Election Prediction Thread

[AndSmithMustScore]

Yep, the major poll in yesterday's Fairfax press showed Henderson gaining Corangamite too.

Definitely a big chance for the Coalition.

Could come down to preferences.

Corangamite has changed a bit demographically due to the increase in size of the coastal towns within its boundaries.

This has seen an increase in the size of the Greens vote in that region.

 

[AndSmithMustScore]

Corangamite will be a Greens gain as opposed to the Libs.

Their vote has increased in the region.

But that won't allow them to win the region. It could allow Labor though to get back in through preferences like in the last election.

Libs will get the biggest % of the primary vote in that seat, it'll come down to how much of a lead Sarah Henderson can put up in the primaries.

 

[dr nick]

Going off sportsbet, assuming parties will win the seat if their odds are less than $1.50 leaves

ALP 72
Coalition 66
Greens 1
Independent 3
Too close to call - 8 (Corangamite VIC, Forde QLD, Solomon NT, La Trobe VIC, Lindsay NSW, Hasluck WA, Dawson QLD, Herbert QLD)

Labor hold 7 of those seats, but it looks like they'll hang onto at least 3 - Liberal are favourite in 5.

If the Coalition hold 62 seats before polling closes on WA theyll win with independent support

Small change in the state of play according to the bookies..

Labor is now favourite to win La Trobe VIC, Corangamite VIC moves into the "safe" Labor zone and Longman QLD moves into the "too close to call".
ALP 1.50 to win, jumping from 1.35 yesterday.

And on a side note.. Gillard is underdog ($2.10) to be PM going into the 2013 election if she wins on Saturday - giving the ALP another chance to renege on promises with a change of PM

 

[SJ]

Small change in the state of play according to the bookies..

Labor is now favourite to win La Trobe VIC, Corangamite VIC moves into the "safe" Labor zone and Longman QLD moves into the "too close to call".
ALP 1.50 to win, jumping from 1.35 yesterday.

And on a side note.. Gillard is underdog ($2.10) to be PM going into the 2013 election if she wins on Saturday - giving the ALP another chance to renege on promises with a change of PM

You reckon? Think it will go down to the wire.

 

[Belnakor]

I'm calling a Lib victory with independant support

Liberal Gains
WA +2
QLD + 8
NSW + 7
VIC - 1

LABOR: 88 -> 73
COALITION: 59->73
GREENS: 1
INDEPENDENTS: 3

Something like that would be cool

 

[dr nick]

Victorian seats especially La Trobe and Corangamite have had a lot of ALP money overnight. NSW and QLD have had more money on the Libs, especially in Lindsay, Bennelong, Herbert, Longman and Robertson

If the Libs look like picking up Corangamite, then Abbott will be PM is my firm prediction. If Lindsay is retained by the ALP, then the coalition cannot win.

 

[Bugz]

Longman is surely gone after the Labor candidate had a go at the parent of a disabled kid....

 

[Giants FC]

For those who have nominated which seats will change hands in this thread and the other thread, I've collated them all onto an Excel spreadsheet - have this on your laptop while watching the count as each seat is called, and you'll see who predicted each seat and where the results so surprising that no-one tipped them are:
http://www.harboursport.com/election2010.xlsx

 

[camsmith]

Lib gain:

QLD: Flynn, Dickson, Herbert, Dawson, Forde, Bonner

NSW: Gilmore, Robertson, Macarthur, Macquarie, Bennelong, Page (nat),

Vic: Corangamite, Deakin

WA: Swan, Hasluck

ALP gain:

La Trobe

Lib 75 seats, Labor 72, Ind 3

(i think?)

Add Longman to that list of seats won by Lib. Gives them the majority.

I have tried to pick out a surprise seat that no one expects to change hands but I really can't find one.

 

[silver eagles]

Labor will win either 75 or 76 seats.
Greens will win 1 seat.

The Coalition will win either 70 or 71 seats.
Independents will win 3 seats.

Incorporating preferences, Labor wins, either 76:74 or 77:73.

 

[nylexbandit]

Have a bad feeling that the Coalition will get in government. Just heard Tony Abbott saying how their positive plans will succeed. If running with no real policy and just a stop this and stop that catch cry is positive I dread the day they get negative if they are in government.

 

[SJ]

For those who have nominated which seats will change hands in this thread and the other thread, I've collated them all onto an Excel spreadsheet - have this on your laptop while watching the count as each seat is called, and you'll see who predicted each seat and where the results so surprising that no-one tipped them are:
http://www.harboursport.com/election2010.xlsx

Nice work.

 

[silver eagles]

LABOR will win the following seats:
NSW: Banks, Barton, Blaxland, Charlton, Chifley, Cunningham, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, Hunter, Kingsford Smith, McMahon, Newcastle, Page, Parramatta, Reid, Richmond, Shortland, Sydney, Throsby, Watson and Werriwa.
VIC: Ballarat, Batman, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Chisholm, Corangamite, Corio, Deakin, Gellibrand, Gorton, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, La Trobe, Maribyrnong, Melbourne Ports, McEwen, Scullin and Wills.
QLD: Blair, Bonner, Brisbane, Capricornia, Forde, Griffith, Lilley, Longman, Morton, Oxley, Petrie and Rankin.
SA: Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Kingston, Makin, Port Adeliade and Wakefield.
WA: Brand, Fremantle and Perth.
ACT: Canberra and Fraser.
TAS: Bass, Braddon, Denison, Franklin and Lyons.
NT: Lingiari and Solomon.
Total = 76 seats

The COALITION will win the following seats:
NSW: Bennelong, Berowra, Bradfield, Calare, Cook, Cowper, Farrer, Gilmore, Hughes, Hume, Lindsay, Macarthur, Mackellar, Macquarie, Mitchell, North Sydney, Parkes, Paterson, Riverina, Robertson, Warringah and Wentworth.
VIC: Aston, Casey, Dunkley, Flinders, Gippsland, Goldstein, Higgins, Indi, Kooyong, Mallee, McMillan, Menzies, Murray and Wannon.
QLD: Bowman, Dawson, Dickson, Fadden, Fairfax, Fisher, Flynn, Groom, Herbert, Hinkler, Leichhardt, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Ryan, Wide Bay and Wright.
SA: Barker, Boothby, Grey, Mayo and Sturt.
WA: Canning, Cowan, Curtin, Durack, Forrest, Hasluck, Moore, O'Connor, Pearce, Stirling, Swan and Tangney.
Total = 70 seats

INDEPENDENTS will win the following seats:
NSW: Lyne and New England.
QLD: Kennedy.
Total = 3 seats

The GREENS will win the following seat:
VIC: Melbourne.
Total = 1 seat

 

[SJ]

My predictions:

ALP gain La Trobe, McEwan
LIB gain Bennelong, Gilmore, Hasluck, Lindsay, Macathur, Macquarie, Robertson, Swan
LNP gain Bonner, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Herbert, Leichhardt
GRN gain Melbourne

ALP 75, COA 71, IND 3, GRN 1

 

[TheGoatBaron]

It will be close but unfortunately Gillard will get the token vote due to her being a woman. If Abbott wasn't the leader, liberal would probably roll these clowns.

Do you have a problem with women that have power?

Labor will win in a close call.

 

[Metal]

Hard to predict with some commentators (Newspoll) saying the ALP face a blood bath in NSW and Queensland and could lose most seats. The more intelligent states ...SA and Vic... will just have to grin and bear it if the northern states win it for Abbott!

He really has the score card approach to politics for simpletons down to a fine art, even scoring how much of a hero he is for the number of hours he went without sleep, how many interviews he did etc. People seem to like this superficial approach and can be easily seduced into voting for him on the basis of it means you don't have to think any further.

There will be many disappointed women voters if Abbott gets up.

 

[Adz]

Joyce has called the election.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...federal-election/story-e6frf7jx-1225908159375

 

[SJ]

Joyce has called the election.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...federal-election/story-e6frf7jx-1225908159375

One last effort at taking underdog status.

 

[Belnakor]

polling was very accurate, couple of people got very close like myself

 

[fairdinkum]

I'm calling a Lib victory with independant support

Liberal Gains
WA +2
QLD + 8
NSW + 7
VIC - 1

LABOR: 88 -> 73
COALITION: 59->73
GREENS: 1
INDEPENDENTS: 3

Very good.

 

[TheBloods]

Nice work Belnakor!
And the Greens immediately declared for the ALP, showing that they are a proxy ALP party.
And I think we will see an ALP government.

 

[TheGoatBaron]

Nice work Belnakor!
And the Greens immediately declared for the ALP, showing that they are a proxy ALP party.
And I think we will see an ALP government.

Let's hope you're right brother.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

And the Greens immediately declared for the ALP, showing that they are a proxy ALP party.

Nice try slipping that bit of misrepresentation in. Honestly, it's just silly.

I mean, is anyone going to be labelling Family First and the Christian Democrats as proxy Liberal parties any time soon?

 

[TheBloods]

Do they have a seat in the House of Reps? No. The Greens do and are siding with the ALP.

 

[Belnakor]

Nice work Belnakor!
And the Greens immediately declared for the ALP, showing that they are a proxy ALP party.
And I think we will see an ALP government.

to be fair didn't the Greens guy say before the election he would side with Labor?

He was always going to side with Labor, just like the Nats independants will huff and puff like the guys in WA did but eventually they will side with the Libs, otherwise their own support base will lynch them.