Interestingly, it is currently one of those strange situations where none of the sides in the top 8 have lost to the bottom 10 sides. Games between top 8 and bottom 10 are currently 14-0.
Only a small chance of that being preserved this weekend IMO. Further games 'across the divide' in R4 are Syd vs Ess, Dogs vs Lions, Eagles vs Saints, and us vs North. Even if those games go to form, there is still a likely movement of sides in and out of the 8.
If the Suns get up over Carlton (or Carlton win by a big margin), they could displace one of Geelong or Richmond losing to Melbourne or Port respectively.
Collingwood beating GWS would displace the other if they both lose.
The status quo would likely be maintained if Geelong and Richmond both win, and the other games follow form. A big win to Richmond or the Suns could push Port outside on %age.
Pear beating the Tiggers (332/325; +7) means they will likely drop out of the 8:
Displaced by Carlton (274/275; -1) if they beat the Suns by about 8 points or more;
Displaced by the Suns if they beat Carlton
Displaced by Collingwood (231/227; +4) if they beat GWS by about 3 points or more
Displaced by Hawthorn (205/238; -33) if they beat Freo by 40 points or more.
Displaced by Freo (209/245; -36) if they beat Haw by 43 points or more.
So basically Richmond need all 3 of the 'safe' windows to be hit to stay in the 8:
Carl +7 to draw
CWD +2 to GWS win
Haw +42 to Freo +39






