Recruiting Draft Watch 2021

[eDPS]

eDPS's 2021 Draft Rankings

Lore's 2021 Provisional Draft Order
Any issues with it please tag Lore in this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2021-provisional-draft-order.1251001/

 

[Ants]

We would have to think Sinn a significant step above to ignore the bigger bodies with more of a track record in the middle of the ground that look to be around the mark.

Depth in the back is certainly an issue but given we’re essentially recruiting the run and gun distributor version of Jordan Ridley I hardly think it’s a need. Either that or we’re certain he’s actually a midfielder, and a fine one at that.

Or the club is rating kicking and/or speed higher when considering who is best available.

 

[ant555]

Out of balance for talls as it is especially developing ones, Amiss is still a few years away from playing senior footy.

It would be but often you need a little stockpile of developing talls. He is not my outright choice in either player or position but if they went that way after having a deliberate look at some of his games and some cut vision from other games I could understand why.

 

[Godzke]

You can't have it both ways. You can't say defence isn't a problem because you can play a midfielder down back, and then say we need more mids. If we need more mids, we can't afford to play McGrath back.

yes you can have it both ways because he said "rotate"

McGrath is likely to be part of our second midfield rotation which means he needs a rotation spot in defence (as he offers very little up forward)

Likely best midfield set up with club taking a long view on Cox
C: Cox Merrett Langford
R: Draper Parish Caldwell

 

[Godzke]

Yep you’re right. The reason for that is that I’ve had this spreadsheet for several years, I just change the URL for the source info each year. So most of the data is differentials (A/B) and a couple of columns I’ve changed the formula without updating the title because it was purely for my own purposes, such as the bubble graphs I shared a little later.

The people I was replying to were only interested in the CP differential, and that part is calculated as I said (I probably should’ve hidden the anomalous rows when I took the screenshot).

iirc the clearance differential is (A/B)-1 which means the average of that column should be 0.

The forward and defence efficiency isn’t a differential, it’s inside 50s per scoring shot for (attack) and against (defence) – origin of the bubble graphs.

no worries

I've got a hypothesis that maybe you can test .... Essendon's aggregate goals kicked from top 5 goal kickers / total goals kicked = a much lower ratio than most clubs. I feel like Essendon and Melbourne may have a more even spread of GKers than most clubs.

 

[Lore]

no worries

I've got a hypothesis that maybe you can test .... Essendon's aggregate goals kicked from top 5 goal kickers / total goals kicked = a much lower ratio than most clubs. I feel like Essendon and Melbourne may have a more even spread of GKers than most clubs.

Essendon: 150/291 51%

AFL Tables - Essendon - 2021 Game by Game Player Stats

Melbourne: 186/323 57%

AFL Tables - Melbourne - 2021 Game by Game Player Stats

Carlton: 125/250 50% (they would have a much more even spread without H. McKay’s 58 goals, almost 25% by himself)

AFL Tables - Carlton - 2021 Game by Game Player Stats

Adelaide: 129/230 56%

AFL Tables - Adelaide - 2021 Game by Game Player Stats

I’m adding these manually so sorry if there are errors

Western Bulldogs: 171/339 50%

AFL Tables - Western Bulldogs - 2021 Game by Game Player Stats

Brisbane: 196/333 58%

AFL Tables - Brisbane Lions - 2021 Game by Game Player Stats

Is that the trend you were expecting to see? You can do the rest

 

[Steve94]

If i was Richmond id definitely be giving up 17 and one of those picks 28-30 for 13/14 if hes available there

Completely hypothetical I know but a trade like that would also give us a chance to use our F2 + 28 to move up and draft someone who slips out of the first round.

If he's there at 13 a WA club might be pretty keen to trade up for him too

 

[Zach Package]

You and I see Jordan Ridley in a very different light if you are trying to find a similarity between him and Sinn.
Looking at our game style and what we want to do Sinn is actually a good fit and he is not small. He would be different to what we do have on the list.

Ridley is as quick, as good a kick and now that Kelly is around will hopefully be released with a little more freedom, he’s essentially found money in that role given the degree with which he was shackled this year.

Im certainly not doubting he can play but I’m going to take some convincing another running defender is top of mind given the guys currently in the side do it well enough, they’re all young enough and we’re playing McGrath out of position as well essentially because we can.

If we think he can play as a genuine winger or midfielder then he becomes more appealing because that is where we are thin.

If we’re talking smalls that aren’t primarily midfielders I can’t believe I’m saying this but even the small forward makes more sense as far as what we spend our big chip at the draft on.

 

[Keystone agony]

That’s very very expensive. The F4 is a nothing pick, 23 will move back and the thirds move forward. So it’s really saying we’re willing to trade two decent thirds and a second for #25. And saying we’re happy taking a guy at 80 odd rather than in the forties.

I could see us doing that for a specific player we REALLY rated, similar to what we did with Jones. But any deal for #23 must occur within the first few picks. We’ll have no idea who will be available. I can’t see us overpaying to such a degree on a long shot.

As you said you need to overpay if we rate that 15-25 group

F4 if crows come last is pick 55 and probably comes in draft night, valuable points

It wont be 80, it will be low 60s. Twomey the other day said this draft could challenge last years for the least amount taken and expected mid 50s to low 60s to be taken. Wouldnt end up far away from 56 as it is we have right now

 

[Keystone agony]

If were taking Sinn as priortiy we should be trading back and taking him or Willmot whoevers left

Id rather use a later pick on a back flanker than pick 11(13)

As much as our depth isnt great right now we still have options. Play taller, send Francis to a half back flank, Play Cutler, Play Durham, Try Guelfi as plan E. Play Dev Smith as plan F. Its not horrible

Still we need to find a non tall back

 

[Keystone agony]

Completely hypothetical I know but a trade like that would also give us a chance to use our F2 + 28 to move up and draft someone who slips out of the first round.

If he's there at 13 a WA club might be pretty keen to trade up for him too

The good thing is 1 of these guys will be available at 13

M.Andrew
Gibcus
Rachelle
Ward
Amiss
Wanganeen
Erazmus
M.Johnson
Hobbs

And depending who that is, its either really appealing to us or another side in my opinion. I think the next tier appears to be after 13/14

 

[Yoda_]

I can't believe there's still a month of this sh*t to go

The AFL’s ongoing desire to be front and centre 24/7 with no let up throughout the year.

Us plebs love it despite how much we say we hate it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[eDPS]

Ridley is as quick

Sinn plays a hell of a lot quicker than Ridley does, A taller version of Hind more like it which wouldn’t be bad for depth but we don’t draft top 20 players for depth.

 

[Keystone agony]

Sinn plays a hell of a lot quicker than Ridley does, A taller version of Hind more like it which wouldn’t be bad for depth but we don’t draft top 20 players for depth.

Everyone walks in the door as depth unless your a Walsh, Rowell ect really a dominant pick 1

 

[eDPS]

Everyone walks in the door as depth unless your a Walsh, Rowell ect really a dominant pick 1

It’s not what i meant, I don’t expect any draftee to be a walk up start but these days you certainly expect first round picks to play somewhat regularly in their first or second years unless they are KPP/Ruck

 

[Keystone agony]

It’s not what i meant, I don’t expect any draftee to be a walk up start but these days you certainly expect first round picks to play somewhat regularly in their first or second years unless they are KPP/Ruck

I wouldn't say there are that many of the 60 drafted who play regularly year 1 or even year 2 for that matter

But i guess it depends on your definition of regularly

It also depends on the quality of AFL side ie Geelong with their kids

 

[TheGrizz]

It’s not what i meant, I don’t expect any draftee to be a walk up start but these days you certainly expect first round picks to play somewhat regularly in their first or second years unless they are KPP/Ruck

If we were to go Sinn I imagine it wouldn't take much for him to take Cutler's spot?

 

[Keystone agony]

If we were to go Sinn I imagine it wouldn't take much for him to take Cutler's spot?

Cutlers not best 22

But injuries are a regular part of AFL

 

[eDPS]

I wouldn't say there are that many of the 60 drafted who play regularly year 1 or even year 2 for that matter

But i guess it depends on your definition of regularly

It also depends on the quality of AFL side ie Geelong with their kids

It would be expected of atleast the 18 first round picks though, although he isn’t a first rounder but close Ridley is an exception to the rule with a lot of the young stars of the comp who went in the first round are close to if not regulars for their side no matter how strong that team is

 

[Keystone agony]

It would be expected of atleast the 18 first round picks though, although he isn’t a first rounder but close Ridley is an exception to the rule with a lot of the young stars of the comp who went in the first round are close to if not regulars for their side no matter how strong that team is

Sinn would likely be in our best 8 defenders and best 4 wingers by year 1/2

Injuries would get him regular opportunity

Also wouldnt put it past a 1st round hbf to be past Hind/Redman/Kelly in 2 years time either. Obviously situational to how much that player comes on

At the end of the day all you need to be is depth to get regular games as injuries are regular

Georgiades a classic example not in the beat side as seen by finals but plays 20 games during the year which would be regular

Liam Henry another example, im not sure hed be best 22 at Fremantle, played 17 of 22 games. Is that regular? Id say so

I guess what im saying is i wouldnt not draft someone early because theyll be depth early in their career especially at 13. Goater for example i dont know where hed fit in either but he would get games if hes good enough and injurys will help that. The same can even be said about Johnson and Erazmus with our side. They no doubt start their AFL journeys on forward flanks are they picked ahead of Caldwell, Perkins, Snelling or Tippa in year 1 or 2? You wouldnt think so but injuries will occur and if theyre that good they will find a game

 

[Vindicater]

Knevitt might be a good look although slightly early.

If not, who will conplement Perkins the most.

 

[Keystone agony]

Knevitt might be a good look although slightly early.

If not, who will conplement Perkins the most.

Our list is very balanced.

Very interesting to see what way we go with our first rounder

Id rather we dont take a small defender with a pick that high but also see it as a need to get one in. If its Sinn i hope its because we see him as a future midfielder like Goater.

Less reliance on Perkins needing to become a pure inside mid if we draft an Erazmus, MJ or Goater or see Sinn as that.

 

[Cup_o_Jobe]

I hope we pick the good players and also that the teams competing in the same window as us pick the not quite as good players get it done Dodo

 

[ant555]

Ridley is as quick, as good a kick and now that Kelly is around will hopefully be released with a little more freedom, he’s essentially found money in that role given the degree with which he was shackled this year.

Im certainly not doubting he can play but I’m going to take some convincing another running defender is top of mind given the guys currently in the side do it well enough, they’re all young enough and we’re playing McGrath out of position as well essentially because we can.

If we think he can play as a genuine winger or midfielder then he becomes more appealing because that is where we are thin.

If we’re talking smalls that aren’t primarily midfielders I can’t believe I’m saying this but even the small forward makes more sense as far as what we spend our big chip at the draft on.

The issue with Ridley is they tried to get him up the ground playing high flank or wing in the VFL a few years ago and he was average. He is not the player that is going to take off up the ground with a bounce and if he is quick then Sinn will win a medal in the 100m at the next Olympics. Ridley is a great intercept mark and a very good user of the ball but he is not a dashing half back. He is an A grade intercept marker. We need him to be that. Kelly will help him plat that role better and more often.
If anything Kelly may release Redman to play more up the ground.

If you look at our game plan Sinn is a natural. Speed , decent skills , medium size and can play half back or midfield. Yes he can play midfield and he can also play wing. He provides us with a bit more run and spread which we can also use. He is simply not just a half back. He has had exposure playing half back / half forward and midfield .

On the slide from top five, Sinn could be an AFL draft bargain

Josh Sinn was widely viewed as a top-five prospect before the season started, but a series of injuries – coupled with multiple lockdowns in Victoria – prevented the fleet-footed talent from hitting his best form.

www.theage.com.au

Sinn-tillating: The explosive No.1 contender who piled on 13kg in six months

When COVID-19 robbed Josh Sinn of a year of footy, he didn't waste any time getting ready for 2021

www.afl.com.au

Josh Sinn Draft Profile

central.rookieme.com

 

[Ants]

The AFL’s ongoing desire to be front and centre 24/7 with no let up throughout the year.

Us plebs love it despite how much we say we hate it

More to make sure the draft is after year 12 exams.

Sinn plays a hell of a lot quicker than Ridley does, A taller version of Hind more like it which wouldn’t be bad for depth but we don’t draft top 20 players for depth.

Outside of maybe Horne-Francis, is there any player who isn’t going to be depth? Hell, it is likely Perkins is depth.

 

[Wahooti Fandango]

Sinn plays a hell of a lot quicker than Ridley does, A taller version of Hind more like it which wouldn’t be bad for depth but we don’t draft top 20 players for depth.

I think this is most insightful and worth remembering.