Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[4quarter_cat]

So I took the time to do a ladder predictor. Of course it means diddly squad and heavily affected by the rose coloured filter on my monitor, but I had us losing to Adelaide in Adelaide and Brissy in Brissy. Here is how it ended up looking.

 

[D BRIDGE]

So I took the time to do a ladder predictor. Of course it means diddly squad and heavily affected by the rose coloured filter on my monitor, but I had us losing to Adelaide in Adelaide and Brissy in Brissy. Here is how it ended up looking.
View attachment 1909995

I’m a glass half empty type.

You’re a glass overflowing type.

Hope you are on the money though.

 

[4quarter_cat]

I’m a glass half empty type.

You’re a glass overflowing type.

Hope you are on the money though.

I'm suffering from, I'm jumping out of my skin for it all to kick off and I have to channel that energy into something.
I've always found I become a dreamer when I'm in that mood.

At least it is more fun than getting down about it. That comes in August when I realise I've just been wrong all season

 

[you pick one]

Just won't be the same without the obligatory preseason embarrassment at the hands of the Suns, though. Recent results there certainly proved illuminating (in the inverse sense) about the relative strength of the two teams for the season ahead.

2020 Marsh Community Series

Suns 122
Cats 54

Suns finished 14th, Cats played in the GF.

2022 AAMI Community Series

Suns 95
Cats 72

Suns finished 12th, Cats won the GF.

For myself, then, a few positive signs from returning and emerging players (along with a clean bill of health when the final siren goes) is all I'm really looking for in any preseason hit-out from year to year.

Not wrapped in playing them in Darwin in the real thing this year a win there would be a bonus for the Cats.

 

[goyoucatters]

Not wrapped in playing them in Darwin in the real thing this year a win there would be a bonus for the Cats.

I agree. I see it as a problem game. They have been good up there over the years and we are going in with little experience of the conditions. Another 'shock loss' looms...

 

[moond0g]

So I took the time to do a ladder predictor. Of course it means diddly squad and heavily affected by the rose coloured filter on my monitor, but I had us losing to Adelaide in Adelaide and Brissy in Brissy. Here is how it ended up looking.
View attachment 1909995

Very optimistic. What are the two games you see us dropping out of interest?

 

[Mr Meow]

I'm suffering from, I'm jumping out of my skin for it all to kick off and I have to channel that energy into something.
I've always found I become a dreamer when I'm in that mood.

At least it is more fun than getting down about it. That comes in August when I realise I've just been wrong all season

Completely agreed.

This team have been thereabouts most years in the last 35 seasons, even if in a lot of them we've been well aware of the sides flaws.

In Scott's tenure we've had two great teams and a bunch of okay to goodish ones. But the standard of the elite teams really isn't that high anymore. A great injury run, some luck and form at the right time can throw any number of sides into contention in a given season.

Last year absolutely everything went wrong. It was a disaster. And it didn't help being unfit. Despite a trainwreck we were thereabouts. Two sides in 5th to 8th were 5 goals up in a prelim and got within a kick of the GF respectively. About 10 sides will rightly think they have a shot with 6 weeks (including finals) to go and why wouldn't we be one of them?

 

[4quarter_cat]

Very optimistic. What are the two games you see us dropping out of interest?

Adelaide in Adelaide in Round 2, and Brissy in Brissy in Round 6, then we just go on a massive run. If the season did play out the way I'd predicted for us my biggest worry heading into finals would be that we hadn't really been tested much in the back half of the season.

I'm aware it's optimistic, I did take a what would we be hoping to achieve in each game approach, and we do have a pretty soft draw IMO.

I find it is interesting less because of where Geelong ends up, but because it reveals generally speaking where other teams will end up if my biases play out. Despite all their chest beating I just don't see space for Saints, Dogs, Port, or Melbourne to make the 8. Those will be 4 clubs who are all aiming to make the 8 or even top 4.

 

[thecatattack]

Carlton? I laugh in the face of Carlton. They'll go alright but won't make it.

Their form post-round 14 was unreal. They went up 5 goals in the PF on the enemy turf. If they didn't flounder between rounds 5 and 13 and went 1-8, with at least 4 games they should've won, they would've been a top 4 team and probably 3rd at worst. If it resulted in a home QF, they would've knocked off whoever and had a home PF, which they probably win, too.

They have the list and absolute firepower around the field. If they're healthy and put it together like they did at the end of last season they're absolutely flag contenders.

 

[4quarter_cat]

Their form post-round 14 was unreal. They went up 5 goals in the PF on the enemy turf. If they didn't flounder between rounds 5 and 13 and went 1-8, with at least 4 games they should've won, they would've been a top 4 team and probably 3rd at worst. If it resulted in a home QF, they would've knocked off whoever and had a home PF, which they probably win, too.

They have the list and absolute firepower around the field. If they're healthy and put it together like they did at the end of last season they're absolutely flag contenders.

Fair enough. I'm entitled to my opinion even if I am wrong. I don't question their talent. It's whats between the ears that i think excludes them. And that form slump and dropping games they should win is exactly what teams that don't go all the way do. Exhibit A, Brisbane Bears.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

I was listening to Buckley on SEN the other day talk about the evolution of game-plans and the short version is all 4 of our flags started with a strong intercept game in our defense. So getting back to being really good at that would be a great start for us climbing the ladder again.

We need SDK to get back into some good form again and hopefully an injury free Jack Henry

38

Jack Henry

Age

25

Ht

192cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

142.6

2star

D

8.6

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

3star

MG

142.6

3star

D

9.6

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

4star

to sure up our defense.

And for our midfield, I'm hoping someone besides Guthrie/Danger start stepping up and picking up the slack. Don't care who it is but someone needs to take the next step.

As for the forward-line if everyone is fit and firing it should trouble just about any team, especially if Stengle/Cameron/Hawkins are back to 22 form. Then we have Rohan/Close/Miers/Ollie on top.

 

[Mr Meow]

I was listening to Buckley on SEN the other day talk about the evolution of game-plans and the short version is all 4 of our flags started with a strong intercept game in our defense. So getting back to being really good at that would be a great start for us climbing the ladder again.

We need SDK to get back into some good form again and hopefully an injury free Jack Henry to sure up our defense.

And for our midfield, I'm hoping someone besides Guthrie/Danger start stepping up and picking up the slack. Don't care who it is but someone needs to take the next step.

As for the forward-line if everyone is fit and firing it should trouble just about any team, especially if Stengle/Cameron/Hawkins are back to 22 form. Then we have Rohan/Close/Miers/Ollie on top.

Spot on. Scores from turnover differential got flipped on its head in 2023 after it was stellar in 2022 especially.

It's hard to find stats that actually prove this (I've tried) but our pressure in the forward half of the ground seemed poor. Couple this with sloppy ball use and any kind of error seemed to get punished with an easy opposition slingshot. With Rohan in everybody lifted in this area. When he was out, players slept on it.

From the defensive intercepting side of things got better once J.Henry settled a few games after his return, but then his injury was another road block. Tuohy's decline and Kolo's poor year didn't help. SDK lost confidence. Bews wasn't the same player. I'm hopeful Duncan shifting back can replace Tuohy, Kolo and SDK bounce back and Mullin/O'Connor can perform the Bews role. Defences do stabilise when things ahead of them are steady so that would be a start.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

So I took the time to do a ladder predictor. Of course it means diddly squad and heavily affected by the rose coloured filter on my monitor, but I had us losing to Adelaide in Adelaide and Brissy in Brissy. Here is how it ended up looking.
View attachment 1909995

I personally don't see us losing a game

 

[CHAWKTS]

So I took the time to do a ladder predictor. Of course it means diddly squad and heavily affected by the rose coloured filter on my monitor, but I had us losing to Adelaide in Adelaide and Brissy in Brissy. Here is how it ended up looking.
View attachment 1909995

Can’t believe you had us losing 2 - did you factor in resting the full squad in last 2 rounds to rest for finals?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Jokes aside I found squiggle interesting. If anyone knows anything about their algorithm then please chime in.

Running the whole season auto-tip about 30 times we land in a really tight band of 6-8th. Once it has its top 4 and once 11th.

These kinds of algorithms I find are not much more reliable than personal judgement at a match to match level but I wonder if taken over a whole season where outcomes revert to mean a bit more that squiggle might be more accurate?

 

[moond0g]

Jokes aside I found squiggle interesting. If anyone knows anything about their algorithm then please chime in.

Running the whole season auto-tip about 30 times we land in a really tight band of 6-8th. Once it has its top 4 and once 11th.

These kinds of algorithms I find are not much more reliable than personal judgement at a match to match level but I wonder if taken over a whole season where outcomes revert to mean a bit more that squiggle might be more accurate?

They do a summary post season. It seemed the very best last year were the journos rather than the models, then it's pretty even scattering.

Rate My Ladder - Squiggle

How accurate was your ladder prediction? Drag teams to where you tipped them to finish, then check your score.

squiggle.com.au

I think the caveat there is that it depends how you measure 'best'. For example, I think they punish big discrepancies from actual vs predicted ladder position. Which means that a couple of teams severely over or under achieving probably influence results. That's to say, the models are probably less likely to have successfully predicted Geelong would drop out of the 8 when all the data would suggest we were a vey good side coming into the season, whereas there would certainly be a handful of journos predicting the 'cliff', which turned out to be somewhat true last year. Similar for GWS moving up so many spots.

 

[4quarter_cat]

Can’t believe you had us losing 2 - did you factor in resting the full squad in last 2 rounds to rest for finals?

No I didn't but from memory both of our opponents were out of contention by then so i figured that kind of thing would be all levelled out.

 

[Vdubs]

Losing Cam Guthrie is not a great start to our campaign. The way he went down, if we see him anywhere near it before 12 weeks from today, I’ll be happy.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

They do a summary post season. It seemed the very best last year were the journos rather than the models, then it's pretty even scattering.

Rate My Ladder - Squiggle

How accurate was your ladder prediction? Drag teams to where you tipped them to finish, then check your score.

squiggle.com.au

I think the caveat there is that it depends how you measure 'best'. For example, I think they punish big discrepancies from actual vs predicted ladder position. Which means that a couple of teams severely over or under achieving probably influence results. That's to say, the models are probably less likely to have successfully predicted Geelong would drop out of the 8 when all the data would suggest we were a vey good side coming into the season, whereas there would certainly be a handful of journos predicting the 'cliff', which turned out to be somewhat true last year. Similar for GWS moving up so many spots.

That certainly makes sense, thanks for the insight. I'll take a look at the results

 

[Partridge]

Losing Cam Guthrie is not a great start to our campaign. The way he went down, if we see him anywhere near it before 12 weeks from today, I’ll be happy.

What was it he actually did?

 

[catempire]

Very surprised at the pessimism here. An even run with injuries and we make the 8 in a canter. This team is not that different to the one that won a flag 18 months ago but was cruelled by injuries last year.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Very surprised at the pessimism here. An even run with injuries and we make the 8 in a canter. This team is not that different to the one that won a flag 18 months ago but was cruelled by injuries last year.

No no, not nearly negative enough.

Haven't you heard that Patrick Dangerfield is old?

To their credit there are some in the media with their heads screwed on

 

[Catastrophe!]

Losing Cam Guthrie is not a great start to our campaign. The way he went down, if we see him anywhere near it before 12 weeks from today, I’ll be happy.

Lol, it was a quad mate, and he walked off the field - so I'd be surprised if he's not back by Round 3-6. 3 months is nuts.

 

[Vivy]

Lol, it was a quad mate, and he walked off the field - so I'd be surprised if he's not back by Round 3-6. 3 months is nuts.

The walking off part is good. He did look like he got shot when he went down though.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Lol, it was a quad mate, and he walked off the field - so I'd be surprised if he's not back by Round 3-6. 3 months is nuts.

He did go down like he was shot though. They might be cautious