Goodwin primed for big year

[noddy]

I'm still pml about Caroline Wilson having the Bulldogs in her top 4 for season 2004. Some of those vic journos have got their heads so far up their.....

Arse portentous it's called a bloody ARSE

 

[noddy]

69 days to go. It can't come soon enough.

That number has a certain ring to it.

Anyway your dead right it can't come sooner enough.

 

[ok.crows]

Goes the other way too remember. A lot of Crows supporters on here (namely ok.crows) laughed and scoffed at posters who dared suggest the Crows wouldnt make the top 4 at the beginning of last year.

Hey Macca, that was very much uncalled for, a tiny bit of history revisionism there. What the heck, I will call a spade a spade - Macca, that was 100% bull.

I did say during the preseason (Jan & Feb 2004) that I thought it very unlikely that the Crows would miss the 8. I actually tipped us for 6th, so that would be bloody impossible to line up with "laughed and scoffed at posters who dared suggest the Crows wouldnt make the top 4". The Crows not making the top 4 was my own tip.

Come the Wizard Cup, when I saw the gameplan that Ayres seemd to have in mind (and the famous "how wide is wide" quote came out), then I had doubts. Serious doubts.

After the very first game of 2004, I had seen enough, and I changed my tip for 2004. I thought the Crows might be 0-7 after round 7, and qualify for a priority pick at the end of 2004.

 

[ok.crows]

Big ifs, but if everything goes right, we're a chance at anywhere 5-8ish.

Maybe. IMO the best "feasible" finish in 2005 is 8th. In a "perfect" season the crows might get one place higher, but a perfect season almost never happens.

IMO, the likely range for 2005 is 8-12. Having said that, I had our likely finish for 2004 at this time last year from 4-8, and we finished well below that expectation.

It seems to me that a "horror" year is far more common than a "near perfect" year, and that as a consequence if you get a result well outside what originally seemed feasible, then it will be a worse result rather than a better result.

 

[ok.crows]

I think it may only take 3-4 injuries to some senior players before you start looking shakier and start heading towards the 9-12 mark instead of the 7-10 mark.

Personlly, I think 7-10 is a bit ambitious. I have us down for 8-12.

The bottom 4 calls are a bit off the mark unless you start looking at some long term injuries to a number of your key players but then there are 5-6 other clubs in that situation as well

Exaclty. If you consider a team for bottom 4 because it could happen given injuries to key players, then you really should also consider those same injuries to key players of other sides that you might consider for bottom 4. One should always compare apples with apples here.

 

[Macca19]

Come the Wizard Cup, when I saw the gameplan that Ayres seemd to have in mind (and the famous "how wide is wide" quote came out), then I had doubts. Serious doubts.

After the very first game of 2004, I had seen enough, and I changed my tip for 2004. I thought the Crows might be 0-7 after round 7, and qualify for a priority pick at the end of 2004.

Correct, i do remember during the Wizz Cup you started to have doubts, however, before that you voiced your dismay at people you had tipped the Crows to finish outside the eight. You said there was no logical reason to suggest the Crows would finish outside the eight.

This Link here is the one I remember most.

 

[maccas_no1]

If we manage to get Goodwin, McLeod and Ricciuto all playing at or near their best for much of the year, then we will surprise quite a few this year.


****

Spot On The Money!!!!!!!!!

 

[ok.crows]

Correct, i do remember during the Wizz Cup you started to have doubts, however, before that you voiced your dismay at people you had tipped the Crows to finish outside the eight. You said there was no logical reason to suggest the Crows would finish outside the eight.

This Link here is the one I remember most.

I tipped the Crows for 6th place (actually 4th-8th) early in 2004.

Saying that I doubted the Crows would miss the eight is a long, long way from "laughing and scoffing at those who dared suggest the Crows would not make top 4".

Face it Macca, you were wr ... you were wrrr, wrrrr, wrrro ... you were deadset wrong.

 

[Macca19]

I tipped the Crows for 6th place (actually 4th-8th) early in 2004.

Saying that I doubted the Crows would miss the eight is a long, long way from "laughing and scoffing at those who dared suggest the Crows would not make top 4".

Face it Macca, you were wr ... you were wrrr, wrrrr, wrrro ... you were deadset wrong.

So youre trying to tell me that these quotes below arent having a go at predictions of a Crows fall down the ladder and arent at all a touch arrogant? Maybe I shouldnt have said top 4...maybe I should have said top 8.:

1. "Why ? Because they lost Bickley ?

Not having Bickley is going to make the Crows slip to 10th ?

Gee, I didn't think he was that good a player."

2. "He was good, but dont let em worry you have a look at last years predictions, no idea!!"

3. Put it this way - I fail to see where they will decline by anything like as much as you suggest."

4. merely point out that for a similar strength side, if there is going to be a fluctuation, you wouldn't think it would go the same direction twice.

5. It turns out he had a superb {NOT!} reason - "the Crows players will be a year older". Well der!

6. I'm still waiting to hear some sort of sensible reasoning from you that would indicate why you might think that suddenly in 2004 the Crows would stumble as badly as you seem to think they will.

7. I am sorry did you just say "lack of fire power up forward"??????

So a forward line of Welsh, Stevens, Carey, Ladhams, Johncock, Burton, Burns and rotating midfielders like Ricciuto, McLeod, Goodwin, Edwards and Bode, is not good enough to kick the winning score??????

You have got to be kidding.

8. So let them underestimate the Crows, as it will only contribute to their own downfall.

9. The thing is, people are soooooooo ready to write the Crows off. If Crows fans pipe up & say hey, wait a minute, the Crows should actually do OK ... then they will just write us off even more.

It is very amusing actually.

10. I think you get the prize for the lowest tip for Adelaide in 2004.

I congratulate you for the boldness of this tip.

Adelaide's losses last year were nearly all close goes, yet at round 19 Adelaide was second and was the only team that had a shot at displacing Port from top spot. Could easily have finished minor round premiers.

Next year Adelaide will have perhaps a slightly stronger side, potentially the same team except younger with Reilly & Schuback probably replacing Bickley & Burns in the side.

Personally I can't see any way they would slide to 13th. There would have to be six or seven "knees" in round 1.
---------------------------------------------

Come on ok.....if thats not scoffing at someone suggesting the Crows will be the biggest droppers in 04 then i dont know what is. May not be scoffing at a top 4 spot....but its still scoffing none the less.

Im not personally having a go at you here ok.crows.

 

[tribey]

If we manage to get Goodwin, McLeod and Ricciuto all playing at or near their best for much of the year, then we will surprise quite a few this year.

****

Mmmm, the few being Hawthorn, Richmond, Footscray and possibly Collingwood.



In all seriousness, I agree. As I've stated previously somewhere on this board recently, we could finish anywhere between 6th and 14th this season depending on the run of the green.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I did say during the preseason (Jan & Feb 2004) that I thought it very unlikely that the Crows would miss the 8. I actually tipped us for 6th...

After the very first game of 2004, I had seen enough, and I changed my tip for 2004. I thought the Crows might be 0-7 after round 7, and qualify for a priority pick at the end of 2004.

How can you change your mind so dramatically after 1 game - from not missing the eight & finish around 6th - to qualifying for a priority pick & around the bottom? Schizophrenic thinking IMO...

 

[WaynesWorld19]

How can you change your mind so dramatically after 1 game - from not missing the eight & finish around 6th - to qualifying for a priority pick & around the bottom? Schizophrenic thinking IMO...

 

[Markthirtytwo]

Don't you get nervous reading about how well previously injured players are going during preseason training? I get "spooked" whenever I read about Primus or Francou training well, like it's gonna induce "bad karma" or something.

Goodwin's too good a player to not be playing. Hope he goes ok in 2005, but not too well.

You would have to wonder how their mindset is going to handle the rigors of footy. Even if they are 100% physically ok the mind can do strange things to a human athlete. They are too good to be out of the game.

 

[ok.crows]

Come on ok.....if thats not scoffing at someone suggesting the Crows will be the biggest droppers in 04 then i dont know what is. May not be scoffing at a top 4 spot....but its still scoffing none the less.

Im not personally having a go at you here ok.crows.

Come on Macca19, there was just no way in hell I ever said anything remotely akin to "laughing and scoffing at those who dared suggest the Crows would not make top 4".

Not even close.

You were deadset wrong.

As it turned out ... so was I. I just couldn't imagine that Ayres could hit upon a gameplan bad enough to cause a drop to 13th ... but I was wrong. The "how wide is wide" gameplan was pure genius in that it almost (only dropped to 12th) achieved something that I thought it was just not possible to do.

However, when I saw that gameplan (and it only took 1 game to see it) - I could tell that Ayres had done it. It was so bad I thought there might be a spoon in it for Adelaide.

Fortunately, Ayres walked out midyear. It got a bit better after that.

 

[ok.crows]

How can you change your mind so dramatically after 1 game - from not missing the eight & finish around 6th - to qualifying for a priority pick & around the bottom? Schizophrenic thinking IMO...

Did you see the games?

The team was dreadful. Worse than dreadful. I had never seen Adelaide so disorganised and ineffectual in my life.

It was like watching a team of good "state-level" basketballers trying to win a game of water polo at the olympics. They were clearly drowning in the attempt.

There was even talk during the Wizard Cup that Ayres must be foxing - that he must have a "real" gameplan up his sleeve that he didn't want to reveal in the Wizard Cup.

Nope.

After round 1 against the Kangaroos, Ayres finally became the "dead man walking" that Bone thought he was in his first year at AFC.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Did you see the games?

The team was dreadful. Worse than dreadful. I had never seen Adelaide so disorganised and ineffectual in my life.

It was like watching a team of good "state-level" basketballers trying to win a game of water polo at the olympics. They were clearly drowning in the attempt.

There was even talk during the Wizard Cup that Ayres must be foxing - that he must have a "real" gameplan up his sleeve that he didn't want to reveal in the Wizard Cup.

Nope.

After round 1 against the Kangaroos, Ayres finally became the "dead man walking" that Bone thought he was in his first year at AFC.

Yes, I saw the games ... but my point was that your opinion seems to change between extremes, depending on (how) the hot wind is blowing. Port have often played crap footy pre-season & even lost their 1st game ... but I haven't changed my projection of their end of season position, just on a game or few!

 

[ok.crows]

Yes, I saw the games ... but my point was that your opinion seems to change between extremes, depending on (how) the hot wind is blowing. Port have often played crap footy pre-season & even lost their 1st game ... but I haven't changed my projection of their end of season position, just on a game or few!

The reason for this is the REASON why the footy that Adelaide was playing was crap.

Port often have started a season with unfit players or a bity rusty. That will come good.

Adelaide started a season with a deadset recipie for disaster in the very basis on how they were going to approach the games, and they had a coach who was the most stubborn "stick with it" person in the known universe and who was in blatent denial about how bad the team was playing under that gameplan.

Adelaides goose was well & truly cooked for 2004.

 

[tztommo]

Yes, I saw the games ... but my point was that your opinion seems to change between extremes, depending on (how) the hot wind is blowing. Port have often played crap footy pre-season & even lost their 1st game ... but I haven't changed my projection of their end of season position, just on a game or few!

Exactly ok.crows you seem to think that you can get an positive prediction from one game

 

[ok.crows]

Exactly ok.crows you seem to think that you can get an positive prediction from one game

My reply: "Adelaide started a season with a deadset recipie for disaster in the very basis on how they were going to approach the games, and they had a coach who was the most stubborn 'stick with it' person in the known universe and who was in blatent denial about how bad the team was playing under that gameplan."

Yes, you can indeed tell this from one game - although for me I made the call after watching all the Wizard Cup (& sundry matches) then round 1 - 5 games.

 

[Crow-mosone]

I just couldn't imagine that Ayres could hit upon a gameplan bad enough to cause a drop to 13th ... but I was wrong. The "how wide is wide" gameplan was pure genius in that it almost (only dropped to 12th) achieved something that I thought it was just not possible to do.

However, when I saw that gameplan (and it only took 1 game to see it) - I could tell that Ayres had done it. It was so bad I thought there might be a spoon in it for Adelaide.

Fortunately, Ayres walked out midyear. It got a bit better after that.

is that what you really think happened?