is having no problems with it at all.

 

[Yoda_]

Im not overly enamoured with that draft haul to be honest

 

[andleanback]

Even eDPS hasnt watched them for 12 months and jts not like hes going to fly around states to watch them live even though he might have others in other states. As far as im aware the majority of colts games are the same time so even if you go out every saturday your only watching about 15-20 games live

Lets be honest many that arent recruiters/scouts are making notes off youtube video clips and numbers from test and i know no scouts are spending much time here.

We can comment on list needs, talls, mediums, smalls in each area of the ground and like what we see in certain players but getting upset about picking Bruhn over Perkins is a little bit baffling.

In Dodoro and RFK i trust and if they stuff it up we will be trusting others. They all know twice as much as any of us on these players and for some to pretend that isnt the case is crazy.


Twomey provides all the info you need no one else has anything more that operates here on BF

I’d argue that the draft central boys know the players inside out better than twomey. They rate the kids on their talent and with their eyes rather than clubs whispers from sources.

 

[ant555]

People have seen plenty and still regularly get it wrong. EVERYONE here can identify list needs though.

True. It is easy to sit and evaluate all the players and get some good results but the real challenge is to put yourself in the recruiters chair and participate in a phantom draft each year pitted against others. It is then you will find out if you are going at 60% you are in the elite bracket.

 

[Keystone agony]

It’s not about insight it’s common sense. Perkins isn’t going to be ranked top 5-6 by some clubs 3 weeks ago then suddenly slip to 16, their boards would’ve been almost finalized weeks ago. So either he was talking s**t saying he’s this years ‘bolter‘ and that hawthorn and essendon were very keen on him early or he’s just guessing all together. I think his sources may have dried up this year, with clubs keeping their cards close to their chest in such an open draft. Also it doesn’t make sense to bid on campbell with our 3rd pick, we would bid on him with our first if we like him as it would increase the chance of us getting him.

It doesnt take much for things to be turned against a player. It gets to everyone, the afl circle is pretty small and everyone talks to everyone.

It could be as simple as a poor interview or a medical issue. Or even new video footage that has only been found and heavily watched.

Weve seen players rise as quickly every year and this year again they can go backwarss just as fast on boards.

 

[Ati Tude]

Does Jobe count? Or not because he was father son?

I think Jobe counts. Can't exclude him just because father son. We have probably had guys who have been elite for a year but not done it consistently. We have quite a few guys who have been AA but just once. You might consider Hurley elite. Has been pretty good for many years. McGrath will be considered elite in due course.

 

[Keystone agony]

I’d argue that the draft central boys know the players inside out better than twomey. They rate the kids on their talent and with their eyes rather than clubs whispers from sources.

I think your under estimating how much Twomey watches aswell

But also hed know a hell alot more about what clubs are thinking with the players they like whereas others wouldnt and thats what im discussing here

 

[Duckworth]

True. It is easy to sit and evaluate all the players and get some good results but the real challenge is to put yourself in the recruiters chair and participate in a phantom draft each year pitted against others. It is then you will find out if you are going at 60% you are in the elite bracket.

Well, I will never have that responsibility. I'm just a fan enjoying the journey. We all know that every one after a day or 2 will forget who they were emotionally invested in before the draft and back in the Essendon players.

 

[JayJ20]

Staggering how many experts on here can a) rate a whole crop of players they have probably never seen play in numerical order and b) not rate a haul of players that they again have probably never seen play and have absolutely no idea how they will perform in an AFL setting...

Those players aren't individually bad. The top 10 at this stage are highly rated. Do they really complement our list though? There's a reason why most draft watchers believe players like Perkins, O'Driscoll and McInnes suit us the most.

If anyone needs a big bodied inside mid, it is Essendon. It doesn't make sense for us to go for Dunkley, fail to get him, then select a Henry type who we already have in spades when McInnes is available.

Bruhn is a classy inside mid that I'm happy with, but his injury history means he's a risky selection. We can't only rely on him as an inside mid. We already have Caldwell who also has an extensive injury history.
At 183cm and 74kg, he's also not big. He'd need at least one or two big bodies around him.

We should be selecting two of Perkins, McInnes, Bruhn or O'Driscoll and one of Reid and Cox.
If we're scared of reaching for O'Driscoll, trade back and select Henry and O'Driscoll with Collingwood's picks if we really want Henry.

We may not be experts, but anyone can see how inept Dodoro has been at drafting big bodied inside mids. Otherwise, I wouldn't even believe Twoomey's phantom draft. If he can't get it right with 3 top 10 picks, then he's never going to build a balanced list.

 

[Lore]

Just watched the video. I feel like he has very little confidence in his phantom draft. Hawks into cox and Perkins. They even interviewed Perkins again today. And apparently we’re keeping our cards close to our chests.

Historically it can change a fair bit in the last couple of days up to the draft, which is why he releases a 'late mail' version a few hours before the actual draft starts. Be interesting to see how much he can find out between now and then since the opportunities to overhear stuff or casually run into recruiting staff hasn't really materialised that much. I think part of his info would also be based on talking to draft kids (at games/combine etc) and them telling him how much interest they've had from different clubs. He'll have to be running the phones even more than usual...

 

[ant555]

I’d argue that the draft central boys know the players inside out better than twomey. They rate the kids on their talent and with their eyes rather than clubs whispers from sources.

I would argue Cal knows a bit. Sure he has the connections but he also has access to the games. To say otherwise is rubbish.
You seem to miss a really important part of talent identification. The ability to listen to other opinions.

 

[Howard Moon]

Something with Perkins is clearly turning clubs away hes the slider it seems

Love how Perkins can be the bolter and slider all before draft has even happened... That's the 24hr news cycle for ya

 

[TheGrizz]

Why? Why should we have faith in them?

This is the most crucial Draft we've had in the last two decades, we need to nail at least two of these selections if we want any kind of success on the horizon ... And I believe if it plays out like Cal has suggested we will be talking about the "what ifs" from it for the next decade.

Righto then.

Have you watched a singular full game (not highlights or twitter friendly clips) for the players you want drafted?

Can you tell me what performances or qualities you have watched of Bruhn/Reid/Henry that indicates to you that they wont be quality AFL level players?

Tell me, what level or basis of knowledge (other than 2nd or 3rd hand via the media) do you have that the guys you want drafted will be better players than Bruhn, Reid or Henry that would make this a 'what if'?

We watch the highlight videos of these guys and become experts. I still remember the cries of anguish when we took Ridley over Witherden.

The reality is that recruiting staff are tracking these kids from u16s onwards. The average punter really only pays any attention to u18s, so seeing that we havent had those this year, i will trust the club and the 3+ years of prior prep they have put in when making the decision, as i have no actual basis tp question it in this year of all years.