Strategy Hypothetical Pick Trade Thread

[PMBangers]

For discussion around possible Pick swaps heading into, or during, the draft

What is/ isn't fair, which picks are going to be the hottest property, the players that'll be in every clubs sights on night 2, etc.!

 

[TDS7]

If Wardlaw is gone at our pick, I reckon we might be on the phone to see if you’d like our pick 5.

The only issue is working with Dodo, who would want our either Future first straight up or a smorgasbord of 2nd/3rd rounders + 6 to move up.

 

[doug85]

The only issue is working with Dodo, who would want our either Future first straight up or a smorgasbord of 2nd/3rd rounders + 6 to move up.

I doubt it. The Dodoro meme is a bit out of control. It’ll be an F2 with maybe some junk picks swapped in later rounds as we need points.

 

[sherrif]

With only ~50 picks expected to be used, picks in the 40s are fairly low value except to clubs with points considerations. 40 and 43 might have value for Brisbane in exchange for 34, but I think that's as high as North could get.

Essendon need points if a bid comes in for Alwyn Davey before their pick 22 currently. As the bid will be at least the second one behind Ashcroft its likely pick 40 will be 36 or 37 and pick 43 more like 39 or 40. At the same time pick 22 is likely to be taken at pick 25 at the time its taken in the draft and pick 23 at the time of points matching. (pick 24 if Fletcher is bid before Davey). I think trading in pick 40 and 43 would get Essendon Davey with a small amount of points left over for a later bid for Munkara.

 

[eth-dog]

Essendon need points if a bid comes in for Alwyn Davey before their pick 22 currently. As the bid will be at least the second one behind Ashcroft its likely pick 40 will be 36 or 37 and pick 43 more like 39 or 40. At the same time pick 22 is likely to be taken at pick 25 at the time its taken in the draft and pick 23 at the time of points matching. (pick 24 if Fletcher is bid before Davey). I think trading in pick 40 and 43 would get Essendon Davey with a small amount of points left over for a later bid for Munkara.

If a pick comes before pick 22 we will be looking to get a future second and a pick in the 40's. If we need points to match Munkara after that we'll either go into a small deficit in the third round or trade our F4 to a pick that'll cover the points needed.

Let's say it's GWS with pick 20. We trade 23 to Hawthorne for the Dogs F2 and pick 41 (which moves in to 38), we would need 715 points to match, which costs 38 (465) and 51 (259). We'd then have 57, 63 and 68 to match any Munkara bid if it comes after 40

 

[sherrif]

Essendon is in an interesting spot. If a trade for 4 for 2x firsts came through I can see us trying to be aggressive with 22 and moving to anywhere between Melbourne's pick 13 and GWS's 19 along with our F2.

If we simply take Tsatas or Wardlaw and a bid came in before it, I think 22 may be traded into a F2 and maybe a few points.

What if you went the other way and traded pick 4 and pick 22 and your future 2nd for 8 and 12 and 26 and ports future 3rd (tied to West Coast ) from West Coast if they rated the player very highly still available at pick 4 which would then be 5.

 

[Wild Bill]

I doubt it. The Dodoro meme is a bit out of control. It’ll be an F2 with maybe some junk picks swapped in later rounds as we need points.

A 2nd round pick for a 2 pick up grade? That’s a big price to pay.

Would you swap 6 and your F2 for 4?

 

[sherrif]

If a pick comes before pick 22 we will be looking to get a future second and a pick in the 40's. If we need points to match Munkara after that we'll either go into a small deficit in the third round or trade our F4 to a pick that'll cover the points needed.

Let's say it's GWS with pick 20. We trade 23 to Hawthorne for the Dogs F2 and pick 41 (which moves in to 38), we would need 715 points to match, which costs 38 (465) and 51 (259). We'd then have 57, 63 and 68 to match any Munkara bid if it comes after 40

So what happens if the bid comes in around 14 how much would that change what you do if at all.

 

[Taylor]

Unfortunately when clubs are looking to match a bid and make a trade they tend to get slaughtered on the deal, if the Bombers look to trade #22 with a bid coming earlier they won't get great value for it

 

[eth-dog]

What if you went the other way and traded pick 4 and pick 22 and your future 2nd for 8 and 12 and 26 and ports future 3rd (tied to West Coast ) from West Coast if they rated the player very highly still available at pick 4 which would then be 5.

I don't see why either club would do that. 26 won't get us an extra pick and it would net less than 22. And West Coast traded pick 2 out for multiple firsts for a reason. St Kilda, Carlton and maybe the Dogs are the only ones I can see us trading down to for various reasons. Gold Coast won't do it, Hawks won't trade out their F1, Geelong don't have a F1, West Coast as above and anything else is too late to have.

I can only see us trading it if we get an F1 out of the deal.

So what happens if the bid comes in around 14 how much would that change what you do if at all.

I doubt Melbourne or Sydney bid on him. Earliest would probably be GWS at 16, which is another 130 points and more than covered by pick 54 (51)

Unfortunately when clubs are looking to match a bid and make a trade they tend to get slaughtered on the deal, if the Bombers look to trade #22 with a bid coming earlier they won't get great value for it

What was the highest pick traded when this happened, out of curiosity?

 

[doug85]

A 2nd round pick for a 2 pick up grade? That’s a big price to pay.

Would you swap 6 and your F2 for 4?

Port did the exact same trade last year.

And yes I would, on the proviso we were accessing a player we projected to be head and shoulders above what’s available if we didn’t take the deal.

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

Port did the exact same trade last year.

And yes I would, on the proviso we were accessing a player we projected to be head and shoulders above what’s available if we didn’t take the deal.

Port expected to be top 8, so the pick would have been ~30. Hawthorn are likely to finish bottom, so could be pick 19. Not the same. You would trade pick 6 and 19 for 4?

 

[Wild Bill]

Port did the exact same trade last year.

And yes I would, on the proviso we were accessing a player we projected to be head and shoulders above what’s available if we didn’t take the deal.

Port was coming off a 17 win - 2nd place after the h&a season. Big risk for a bottom 4 side. Could be an early 20 pick.

 

[sherrif]

I don't see why either club would do that. 26 won't get us an extra pick and it would net less than 22. And West Coast traded pick 2 out for multiple firsts for a reason. St Kilda, Carlton and maybe the Dogs are the only ones I can see us trading down to for various reasons. Gold Coast won't do it, Hawks won't trade out their F1, Geelong don't have a F1, West Coast as above and anything else is too late to have.

I can only see us trading it if we get an F1 out of the deal.

I doubt Melbourne or Sydney bid on him. Earliest would probably be GWS at 16, which is another 130 points and more than covered by pick 54 (51)

What was the highest pick traded when this happened, out of curiosity?

The Liam Henry live bid situation would be the closest comparison. Not the same situation exactly but the point is that we had zero leverage when a surprise early bid came through to get points. We ended up trading pick No.66 and our rights to St Kilda future second-round pick to Port Adelaide for picks 52 and 55 while still incurring a points deficit. By the way I wouldn't rule out Carlton live bidding at pick 11. It's how they roll. Ive seen Davey as high as 13 in some of the mock drafts. 13-20 is the exact range most had Liam Henry at before his draft for what its worth. By the way Melbourne, West Coast, the Bulldogs and GWS could all use a classy small forward. I cant seen Davey getting past the GWS Pick 15 (that will be at least 16 at the time of the draft personally.) Quick and skillfull small forwards is one of their biggest needs.

 

[Taylor]

I don't see why either club would do that. 26 won't get us an extra pick and it would net less than 22. And West Coast traded pick 2 out for multiple firsts for a reason. St Kilda, Carlton and maybe the Dogs are the only ones I can see us trading down to for various reasons. Gold Coast won't do it, Hawks won't trade out their F1, Geelong don't have a F1, West Coast as above and anything else is too late to have.

I can only see us trading it if we get an F1 out of the deal.

I doubt Melbourne or Sydney bid on him. Earliest would probably be GWS at 16, which is another 130 points and more than covered by pick 54 (51)

What was the highest pick traded when this happened, out of curiosity?

I don't know what the highest is but I can refer you to 2019 draft when Freo were looking to match the bid at #9 on Henry and this trade happened for points:

Freo trade #66 and F2 to Port Adelaide for #52 and #55

That's after it cost #10, #28 and F4 to move up to pick #8

Moving up is very expensive, moving a pick out for points is very cheap to the club buying the pick

 

[TheGrizz]

The only issue is working with Dodo, who would want our either Future first straight up or a smorgasbord of 2nd/3rd rounders + 6 to move up.

It cost a F2 to go from 14 to 12.
From 6 to 4 might not require a F1, but it would be more than a single F2. Would be somewhere in the middle

Like maybe your F2 and WBD F2 but our F3 goes back to you, which is a 12 pick slide (on this year's ladder position) on WBD 2nd pick for example.

 

[doug85]

Port expected to be top 8, so the pick would have been ~30. Hawthorn are likely to finish bottom, so could be pick 19. Not the same. You would trade pick 6 and 19 for 4?

No, because that’s not what’s on the table. It’s an F2, you don’t know the exact value. That’s the risk you take. You’ve chosen the worst case scenario, which won’t come to fruition anyway due to academy bids.

 

[TDS7]

It cost a F2 to go from 14 to 12.
From 6 to 4 might not require a F1, but it would be more than a single F2. Would be somewhere in the middle

Like maybe your F2 and WBD F2 but our F3 goes back to you, which is a 12 pick slide (on this year's ladder position) on WBD 2nd pick for example.

I'm not doing 6 + F2(~25) + F2(~30) for 4 if I'm the Hawks. We'll just take 6 to the draft if that's the case. Remember, Ports F2 was supposed to be likely top 4.

We're just not going to get a reasonable agreement on this deal. If 6+WB(F2) for 4+Late Pick Swaps doesn't get it done it just won't happen.

 

[doug85]

Port was coming off a 17 win - 2nd place after the h&a season. Big risk for a bottom 4 side. Could be an early 20 pick.

Yep, it’s a riskier move. It comes down to how highly you rated the player at 4. For example, we had 5 + 6 in in 2015. There’s no one that wouldn’t trade 6 and our F2 (even though we finished last in 2016) for pick 4 to get Oliver.

If our positions were reversed, I’d do F2 and 6 to get either Humphrey or Wardlaw if we knew neither would be available at 6. We’ll be shit in 2023 too, so our F2 will be valuable

 

[KinderSmock]

Cal Twomey has reported that the Pies are interested in a pick swap.

Would Essendon entertain a trade for Pick 17+26 for what will become Pick 5?

 

[TheGrizz]

I'm not doing 6 + F2(~25) + F2(~30) for 4 if I'm the Hawks. We'll just take 6 to the draft if that's the case. Remember, Ports F2 was supposed to be likely top 4.

We're just not going to get a reasonable agreement on this deal. If 6+WB(F2) for 4+Late Pick Swaps doesn't get it done it just won't happen.

But that's not what I said.

What I said was 4 + 40 for 6 + 25 + 30, so a 10 pick slide for one of the picks.
If you think thats too steep for you taste, then don't do it.

But as I said, moving 2 spots from 14 to 12 cost a F2 just last year, so expecting 6 to 4 to cost the same seems rather illogical.

 

[BrutThough]

Cal Twomey has reported that the Pies are interested in a pick swap.

Would Essendon entertain a trade for Pick 17+26 for what will become Pick 5?

They wouldn't.

 

[eth-dog]

Cal Twomey has reported that the Pies are interested in a pick swap.

Would Essendon entertain a trade for Pick 17+26 for what will become Pick 5?

Not a chance.

 

[Soups]

Cal Twomey has reported that the Pies are interested in a pick swap.

Would Essendon entertain a trade for Pick 17+26 for what will become Pick 5?

Would you do that that’s horrible.

 

[Ash24]

Cal Twomey has reported that the Pies are interested in a pick swap.

Would Essendon entertain a trade for Pick 17+26 for what will become Pick 5?

Why would Essendon do that haha. Picture yourself in their shoes giving up a top 5 pick for a late first and second rounder.

 

[TDS7]

But that's not what I said.

What I said was 4 + 40 for 6 + 25 + 30, so a 10 pick slide for one of the picks.
If you think thats too steep for you taste, then don't do it.

But as I said, moving 2 spots from 14 to 12 cost a F2 just last year, so expecting 6 to 4 to cost the same seems rather illogical.

Well, your 3rd would be ~42 and should rise up given your list should be challenging for finals, but my sentiment remains the same.

I wouldn't do 6+Hawks F2 for 4. I like Tsatas a lot, but he isn't that far ahead of Humphrey in my eyes. Using past trades to dictate current value isn't as accurate as you'd think, circumstances are always different. In this scenario, Essendon would either take Tsatas at 4 or value someone further down the draft order similarly. So there are a few decision-making paths your recruitment team can go down (in this very specific scenario with the Hawks)

Take Tsatas at 4:
Your team then rates him as best available and is willing to forsake a potential mid second-rounder for the cost of taking someone else.
Tsatas > one of Humphrey/Ginbey/Phillipou (HGP) + Pick ~30
This is a reasonable course of action. If your team rates Tsatas higher than the others in this group, you would 100% take this route. In this case, we don't make the trade. I still think this is what is going to happen.


Let Tsatas slide and take HGP:
Your team rates another player outright higher than Tsatas.
For whatever reason, they decide not to trade. While in reality there may be multiple bidders, in this scenario lets assume the offer is 6+WBF2.
This doesn't make sense. If Hawthorns management team wanted to move up for Tsatas AND there were no other bidders (Massive assumption, but required for the argument) then there should be no reason a trade isn't done.


Trade 4 for (in this example) 6+WB(F2) and take HGP
Your team rates another player outright higher than Tsatas. They are approached by Hawthorn to trade up for Tsatas.
Tsatas < HGP + Pick 30
Even if Tsatas = HGP this trade would still benefit you. On a value basis, this trade would be done.

While these scenarios are heavily predicated on some assumptions, like there being no counterbidders, in this environment the value that is added through trade is dependent upon your internal rating of Tsatas. There's also the assumption on the Hawks part that Tsatas won't go to the Gold Coast, which is not a certainty. But realistically, there are only two scenarios here. You either think Tsatas is the best player available and take him, or you rate HGP higher and then make a trade to get extra value. If you were going to trade pick 4 because you rate someone else higher internally, you would take a trade any extra value. Of course, in reality, extra bidders force the price up and might mean that you get a better offer for pick 4, but if it's only you and us this is the way its going.

If Dodoro doesn't think WBF2 is fair value, then we don't do the trade. You take who you have as BPA, then we take our BPA. If that's Tsatas for you and someone else for us, then not trading makes sense. If it's HGP for you and we still get Tsatas, it'd seem like a lost opportunity for you guys to get some extra value. If Hawthorn don't rate Tsatas as highly as I do, then we just don't do the trade. But I can't see a trade happening for anything more than WBF2.