Prediction Fremantle Dockers: Contendors

[Lach72]

Lach72

You rang?

 

[Wally Walpamur]

Love the optimism but I think we need to temper our expectations a bit. I don't think a team can go from 16th to premiers. While we hope to see some improvements, other teams are going to improve as well. On paper, we've recruited really well and we'll hopefully be getting a lot of our senior/core players back from injury but there are still a lot of unknowns as to the condition they'll come back and our first/second year players could all plateau like Sutcliffe/Suban.

 

[Ragtooth]

TL;DR…..haha joking but careful, you’ll jinx us!!

In regards to the skills, I’d say a combination of lower fitness base combined with a lack of game plan understanding by the players primarily led to horrible skills. The best teams “know” where their team mates will be without looking in that direction. We constantly looked like a deer in the headlights, which ultimately put us under pressure leading to a drop in skills. Look a Hilly (S) for example. Typically he is a GUN with accuracy, however this year he was one of our worst players…including Dawson…

Love the optimism but I think we need to temper our expectations a bit. I don't think a team can go from 16th to premiers. While we hope to see some improvements, other teams are going to improve as well. On paper, we've recruited really well and we'll hopefully be getting a lot of our senior/core players back from injury but there are still a lot of unknowns as to the condition they'll come back and our first/second year players could all plateau like Sutcliffe/Suban.

Agree. Need to temper the optimism folks. The game has changed dramatically in 2016 and we couldn't go with it for a whole pile of reasons. I actually doubt we'll challenge for the top 4 even. Moreso I think we'll struggle to make the eight. So many unknowns, new players, many players who haven't played in a year and a very very even competition (Ess, Stkilda, Melbourne, Colliwoobles, Port and Us all have the potential to make the eight with all of the other top 8 teams....) will see us have a tough fight on our hands.

Much like Bulldogs, StKilda and Melbourne over the last few years, i really look forward to our improvement in our Youth the most. I don't think Suttcliffe, Sheridan and Corzier have the hall marks to be eliete (love to be proven wrong), but Weller and Blakely look like they have the goods, Balic could be anything, will Tucker and Langdon take another giant leap? Does McCarthy continue to improve? How will our pick 7 go?

The future is so much brighter than it was in May haha

 

[jedi mind tricks]

Lach72

That old bloke won't save us

 

[M_rash]

Love the optimism but I think we need to temper our expectations a bit. I don't think a team can go from 16th to premiers. While we hope to see some improvements, other teams are going to improve as well. On paper, we've recruited really well and we'll hopefully be getting a lot of our senior/core players back from injury but there are still a lot of unknowns as to the condition they'll come back and our first/second year players could all plateau like Sutcliffe/Suban.

And I didn't think a team could go from minor premiers and prelim to 16th

 

[holy diver]

I love the optimism.

#whynotus

 

[mightymouse75]

We need the forwards to live up to there potential. Sandi to hang in there and really don't think the back line is up to it. 8th or 9th is my call

 

[Sir Deadly]

I've already put the last of my Sportsbet fund on us making the 8, I'm confident we'll be back.

 

[Freomaniac]

So I've ever only created a thread with one prediction before; in 2012 I accurately predicted that 2016 would be Pav's last year (https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2016-pavs-last-year.973365/). I don't know exactly what that really entitles me to - except to maybe make another prediction and jam it down everyone's throats.

After the news spread (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...t/news-story/cf0921251c49c21d758ce5b15ad45a7f) that someone had thrown down a cool $20,000 for the Dockers to finally lift that thing that isn't the McClelland Trophy (and silence every joke regarding an incoming-bound ship into the Fremantle Port and what that didn't signify for the Dockers), it actually got me thinking into what our chances might realistically be. Ultimately, I've met a few blokes with deep-pockets - and trust me - most of them still get mighty pissed after they've lost a big bet; chump change or not. So I'm guessing that in his (or her) mind the bet was more serious than a virgin on his first Tinder date.

I'm not going to get hugely into the mechanics here; just observe a few factors that are vital for Premiership success in 2017. Ultimately, we are talking about a lot of things going our way to catapult ourselves into success following our pathetic 2016 campaign. I also acknowledge my whining about Barlow and Silvagni being delisted, but between drinks I've been able to consider things with greater measure. First of all;

1. Coaching

Between last season and now we've lost a few elite coaches, gained a few fresh ones, and had one mic-drop and exit stage-left.

The Game Plan also changed dramatically; moving from our traditionally high-pressure choke-out affect combined with our Helms Deep-like defense to a more free-flowing, open-warfare attacking style. It didn't work. I'm not going to publish verses on what went wrong - suffice to say nobody had any idea how to adapt to the new un-Fremantle like Fremantle game-plan.

What Needs to Happen?

Put simply, Ross and his buddy bro's need to have a quick scan through history and retain every single element of the old Game Plan that used to work effectively. They can do that now cos the Doggies did it and according to the laws of human theology when someone else shows something can be done it somehow becomes possible for everyone.

While retaining key approaches from the past is essential, adopting new strategies is similarly critical. Even though we had critical failures this year, there were (few) times when things worked and our attack actually looked better than it ever has. This was normally gobbled up fairly quick however by an opposition that picked holes in our game plan with ease.

Overall, our new Game Plan must feature a perfect balance between what works whilst simultaneously preparing for the future of Football. Finally, the Game Plan must selflessly adhere to the strengths of Individual Players - this doesn't mean players selfishly taking on the game, it means that if a player is suited perfectly to a particular type of role; let him play that role. Don't play him out of position or minimise their natural flair.

Can It Be Done?

If anyone was to turn an AFL Team around in the space of one season - it would be Ross. Yes it can be done.

2. Injuries

Since 2010 our home and away campaign has been hampered by injury - 2011 and 2016 were our worst years but we still had a tough run from 2012 through to 2015 (our most successful years).

What Needs to Happen?

Not get injured right? Or at least be like other teams and only average 2-3 key outs at a time and 2-3 lower to mid-level players that doesn't completely and utterly throw the balance of our entire team. Last year we were s**t, but the population reduction of our entire club through injury meant that we'd have been better off sending our players on a Cesna 172 opposition game instead of regular commercial air-crafts. We need to have a healthy team to make selections from - there's really no other alternative.

Can it Be Done?

No fudging clue - I don't know if it's a combination of our training ground, playing ground and travel or other things. Hopefully the players can be right to go from the preseason without the acceptable number of collateral layoffs. Ultimately, an injury-free 2017 is a vital path to success.

3. Form of Senior Players

Several of our senior and top-tier (best) players were out of form last year.

What Needs to be Done?

Mundy can play 22 games next year but if he isn't at his elite best it's all for nothing. The same can be said for guys on the fence like Stephen Hill, Hayden Ballantyne and a few others. D. Pearce needs to stop being D. Pearce and be someone else - like a player with actual form.

Can It Be Done?

Of course it can - all our senior players once were in excellent form (see our 2013 season). Zac Clarke can have a prolific season back in the ruck, Ballantyne can become a goal-scoring jet again, and David Mundy can get back to the All-Australian form he was in last year. Stephen Hill can still reach his peak - a lot of these guys aren't too old and broken to get back to basics and do what they do best. With the right game plan, and the right health - all of those things can be achieved.

4. Development of Youth and Up and Comers.

One upside from last year is that a lot of young guys got a crack at the big time and really impressed at senior level. Connor Blakely and Alex Pearce are all but starting 22, and we saw some brilliant flashes from Lachie Weller, Ed Langdon, Sam Collins and some reasonable work from guys like Darcy Tucker and Ethan Hughes. Also, older 'Youth' and up like comers like Hayden Crozier really made a solid impression (in the much-need HB position) and junk-time Draft pick Shane Yarran proved he could become one of our most influential and versatile key-forwards.

What Needs to Be Done?

For these guys to reach the next level of their potential. With a solid pre-season, some of these players could really come into their own and become next-level players. Alex Pearce can become our next spiritual-leader in Defense, Connor Blakely can become our next great inside-guts ball-winner, Hayden Crozier can continue his solid work at half-back and give us the kicking precision we so sorely need back there. Guys like Weller and Langdon may be able to stamp their authority as best-22 players and give us the skilled-burst that's vital to our midfield.

Can it be Done?

Out of anything, I'm most confident about this. If injury-free, a lot of these guys are going to become bonafide players next year - and I believe we are all going to be very, very, excited about what's to come.

5. Immediate Impact of Trades

We have four new talents - Cam McCarthy, Brad Hill, Joel Hamling and Shane Kersten that we have acquired from our trading period. Guys like McCarthy have a huge amount of potential, but have a lot of hurdles to overcome. We've seen B. Hill's talents in Hawthorn, but can he take things to the next level in WA? Hamling and Kersten look like they could be the goods, but they've had such little time in the AFL to prove their durability. I'm going to throw in Bennell as well as he's never played in the Home and Away season for us.

What Needs to Happen?

These five need to make the transition into our club seamlessly and perfectly. We need Cam McCarthy not necessarily to be Pavlich, but to be the key-forward we know he can be. He needs to make the forward 50 his bitch, his hunting ground. B. Hill needs to give us speed and agility in the midfield, H. Bennell needs to be injury-free and carry the midfield and forward impact he did for the Gold Coast in 2014 and 2015 (who can forget the 6 he punted against Geelong in 2014?) and Hamling and Kersten quite simply need to fulfill their unknowable potential as soon as humanly possible.

Can it be Done?

Yes - but the speed in which they need to adapt to their new clubs, coach and environment is paramount here. They need to seamlessly fit in with the team, and adopt whatever superior Game Plan Lyon and co will come up with this year. On top of all that they will need to be as good as every Dockers fan hopes they can be. In reality I think we'll get halfway there - McCarthy and B. Hill will be diamonds straightaway, Kersten and Hamling might take a bit longer but by the years end will be in a much better space.

6. Skills

Our skills were deplorable last year, and they weren't even that excellent in our peak period. Kicking efficiency, hand-balling, goal-kicking, contested marking have all been poor areas for us that we need to drastically improved upon.

What Needs to be Done?

There are limitations in coaching skills, but I'd still say there's probably a fair way to go through there as well. Ultimately we have a need to draft or trade for skilled-players but that will take a couple more years to invest in. McCarthy and Kersten are for kicking goals, Hamling is a defender so the skills at present need to come from guys like B. Hill, H. Bennell and a myriad of senior players already apart of the team. Unfortunately this means that guys like D. Pearce, Sutcliffe and Ibbotson should really not be getting games (or even Sheridan in defence) ahead of other players that might be able to do their jobs with more precision. We also need to rely upon guys like Weller, Langdon and Blakely to be our new midfield force that will hopefully find our players up front better than others.

Can it be Done?

Yes - although I'm not sure if the turn-around will be that quick. I think whoever we get in the draft this year will tend towards the sleeker side, but we may have to wait some time to reap the fruits of our harvest. If steps 3, 4 and 5 outlined above occur than the improvement of skills should occurs somewhat naturally.


Conclusion: If we were able to miraculously perfect the 6 steps listed above next year, then we are within a shot at the Flag. All 6 of them are possible however it's more than a little unlikely that everyone will and everything will gell together perfectly all at once.

I do think we will have teething problems for the first few months of football next year, but I predict we will go all 2012 on everyone; and after being dubbed 'unwatchable' we'll turn everything around in the back-half of next year and maybe sneak our way into the finals. From there I believe we will win the Grand Final in a similar fashion to the Bulldogs - probably out of the Top 4 and completely left-field. I think we'll do this from 5th or 6th spot.

The way our team will work will involve a mixture of our best defending and soon-to-be electric forward attack. Johnson, Dawson, A. Pearce and Hamling will blunt the attack - our midfield will include expert ball-winners like Fyfe, Mundy, Blakely and Neale palming it off to explosive running midfielders like B. Hill, S. Hill, Langdon and Sheridan. The forward 50 will look completely different with McCarthy, Kersten, Yarran, Bennell, Waters and Ballantyne dominating; the perfect combination of talls, mediums and smalls. Remember Fyfe planning on spending more time forward? That's going to happen as well, and soon the wisdom in utilising as a resting ruckman will see us pound on more goals than Beckham after a truckload of Red Bulls.

Thank you for reading my Fantasy.

Your fantasy might become a reality

 

[FreoMonocle]

You just need to get to the finals to have a chance, even if it's at 8th place fending off positions 9 to 12 with a jockey's whip.

This season isn't so dominated by mighty monsters, it's most likely, who has best current form in September that wasn't hit hard by serious injury in the latter part of the season that will be the team to get the consecutive 3-4 wins that gives you the trophy, rather than the dominant juggernauts.

The issues for us will we be, have we tuned our forward line that has run a bit rough so far this season (maybe a tweak in the midfield to minimise opposition clearances straight to goal) and if we are in a good situation re: injuries. Those things can come together through the course of this season and if so, I think we have a chance at it.

 

[PapaJ]

You just need to get to the finals to have a chance, even if it's at 8th place fending off positions 9 to 12 with a jockey's whip.

This season isn't so dominated by mighty monsters, it's most likely, who has best current form in September that wasn't hit hard by serious injury in the latter part of the season that will be the team to get the consecutive 3-4 wins that gives you the trophy, rather than the dominant juggernauts.

The issues for us will we be, have we tuned our forward line that has run a bit rough so far this season (maybe a tweak in the midfield to minimise opposition clearances straight to goal) and if we are in a good situation re: injuries. Those things can come together through the course of this season and if so, I think we have a chance at it.

This is true, but I'll still back GWS to go deep and rightly be favourites, maybe even the Bulldogs because, as you say, it's about form and fitness come late in the year and though both are struggling now, they will get a lot of fire-power back late when it really counts. On top of that, GWS especially with all their talent on the list (thanks AFL) can maintain some sort of standard despite these injuries which will allow them to continue to squeeze enough wins to stay near the top of the table. Any other club was hit by those sorts of injuries would be spoon bound I reckon, it's only GWS that are the exception and it will set them up for a good shot come Sept.

Smoky BTW is Sydney. They're a way back of course, but they've got the pedigree there and plenty of talent and, as you say, could be in a good place come Sept. If they can go the rest of the year with only a few more losses, they could easily sneak the 8 (they have a good percentage given their W-L record) and then anything is possible.

 

[Freomaniac]

This is true, but I'll still back GWS to go deep and rightly be favourites, maybe even the Bulldogs because, as you say, it's about form and fitness come late in the year and though both are struggling now, they will get a lot of fire-power back late when it really counts. On top of that, GWS especially with all their talent on the list (thanks AFL) can maintain some sort of standard despite these injuries which will allow them to continue to squeeze enough wins to stay near the top of the table. Any other club was hit by those sorts of injuries would be spoon bound I reckon, it's only GWS that are the exception and it will set them up for a good shot come Sept.

Smoky BTW is Sydney. They're a way back of course, but they've got the pedigree there and plenty of talent and, as you say, could be in a good place come Sept. If they can go the rest of the year with only a few more losses, they could easily sneak the 8 (they have a good percentage given their W-L record) and then anything is possible.

Same reason why I think Freo can do some damage as well, even if we Finish between 5th-8th

 

[PapaJ]

Same reason why I think Freo can do some damage as well, even if we Finish between 5th-8th

Yeah sure. Having a healthy list is essential though. We'll have the added issue of having quite a few young players, plus players like Fye and McCarthy at the end of their first full season in a while too. I think we're going to fatigue late in the season myself, but we'll see.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

We could Bradbury it this season

 

[FreoMonocle]

Will have to bookmark this thread and watch it unfold

 

[serial_thrilla]

I sure hope this is well down the front page by the time we get pumped by ten goals tonight...

 

[StingBitten]

I sure hope this is well down the front page by the time we get pumped by ten goals tonight...

I was only go to requote my thread if we won tonight.

This is all on you now Freomaniac

 

[Clems Knee]

I sure hope this is well down the front page by the time we get pumped by ten goals tonight...

I don't like the title of the thread, but the OP is outstanding.
Of the 6 points raised, Freo have done pretty well so far.
1. Coaching - Effort is again a non-negotiable. Ross Lyon is in complete control with good game day changes, and David Hale is now asserting himself (based on positive mentions by players compared to last year). The rotating of Midfielders into the forward line has covered the loss of our greatest player. A
2. Injuries - Ballantyne, Sandilands now, Hill for a few weeks, A Pearce and Bennell out of the top 22 means that we have been affected by injuries, but this year is much better than last year so far. Zac Clarke, Apeness and Uebergang also injured. B
3. Form of Senior players - Mundy, Johnson and Sandilands are back to their best. D. Pearce has played better in the last two games than he has for two years. Dawson and Suban haven't played well and haven't been missed. Spurr and Ibbotson have kept their position in the team, but haven't been in good form. B
4. Development of Youth and Up and Comers - Connor Blakely, Lachie Weller, Ethan Hughes have all improved this year. Darcy Tucker, Ed Langdon and Hayden Crozier have all showed some progress too. Balic was looking good before his leave of absence. Sam Collins hasn't made into the ones yet and of course Yarran is gone. B
5. Immediate Impact of Trades - Brad Hill, Joel Hamling, Shane Kersten and Cameron McCarthy have all had strong games already. Hill has been the best of the four, but all of the trades have been a success so far. A
6. Skills - Still a work in progress, but Hill's efforts at providing an open option has made Fremantle look much better. When the players drop their focus and hit up short kicks, their skills look better than when they take the low percentage option of kicking long and hoping. Having Walters going through this he middle has improved the skills as well. B/C

I would have added (easy to say with hindsight)
7. Stars - How does Fyfe go with his return from a broken leg? Does Neale back up or improve on his outstanding 2016? I think Fyfe is still building, but has been very good anyway, while after a slow start back from surgery, Neale is playing at another level again. B

 

[Purple Jesus]

Mods do you reckon you could hide this thread?

 

[Unique Name]

Or change the name at least

 

[StingBitten]

Lololol

Nothing to see here.

 

[Lachy96]

Fuccccccckkkkkkk its hard being a freo supporter...

 

[Unique Name]

Lololol

Nothing to see here.

Change the title.

 

[StingBitten]

Change the title.

To what.

 

[Midnite65]

To what.

2020 Premiers