Preview - Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions - Saturday @1:45pm | BigFooty

Preview Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions - Saturday @1:45pm

Discussion in 'Brisbane Lions' started by Dom PC, Jul 11, 2018.

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  1. Dom PC

    Dom PC Premiership Player

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    Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions – Saturday 14/07/18, 1:45pm at University of Tasmania Stadium (Haw @ $1.23 and Bris @ $4.25)

    Hawk.png




    Summary


    The Lions should go into this game with great confidence. Not only have we won two games on the trot, but as I am sure no one here has forgotten, we comfortably disposed of the Hawks in our previous meeting. The Hawks however will also be walking onto the field this Saturday with a huge amount of self-belief, with them having won four out of their last five games (including impressive wins against Port Adelaide and Adelaide). The game shapes up important for each team but for different reasons. A win for this Lions group would ensure for the first time in five years, the club is sitting higher on the ladder than 18th or 17th after round 17, which while small in the scheme of things, is another step in the right direct for our club. For the Hawks, who currently are sitting precariously at 8th on the ladder, they cannot afford to drop a game against such a lowly ranked team if they expect to play finals in 2018.


    Hawthorn vs Hawthorn the II?


    Comparing the above team’s stats with each other there are some remarkably similar trends showing (marks, uncontested positions and meters gained etc.). With such a senior Hawthorn figure coming to coach our team and then a year later their greatest on field general, is it surprising that our style of play appears to be remarkably similar to the Hawks? Probably not. There is nothing wrong with copying other team’s styles and structures, the key thing is making sure the team is getting positive results from it. While the wins column might seem a bit bare currently for the Lions, very few would argue with the style and overall direction Fagan is taking this team. For this weekend, perhaps the question is, can Brisbane out Hawthorn, Hawthorn?





    Beautiful Percentage!!!

    It’s been five years since our percentage has been this high at round 17. I think its fair to say it is our biggest indicator of the huge strides forward the team has taken over the last 18 months. While a win would be fantastic and continue to give positive reinforcement to our young group. I think provided it’s a close game and we can continue the positive trajectory of our percentage (i.e. a close loss) most fans will walk away from the game or switch off the TV/radio after the game with some more sprinkling of hope. So is there going to be a few more blow outs before we start pushing for the top 8? Very likely so, but hopefully it won’t be this week so I can continue to gawk over our relatively beautiful percentage!!!


    Hodge… Hawthorns “Dear Leader”

    So… it’s that time of the year again. It is our customary Tasmania game. It seems a shame even the lure of the Dear Leader playing on his old stomping ground against his beloved Hawks could not sway the suits at AFL house to allow the Lions another MCG game. But I digress, Hodge will be playing his second game against his old outfit and will be walking into that game with a great amount of confidence in his own form. Hopefully he can continue this vintage form for another week and show the Hawthorn fans that the Dear Leader is not dead, he’s just gone to a better place;)


    Last Time We Met

    With McCluggage, Hipwood, Beams Zorko and Cutler all were named amongst the best on that day. There is no reason why we can’t hope to give Hawthorn a repeat dosage on Saturday afternoon. However, there are a few reasons to be wary and I’ll give two. Two key players in that performance will be missing this weekend in Harris Andrews (**** J.Cameron) and Charlie Cameron. Both were arguably in our top 5 in that 56 point smashing, so they are key outs from the last game. Additionally, we perhaps were lucky to be leading at half time in that game, with the Hawks having 29 inside 50s to 16 at half time. With such a master coach in Alastair Clarkson and the benefit of hindsight (and the fact Andrews won’t be down back to steady the ship), we would be foolish to think we stand a chance if those numbers are repeated. With that said, we have managed strong first quarter performances over the last two weeks. So provided we can continue on with those type of starts (hopefully the boys don’t assume it will just happen), it could be a very entertaining game from the start to finish.



    A Few Key Matchups

    Stefan Martin vs Jonathon Ceglar

    This will be an important match up in the midfield battle. With the loss of Ben McEvoy (I hate that big boy nick name btw!), it is a possible edge the Lions can get on the day, meaning more first use for our young midfield. In saying that, Ceglar is a fair ruckman in his own right and has a decent set of hands and could kick a few up forward if given the chance. Without out that really tall key defender in Andrews, its something our defence will need to be wary of. But overall, if Martin can dominate around the ground, it will very much increase our chances of winning the midfield battle.



    Luke Breust vs Darcy Gardiner

    As I am sure most would be aware, Breust popped up and kicked 6 goals last weekend (along with 24 touches) so it will be important to quell his influence on Saturday. That’s why I believe (I could be wrong on this match up of course) it would be wise to put arguably our best defender (who is playing) on him. With Gardiner having a very good ability of playing on big or small forwards, I think he can match up pretty well with Breust. It's also worth mentioning that Gardiner had a big influence last weekend in our win with 27 touches himself and keeping Charlie Curnow to just 6 touches. So if he can have an influence like that this week on Bruest while getting big numbers himself, it would suggest the Lions would be in with a huge chance of winning.


    Eric Hipwood vs James Frawley

    When Eric plays well, the Lions seem to play well and get either close to winning or get the actual win. So from a Hawks perspective, allowing Eric to get 15 odd touches and kick 3 or 4 goals would seriously dent their chances of winning the game. So it might be wise to put their best defender on him for most of the game. Of course that might leave McStay open for a big game, but they can’t allow both off the chain and I’d argue Hipwood is the bigger game breaker.



    Final Word

    The midfield that applies the best pressure without the ball and the team that uses the football best going inside 50 will likely be the winner here. Both teams structurally and statically are very similar. One key stat worth noting is that the Hawks are averaging 3 more tackles inside 50 per game then us. If we can break even or better them there and keep it in their defensive 50, it will go a long way to keeping us in the game and perhaps even winning.


    Hopeful of a good game here, but sadly I'll say the Hawks by 17.
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2018
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  2. Dlions

    Dlions Premiership Player

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    If we can force them wide, slow down their play and force them to kick down the line like after quarter time in the last game.
    We will have a good chance!
    But I do think the Hawks will just win, but we will push them.
     
  3. jason pm

    jason pm Brownlow Medallist

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    Really big game for us, if we manage to snag a win it will breed even more confidence into the playing group that the game style Chris Fagan and the coaching group is embedding is the way to go.

    Belief and confidence in a game style need to experienced and doing it against a top 8 side at a venue where they very rarely lose could see us win more games on the run home than most expect.

    It would good to have a close win, Lions by 5.
     
  4. jackess

    jackess Hall of Famer

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    We were pretty terrible about Carlton in the first quarter and shouldn't have won it. Against Freo we came out firing. Hopefully playing away will get them to switch on from the first bounce and give us a chance.

    Hopefully if we don't win we can at least keep the margin to less than 4 goals for the entire game rather than being blown out of the water in the first or reducing the margin in the last.
     
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  5. Jivlain

    Jivlain Pollyanna's statistician

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    To be honest we were a bit of a mess at times against Carlton, but they never put themselves in a position to do much about it. Hawthorn and Fremantle were much better wins. Carlton we got the job done, which is an odd thing to say about a 65-point win to the reigning spooners but there ya go.

    ------

    Now, York Park is quite the fortress for Hawthorn. Hodgey's record there is 35-1-10. But he's already more successful at both the Gabba and Perth Stadium as a Lion than as a Hawk (2-0-8 vs 1-0-5 and 1-0-0 vs 0-0-0). If we do get up it'll add a third venue to the collection.
     
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  6. Sausages

    Sausages Club Legend

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    I'm gonna back us in to do another three-peat and win this week - Lions by 14 :D
     
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  7. WhiteLionFeva

    WhiteLionFeva Premium Gold

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    Great preview Dom PC . Agree with your prediction of a Hawks win but here's hoping. Will need another team effort. Can't overstate how important an away win against a side vying for the eight would be for our morale.
     
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  8. Tom14

    Tom14 All Australian

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    Nice preview, only disagreement I really have is I think Gardiner is a shoe-in to play on Gunston with walker on Roughhead. No one else can really match up on Gunston so I'd guess it will be someone like Robertson on Breust which could be a problem.

    I think we are a chance but I expect the Hawks to win by around 3 goals.
     
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  9. lioninthesand

    lioninthesand Premiership Player

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    Again, reading their preview and talking about our win as if it was a bleep or a one off, would love nothing more than to go down there and win again.

    Full of confidence and doesen't look like the weather will be too crazy, just cold.

    won't be as easy as last time but really, really, really would love to push them or even snatch a win.

    Big chance.
     
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  10. KissKiss

    KissKiss Premiership Player

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    Think this will be a tough game. Always hard to play down there but after two good wins I won't be overly worried if we lose.

    Agree NRobbo or Rich should go to Bruest. Absolutely key matchup as he has been in great form all year.
     
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  11. jackess

    jackess Hall of Famer

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    Breust barely touched it the last time we played. Whoever played on him then should do it again. IIRC NRobbo spent the most time but it switched around a bit.
     

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  12. werdna78

    werdna78 Team Captain

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    How does cold effect players vs heat?

    How challenging is it to play in?
     
  13. LongLion

    LongLion Club Legend

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    Possibility of wind will have more influence I'm thinking
     
  14. Harrys Minion

    Harrys Minion Rookie

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    Me likes rustling jimmies
    Me thinks the lions in good form.

    Me thinks lions could upset Hawforn.

    I would like this for lols and for keeping pesky Hawks away from top eight teams.

    Go Lions!
     
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  15. Nunez

    Nunez Norm Smith Medallist

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    Are you related to Dodongo?
     
  16. Harrys Minion

    Harrys Minion Rookie

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    I do not know a Dodongo, Mr Nunez.

    I'm sure if he is really cool and a little bit cheeky and is also a demon that it is possible that me and him be related.
     
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  17. Dlions

    Dlions Premiership Player

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    Me thinks you may be right.
     
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  18. WhiteLionFeva

    WhiteLionFeva Premium Gold

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    Off-spring. And with only one ball.
     
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  19. BrisLion

    BrisLion Rookie

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    It's between the ears imo.

    Green grass, four sticks at either end, both sides have to travel.

    No excuses, its mental.
     
  20. luthor

    luthor Brownlow Medallist

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    Excellent preview Dom PC.

    Had everything spot on, especially the similarity in stats.

    Then you had to ruin it all by tipping the Hawks;)

    They shall not pass.

    Lions by 32.
     
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  21. jackess

    jackess Hall of Famer

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    Lester might take Breust
     
  22. Thomas9

    Thomas9 ಠ_ಠ

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    Hawks won't lose at Launceston. Will be barracking for the Lions though!
     
  23. Cockliff38

    Cockliff38 Norm Smith Medallist

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    True, but familiarity in conditions (whether it's heat or cold) is a bonus.

    FWIW, and I have no scientific rationale to support this, I find running in winter tougher than summer.
     
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  24. Dlions

    Dlions Premiership Player

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    Why?
     
  25. patfullfankezz

    patfullfankezz BRISBANE LIONS

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    Just chucked $10 on the Lions to win.

    Pray for me my friends, pray for me.
     
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