Finals contenders analysis

[Smell The Glove]

Well, that was unexpected. If we can take the momentum from this match and sneak a win against the Crows at AAMI next week.

Looking at the other contenders (teams currently in the eight in italics):

5th: North Melbourne, 97.8%
9-7-1, 38 points, 1.5 wins ahead
Round 18: Brisbane @ Carrara
Round 19: Western Bulldogs @ TD
Round 20: US @ TD
Round 21: Geelong @ Kardinia Park
Round 22: Port Adelaide @ MCG

Tough run home and percentage is dicey. Has beaten Brisbane at Carrara in recent times and should account for Port, but none are certainties, and could potentially drop at least three or even four and miss the finals altogether. Should finish between 7th and 12th

6th: Collingwood, 113.47%
9-8, 36 points, 1 win ahead
Round 18: Hawthorn @ MCG
Round 19: St Kilda @ MCG
Round 20: Port @ Football Park
Round 21: Sydney @ TD
Round 22: Fremantle @ Subiaco

Comfortable percentage and at least two assured wins means we will almost certainly not catch the Pies. The Essendon loss will hurt, but only their top four chances. Could win their last four straight and the Sydney match could determine the final spot in the top four. Should finish between 4th and 8th.

7th: Adelaide, 106.18%
9-8, 36 points, 1 win ahead
Round 18: US @ Football Park
Round 19: Richmond @ Football Park
Round 20: Essendon @ TD
Round 21: St Kilda @ TD
Round 22: Western Bulldogs @ Football Park

With 12 wins for a finals spot looking distinctly possible, if not likely, the Crows will scratch at least three of wins against mediocre opposition to make it. All of the teams they play are in contention, but have a superior percentage to everyone outside the eight. Should finish between 5th and 9th.

8th: Brisbane, 105.27%
9-8, 36 points, 1 win ahead
Round 18: Roos @ Carrara
Round 19: Hawthorn @ Aurora
Round 20: Western Bulldogs @ Gabba
Round 21: US @ Gabba
Round 22: Sydney @ SCG

Look a bit shaky all of a sudden. Next week against the Roos is about as important as it gets for both sides. A loss and with games against 2nd and 3rd coming up the Lions could fall away badly. Out of form and have lost three our of four against sides outside the eight. Should finish between 7th and 10th.

9th: St Kilda, 100.63%
9-8, 36 points, 1 win ahead
Round 18: Port Adelaide @ TD
Round 19: Collingwood @ MCG
Round 20: Fremantle @ Subiaco
Round 21: Adelaide @ TD
Round 22: Essendon @TD

There would be nothing sweeter than replacing the Aints after Round 22, but we need a few upsets for that to happen. Should beat Port, and at least one of Essendon and Fremantle. All are winnable and their percentage is good enough, though they would like a big win or two. Should finish between 5th and 7th

10th: Richmond, 97.27%
8-8-1, 34 point, Half a win ahead
Round 18: Geelong @ TD
Round 19: Adelaide @ Football Park
Round 20: Hawthorn @ TD
Round 21: Fremantle @ MCG
Round 22: Melbourne @ MCG

Adelaide game will determine whether the Tigers play finals. Lose, and thats most likely it. Win and they need to rely on other results. Percentage is iffy too. Should finish between 8th and 12th.

11th: CARLTON, 95.97%, 8-9, 32 points
Round 18: Adelaide @ Football Park
Round 19: Port Adelaide @ TD
Round 20: Kangaroos @ TD
Round 21: Brisbane @ Gabba
Round 22: Hawthorn @ TD

Like the Tigers above us, we absolutely must beat Adelaide next week. Will probably have to win one of the last two "unwinnable" games. Need the Pies to beat the Saints, Adelaide to beat St Kilda and Richmond and at least a few. Very tough, but we are good enough to beat any of those sides. The Sydney loss looks like coming back to haunt us. Should finish between 8th and 12th.

I wont count Essendon. Shocking percentage and need to win all five. No chance.

 

[as0l0]

The Sydney loss looks like coming back to haunt us. Should finish between 8th and 12th.

the Sydney loss is probably why we won this week. to come within 2 points of Sydney, our boys must have thought...hold on a second, we can beat the best teams.

 

[Scruff83]

I'd give us a genuine chance if every game bar the Hawthorn one. 3 or 4 wins from those 5 is acheivable. Make it or not I'm just happy our season is still alive this late in the year!

 

[Andyt31]

this win keeps the door open a crack another loss would been gsm be good to win 3 in row if we beat adelaide and Beat Port for the 2nd time
this win will give em confidence into next Saturday

 

[TorresIsGod]

Four weeks in a row now we've had season defining games.

St. Kilda, Sydney, today and next week. It's good to be in contention at this stage of the season after the pain we've all been through. I'm so proud of the boys after todays win... Yes Jordan, even you.

 

[HBF]

I'd give us a genuine chance if every game bar the Hawthorn one. 3 or 4 wins from those 5 is acheivable. Make it or not I'm just happy our season is still alive this late in the year!

Reckon you're on the money there Scruff. I would expect the boys to go to Adelaide with a fair bit of confidence that they could beat the Crows.

Also, great analysis whipper. Next week shapes as a real pivotal weekend.

Collingwood v Hawthorn
Adelaide v Carlton
Kangaroos v Brisbane
St.Kilda v Port

 

[Mean Muggin]

Seriously hope you guys make it....but if it comes down to round 22 you are doomed.

 

[KarmaGeddon]

It may well come down to the Hawthorn game, and if so we will destroy them.

RD22 is the easiest game, they ain't that good.

 

[KarmaGeddon]

Bit generous to Collingwood there. They may well drop out of contention.

 

[setanta17]

simple: beat adelaide, port and kangaroos and brisbane

lose to hawthorn

sounds easy but it wont happen.

i think we will just miss out.
next year 100% we will make the finals though.

 

[krayfesh]

It's weird, but despite it being a development season, we may end up ruing our losses as opposed to celebrating our wins.

Don't get me wrong, I'm celebrating the wins, but this season will be one of lost opportunities despite our awesomeness.

Still, all a learning experience, right?

 

[one eyed bluey]

Seriously hope you guys make it....but if it comes down to round 22 you are doomed.

hopefully you can do another one of these...and suck on a fat one why your at it

 

[Carlton_Blues]

Adelaide and Port games are very winable, so to is the Lions match. We have shown that we can play the game out to the final siren and that pressure is sure to break any team that isnt playing with all players on board and 100%.

 

[Blue Dawn]

Nice summary there WS.

I still don't think we'll make it this year and i won't even contemplate it until we beat the Crows next week. Even then we've got to show hitherto unexposed levels of focus and maturity as a side and beat both Port AND North.

IF we can do that then we'll be 11 wins probably needing to win just one of our final two to sneak into the eight. Don't see it and, personally, don't really want it this year. Happy for them to win the 9 or 10 matches i was hoping for coming into the year and be fully fuocussed for a HUGE pre-season and a meaningful return to September action in 2009.

 

[BLUES82]

I suspect our biggest challenge will be brisbane (yes, even more so than hawthorn)....when did we last beat bris @ home? 2000?

 

[Jezza U Beauty]

Collongwood might just be the most overrated side in the league. I could actually see them losing every remaining game.

We've beaten Adelaide in Adelaide when we had no real right to before, and Port in Melbourne is a should-win. Can't see us beating the Hawks, but North is a 50-50, and the Lions aren't travelling that well.

If we can continue to get a couple of blokes who aren't #25 to kick three and four goals a game we are capable of beating most sides.

 

[BlueYoss]

Lets not forget that Bower, Hadley, Hoops and Armfield should all become available this week

 

[TorresIsGod]

Of those four, the only player I'd even think of picking is Armfield. The other three will be absolutely nowhere near match fitness and would be a liability if we were to take them to Adelaide.

And even so, Armfield wouldn't be a balanced change, if anyone was to be ommited (and I dearly hope he isn't) it'd be Hartlett.

Give Army, Hoops, Hadley & Bower a run with the Ants, see how they perform, see what their match fitness is like, if one of them absolutely dominates and demands selection, we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. Leave the 22 as it is for this week.

 

[Jezza U Beauty]

Of those four, the only player I'd even think of picking is Armfield. The other three will be absolutely nowhere near match fitness and would be a liability if we were to take them to Adelaide.

And even so, Armfield wouldn't be a balanced change, if anyone was to be ommited (and I dearly hope he isn't) it'd be Hartlett.

Give Army, Hoops, Hadley & Bower a run with the Ants, see how they perform, see what their match fitness is like, if one of them absolutely dominates and demands selection, we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. Leave the 22 as it is for this week.

I'm inclined to agree with you, although it's also a matter of looking at Adelaide's likely line-up and taking specific match-ups into account. If anything, I'd like to think the MC will consider bringing in another additional forward option against the crows, as we don't have Burton to worry about this time around, and Fev is likely to struggle against Bock IMO.

I'd actually love to see 1AW up forward against the crows, as he's an accurate kick for goal as well as being athletic enough to play a shut-down type role on one of their running backs if need be. Plus he's more likely to take mark of the year in the forward half than down back.

 

[thegreenmachine]

I think we can still make it. Had we lost yesterday I think you could have said our season was over. This season is so close and has been so unpredictable, I think we can still make it. Sorry Alpha1.

 

[Hopeful in Tasmania]

I suspect our biggest challenge will be brisbane (yes, even more so than hawthorn)....when did we last beat bris @ home? 2000?

A lot of motivation and something to prove for our boys after what happened at TD earlier this year.

 

[Murph is baby Judd]

id say wed fall short
lets not forget we are a really young team, and young players tend to drop off towards the end of the season
and young teams are ALWAYS inconsistent, not only from game to game, but qtr to qtr

we'd almost have to go 4-1 to squeeze in given our percentage, and personally i just cant see it happening

that said, yesterday our older head really lifted and guided us home, if they hit some consistent form anything is possible