Rumour GFC 2021 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists... Part II

[Sire of Claude]

The trouble with reading all the pre-draft stuff is that you keep adding players to your list: it's like reading wine reviews - they sound great but do they taste great? So how to choose between players?

My take is that we have lacked pace and finishing skill for some years now; accordingly in addition to ball-getting ability we need those 2 attributes. It has long amazed me that Wells drafts so few left-footers cf. say the Dogs, Giants or Hawks.

I fear Zac Taylor will go before 22 but what about Josh Taylor? I'm in 2 minds about Knevitt because of he query on his kicking. I do like Tom bBown for half back but he's now likely to go earlier too. Who else is out there in our range with the right attributes?

(Now we're told there are times Parfitt is allowed to get the ball and times not!! If he could get more possessions he most certainly would.)

 

[Heckler]

You are way off with Holmes if you watched the VFL games he has footy smarts, Was his first year in the AFL give the kid a break it was nerves getting to him you just wait and watch this kid in 3 or 4 years

I've heard good things about Holmes before
I've yet to see it from him at AFL level
It wasn't nerves that makes him run to the wrong spots
It wasn't nerves that makes him chase after a player rather than anticipate ahead
It wasn't nerves that made him miss from the goal line
It wasn't nerves that makes him choose bad options
Nerves, Excitable, Klutz, or Dumb... hoping it is not the unfixable one.

 

[MacStradbroke]

He registered 20 disposals or more in 11/22 games (excluding the Semi where he got injured). Don't forget his average TOG% is 69%, aka less than 3/4 game time.

All of the people bagging Parfitt were no doubt the same people calling Hawkins and Guthrie liabilities. Parfitt is 23 years of age and his numbers stack up to the #1 draft pick from his draft:

Draft Pick	Player	Current Team	Career games	2021 Avg. Disposals	2021 Avg. Tackles
26	Brandan Parfitt	Geelong	95	18.8	5.6
1	Andrew McGrath	Essendon	93	22.6	4.4

He's going into his 6th season.

• Bartel only averaged 23 disposals in his fifth season, just four more disposals than Parf did this year, and in a much less defensively-demanding role.
• James Kelly didn't average 20 disposals until his 7th season.
• Paul Chapman didn't average 20 disposals until his 7th season.
• Joel Corey didn't average 20 disposals until his 6th season.
• Gary jnr didn't average 20 disposals until his 6th season.

Have some patience.

Agree with you, but not sure why people keep using Hawkins as a reference for slow starters. He took 130 marks and kicked 34 goals in his third season. We’d be doing backflips if we had a third year tall doing that now.

 

[MacStradbroke]

I've heard good things about Holmes before
I've yet to see it from him at AFL level
It wasn't nerves that makes him run to the wrong spots
It wasn't nerves that makes him chase after a player rather than anticipate ahead
It wasn't nerves that made him miss from the goal line
It wasn't nerves that makes him choose bad options
Nerves, Excitable, Klutz, or Dumb... hoping it is not the unfixable one.

Couldn’t disagree with a post more. Got wheels, got size and is excellent in close, can’t teach that. Will be a ripper. I think a few are dismissing him for all the reasons you mentioned due to a few rushed shots at goal. If he was available in this years draft he goes in single figures for me.
Hopefully I’m right and you are not

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

Couldn’t disagree with a post more. Got wheels, got size and is excellent in close, can’t teach that. Will be a ripper. I think a few are dismissing him for all the reasons you mentioned due to a few rushed shots at goal. If he was available in this years draft he goes in single figures for me.
Hopefully I’m right and you are not

Huge potential that's for sure - particularly if it's true that he only played 15 games of footy since under 15's.
With his legs he's gong to be a ripper once he's footy fit

 

[year of the cat]

The trouble with reading all the pre-draft stuff is that you keep adding players to your list: it's like reading wine reviews - they sound great but do they taste great? So how to choose between players?

My take is that we have lacked pace and finishing skill for some years now; accordingly in addition to ball-getting ability we need those 2 attributes. It has long amazed me that Wells drafts so few left-footers cf. say the Dogs, Giants or Hawks.

I fear Zac Taylor will go before 22 but what about Josh Taylor? I'm in 2 minds about Knevitt because of he query on his kicking. I do like Tom bBown for half back but he's now likely to go earlier too. Who else is out there in our range with the right attributes?

(Now we're told there are times Parfitt is allowed to get the ball and times not!! If he could get more possessions he most certainly would.)

If we want both Knevitt and Taylor then I reckon we are likely to have to trade up. Can't see him lasting to our current 2nd pick. Could be wrong. Anyone got Taylor's testing results?

 

[cat_shack]

I've heard good things about Holmes before
I've yet to see it from him at AFL level
It wasn't nerves that makes him run to the wrong spots
It wasn't nerves that makes him chase after a player rather than anticipate ahead
It wasn't nerves that made him miss from the goal line
It wasn't nerves that makes him choose bad options
Nerves, Excitable, Klutz, or Dumb... hoping it is not the unfixable one.

Holmes will be a gun, bookmark it.

 

[MacStradbroke]

Huge potential that's for sure - particularly if it's true that he only played 15 games of footy since under 15's.
With his legs he's gong to be a ripper once he's footy fit

We all have own opinions, this is a forum after all. But to say he is running to wrong spots or not anticipating play ahead or chosing wrong options when nearly all of us hardly saw a game this year is a tad rough. We all appreciate how different the game looks when we are there live to see a wide angle as opposed to that on tele. I reckon what he achieved this year with his football history was phenomenal, to force his way in and then demand a position in the fourth best team in the comp. Really looking forward to his progress.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

I've heard good things about Holmes before
I've yet to see it from him at AFL level
It wasn't nerves that makes him run to the wrong spots
It wasn't nerves that makes him chase after a player rather than anticipate ahead
It wasn't nerves that made him miss from the goal line
It wasn't nerves that makes him choose bad options
Nerves, Excitable, Klutz, or Dumb... hoping it is not the unfixable one.

LOL. You could replace Holmes' name with the names of about half of our 2007-11 era players.
And half of those, are the ones we hold up and idolise a decade later.
Makes me laugh when people take a blokes first dozen games and try to put a line through him.
Scarlo, Enright, Corey, Ling, SJ and my all time favourite Chappy.
Just a few, i shook my head on more than a few occasions when they played their first 20 odd games.
Time will tell as it does on all players that walk thru the door.
Cheers

 

[Shadow89]

I've heard good things about Holmes before
I've yet to see it from him at AFL level
It wasn't nerves that makes him run to the wrong spots
It wasn't nerves that makes him chase after a player rather than anticipate ahead
It wasn't nerves that made him miss from the goal line
It wasn't nerves that makes him choose bad options
Nerves, Excitable, Klutz, or Dumb... hoping it is not the unfixable one.

This is a borderline post, lol. Holmes played in 2 finals in his first year, and had 3 BOG's in his first 3 games in the VFL...before things started getting interrupted again.

Again...in his first year, as a pretty scrawny kid. He has so much upside, it's ridiculous. Cannot believe how brutally judgemental/uninformed this post is.

 

[Shadow89]

If we want both Knevitt and Taylor then I reckon we are likely to have to trade up. Can't see him lasting to our current 2nd pick. Could be wrong. Anyone got Taylor's testing results?

No chance he gets past the Tiges - as pretty much every phantom has him in that 25-30 draft range. They have 3 picks in that exact spot, and he won't make it past. If we want both (we'd be lucky to get Knevitt at what will be our Pick 24/25), then we'll definitely have to trade up to at least the Dogs' Pick 23, if not Brisbane's 18 or Hawthorn's 21. Who knows though, as the draft is so even once you get outside the first 6 or so picks

 

[Warhorse]

LOL. You could replace Holmes' name with the names of about half of our 2007-11 era players.
And half of those, are the ones we hold up and idolise a decade later.
Makes me laugh when people take a blokes first dozen games and try to put a line through him.
Scarlo, Enright, Corey, Ling, SJ and my all time favourite Chappy.
Just a few, i shook my head on more than a few occasions when they played their first 20 odd games.
Time will tell as it does on all players that walk thru the door.
Cheers

That's 2007-2011. From 2011-now generally the opposite with players such as Holmes, Clark and Cockatoo are talked up but don't develop as expected.

 

[Warhorse]

This is a borderline braindead post, lol. Holmes played in 2 finals in his first year, and had 3 BOG's in his first 3 games in the VFL...before things started getting interrupted again.

Again...in his first year, as a pretty scrawny kid. He has so much upside, it's ridiculous. Cannot believe how brutally judgemental/uninformed this post is.

His first year was not nearly as good as Clark's yet he is gone 2 years later. I like the kids defensive side but am not seeing an out and our star like some on here. I think his upside is a Guthrie level player who is very very good but no star.

 

[Vdubs]

LOL. You could replace Holmes' name with the names of about half of our 2007-11 era players.
And half of those, are the ones we hold up and idolise a decade later.
Makes me laugh when people take a blokes first dozen games and try to put a line through him.
Scarlo, Enright, Corey, Ling, SJ and my all time favourite Chappy.
Just a few, i shook my head on more than a few occasions when they played their first 20 odd games.
Time will tell as it does on all players that walk thru the door.
Cheers

Corey and Boris were at times embarrassing in those early days. Spot-on post. All of those had their moments where we felt they may not make it.

 

[Vdubs]

His first year was not nearly as good as Clark's yet he is gone 2 years later. I like the kids defensive side but am not seeing an out and our star like some on here. I think his upside is a Guthrie level player who is very very good but no star.

If he is as good as CGuthrie, he is a star.

 

[Shadow89]

His first year was not nearly as good as Clark's yet he is gone 2 years later. I like the kids defensive side but am not seeing an out and our star like some on here. I think his upside is a Guthrie level player who is very very good but no star.

Yes but you also judge players extremely harshly too, lol - including Guth in the past. Holmes only played about half the senior games that Clark played, and was less developed too - so there's some big differences.

Also, I watched pretty much every VFL game, as I was enamoured with him from his 1st game. His work rate, combined with speed, skills in close and kicking, just makes him the complete package. He was head and shoulders above every other player on the field in every game I watched him. He'd go from being positioned in the mids, to drifting forward and kicking a goal, to drifting back again to chain up from the back half, and then pushing forward to kick a goal again/provide a goal assist.

His workrate wasn't just Scully or Hill just running up and down doing nothing while racking up k's either - he got involved in everything, and also tackled and did the hard stuff. Again, this was all as a 6'2 and a half 74kg kid, who had only played 5 state level games in the past year. Give him 1 or 2 more pre-seasons, and a consistent role in an AFL side, and he will just get better with every game.

He has the skills, the explosiveness and the workrate to be as good as Danger - with much better kicking ability. That's his ceiling IMO. It might not show at AFL level yet, as he's still quite raw in his development, but his upside will become clearer over the next couple of years. Clark is not fair as a comparison, as he was one of the most ready made prospects, and could play from day 1. Holmes will be far better than Clark, from what I've seen already.

P.S. as others have said, Guth is an AA / B+F midfielder...if that's 'all' Holmes ever makes it to, then he'll still have done pretty damn well.

 

[David the Cat]

If he is as good as CGuthrie, he is a star.

Yes...that's All Australian, B&F Guthrie he's talking about, is it? ???

 

[Cameron_Jezza]

I'm with you, I'm not too fussed if we keep our current picks.

Better to get two picks in the 30's that have say a 40% chance of being a decent player than one player in early 20's with a 60% chance of being ok

 

[OzeSparky]

Just look at the current BF official phantom draft, Bastyy has picked us some very good players so far. Shows that this draft goes pretty deep.

 

[Cameron_Jezza]

No chance he gets past the Tiges - as pretty much every phantom has him in that 25-30 draft range. They have 3 picks in that exact spot, and he won't make it past. If we want both (we'd be lucky to get Knevitt at what will be our Pick 24/25), then we'll definitely have to trade up to at least the Dogs' Pick 23, if not Brisbane's 18 or Hawthorn's 21. Who knows though, as the draft is so even once you get outside the first 6 or so picks

I think we can hopefully swap 32,34 for 23,50. We might have to offer 30,32 though.

 

[Shadow89]

The trouble with reading all the pre-draft stuff is that you keep adding players to your list: it's like reading wine reviews - they sound great but do they taste great? So how to choose between players?

My take is that we have lacked pace and finishing skill for some years now; accordingly in addition to ball-getting ability we need those 2 attributes. It has long amazed me that Wells drafts so few left-footers cf. say the Dogs, Giants or Hawks.

I fear Zac Taylor will go before 22 but what about Josh Taylor? I'm in 2 minds about Knevitt because of he query on his kicking. I do like Tom bBown for half back but he's now likely to go earlier too. Who else is out there in our range with the right attributes?

(Now we're told there are times Parfitt is allowed to get the ball and times not!! If he could get more possessions he most certainly would.)

Agree with a lot of the draft stuff you've said here - as that range in the 2nd round is incredibly close IMO. Having 5 picks within 18 or so selections, gives us some options if that's the way we choose to go.

From what I can garner, and based on our needs, these are the players I'd be happy to pick up in that rough range, that all fill a need in one way or another:

- Tom Brown
- Mitch Knevitt
- Zac Taylor
- Leek Alleer
- Matthew Roberts
- Sam Butler
- Darcy Wilmot
- Greg Clark
- Toby Conway
- Jesse Motlop (NGA)
- Josh Fahey (NGA)
- Campbell Chesser
- Rhett Bazzo
- Angus Sheldrick
- Marcus Windhager (NGA)
- Alastair Lord

***************************************

Given that would be the list I would have up for our draft range (unless Arlo Draper somehow slips like he magically did in the main board Phantom), then there's an absolute plethora of choices available in that range that most would be happy with.

3 are NGA's, but the other 13 are all possible, and all around that range. If we could snag 4 or 5 from the above list, I think I might pass out from the joy, lol

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Looking at the board... I'm leaning to North's Pick 20 as having some real potential in a pick swap TBH.
They have 5 holes to fill... 1-20-42-47 is all they really have.
Mmmm... interesting. Can we nab 20 & 23 in one fowl swoop...??

 

[Shadow89]

I think we can hopefully swap 32,34 for 23,50. We might have to offer 30,32 though.

Would be more likely we'd be after 23 and a Future 3rd instead - as trading up would give us an extra list spot too. Having 22 and 23 (24/25), would be a perfect range to snare two class players that address immediate needs.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

That's 2007-2011. From 2011-now generally the opposite with players such as Holmes, Clark and Cockatoo are talked up but don't develop as expected.

How is Holmes development below expectations? What were you expecting?

 

[OzeSparky]

I think we can hopefully swap 32,34 for 23,50. We might have to offer 30,32 though.

I hope we keep what we have.