Guess at the Week 1 Finals Schedule

[Dan26]

I said it was something the AFL was looking to avoid, I didn't say it's what I would necessarily do.

I'm not surprised you have constructed it to give Essendon an advantage in both weeks though. Get ready to play on Sunday.

I'm not "constructing" anything to give Essendon an advantage. I don't even want to play Friday night. I'd much rather play an afternoon game on a Saturday or Sunday.

But the facts are that West Coast need to play an afternoon game. They need to get back to Perth on the same day they play so that they have minimal travel disruption.

This means two of the other three games will be night games and the Carl-Ess game is the biggest and highest-crowd drawing game, and the AFL would be keen to play it in the marquee slot of Friday night.

If you were in charge of the AFL and you were trying to make the Friday night game the biggest match in terms of TV ratings and attendance, you'd do the same thing.

Exactly the same thing happened in 2006.

This issue about "fairness" is rubbish, beause as long as every semi-final team has a minimum 6-day break (which they will) and every team has no more than "one extra day" than their opponent to prepare for the next game, then it is fair.

 

[doodlefeatures]

In 2006 they didn't have the 'floating' schedule in the final round so it couldn't be avoided.

And I reckon more neutral fans are going to be keeping an eye on Geelong-Hawthorn than any other game in week 1

 

[Dan26]

In 2006 they didn't have the 'floating' schedule in the final round so it couldn't be avoided.

And I reckon more neutral fans are going to be keeping an eye on Geelong-Hawthorn than any other game in week 1

Its funny because the QF's have been irrelevant in recent years with all 4 teams just playing off in the Preliminary Finals, but in a different order.

Mathematically, the 4 Qualifying Final teams all have an 18.75% probability of winning the flag.

The winners of the QF's this week increase their probability by 6.25 to 25%, and the losers reduce their probabilty by 6.25 to 12.5%

The Elimination finasl teams all have a 6.25% chance of winning the flag and the two winners improve their chance by 6.25 to 12.5%

So technically the winners of all 4 games thos weekend improve their chances by 6.25 percentage points. But the Elimination finals do this whilst facing knockout hence I would argue any elimination match is more important.

It is not essential for Hawthorn nor Geelong to win this week. Brisbane (2003), Sydney (2005) West Coast (2006) all proved this.

But it IS essential for all 4 Elimination Final teams to win.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. People love knockout finals.

 

[teknodeejay]

And I reckon more neutral fans are going to be keeping an eye on Geelong-Hawthorn than any other game in week 1

I know I will be. From the Southern Stand. It could be one helluva a game and I want to be there to see it.

 

[natrap]

Its funny because the QF's have been irrelevant in recent years with all 4 teams just playing off in the Preliminary Finals, but in a different order.

Mathematically, the 4 Qualifying Final teams all have an 18.75% probability of winning the flag.

The winners of the QF's this week increase their probability by 6.25 to 25%, and the losers reduce their probabilty by 6.25 to 12.5%

The Elimination finasl teams all have a 6.25% chance of winning the flag and the two winners improve their chance by 6.25 to 12.5%

So technically the winners of all 4 games thos weekend improve their chances by 6.25 percentage points. But the Elimination finals do this whilst facing knockout hence I would argue any elimination match is more important.

It is not essential for Hawthorn nor Geelong to win this week. Brisbane (2003), Sydney (2005) West Coast (2006) all proved this.

But it IS essential for all 4 Elimination Final teams to win.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. People love knockout finals.

Those probabilities are only valid if the games are decided by tossing a coin, or you know nothing other than two teams are playing and only one will win. In fact we know a lot more.. It's like saying that it will either rain or not rain tomorrow therefore there is a 50% chance it will rain tomorrow, when you should be looking at weather charts etc.

 

[doppleganger]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. People love knockout finals.

I agree with this.

But the biggest final of week 1 for neutrals will be Haw v Geel, winner sets themselves up for flag...loser is basically long odds to even get to the GF.

Ess v Carl aint that big a deal, neither team a real threat to do any serious damage.

The top 4 team that loses should have a longer break between games than the 5-8 team also.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

This thread is filled with rational people who understand that the fixtures are set in stone.

And then there are also irrational supporters from Essendon and Hawthorn (only a small minority of posters from these teams) who want to play on Saturday at the MCG, and will work backwards to try to come up with an argument as to why that will occur.

Not that I blame them, I'd probably do the same if West Coast wasn't going to get what we wanted.

Finishing 4th could not have been more perfect for West Coast.

Under the assumption we beat you first week, you get a home final, double chance AND wouldn't have to play us again till Grand Final day (again, we're assuming we're there on GF Day).

 

[SpecialComments]

So, based on that age article and if the ladder positions remained the same, the fixture would be this:

Finals Week 1

Friday, 9th of September 2011
2nd Qualifying Final
Geelong v Hawthorn at the MCG (7:45pm)

Saturday, 10th of September 2011
1st Qualifying Final
Collingwood v West Coast at the MCG. (2:30pm)

2nd Elimination Final
St Kilda v Sydney at Etihad Stadium. (7:20pm)

Sunday, 11th of September 2011
1st Elimination Final
Carlton v Essendon at the MCG. (2:40pm)
-----------------------------------------------------
Finals Week 2

Friday, 16th of September 2011
2nd Semi Final
Hawthorn v St Kilda at the MCG. (7:45pm)

Saturday, 17th of September 2011
1st Semi Final
West Coast v Carlton at Subiaco. (7:20pm)
-------------------------------------------------------
Finals Week 3

Friday, 23rd of September 2011
1st Preliminary Final
Collingwood v Hawthorn at the MCG. (7:45pm)

Saturday, 24th of September 2011
2nd Preliminary Final
Geelong v West Coast at the MCG. (7:20pm)
-------------------------------------------------------
Finals Week 4

Saturday, 1st of October 2011
Grand Final
Collingwood v Geelong at the MCG. (2:30pm)
---------------------------------------------------------
(If all the higher ranked teams won).
Most likely the fixture, and the times.

I've never understood the starting times for week 1 of finals.

Friday Night - 7:45pm start (so that means 15mins preview for broadcaster)
Sat Arvo - 2:30pm start (30mins preview)
Sat Night - 7:20pm start (20mins preview)
Sunday Arvo - 2:40pm start (40min preview)

Why are there such differentials - could someone care to explain?

 

[billy ray v]

Coll v West Coast must not and should not be friday night - if it is Friday night it won't be shown live in perth as its 5:45pm and channel 7 - the self proclaimed home of football - will never show Friday night football live in Perth.

I'm even a bit scared about potentially getting a Saturday night final as last year, Ten (and One's simulcast) was on 30 min delay throughout the finals...

 

[FootyJunkie]

I've never understood the starting times for week 1 of finals.

Friday Night - 7:45pm start (so that means 15mins preview for broadcaster)
Sat Arvo - 2:30pm start (30mins preview)
Sat Night - 7:20pm start (20mins preview)
Sunday Arvo - 2:40pm start (40min preview)

Why are there such differentials - could someone care to explain?

Anthem?

 

[Selective Retention]

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/sydney-final-may-be-at-scg-20110829-1jie0.html

So Sydney could play Friday night at the SCG.

Would mean Collingwood play West Coast at Etihad and the loser of Cats/Hawks likely gets a 6 day break v. 7 day break from the winner of Swans/Saints presuming they hold a semi final on a friday night.

This will get some people pissed off.

 

[MACDAICOS]

No chance of Collingwood playing West Coast at Etihad.

None.

 

[Kirby]

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/sydney-final-may-be-at-scg-20110829-1jie0.html

So Sydney could play Friday night at the G.

Would mean Collingwood play West Coast at Etihad and the loser of Cats/Hawks likely gets a 6 day break v. 7 day break from the winner of Swans/Saints presuming they hold a semi final on a friday night.

This will get some people pissed off.

That whole scenario is so stuffed it defies all logic and sense.

The uproar would be enormous and the AFL will damage it's own brand enormously in its biggest state.

 

[Rob]

Coll v West Coast must not and should not be friday night - if it is Friday night it won't be shown live in perth as its 5:45pm and channel 7 - the self proclaimed home of football - will never show Friday night football live in Perth.

They did last year for the Freo-Geelong final.

 

[captain peanut]

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/sydney-final-may-be-at-scg-20110829-1jie0.html

So Sydney could play Friday night at the SCG.

Would mean Collingwood play West Coast at Etihad and the loser of Cats/Hawks likely gets a 6 day break v. 7 day break from the winner of Swans/Saints presuming they hold a semi final on a friday night.

This will get some people pissed off.

you're right about a whole lot of people being pissed off. a whole lot of haw and geel fans who won't get to see the game when it's played at etihad. under the scenario contemplated, with both qualifying finals in melb on the saturday, the pies would play wce at the mcg, while geel would "host" haw at etihad. this assumes geel hold onto 2nd this weekend of course. but if they do, as the higher placed of the 2 teams, and being an etihad tenant, that game would be held there. and collingwood, being an mcg tenant, would host a final at their home venue

 

[catters078]

you're right about a whole lot of people being pissed off. a whole lot of haw and geel fans who won't get to see the game when it's played at etihad. under the scenario contemplated, with both qualifying finals in melb on the saturday, the pies would play wce at the mcg, while geel would "host" haw at etihad. this assumes geel hold onto 2nd this weekend of course. but if they do, as the higher placed of the 2 teams, and being an etihad tenant, that game would be held there. and collingwood, being an mcg tenant, would host a final at their home venue

It says Coll WCE will be at etihad

 

[Adz]

Eddie confirmed on MMM that we are playing Saturday (day or night) with the MCG confirmed from AFL.

Looks like Cats v Hawks at Eithad that night.

 

[captain peanut]

It says Coll WCE will be at etihad

no it doesn't. it just says at the end that

"Carlton looks certain to play Essendon at the MCG on Sunday week with Network Ten predicting it would host the other qualifying final between Collingwood and West Coast on the Saturday."

no mention of venue. coll v wce will draw 70,000 odd to the G. no problem. top team will get preference in the fixturing, that is a given as well. if someone is to be shafted, it is going to be the geel v haw game to etihad and the afl have pretty much confirmed as much this mroning by declaring that the coll game is going to either sat arvo or night at the MCG. i am sure that sanity will prevail tho and geel v haw will played fri night

​

 

[Adz]

The AFL are just gonna have to suck it up and have Saints/Swans at ANZ.

 

[Jade]

If any game is to be at Etihad it would have to be the Carlton vs Essendon game, unless Geelong asks otherwise if they're 2nd. Even then, it won't happen and there will be three games at MCG.

Absolute freakin fail....

 

[catters078]

no it doesn't. it just says at the end that

"Carlton looks certain to play Essendon at the MCG on Sunday week with Network Ten predicting it would host the other qualifying final between Collingwood and West Coast on the Saturday."

no mention of venue. coll v wce will draw 70,000 odd to the G. no problem. top team will get preference in the fixturing, that is a given as well. if someone is to be shafted, it is going to be the geel v haw game to etihad and the afl have pretty much confirmed as much this mroning by declaring that the coll game is going to either sat arvo or night at the MCG. i am sure that sanity will prevail tho and geel v haw will played fri night

Geelong hawthorn will get more than Collingwood West Coast.

And it will be the most anticipated game of the weekend.

No chance the cats and hawks will play at etihad.

Why would the AFL throw a spanner up like this? Just play Sydney Stkilda on the saturday at the SCG..Surely logic prevails

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Whats wrong with the following
Haw-Geel Fri MCG
Coll WC Sat arvo MCG
StKilda Syd Sat night Etihad or Sydney, doesnt matter where.
Carl Ess Sun arvo MCG

The Eagles by finishing top four deserve an afternoon game so they can fly home at a reasonable time.

If Sydney ends up hosting a final.....does Etihad contractually HAVE to host a game? If so I guess theres no choice but to play Collingwood West Coast at Etihad....but still on the Saturday arvo. The other games would take precedence at the MCG. In that case I will be barracking for StKilda this weekend!!

 

[Scodog10]

Geelong hawthorn will get more than Collingwood West Coast.

And it will be the most anticipated game of the weekend.

No chance the cats and hawks will play at etihad.

Why would the AFL throw a spanner up like this? Just play Sydney Stkilda on the saturday at the SCG..Surely logic prevails

Logic does prevail, which begs the question of why you said that Collingwood v West Coast would be at Etihad when the article doesn't say anything like that? Was it to shit stir or did you just simply not read the article?

There is buckley's of Sydney v St Kilda being on the Friday night as Geelong v Hawthorn is the prime match of the round which means that the MCG will be free on the Saturday if Sydney get the home final.

Considering Collingwood have 70,000 members I think just quietly we'll be at the G on that day! Etihad missing a final again this year simply means they'll be compensated with 2 extra games again next year.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Andy Demetriou will be barracking his butt off for StKilda to beat Carlton this weekend so he has a suitable game to schedule at Etihad.

Otherwise he will have to decide whether to forced Collingwood to play there despite it being too small for their audience, or to tell Etihad to bugger off and put another Etihad final on the never-never.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Eddie confirmed on MMM that we are playing Saturday (day or night) with the MCG confirmed from AFL.

Looks like Cats v Hawks at Eithad that night.

Great Success!!