DT 2011 Rookies Thread

[94_Eagles]

Basically people see a midprice strategy as bad idea because if your buying a 70 avg player and they go onto avg 90 in the midfield than they still require a trade to upgrade. You might say well ill take 90 as my 6th mid but the rest of the field will be taking 105 as there 6th mid so your losing out on 15 points each week.

So midpricers that dont become keepers but improve by 15-20 points still require a trade.

Where as rookies also require a trade but can improve there price more and thus are better value. Rookies are priced at around 25 points (example) and if they improve to 50 which is quite easy than they are the better pick along with a premium than 2 midpricers that require 2 trades.

Its got to do with how easy they have made the game and thats sent the midprice strategy packing. I still think you can use it to win the entire comp but you need to nail alot more pics and make alot less mistakes.

The whole midprice strategy use to be if they work than you keep them (because you didnt need the perfect team) and if they dont work out than you downgrade to a good rookie on there bubble and make lots of money.

Now midpricers need to not only make "keeper" value to be kept but also need to push top 10 or at least top 15 for that position.

Its an interesting debate and i still think there is room for the midprice strategy. Its also interesting because we now have 24 trades, does that help the midprice strategy or the premium/rookie strategy??

I think it could possibly help the midprice strategy. Basically if you think a player is going to improve by 15 or more than PICK THEM, no matter what.

Examples: If you see
Greenwood avg 85+
Cotchin 90+
Scully 95+
Masten 80+

Than my advice would be to pick them. Even though all these require upgrades they have made you money and given you super job security in comparison to rookies. That was another major reason for midpricers but now rookies seem to have good job security from all the research and mature aged players picked up these days.

However it could also be argued that the new best 20 rule makes the midprice strategy even stronger.

At the end of the day ive never believed in there being such a midprice or premium/rookie strategy. You pick the best value players everyone does it. Just my belief, everyone has midpricers and premiums and rookies in every team.

Great post

 

[Impromptu]

...............

Examples: If you see
Greenwood avg 85+
Cotchin 90+
Scully 95+
Masten 80+

Than my advice would be to pick them. Even though all these require upgrades they have made you money and given you super job security in comparison to rookies. That was another major reason for midpricers but now rookies seem to have good job security from all the research and mature aged players picked up these days.

However it could also be argued that the new best 20 rule makes the midprice strategy even stronger.
At the end of the day ive never believed in there being such a midprice or premium/rookie strategy. You pick the best value players everyone does it. Just my belief, everyone has midpricers and premiums and rookies in every team.

Great post

I've got my eye on Greenwood, but still deciding.. I've always been a premium/rookies strategist but I agree with you comment 'However it could also be argued that the new best 20 rule makes the midprice strategy even stronger.'

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

The best "mid pricers" are those that go from 15-20ppg below the best premium in the position, to the top 2-3 players.

I personally dont consider them midpricers, but i get what your getting at??

However these players come across once in a blue moon. Swan, Montagna and Boyd are the latest examples and all wouldve been the best picks of that year.

Great post

I've got my eye on Greenwood, but still deciding.. I've always been a premium/rookies strategist but I agree with you comment 'However it could also be argued that the new best 20 rule makes the midprice strategy even stronger.'

Something i forgot to mention that could counteract that thought is the new side that will need to play 50% of rookies every week.

It would be interesting to see which midfield people think is better if you look at 6 true midpricers (that will improve by 15-20) vs 4 premiums and 2 rookies (that improve by 35)??

eg:
Ward, Cotchin, Scully, Greenwood, Masten, Mclean

VS

Swan, Hayes, Ablett, Montagna, Harris, Lock

Lets not consider Captains or fixtures in this question. Purely looking at it from a value perspective with the thoughts of how many trades will be used)

 

[Dr Awkward]

Coad looks to be behind Bock and Hutchins for the key back possys , not likely to play rd.1. Toy will play.

I'm surprised to hear you say that abot Coad, from what I have hear he is very highly rated at the club, won the coaches award AND the players award last year and surely at his age has been recruited to play in defense early on?

 

[WAnchor]

Although probably not technically a rookie since he was on Collingwood's books, what is the thinking relating to Danny Stanley?

 

[Schulzenfest]

In need of a MID/BAC rookie priced player to switch with Dyson Heppell. If VS weren't idiots Jasper Pittard would be my man, but for some reason he's listed as only a mid even though he spent all of last season in the backline and the coaches have publicly stated that's where he'll play. If Brodie Smith was available as a mid like he should've been, I could say the same about him. But VS are idiots, so here are the options (injured players excluded):

Michael Hibberd, Essendon, 92k
Taylor Hine, GC, 97k
Bradley Harvey, Brisbane, 106k
Dan Nicholson, Melbourne, 104k
Simon Buckley, Collingwood, 97k
Warrick Andreoli, STK, 80k

What do?

 

[Cat for Life]

Put him in the mid, you can sarti him with gibbs etc

 

[Schulzenfest]

Would prefer a rookie though. More flexibility.

 

[Jars458]

However it could also be argued that the new best 20 rule makes the midprice strategy even stronger.

Best 20 rule? Is this a dumb question?

 

[Cruiser23]

Best 20 rule? Is this a dumb question?

With the new sub rule, only 21 players are able to take the field with 1 as a substitute. Now you don't want your player being that substitute, nor do you want you player being the one that was substituted off. You really want your players being in their teams best 20 whether that be on the bench or starting. More often than not rookies are the players on the fringe, grabbing the last spot or two, this may lead to mid-priced, or job security being more valuable as a half game from a starter or a bench player is less than ideal.

 

[borrat]

Coad looks to be behind Bock and Hutchins for the key back possys , not likely to play rd.1. Toy will play.

surely coad would be easy best 21 if they want to win games and could even be a cheaper version of lake

 

[Wheedus]

surely coad would be easy best 21 if they want to win games and could even be a cheaper version of lake

Let's not put too much pressure on the lad!

It's a hard one with GC backs. You'd have to expect the ball will be down there a fair bit this year so these guys are going to get their touches. The question is who? McKenna specifically targeted experienced backs in their recruiting last year (Bock, Harbrow, Brown etc). Guys like Coad had great years when they were holding up the back line but with all the experienced inclusions he may not be the walk up start everyone (including myself) was thinking.

 

[Jars458]

With the new sub rule, only 21 players are able to take the field with 1 as a substitute. Now you don't want your player being that substitute, nor do you want you player being the one that was substituted off. You really want your players being in their teams best 20 whether that be on the bench or starting. More often than not rookies are the players on the fringe, grabbing the last spot or two, this may lead to mid-priced, or job security being more valuable as a half game from a starter or a bench player is less than ideal.

Yep thanks, was worried I had missed some rule that only your best 20 scorers count in Dream Team!

Picking rookies first up is going to be hard as the NAB cup doesn't have the same selection rules as the real season adn do getting a handle on who will likely be a sub will be quite hard.

 

[Wheedus]

Let's not put too much pressure on the lad!

It's a hard one with GC backs. You'd have to expect the ball will be down there a fair bit this year so these guys are going to get their touches. The question is who? McKenna specifically targeted experienced backs in their recruiting last year (Bock, Harbrow, Brown etc). Guys like Coad had great years when they were holding up the back line but with all the experienced inclusions he may not be the walk up start everyone (including myself) was thinking.

I may have spoken to soon. According to an article on AFL:

"Coach Guy McKenna said the eight uncontracted players lured from other club, including captain Gary Ablett and Campbell Brown, "basically pick themselves".

They would almost certainly be joined by four other players with senior experience - Danny Stanley, Sam Iles, Daniel Harris and Michael Coad - while NRL convert Karmichael Hunt and Geelong premiership player Nathan Ablett would be assessed by fitness staff.

McKenna said Stanley, Iles, Harris and Coad "aren't walk-up starts but with their experience and size of their bodies they're a better than average chance of getting in.

"Then it's really the kids that have shown enough in the pre-season, which is no different to other clubs."

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Good pick up ^

Stanley becomes an interesting proposition. GC will surely try and play as many mature aged players as possible and than the rest be rookies like gun rookies (Swallow, Day, Matera, Toy ect).

Surprising Lock wasnt mentioned

 

[Wheedus]

Good pick up ^

Stanley becomes an interesting proposition. GC will surely try and play as many mature aged players as possible and than the rest be rookies like gun rookies (Swallow, Day, Matera, Toy ect).

Surprising Lock wasnt mentioned

Bear in mind he was talking about the first NAB game but you would think the sentiment would apply to the regular season.

 

[CoastBhoy]

surely coad would be easy best 21 if they want to win games and could even be a cheaper version of lake

McKenna has come out and said a few times now that Jack Hutchins will be our fullback , and on the weekend lined up at fullback for the probables , Coad lined up for the possibles.

 

[CoastBhoy]

Hutchins?? dont know anything about him, can you add to this?

Have you been down to trainings?

What do you think the order of Bennell, Weller, Prestia, Lock, Illes and Caddy is in regards to being best 21??

I was thinking Day and Fraser would play KPF's Dixon maybe 3rd tall with Z.Smith rotating in ruck with Day and Fraser.

Caddy injured atm , i'd have Prestia from weller, bennell , illes , caddy , lock.

Dixon will be no.1 tall , cant see Day playing in the senior team straight away.

 

[elhadjihenry]

McKenna has come out and said a few times now that Jack Hutchins will be our fullback , and on the weekend lined up at fullback for the probables , Coad lined up for the possibles.

Do you have the full starting lineups for the two teams? Would be very handy to know

Edit: was on tooserious.net

Red (Probables): Jarrod Harbrow; Alik Magin; K. Hunt; N. Krakouer; Josh Fraser; Trent McKenzie; Josh Toy; Daniel Harris; Charlie Dixon; David Swallow; Danny Stanley; Matt Shaw; Campbell Brown; Brandon Matera; Michael Rischtelli; Sam Iles; Harley Bennell; Seb Tape.

White (Possibles): Marc Lock; Mav Weller; Luke Russell; Lewis Moss; Joey Daye; Tom Nicholls; Michael Coad; Roland Ah Chee; Taylor Hine; Jack Stanley; Rex Liddy; Jack Hutchins; Dion Prestia; Liam Patrick; Daniel Gorringe; Jacob Gilbee; Jake Crawford; Jeff White.

DNP- Gaz, Brennan, Bock, Caddy, Day, May, Taylor, Lynch, Smith, Flanagan, Wilkinson, Ablett

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Cant believe Bennell, Tape would get games ahead of Lock

D.Stanley is becoming alot more juicy, i think he could become something and hes a back which is even more enticing. May mean Toy and Stanley become the GC backs and maybe one of Coad or Hutchins if you really want to push it.

 

[bulldogsman]

McKenna has come out and said a few times now that Jack Hutchins will be our fullback , and on the weekend lined up at fullback for the probables , Coad lined up for the possibles.

Are you sure? Because by that list and the intra club thread, both lined up for the possibles. The first thing you said I've heard said though (if that makes any sense).

 

[Dr Awkward]

Do you have the full starting lineups for the two teams? Would be very handy to know

Edit: was on tooserious.net

Red (Probables): Jarrod Harbrow; Alik Magin; K. Hunt; N. Krakouer; Josh Fraser; Trent McKenzie; Josh Toy; Daniel Harris; Charlie Dixon; David Swallow; Danny Stanley; Matt Shaw; Campbell Brown; Brandon Matera; Michael Rischtelli; Sam Iles; Harley Bennell; Seb Tape.

White (Possibles): Marc Lock; Mav Weller; Luke Russell; Lewis Moss; Joey Daye; Tom Nicholls; Michael Coad; Roland Ah Chee; Taylor Hine; Jack Stanley; Rex Liddy; Jack Hutchins; Dion Prestia; Liam Patrick; Daniel Gorringe; Jacob Gilbee; Jake Crawford; Jeff White.

DNP- Gaz, Brennan, Bock, Caddy, Day, May, Taylor, Lynch, Smith, Flanagan, Wilkinson, Ablett

Very interesting to see that, I think I may have been underestimating Dixon. I would have thought Weller would be 'probables', isn't he in the leadership group? Might steer clear of both Coad and Hutchins, even if one of them is named round 1 they don't seem to have much job security and there are a lot of other good rookie back options.

 

[Jolldo87]

Very interesting to see that, I think I may have been underestimating Dixon. I would have thought Weller would be 'probables', isn't he in the leadership group? Might steer clear of both Coad and Hutchins, even if one of them is named round 1 they don't seem to have much job security and there are a lot of other good rookie back options.

Neither will be named round 1 because of the Gold Coast bye so really you'll just be guessing.

 

[joelselwood#14]

interesting to see Dion Prestia being in the Possibles. thought he would be certainty be in the 21.

 

[RustNeverSleeps]

Very interesting to see that, I think I may have been underestimating Dixon. I would have thought Weller would be 'probables', isn't he in the leadership group? Might steer clear of both Coad and Hutchins, even if one of them is named round 1 they don't seem to have much job security and there are a lot of other good rookie back options.

Coad and Toy have certainly piqued the interest of many. However Coad could be the archetypal substitute while McKenna has stated that Toy will only be good for 8-10 game in 2011.

I guess we'll all be a bit wiser over the next month...