Have Geelong sold their future?

[krisholio14]

What's so hard to understand, honestly?

When you can add 4 players that will immediately improve our list without selling the house to do so, you do it.

If we want picks next year, we will find a way to get them. That's why being good trade partners is always a plus.

 

[Catatonic Shock]

how did Sandilands come in to the system as a rookie? I thought he was more chewbacca .....

..... Indeed

 

[Sttew]

how did Sandilands come in to the system as a rookie? I thought he was more chewbacca .....

He was only 5'10" when he was drafted as a rookie

 

[Teriyakicat]

how did Sandilands come in to the system as a rookie? I thought he was more chewbacca .....

Probably was a big unco bloke- wasn't rookied till he was 20. There's a message there for all the 205+ guys: keep fit and keep trying. Clubs are desperate for big boys these days and most of them don't hit their straps till their mid 20s or so.

 

[Teriyakicat]

He was only 5'10" when he was drafted as a rookie

Really? Gee- he was a late grower, then, wasn't he?
I think my brother in law said he had a growth spurt when he was 20. 4" or so, finishing at 6'4"

 

[Bardo State]

I posted this in the Henderson thread, but it might be more appropriate to continue the discussion here...


Thanks 10lana

So, to carry on the discussion with Seeds, catempire and The rabbi...

It looks like the chances of getting 10 years from a 1st/2nd round draftee are about 37%.

Trying to apply some science...

Let's say
- the chances of getting 5 years from a mature traded-in player are 80% * given injury/form
- the value of draft picks you need to trade to get them are roughly 150% ** of the picks used to draft them initially

* - number plucked from thin air
** - somewhere between what we gave up for Dangerfield and Henderson​

Then, ummm, the value, in draft picks, of each year of service would be...

(years of service) x (probabilty of realizing that) / (picks)​

Drafted player = 10 x 37% / 100% = 3.7
Traded player = 5 x 80% / 150% = 2.7

Or, being more optimistic
Traded player = 5 x 90% / 120% = 3.75

So, it's actually not too far off, with a little good luck.

The competition will be watching with great interest. If we can emulate some of Hawthorn's recent success with this strategy then we might see some teams using this strategy.

I got bored. With a bit of spare time, I went through the 95-01 drafts and looked at players picked either side of 9, 28 and 49 as well as those picks to try to work out what you can statistically expect. Giving Geelong's future first round pick the same weighting as this year's pick 9, the four picks given up equate to:

524 games
1.25 AA selections
0.5 Best and Fairest awards

If you want the breakdown by pick it's:

Pick 9: 160 games, 0.5 AA, 0.1 B+F
Pick 28: 128 games, 0.2 AA, 0.3 B+F
Pick 49: 76 games, 0.05 AA

Obviously not all games are worth the same amount and you have to take list strategy into account. However statistically, Geelong would want Dangerfield, Henderson and Smith to collectively outperform the above. They probably won't meet the games requirement but should smash the AA-barrier. Indicative that Geelong have traded in more quality for a shorter period of time. Trying to weight games on quality is hard, one way to do it would be through weighting by All-Australian selections. To do that, they would need to surpass 189 games x AA selections. Given Dangerfield's quality you would expect that to happen. Obviously I haven't accounted for the outgoing Geelong players, which you probably should.

 

[Teriyakicat]

I got bored. With a bit of spare time, I went through the 95-01 drafts and looked at players picked either side of 9, 28 and 49 as well as those picks to try to work out what you can statistically expect. Giving Geelong's future first round pick the same weighting as this year's pick 9, the four picks given up equate to:

524 games
1.25 AA selections
0.5 Best and Fairest awards

If you want the breakdown by pick it's:

Pick 9: 160 games, 0.5 AA, 0.1 B+F
Pick 28: 128 games, 0.2 AA, 0.3 B+F
Pick 49: 76 games, 0.05 AA

Obviously not all games are worth the same amount and you have to take list strategy into account. However statistically, Geelong would want Dangerfield, Henderson and Smith to collectively outperform the above. They probably won't meet the games requirement but should smash the AA-barrier. Indicative that Geelong have traded in more quality for a shorter period of time. Trying to weight games on quality is hard, one way to do it would be through weighting by All-Australian selections. To do that, they would need to surpass 189 games x AA selections. Given Dangerfield's quality you would expect that to happen. Obviously I haven't accounted for the outgoing Geelong players, which you probably should.

It'd be great if you could get bored more often and number-crunch more of that interesting stuff.
Great work!

Yes- these 4 blokes have been brought in to address the gaping hole we have in our "hourglass" list. The list management blokes have chosen top draft picks, Rising Stars, etc., which is great because, back in their draft year, we were picking last. Hopefully they have some of their best years ahead of them.

 

[Bardo State]

It'd be great if you could get bored more often and number-crunch more of that interesting stuff.
Great work!

Yes- these 4 blokes have been brought in to address the gaping hole we have in our "hourglass" list. The list management blokes have chosen top draft picks, Rising Stars, etc., which is great because, back in their draft year, we were picking last. Hopefully they have some of their best years ahead of them.

If I ever got more bored than I ever plan to for the remaining days of my life, I could probably build a model around it, develop a better weighting index for quality of performance, develop confidence intervals, account for risk. I'll leave all that until someone wants to pay me handsomely to do so . Shout-out to any AFL big wigs trawling through the forums that want to fix up the points system or play dice with draft picks and want to give a kid some spending money!

 

[Teriyakicat]

If I ever got more bored than I ever plan to for the remaining days of my life, I could probably build a model around it, develop a better weighting index for quality of performance, develop confidence intervals, account for risk. I'll leave all that until someone wants to pay me handsomely to do so . Shout-out to any AFL big wigs trawling through the forums that want to fix up the points system or play dice with draft picks and want to give a kid some spending money!

Good luck with that.
Do you have a Uni degree in stats?
Or actuarial science, maybe?

 

[Bardo State]

Good luck with that.
Do you have a Uni degree in stats?
Or actuarial science, maybe?

Studying commerce but there are some stats based subjects.

 

[Turbocat]

It looks like the chances of getting 10 years from a 1st/2nd round draftee are about 37%.

Trying to apply some science...

Let's say
- the chances of getting 5 years from a mature traded-in player are 80% * given injury/form
- the value of draft picks you need to trade to get them are roughly 150% ** of the picks used to draft them initially

* - number plucked from thin air
** - somewhere between what we gave up for Dangerfield and Henderson​

Then, ummm, the value, in draft picks, of each year of service would be...

(years of service) x (probabilty of realizing that) / (picks)​

Drafted player = 10 x 37% / 100% = 3.7
Traded player = 5 x 80% / 150% = 2.7

Or, being more optimistic
Traded player = 5 x 90% / 120% = 3.75

So, it's actually not too far off, with a little good luck.

The competition will be watching with great interest. If we can emulate some of Hawthorn's recent success with this strategy then we might see some teams using this strategy.

Like with all stats the devil is in the detail..... is it 37% for us , or across the comp .. My guess that figure would be different from on club to another.
and 10 years... of football ..lets say NC5... will not be 10 years at the level we will get from a PnP Dangerfield for 5 . It might take 4 years for NC5 to be a reliable regular contributor.

We probably have to look at it case by case. In estimating our

Id say Danger is a 6 year player min... that he should be able to perform at top level for 4-5 years min.

What would a player drafted in this draft represent to us in performance etc harder to reconcile.

Interesting moneyball approach

 

[Vdubs]

He was only 5'10" when he was drafted as a rookie

Not when he stood up.

 

[Wojcinski]

I just don't understand the idea that Geelong is screwed if we don't win with our current group? All four recruits are 25 and we've opted out of the first 3 rounds of this draft and the first round of the next draft. Adelaide supporters especially do my nut over this, didn't they lose two years worth of the first two rounds over the Tippett thing? If you look at what Collingwood traded for their players, who whilst younger are definitely not at the skill level ours are - then they've sold their future too? Hawthorns been selling their future for the past six years!

I'll never understand this 'Manchester Cats' bullsh*t either, I guess its just another way for Hawthorn to have a dig at us despite the fact that their club had more recruits from other teams than any other in 2015

 

[Gazza Greatness]

I just don't understand the idea that Geelong is screwed if we don't win with our current group? All four recruits are 25 and we've opted out of the first 3 rounds of this draft and the first round of the next draft. Adelaide supporters especially do my nut over this, didn't they lose two years worth of the first two rounds over the Tippett thing? If you look at what Collingwood traded for their players, who whilst younger are definitely not at the skill level ours are - then they've sold their future too? Hawthorns been selling their future for the past six years!

I'll never understand this 'Manchester Cats' bullsh*t either, I guess its just another way for Hawthorn to have a dig at us despite the fact that their club had more recruits from other teams than any other in 2015

Well stated!

 

[Turbocat]

I just don't understand the idea that Geelong is screwed if we don't win with our current group? All four recruits are 25 and we've opted out of the first 3 rounds of this draft and the first round of the next draft. Adelaide supporters especially do my nut over this, didn't they lose two years worth of the first two rounds over the Tippett thing? If you look at what Collingwood traded for their players, who whilst younger are definitely not at the skill level ours are - then they've sold their future too? Hawthorns been selling their future for the past six years!

I'll never understand this 'Manchester Cats' bullsh*t either, I guess its just another way for Hawthorn to have a dig at us despite the fact that their club had more recruits from other teams than any other in 2015

Haven't read that but then I don't go looking for the negative that abound on other boards. Too many deal in absolutes , when realistically we can only deal in probabilities. Its probable that drafting best 22 players from this year and next is harder and therefore more likely we left with a deficiency in this age group. It will only show up in 5 to 6 years... just as the failure of 08 and 09 has hit home the last couple of years.
There is no doubt that the assess to players thru Fa and trade has not been as easy as it currently is for many a year. Its follows that to redress a hole , one can do this better now than in recent times.
So while the pressure is on to find 2-3 players from the next two drafts , our future is not totally tied to this years deals but it certainly has the potential to constrain our future approach

 

[Gazza Greatness]

Haven't read that but then I don't go looking for the negative that abound on other boards. Too many deal in absolutes , when realistically we can only deal in probabilities. Its probable that drafting best 22 players from this year and next is harder and therefore more likely we left with a deficiency in this age group. It will only show up in 5 to 6 years... just as the failure of 08 and 09 has hit home the last couple of years.
There is no doubt that the assess to players thru Fa and trade has not been as easy as it currently is for many a year. Its follows that to redress a hole , one can do this better now than in recent times.
So while the pressure is on to find 2-3 players from the next two drafts , our future is not totally tied to this years deals but it certainly has the potential to constrain our future approach

The direction of Free Agency somewhat changes the rules and goalposts, too many footy followers are looking too much into past results, picking experienced players in 24/25 age group that want to come to YOUR club means you can somewhat short circuit your development programme, many recruited draft picks simply NEVER make good footballers and clog the list for YEARS..... free agency is now available EVERY year and with Geelong Falcons and Geelong being a country town near surf and sand as well as being one of the best run clubs in AFL means the club will in future continue to appeal to certain players in the 24/25 age group that are already proven AFL players and are looking for a change, Geelong Footy Club has much APPEAL and will continue to do so in future..... GO CATS!

 

[Turbocat]

The direction of Free Agency somewhat changes the rules and goalposts, too many footy followers are looking too much into past results, picking experienced players in 24/25 age group that want to come to YOUR club means you can somewhat short circuit your development programme, many recruited draft picks simply NEVER make good footballers and clog the list for YEARS..... free agency is now available EVERY year and with Geelong Falcons and Geelong being a country town near surf and sand as well as being one of the best run clubs in AFL means the club will in future continue to appeal to certain players in the 24/25 age group that are already proven AFL players and are looking for a change, Geelong Footy Club has much APPEAL and will continue to do so in future..... GO CATS!

All clubs have some point of difference , something that might give them a recruitment edge. Some have more arrows in their quiver. Pies with their big following , the BB games etc may appeal to some while to others our set of advantages may well appeal. I agree to a point . In that type of environment , success and potential success can draw more players to the club. By bringing in Danger etc. , we may well have even more interest in our club next year. However , it was not so long ago that ..our club could not interest even half decent footballers so while some Falcons may want to come back , other may be quite happy to seek alternatives or be happy where they are. Boak for instance.

It would be interesting to build a list of potential players who may be interested in the next couple of years. The most obvious to my mind is Schofield..FA and if he wants it , should be very gettable.

 

[candiehappy]

The direction of Free Agency somewhat changes the rules and goalposts, too many footy followers are looking too much into past results, picking experienced players in 24/25 age group that want to come to YOUR club means you can somewhat short circuit your development programme, many recruited draft picks simply NEVER make good footballers and clog the list for YEARS..... free agency is now available EVERY year and with Geelong Falcons and Geelong being a country town near surf and sand as well as being one of the best run clubs in AFL means the club will in future continue to appeal to certain players in the 24/25 age group that are already proven AFL players and are looking for a change, Geelong Footy Club has much APPEAL and will continue to do so in future..... GO CATS!

I would add to that list of items that might attract players to Geelong is the way that Geelong has treated players. It is known to be supportive of players on its list, and not obstructive to players who want to make a move. That must be a positive.

 

[evolutionbaby]

The direction of Free Agency somewhat changes the rules and goalposts, too many footy followers are looking too much into past results, picking experienced players in 24/25 age group that want to come to YOUR club means you can somewhat short circuit your development programme, many recruited draft picks simply NEVER make good footballers and clog the list for YEARS..... free agency is now available EVERY year and with Geelong Falcons and Geelong being a country town near surf and sand as well as being one of the best run clubs in AFL means the club will in future continue to appeal to certain players in the 24/25 age group that are already proven AFL players and are looking for a change, Geelong Footy Club has much APPEAL and will continue to do so in future..... GO CATS!

The essence of what you are saying is that in reality Free Agency is anti-equalisation. You are either a destination club or an exit club. The better clubs attract the better players. It's obvious that we are a destination club from this trade period. The challenge will be remain and maintain that.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

The essence of what you are saying is that in reality Free Agency is anti-equalisation. You are either a destination club or an exit club. The better clubs attract the better players. It's obvious that we are a destination club from this trade period. The challenge will be remain and maintain that.

The essence of what you are saying is that in reality Free Agency is anti-equalisation. You are either a destination club or an exit club. The better clubs attract the better players. It's obvious that we are a destination club from this trade period. The challenge will be remain and maintain that.

The draft is now spread amongst 18 clubs making it increasingly difficult to develop with any certainty a competitive playing list within accepted designated time frame. As previously mentioned draft picks early and/or late doesn't equate to on-field success with both Melbourne and Carlton being best examples but to recruit proven AFL players at 24/25 that want to play for YOUR club is huge windfall and cuts out RISK factor of unproven AFL players recruited to your club, not only that but these players have not yet reached the age of their full potential, so the upside is immense..... this is all largely due to the players themselves and the Players Assoc. for it is they who introduced FREE AGENCY. Geelong Footy Club is unique in this regard of being a Country town with nearby sand and surf, as well as being a well run club that looks after it's in-going and out-going players including past champions, not withstanding former Geelong Falcon players that had been recruited to other clubs including interstate clubs, for me this opens a totally unexpected window of opportunity for club that has gathered instant momentum with the inclusions of Dangerfield, S Selwood, Henderson and Smith wanting to play for OUR club....... I can see in time, the club may still ticker and alter their list accordingly but with the further on-going availability of players through Free Agency who may want to come to the Geelong Footy Club our future remains bright....... GO CATS!