Analysis How important is Tom Lynch to Richmond?

[Tigerish09]

As we digest season 2023, one of the biggest questions is how would a fit Tom Lynch have changed our fortunes. I've been perusing the AFL tables to try and assess what his impact might have looked like had he not been injured.
Tommy has been more durable than I first thought, he has played 216 out of a possible 287 games since his debut in 2011. With us, he has played 85 out of a total of 111 possible games so around 3 out of every possible 4 games, take this season out of the calculations and it's 91% with us. There have been times when he hasn't been fully fit but still played though. When he plays, Richmond win or draw 60% of the time, when he does not, it slips to 50%

	Did not play			Played
	Draw	Loss	Win	Draw	Loss	Win
2019					6	19
2020		1	1	1	4	14
2021		2	2	1	10	7
2022	1	2	1		7	12
2023		9	9	1	2	1
Totals	1	14	13	3	29	53

Lynch also contributes 2.38 goals a game and goal assists stand at around 0.53 goals per game. Directly he contributes approx 3 goals per game. This is significant, any player replacing him would have to kick 50 goals per season which is a big ask given the quality of player we have in the VFL.
I've attempted to deal with tangibles like actual goalkicking but there is a lot more that makes Tom Lynch valuable from a winning perspective. He draws the best defender and keeps them honest. This allows the 2nd and 3rd forward options a lesser opponent and therefore enabling us more goal output. There is also his contesting and bring the ball to ground thereby bringing the smaller forwards into the game, this is more difficult to quantify but could easily be an extra couple of goals per game. All up he's probably worth an extra 4 to 6 goals on average. In a tight competition like we've seen this season, it means the difference between finishing 12th and finishing in the top 4. Assuming his replacement still contributes I'd estimate Lynch's net difference to be at least 3 goals better than anyone else, so yes, he plays this year and we play finals easily. Interestingly another stat that came out of my analysis is that if Lynch kicks 3 or more goals a game, Richmond will win 77% of their games, even if they do lose they will not lose by much, so he is somewhat a barometer for the team.
Finally I couldn't let this go without measuring umpire treatment between the 2 teams he has played for. At Gold Coast, Frees for were 148 for and 155 against, at Richmond no surprises 99 for and 119 against.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

He was our most important this year.
Even more important than Dusty.
Sadly we found out the hard way what a lynchless fwd line looks Ike.

 

[Truetiger]

Very important, prime example in two games I can think of both vs Melbourne we would have won if he had of played. Plus other games during the season. We need an injury free Lynch 2024.

 

[Moonatic77]

Extremely important. As posters above me have said we would have won a couple more for sure with him in all year. The difference between making the 8 and not. Going forward, without a like for like Riewoldt replacement, he's even more important.

 

[STRUGGLETOWN EST1885]

With Lynchy we would have won another 4-5 games easily. He creates as many goals as he kicks.That would have had us around 3rd to 5th on the ladder coming into this final round. He is most certainly our Barometer along with Dusty. Fingers crossed 2024 is a good year fitness wise for both of them.

 

[Wavvey]

I’d argue he’s been the most important bloke in our team since he first stepped into it. How many games have we played without him that we’ve looked completely useless?

 

[BF Tiger]

With Tom Lynch in the side...

Definite wins
Injured during the round 4 game v Bulldogs - 5 point loss
1 point loss to Essendon

Maybe Win
Gold Coast was a four goal loss, but we had no structure going forward whatsoever.
Port Adelaide - 10 point loss. Port were flying. Margin blew out early. Had kicked 3.10 to half-time.
Maybe one of the Melbourne games he could have swayed our way.

Minimum three extra wins and hello finals.

 

[Groupie_]

pies dont even have a key forward , we have big sexy to come back and our list is still better than theirs.

pies were 17th in 2021 then a prelim in 22 and first all year in 23

we could bounce back next year !!!

but realistically we wont cos we dont have umpies like them

 

[Dr Tigris]

Lynch is what we structure our forward line around. Without him our forward entries have to be very exact and smart - unlikely at Richmond.

That means our forward entries are more likely to be hit the hot spot (intercept mark) or try for a more difficult entry (lower %), or hit the grass.

This all means our connection is off, unless our talls can fill the hole (didn't consistently happen), or our smalls could cause chaos (see talls). Dusty does Dusty and Shai does Shai, but they are not a forward line structure.

Without a properly structured forward line (sorry Jack, then game did go past you) we basically couldn't play a winning game style.

that to me is the big thing - not missed goals by Tom. he makes our system function, and without him our system broke down.

So our most important player by far. Cause he drives our structure.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Lynch is what we structure our forward line around. Without him our forward entries have to be very exact and smart - unlikely at Richmond.

That means our forward entries are more likely to be hit the hot spot (intercept mark) or try for a more difficult entry (lower %), or hit the grass.

This all means our connection is off, unless our talls can fill the hole (didn't consistently happen), or our smalls could cause chaos (see talls). Dusty does Dusty and Shai does Shai, but they are not a forward line structure.

Without a properly structured forward line (sorry Jack, then game did go past you) we basically couldn't play a winning game style.

that to me is the big thing - not missed goals by Tom. he makes our system function, and without him our system broke down.

So our most important player by far. Cause he drives our structure.

This is spot on. We develop shots on goal from better positions when Lynch plays, but it also seems to have an effect on opposition conversion rates when Lynch plays, as you will see here.....


In total last 2 years, 2022-2023:

With Lynch(22 games) Richmond scored 321 goals 243 behinds. 57% conversion. 25 scoring shots per game. 14.6 goals per game.

Without Lynch(23 games) Richmond scored 270 goals 283 behinds(counted Suns game 2022 as w/o Lynch as he was off injured early minutes) 49% conversion. 24 scoring shots per game. 11.7 goals per game

So we can see in the games Lynch has played we get 1 more scoring shot per game but 2.9 extra goals. Way more efficient.



This is before you start looking at the effect on opposition scoring likely from conceding turnovers in or forward half in worse positions.


In total in 2022-23:

With Lynch(22 games) we conceded to the opposition 247 goals 281 behinds. 47% conversion. 24 scoring shots per game. 11.2 goals per game.

Without Lynch(23 games) we conceded 297 goals 230 behinds. 56% conversion. 23 scoring shots per game. 12.9 goals per game.


You can see a huge difference in conversion rates of both Richmond and their opposition, both heavily in Richmond's favour, in the games where Lynch plays.

Games Lynch played Richmond on average scored 14.6 goals 11 behinds.

Games Lynch did not play on average Richmond scored 11.7 goals 12.3 behinds.

Games Lynch played on average Richmond conceded 11.2 goals 12.8 behinds.

Games Lynch did not play on average Richmond conceded 12.9 goals 10 behinds.

 

[Do the Dew]

This is spot on. We develop shots on goal from better positions when Lynch plays, but it also seems to have an effect on opposition conversion rates when Lynch plays, as you will see here.....


In total last 2 years, 2022-2023:

With Lynch(22 games) Richmond scored 321 goals 243 behinds. 57% conversion. 25 scoring shots per game. 14.6 goals per game.

Without Lynch(23 games) Richmond scored 270 goals 283 behinds(counted Suns game 2022 as w/o Lynch as he was off injured early minutes) 49% conversion. 24 scoring shots per game. 11.7 goals per game

So we can see in the games Lynch has played we get 1 more scoring shot per game but 2.9 extra goals. Way more efficient.



This is before you start looking at the effect on opposition scoring likely from conceding turnovers in or forward half in worse positions.


In total in 2022-23:

With Lynch(22 games) we conceded to the opposition 247 goals 281 behinds. 47% conversion. 24 scoring shots per game. 11.2 goals per game.

Without Lynch(23 games) we conceded 297 goals 230 behinds. 56% conversion. 23 scoring shots per game. 12.9 goals per game.


You can see a huge difference in conversion rates of both Richmond and their opposition, both heavily in Richmond's favour, in the games where Lynch plays.

Games Lynch played Richmond on average scored 14.6 goals 11 behinds.

Games Lynch did not play on average Richmond scored 11.7 goals 12.3 behinds.

Games Lynch played on average Richmond conceded 11.2 goals 12.8 behinds.

Games Lynch did not play on average Richmond conceded 12.9 goals 10 behinds.

It's also Lynch's ability to be the bail-out kick down the line. He's the best contested mark in the comp and actually allows us to play slowly and bomb it in. Rather when we just had Jack and he's being bear-hugged by 3 defenders, if we go slow and long the ball gets intercepted and rebounds.

Feels sad referring to Jack in the past tense

 

[1980GFVideo]

Didnt know how to go forward without him.

How many forward entries did we piss down the toilet just because of not having a reliable target.

 

[jc12]

So important that we recruit a big fwd of some kind in the draft or trade

 

[SleepingGiant]

Vital. Unfortunately he will be past his prime next year and our core is not in contention anymore. The best we can do is draft an elite KPF and give them 2 years of Lynch mentoring. He prevents us from becoming a basket case like North.

 

[Dr Tigris]

This is spot on. We develop shots on goal from better positions when Lynch plays, but it also seems to have an effect on opposition conversion rates when Lynch plays, as you will see here.....


In total last 2 years, 2022-2023:

With Lynch(22 games) Richmond scored 321 goals 243 behinds. 57% conversion. 25 scoring shots per game. 14.6 goals per game.

Without Lynch(23 games) Richmond scored 270 goals 283 behinds(counted Suns game 2022 as w/o Lynch as he was off injured early minutes) 49% conversion. 24 scoring shots per game. 11.7 goals per game

So we can see in the games Lynch has played we get 1 more scoring shot per game but 2.9 extra goals. Way more efficient.



This is before you start looking at the effect on opposition scoring likely from conceding turnovers in or forward half in worse positions.


In total in 2022-23:

With Lynch(22 games) we conceded to the opposition 247 goals 281 behinds. 47% conversion. 24 scoring shots per game. 11.2 goals per game.

Without Lynch(23 games) we conceded 297 goals 230 behinds. 56% conversion. 23 scoring shots per game. 12.9 goals per game.


You can see a huge difference in conversion rates of both Richmond and their opposition, both heavily in Richmond's favour, in the games where Lynch plays.

Games Lynch played Richmond on average scored 14.6 goals 11 behinds.

Games Lynch did not play on average Richmond scored 11.7 goals 12.3 behinds.

Games Lynch played on average Richmond conceded 11.2 goals 12.8 behinds.

Games Lynch did not play on average Richmond conceded 12.9 goals 10 behinds.

Love the numbers. That is so stark that you can't deny Lynch changes how we play. That is someone who is more important to the team than just his stats.

 

[smasha]

We’d be close to winning a flag this year with him in.

Great players lift those around them.

The CFL robbed us of one last year.

 

[Bojangles17]

The sad part is I reckon big Tom was career best form in last 12m , he was bloody unstoppable at times last year. Sincerely hope he can return to full fitness , we’re a better side with lynch out there

 

[Sir_Loin]

He's 32 next year. The injury he's coming back from is pretty significant. I'm not sure his best footy is ahead of him. If we get another 2 seasons out of him we will be lucky.

The cupboard is pretty bare, I think we're going to be wringing every last game out of him.

 

[Bojangles17]

He's 32 next year. The injury he's coming back from is pretty significant. I'm not sure his best footy is ahead of him. If we get another 2 seasons out of him we will be lucky.

The cupboard is pretty bare, I think we're going to be wringing every last game out of him.

We need him as cover while developing a couple of key forwards

 

[Football Tragic]

He was the only player that we could not cover....even remotely. The drop from Lynch to our next best tall forward is significant. Jack only agreed to play on one more season because he thought there was a remote possibility with the inclusion of Taranto and Hopper, that we could challenge again. That was quickly proven wrong and Jack had to play the season out as our number one forward.

Lynch provides so much more than the goals he kicks. He is an intimidating presence that you must account for. He sets up others by dragging defenders. He brings the ball to ground for the smalls. He is a link up player on the wing. His value can not be understated or underestimated. When he went down, so did all our chances of winning a flag. We just couldn't cover the loss.

It really just highlights the importance of finding a key forward. I don't know if the recruiters and list manager expect us to just go out and trade for one or miraculously draft one in with a later pick but we have been desperate for one for years. It wasn't like none of us didn't see this coming years earlier.

I think the only was we could bring in a quality tall now is if we lose a valuable player and gain an early pick for them. Otherwise, it will take a couple of seasons of pain to get the draft pick we need and even then, we have to hope that there is a quality tall available. Even then, by the time they are matured enough to threaten, our other mid-age to older players will be too old to support them.

Tommy has helped us win two flags. I'd like to see him challenge for another but it will take Bauer, Ryan or Balta making an astronomical improvement to do so, I'm afraid.

 

[Feraligatr]

The thing that worries me is that we have to rely on just Lynch to make us viable. It shows we definitely need some more depth, especially in the forward line.

The fact that we need Lynch to be fit to be competitive doesn't sit well with me.

 

[Chat Pile]

Reckon we make finals if he plays.

 

[SunshineBoy]

This is spot on. We develop shots on goal from better positions when Lynch plays, but it also seems to have an effect on opposition conversion rates when Lynch plays, as you will see here.....


In total last 2 years, 2022-2023:

With Lynch(22 games) Richmond scored 321 goals 243 behinds. 57% conversion. 25 scoring shots per game. 14.6 goals per game.

Without Lynch(23 games) Richmond scored 270 goals 283 behinds(counted Suns game 2022 as w/o Lynch as he was off injured early minutes) 49% conversion. 24 scoring shots per game. 11.7 goals per game

So we can see in the games Lynch has played we get 1 more scoring shot per game but 2.9 extra goals. Way more efficient.



This is before you start looking at the effect on opposition scoring likely from conceding turnovers in or forward half in worse positions.


In total in 2022-23:

With Lynch(22 games) we conceded to the opposition 247 goals 281 behinds. 47% conversion. 24 scoring shots per game. 11.2 goals per game.

Without Lynch(23 games) we conceded 297 goals 230 behinds. 56% conversion. 23 scoring shots per game. 12.9 goals per game.


You can see a huge difference in conversion rates of both Richmond and their opposition, both heavily in Richmond's favour, in the games where Lynch plays.

Games Lynch played Richmond on average scored 14.6 goals 11 behinds.

Games Lynch did not play on average Richmond scored 11.7 goals 12.3 behinds.

Games Lynch played on average Richmond conceded 11.2 goals 12.8 behinds.

Games Lynch did not play on average Richmond conceded 12.9 goals 10 behinds.

Stats stats and more bloody stats

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Stats stats and more bloody stats

Probably just a coincidence SB.