Recruiting Draft Watch 2020

[eDPS]

Spoiler: eDPS 2020 Phantom Draft

Spoiler: Lore's 2020 Draft Order

Any issues with the below please tag Lore in this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2020-future-pick-tracker.1229399/unread/

Spoiler: Draft Central Draft Guide

 

[Lore]

According to Knightmare four of our five draftees are 'reaches' – basically any Victorian KPP is a risk and therefore lower on his own draft board, so a 'reach'.

 

[blitzer]

According to Knightmare four of our five draftees are 'reaches' – basically any Victorian KPP is a risk and therefore lower on his own draft board, so a 'reach'.

In fairness he at least applies a fairly consistent 'formula' with how he evalutes KPP and with them all missing a year of footy unless they were already putting out elite numbers in their underage year it'd be pretty much impossible for him to be consistent and to rate the Victorian KPP's who all missed a year of footy and didn't get a chance to show their wares this year. The only Victorian KPP he rated highly was JUH who to be fair did average 2.7 goals a game in his underage year.

Actually we came off better than most teams, he at least rated Cox and Reid in the 20s even with his risk averse formula against KP's that didn't have strong production. He said Eyre was one of the better guys on the list that he went through as well. The only one he genuinely said shouldn't have been drafted was Brand.

Not that I'm saying I agree with him mind you but I like hearing different perspectives. I think having a year off could go both ways. We could get a bargain (a guy who would have gone higher if the year had gone ahead) or maybe we overpaid. We won't know for years.

 

[Lore]

In fairness he at least applies a fairly consistent 'formula' with how he evalutes KPP and with them all missing a year of footy unless they were already putting out elite numbers in their underage year it'd be pretty much impossible for him to be consistent and to rate the Victorian KPP's who all missed a year of footy and didn't get a chance to show their wares this year. The only Victorian KPP he rated highly was JUH who to be fair did average 2.7 goals a game in his underage year.

Actually we came off better than most teams, he at least rated Cox and Reid in the 20s even with his risk averse formula against KP's that didn't have strong production. He said Eyre was one of the better guys on the list that he went through as well. The only one he genuinely said shouldn't have been drafted was Brand.

Not that I'm saying I agree with him mind you but I like hearing different perspectives. I think having a year off could go both ways. We could get a bargain (a guy who would have gone higher if the year had gone ahead) or maybe we overpaid. We won't know for years.

It’s certainly interesting. I’d like to see him working for an AFL club one day. But not Essendon though, we have enough problems.

The thing is he says some of those guys were taken early but they were literally the last 2-3 picks in the draft. Any later and they were actual rookies or not drafted. So in reality those picks might as well have been 83 and 91 for all the difference it made — in a normal year 83-91 get two year contracts the same as everyone else.

Seems a bit like he has other kids he liked that would’ve slotted in before/between some of those guys on his draft board but maybe clubs went away from those kids for a reason, maybe they said something dodgy in their interviews or haven’t applied themselves at all this year and are out of shape or whatever. Who knows?

 

[andleanback]

I just think it is a good strategy even if it does look like we are slightly loaded with tall options right now. With next year looking to be a strong midfield draft we can afford to go that way next year. It only becomes an issue if we go tall again.
I have been waiting a long time for us to have some resemblance of a multi draft strategy.

If it comes to the draft next year and merrett doesn’t leave, we should
definitely trade our future 1st and grab 2 players. 5 1st rounders over 2 years would be great strategy, with Davey jnr the year to follow.

 

[blitzer]

The thing is he says some of those guys were taken early but they were literally the last 2-3 picks in the draft. Any later and they were actual rookies or not drafted. So in reality those picks might as well have been 83 and 91 for all the difference it made — in a normal year 83-91 get two year contracts the same as everyone else.

I also was a bit bemused by how the conversation around guys taken 40+ (which was really the tail end of this draft) was similar to how he discussed guys in the top 30. But as someone whose been reading phantom drafts and the like since about 2006 I've found his opinion and rankings to be pretty interesting over the journey. Sometimes he goes really well and other times not so well but you'd rather read from guys that at least have the courage to formulate their own opinion and not just mix up the standard predicted order slightly.

There is also always a fundamental difference from power rankings to phantom drafts. Essendon definitely had to take some talls this draft. Even if you agreed with his rankings from a list balance perspective we could hardly skip all the talls in our current situation. Especially with next year predicted to be much thinner on talls.

Personally I'm content with what we did in this draft and Cox would have absolutely been my first choice no doubt about it.

 

[Fin ice Smuggler]

If it comes to the draft next year and merrett doesn’t leave, we should
definitely trade our future 1st and grab 2 players. 5 1st rounders over 2 years would be great strategy, with Davey jnr the year to follow.

mmmm how do they get Dunkley then?

I think they’ll be targeting free agency.

 

[ant555]

According to Knightmare four of our five draftees are 'reaches' – basically any Victorian KPP is a risk and therefore lower on his own draft board, so a 'reach'.

So how do you pick to fill a KP void if your KP picks are a reach I wonder ?
I can say before the draft I would have gone two midfielders and Cox and I was not totally unhappy if we got Cals phantom haul but if you go by this logic we would be running out in 2023 with a team of midfielders.
Seems to be more about his power rankings and less about team building. Also does not take into account only 50 odd players where picked. Brand is a reach and he was one of the last few picked ? and yes there was rookie selections but a decent amount of them where list space dumps.

 

[andleanback]

mmmm how do they get Dunkley then?

I think they’ll be targeting free agency.

Who says dunkley will still want to move. Going to be a few taller mid types in the draft anyway.

 

[Old Campaigner]

mmmm how do they get Dunkley then?

I think they’ll be targeting free agency.

Dunkley probably becomes less of a priority because we don’t need that immediate impact he brings now we’re taking a long term approach to developing the list.

 

[ant555]

mmmm how do they get Dunkley then?

I think they’ll be targeting free agency.

They probably wont unless things go very pear shaped at the Dogs next year.

 

[Old Campaigner]

According to Knightmare four of our five draftees are 'reaches' – basically any Victorian KPP is a risk and therefore lower on his own draft board, so a 'reach'.

I can see where he’s coming from, I’m not convinced he’s arrived at the right conclusion though. Clubs will have had far better access to these players than some internet draft watcher and I’d back them to make an informed decision.

the one that I was surprised to see so highly rated was Bruhn, he probably wouldn’t have played much in the last two years and while there is a risk in picking someone who missed a single year,selecting someone who has missed two years seems fraught.

 

[ant555]

I can see where he’s coming from, I’m not convinced he’s arrived at the right conclusion though. Clubs will have had far better access to these players than some internet draft watcher and I’d back them to make an informed decision.

the one that I was surprised to see so highly rated was Bruhn, he probably wouldn’t have played much in the last two years and while there is a risk in picking someone who missed a single year,selecting someone who has missed two years seems fraught.

It is very plain where he is coming from. His power ranking v where they where actually picked.
Problem is you can not build a side off power rankings over a period of drafts.

 

[Call Me Cake]

I personally see it as,

#7 - Caldwell
#8 - Cox
#9 - Perkins
#10 - Reid

 

[JayJ20]

According to Knightmare four of our five draftees are 'reaches' – basically any Victorian KPP is a risk and therefore lower on his own draft board, so a 'reach'.

He is clearly more of an expert than I am, but I'd be more interested in hearing in-depth projections for those KPPs from his experience given the unique nature of this draft. Saying "I don't know how they would've gone and therefore it's risky/reaching" isn't really insightful.

Maybe a comparison with the non-vic KPPs who had a chance to play this year like Logan McDonald would be interesting. McDonald shot up the rankings because of his form. Knightmare didn't even have him in his top 20 at the start of this year. Who has the attributes to have done the same?

 

[Lore]

He is clearly more of an expert than I am, but I'd be more interested in hearing in-depth projections for those KPPs from his experience given the unique nature of this draft. Saying "I don't know how they would've gone and therefore it's risky/reaching" isn't really insightful.

Maybe a comparison with the non-vic KPPs who had a chance to play this year like Logan McDonald would be interesting. McDonald shot up the rankings because of his form. Knightmare didn't even have him in his top 20 at the start of this year. Who has the attributes to have done the same?

I think anyone with time and energy, who knows footy and has an ability to think clearly about what they're seeing (i.e. not too biased) would be quite capable of watching U18s and coming up with a comparable power ranking to be completely honest. Especially if you actually go to games and pay for the game footage of the interstate kids (not just watching highlights).

I don't mind his profiles of players in general as he's only reporting what he's seeing there, but I don't care for his rankings or his phantom draft (which was almost identical to Twomey's and they were both way off). I don't think his concept of how to build a list (as ant pointed out above) is quite on par with what an AFL recruiter would actually be doing – even a bad one. If you ever read his threads, his idea of what list needs are for various clubs also seems off.*

*Not that I spend a huge amount of time in there. It's the same people asking the same stupid questions over and over and then annoying spammy links to ESPN all over the place

 

[Keystone agony]

What does bringing in an extra midfielder now get us that getting one next year won't?

No one available at our picks was going to be the difference between finishing 13th and making finals.

Why not both is my thought, its about the period after that 12-24 months

A thin midfield with guys like Zacka and Heppell. As much as done as Hooker and Ambrose. Our best mid cant even commit

But we agree to disagree, as i said maybe the mid wasnt there and we rated Zac Reid that far ahead he was just worth taking over a Bruhn who i wasnt overly jumping out of my skin for. I liked Powell but the recruiters know more, Henry was probably the one that we were linked to and has some traits

 

[andleanback]

I personally see it as,

#7 - Caldwell
#8 - Cox
#9 - Perkins
#10 - Reid

Shouldnt it
Be
8 - cox
9 - perkins
10 - Reid
11 - Caldwell

 

[Fin ice Smuggler]

Who says dunkley will still want to move. Going to be a few taller mid types in the draft anyway.

I’d be surprised he stays and we still require a midfield beast. Whether that equates to him nominating us again remains to be seen.

 

[Ati Tude]

Interesting, obviously we were prepared to take 6 players if the right type was available.

Maybe we were trying to trade up to get O'Driscoll eDPS

That's a really interesting article. Highly recommend reading it to get a feel for what goes on during the draft. Must be pretty intense. People complain the picks take too long but when you understand the wheeling and dealing going on around pick trades, you understand why it takes so long.

 

[The Prosecutor]

That's a really interesting article. Highly recommend reading it to get a feel for what goes on during the draft. Must be pretty intense. People complain the picks take too long but when you understand the wheeling and dealing going on around pick trades, you understand why it takes so long.

The draft would've been much more bearable if the first round went as quickly as the recruiters were actually submitting their picks. The broadcaster forcing the full five minutes to fit in an interview with every first rounder was beyond painful.

For instance, Adelaide submitted the JUH bid within 20 seconds yet Fox Footy let it run for minutes.

 

[EnolaGay]

So who of the draftees will get a game first and which round?

I'm going Cox for R6.

Edit:

R1

JT_the_Man & ghostdog - Perkins
Old Campaigner - Cox

R4

JayJ20 - Perkins

R6

EnolaGay - Cox

 

[JayJ20]

So who of the draftees will get a game first and which round?

I'm going Cox for R6.

Perkins round 4

 

[JT_the_Man]

So who of the draftees will get a game first and which round?

I'm going Cox for R6.

Perkins round 1.

 

[Old Campaigner]

So who of the draftees will get a game first and which round?

I'm going Cox for R6.

Edit:

R1

JT_the_Man - Perkins

R4

JayJ20 - Perkins

R6

EnolaGay - Cox

Cox

 

[Megabattimus]

Perkins round 1.

Yeah if I was Rutten I would be taking Perkins aside first day of pre-season, showing him a whiteboard of the Round 1 team with his name on the half forward flank or wing, and telling him that the spot's his if he wants it. Basically treat Perkins like he's our Matt Rowell

18

Matt Rowell

Age

22

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

. He probably won't have the same impact on the league that Rowell did in his first few games (like he won't lead the Brownlow for a hot second or anything). But I feel like he can be huge for us like Rowell was for Gold Coast.