I remain bullish about our chances. Our best footy, which we've shown in blockbuster wins over fellow contenders Collingwood, Hawthorn, Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs, is a good as any team in the comp. Clearly our midfield doesn't match up well against Brisbane's or GWS's, midfield, but I don't think the disparity between them and us is so significant that we'd have no hope against them in September. It's a relatively even year. I wouldn't have us favourites, but so long as we grind out a top four finish, we're in with a strong chance.
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Prediction How Will The Cats Fare in 2025?
- Thread starter The rabbi
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I maintain the view that we are some chance once September rolls around. But as our losses this year have shown, we're not going to get all that far against the better teams if:
(1) we don't have something close to our best 23 available, right across the three lines;
(2) our really important players don't make much of a contribution; and
(3) we don't play our most impactful players in their best positions for most of the time.
The competition is too close at the pointy end for us to stay in the contest if we don't have these factors generally working in our favour. But our best is still good enough if we can bring it and sustain it.
(1) we don't have something close to our best 23 available, right across the three lines;
(2) our really important players don't make much of a contribution; and
(3) we don't play our most impactful players in their best positions for most of the time.
The competition is too close at the pointy end for us to stay in the contest if we don't have these factors generally working in our favour. But our best is still good enough if we can bring it and sustain it.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Yes absolutely so long as we avoid Brisbane.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
I agree.
And if we get the pies in a QF (who we have already beaten this year) and then a team like suns/hawks/dogs in a prelim we absolutely can do it. We just have to avoid Brisbane til GF day and hopefully they are knocked out by then.
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We're still 4th after all that. Destiny remains in our hands. Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Footscray and Fremantle still have tough games remaining against the top 3. GWS are probably our biggest threat for 4th. Let's hope Gold Coast or Footscray knock them off.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Gws could run to 4th but they also could end up 9th if they lose to the dogs and Suns and freo keep winning (the freo vs port game will be crucial).
Suns are probably our biggest threat for 4th with the game in hand and good %.
But if they lose to Adelaide and Brisbane then they can't get past us (assuming we win 5 of 6 as we should) except on % (which is why it's crucial we get some big margins when we play the bottom sides the next few weeks).
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Can we win the flag? Well yes, but we'd have to have the luck on our side, and by that, i mean finish 4th, have a crack at the Pies in a Qualifying final, win that, week off then get an Adelaide, Hawthorn, Gold Coast or Fremantle at the MCG in a prelim.
Probably our best bet to get to GF day.
Probably our best bet to get to GF day.
There's no better time to beat a streak than a prelim though. 2013 ring a bell? Brisbane had a shocking streak against us in Victoria until the 2024 prelim (and lost their last two finals against us). Richmond did before the 2017 QF. Bulldogs did in Geelong until 2023. We hadn't won a final in Adelaide until last year. It might seem unlikely, but streaks can get broken.
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I think we should still finish top 4 but I don't see us as a serious contender. Midfield issues coming home to roost. Coaching can cover for it to a point but against the serious midfields in a contested game, it gets horribly exposed.
dazbroncos
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We still control our own destiny so its on us currently.
That changes if we drop any more games - which will be getting harder as they will wall want to knock us off.
The draw is only as easy as the oppo want to make it - and if we give them a sniff we'll be in trouble as we've seen with the Lions and GWS. And the scout coaches from every team will have seen this and want to add wrinkles of it to their games V us.
We have some players with niggles and some best 23-28 guys OOC that will want to prove some things.
They need chances to do it - but not sure if they'll get them with Martin and O Henry seemingly undroppable at the moment.
WE cant have players having bad games - bad 1/4s sure... but not like Baz and Holmes last night.
We have the players with the talent to do it.... we need some luck and the hunger to be at 100%
GO Catters
That changes if we drop any more games - which will be getting harder as they will wall want to knock us off.
The draw is only as easy as the oppo want to make it - and if we give them a sniff we'll be in trouble as we've seen with the Lions and GWS. And the scout coaches from every team will have seen this and want to add wrinkles of it to their games V us.
We have some players with niggles and some best 23-28 guys OOC that will want to prove some things.
They need chances to do it - but not sure if they'll get them with Martin and O Henry seemingly undroppable at the moment.
WE cant have players having bad games - bad 1/4s sure... but not like Baz and Holmes last night.
We have the players with the talent to do it.... we need some luck and the hunger to be at 100%
GO Catters
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Even at out best I don't see us winning it, the midfield is not up to it.
It would have to rely on us playing Collingwood and Crows in the QF and PF and would then need another team(s) to knock out Lions and GWS.
And then we'd have to beat that team in the GF.
Seems too far fetched.
It would have to rely on us playing Collingwood and Crows in the QF and PF and would then need another team(s) to knock out Lions and GWS.
And then we'd have to beat that team in the GF.
Seems too far fetched.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
It's not really. Mathematically 4th is reasonably likely now (pies locked in at 1st) and we have a good record vs pies. And we beat Adelaide on the road last time. So us getting to the GF is eminently do able.
Gws as good as they are probably won't get top 4 (they are not even certain to make the 8) and it's hard to get to the GF the long way.
The only bit that's far fetched is brisbane getting knocked out before the GF i struggle to see them losing a home PF if they get one (i can see them losing to the pies on the road but not at home). But we could get lucky...brisbane got very very lucky with Sydney last year. The league is that crap now that average teams can get to GFs so there's no reason we can't and you can always be a chance to win a Bradbury.
I don't see how anyone can with a straight face say that our midfield is incapable of winning the premiership. We were in front of Brisbane with two minutes to go in last year's Preliminary Final with an inferior midfield to this current one (we had no Smith last year and Holmes didn't play a full game). How you gonna say we "can't" be a serious contender with a better group that the one that came close to winning in 2024?
I don't disagree that the Lions and GWS have better midfields than us, but come on, let's not pretend we've got no hope.
I don't disagree that the Lions and GWS have better midfields than us, but come on, let's not pretend we've got no hope.
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That was last year though, not this year.
On recent form, 2 of our last 3 games against contenders we lost and was not even close.
What exactly will change in 6 weeks time that will make us capable of winning it?
It is a possibility but unlikely. I think there are just teams that are better than us, and playing better footy.
It's a very high chance we'd have to beat Lions at some point to win the flag which I don't see us doing.
Our Bradbury chance was last year and we blew it.
catempire
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Therein lays the problem.
I don't entirely disagree with you. After all, it's certainly possible to suggest that our midfield is better than it was last year, for example.
But it's also entirely reasonable to suggest that Brisbane's midfield has improved as well. It certainly appears that none of the usual suspects have dropped off. And McSuity is playing out of his skin at the moment, alongside them cloning another Ashcroft to add to the mix. It's actually quite plausible to believe that both midfield groups have improved, I believe.
So last year's PF does suggest some hope, for sure. But we would need a lot to go right to make up the gap in depth between the two midfield groups for mine. Theirs is seriously stacked (with an incredibly high 'floor') and ours is patchy (with a pretty questionable baseline when we're not up and going).
We're not without any chance, of course. But it could take a masterclass from our coach and elite conversion from our chances to give us a real shot at knocking off midfields as stacked as that of the Lions on the big stage this year.
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Why only look at recent form though? If we did that in mid 2024 we would have waved the white flag at round 16. You look at the whole season for a reason. We struggle against two teams that will make finals, but we've done well against the rest. All teams that qualify it will be a similar story or worse. Collingwood will get to finals without beating a team that starts with G! The Giants struggle against the Bulldogs, Dockers, Hawks and Crows. The Dogs are 1-7 against top 9 teams. The Hawks have beaten one top 9 team away from Tassie. Brisbane are Collingwood's bunnies. And so on.
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I did the last 3 weeks because that's our current form, we aren't playing like we were a month ago. Even the Tigers game outside of 1 quarter was pretty ordinary. I think we're in a slump starting with the Captain.
Pies have been consistently good all year, could've beat us if Crisp kicked strait. (though we do have a good record in September on them)
Lions have our number as does the Giants.
Doggies, Lions and GWS all play with speed on the ball vs us and that is our weakness. If Dogs have Darcy/Juh when they played us (which they didn't last time) I think they beat us.
I think our midfield is not as talented as the other contenders and on top of that, we will lack depth this year as Kolo, TB, Duncan, Guth probably won't play.
I think our defense is leaky this year, has had little continually. Everyone in the back 6 bar Z Guth has missed footy.
I just don't think it's our year, teams are better than us and playing better footy. I hope I'm wrong but I don't see it.
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ESPN
Stocks down: To anyone thinking Geelong's spot in the top eight or top four is under threat with that loss, think again. That was easily the toughest match in the Cats' run home and with matches against St Kilda, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Sydney, and Richmond to come, they're more than locked in and have destiny in their own hands. Fair old draw, that.
Geelong
Stocks up: Gryan Miers is one of the most damaging players in the game because of his ability to hit targets inside 50 and pull off some of the most creative of kicks, and those traits were on full display against the Giants. Miers had 16 kicks from his 22 disposals, as well as a team-high seven score involvements, and went at 81% disposal efficiency to end the afternoon as the highest-rated Geelong player. Shout out to Shannon Neale, too, who cashed in with five goals from just seven disposals.Stocks down: To anyone thinking Geelong's spot in the top eight or top four is under threat with that loss, think again. That was easily the toughest match in the Cats' run home and with matches against St Kilda, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Sydney, and Richmond to come, they're more than locked in and have destiny in their own hands. Fair old draw, that.
I'd love to hear the Debbie downers read the 2nd paragraph and try to catastrophise the season like they've been doing the past few weeks.
Are we in that 3rd-9th group where not much separates teams? Absolutely.
Are we in a disastrous position where we might as well give up interest in the season? Absolutely not.
Agree, that's one reason I posted this. The other is Kitty and Daz's myboys in Miers and Big Shazza.
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