First poll is out

[whythelongface]

personally I'm skeptical about these results due to the fact that the polls were way off in 2004. They indicated the Coalition would win a close one and we all know how that turned out. I'd be more inclined to believe the bookies. I'm sure Howard and Costello will be dripping with arrogance non the less.

Sporting Bet currently has the ALP at $1.60 and the Coalition at $2.35.
Centrebet ALP $1.62 Coalition $2.30.

Support for the coalition has been firming with a number of $10K bets taken this week upon the release of their tax package. At one stage (a couple of weeks ago) the coalition was at $3.04 and the ALP $1.30.

The betting agencies are a pretty safe bet when it comes to determining the result. It will be interesting come election week to see what the odds are then. IMHO the odds will be pretty close together. I would say maybe $1.85 to $1.95 for each party.

 

[Pessimistic]

Howard is performng well.

"Not anti-union just anti union control" good grab

Costelo and Hockey less convincing - just hand over a bucket of money to the nurses eh joe ?

 

[evo]

Sporting Bet currently has the ALP at $1.60 and the Coalition at $2.35.
.

Geeze you're right,it was 1.55 when I looked at it only a few hours ago.

And IAs had them at 1.50,now 1.60

 

[Daytripper]

Sporting Bet currently has the ALP at $1.60 and the Coalition at $2.35.
Centrebet ALP $1.62 Coalition $2.30.

Support for the coalition has been firming with a number of $10K bets taken this week upon the release of their tax package. At one stage (a couple of weeks ago) the coalition was at $3.04 and the ALP $1.30.

The betting agencies are a pretty safe bet when it comes to determining the result. It will be interesting come election week to see what the odds are then. IMHO the odds will be pretty close together. I would say maybe $1.85 to $1.95 for each party.

What is Betfair showing ?
I can't access that site from where I am at the moment.

Betfair is the true king of public opinion as far as punters money is concerned as it is not swayed by bookmakers opinions.

 

[Z_K]

"Not anti-union just anti union control" good grab

It is. Very good.

Bastard!!!

 

[evo]

Betfair is matching between 1.62 and 1.65 currently

heres trhe graph of trading if anyones interested,it seems it did some decent matches about 5 days ago.

http://au.site.sports.betfair.com/b...S_NZL&locale=en_AU&brand=betfair&currency=AUD

 

[stephen_bayne]

A thought occurs to me. This campaign is much like the story of the Tortoise and the Hare. The government are off to a flying start and seeing as they have a lot of ground to make up fair enough but will they have anything left by November 24th? Meanwhile Labor seems to realise this is a marathon not a sprint and with thier position they know there's no need to rush.

 

[Qsaint]

It depends what the ALP has in their barrel.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/feder...d-tax-plan-hint/2007/10/19/1192300994580.html

We will find out today or tomorrow

 

[Pessimistic]

The other point is if Rudd truly is in landslide territory he will be mindful he doesn't need to offer too much in the way of sweeteners. If there really is an economic correction coming up and he is in power he will need to keep options open.

If as time goes on it is closer Rudd can loosen the top of the barrell. It could even be he is instinctively more frugal than the libs !

It could be its howard thats flailing around irrsponsibly.

Play it correctly and rudd could dent the 'good economic managers' perception as well

 

[Hawk Dork]

Howard is performng well.

"Not anti-union just anti union control" good grab

Costelo and Hockey less convincing - just hand over a bucket of money to the nurses eh joe ?

Read somwhere that a third of all unionists vote for the Tories

 

[Dry Rot]

A thought occurs to me. This campaign is much like the story of the Tortoise and the Hare. The government are off to a flying start and seeing as they have a lot of ground to make up fair enough but will they have anything left by November 24th? Meanwhile Labor seems to realise this is a marathon not a sprint and with thier position they know there's no need to rush.

Or they're just inexperienced and crap at campaigning. And they'll lose.

 

[campbell]

never understood why you need to come out with the big guns in week 1.

Slow and steady wins the race.Finish hard, not early.

 

[stephen_bayne]

Or they're just inexperienced and crap at campaigning. And they'll lose.

I'll admit that thought has crossed my mind.

 

[Giants FC]

I think most people expected the gap to narrow once the election was called. So these polls aren't really a surprise.
With the tax cut promises, John Howard's won the first week of the campaign. There's still a lot of ground to make up - and those polls show Labor still well in front. But there's time for the Liberals to make up that ground.

The election is like a match where Labor led by 5 goals at three-quarter time but the Coalition are coming home with the wind which has picked up; and kicking the first goal of the quarter at the 5 minute mark. Still well behind, but they're in the contest.

 

[leapinglanny]

People are now seeing right through KRUDD DILLARD AND THE JOURNO HACKS.

Labor heading for a worst result the the latham days