Review Is our forward line dysfunctional?

[Yoda_]

After yet another ordinary display by our forward line. I am pretty confident that it is NOT our forward line that is the problem, it is the ordinary ball movement by our midfielders. Far, far to often they would blaze away kicking in hope of a big contested mark by any one of Hurley, Gumbleton, Crameri, Ryder or Bellchambers.

When we get clean possession going forward we look awesome, hence why our turnover based game plan looks so good. Quick clean ball movement mixed with short kicks, hand balls to advantage and finally a long kick to a searching lead or kick out the back 'slingshot' style.

At the moment, the dry weather suits us against better teams (see Collingwood - Anzac Day) and the lesser teams just aren't very good, but as soon as it gets wet or the heat is turned up, our midfielders in particular turn to s***.

The sooner we get more skilled midfielders into our team, the sooner we will play consistently good football with us using the Inside 50 count to full advantage.



Just a few points on the forwards also.

* we seriously lack that lead up medium sized forward who is good for a goal or two a game, shame on me for saying this but Monfries was actually ok at this. We just need to find an improvement on 'Gus.
* Gumbleton was probably not the right choice last night but we did not help him one iota by bombing it long straight into the Swans defenders hands. Kick to advantage FFS.
* Crameri kicks goals somehow, he is almost playing like an opportunist forward rather than a KPF that he is. He needs to add more strings to his bow, and fast for him to be a main stay in our side.
* As good a servant as he has been, Winderlich really needs to be more dangerous when the ball comes in long to the KPF's. Can he crumb goals? I haven't seen it.
* We desperately need a crumbing, tackling small forward. If we had a Garlett, he would easily cash in with 40+ goals in our forward line.
* When "on", our goal scoring is very good, but our skill level will never let a single player dominate and kicks bags of goals. Who was the last Essendon player to kick a bag of 5 goals or more (againast a semi good side - Kyle Reimers 7 is nullinvoid because it was against Gold Coast).


Overall, we have the building blocks to become a very, very good team, just need to finetune a few positions and work on a few things, but overall we aren't a top 4 team yet. If we manage to get there (top 4) it will largely be on the back of the draw and nothing else.

 

[eth-dog]

Our biggest problem is that all our forwards are one-dimensional, except for the out of form Winderlich and the injured Hurley

Gumbleton and Carmeri are terrible at applying pressure and are poor below their feet

Davey is a pure crumber, not a fricken CHF

Kommer is only good at the defensive aspect

Our best forward line (after round 11) IMO would be:

Hurley/Gumbleton - Ryder - Zaka/Melksham etc
Davey - Daniher - Dell'Olio

 

[The Dustbin]

As discussed we need a lead up forward, which could be Crammers if JD can perform his role and hold his spot.

We seriously need Alwyn back in, and I hope we target an established small forward during this years trade period.

 

[sneakyjetta]

I think we need to go back to basics

What we need:
- 2 x Key Position Forwards
- 1 x lead up forward
- 1 x resting ruck
- 1 x crumbing forward
- 1 x defensive/creative forward

How we can achieve this:

Our two key position forwards: Hurley + Daniher or Gumbleton + Daniher or Gumbleton + Hurleu

-----------Hurley------------
-----------Daniher------------


One lead up forward (think monfries): I think crameri can easily play this role, winderlich cannot as he is not good enough over head, o'brien should be given a chance imo as he showed he can play this role last year

-------Hurley----O'brien------
-------Daniher------------------

Resting ruck: Bellchambers/Ryder

-----------Hurley---O'brien----
Ryder----Daniher---------

Defensive/creative forward: Winderlich, Kommer, Jetta all can play this role but i'd stick with winderlich

---Winderlich---Hurley---O'brien----
---Ryder------Daniher-------

Crumbing forward: Well we only have one at the moment, davey. dell'olio should be given ago when promited:

---Winderlich----Hurley---O'brien----
----Ryder-------Daniher----Davey---

 

[The Prosecutor]

sneakyjetta, disagree on Winderlich not being good over head, in fact, I would say he is excellent overhead for his size and build.

 

[rines]

When can we admit that Winders is woeful out of form??

Looked a shadow of a player and has failed against any substantial opposition. I would support moving Winder's back to HB line for a chance to recapture running form.

 

[The Prosecutor]

When can we admit that Winders is woeful out of form??

Looked a shadow of a player and has failed against any substantial opposition. I would support moving Winder's back to HB line for a chance to recapture running form.

A pretty good example of what happens when you start resting players for the hell of it, especially after they play their best game in years.

 

[Autobahn]

When can we admit that Winders is woeful out of form??

Looked a shadow of a player and has failed against any substantial opposition. I would support moving Winder's back to HB line for a chance to recapture running form.

I hope he isn't going into some kind of preservation mode and not giving it his all. One more strung hammy and it could just about be the end for Winderlich.

 

[gO_bOmBeRz]

Goddard needs to spend more time up forward to straighten things out. Has good hands and a great kick.

 

[Phone]

After yet another ordinary display by our forward line. I am pretty confident that it is NOT our forward line that is the problem, it is the ordinary ball movement by our midfielders. Far, far to often they would blaze away kicking in hope of a big contested mark by any one of Hurley, Gumbleton, Crameri, Ryder or Bellchambers.

But here's the issue: are these midfielders doing it because they think it's the best way to success, or because they've been told to do just that by the coaches. There's no point blaming any of the players if it's a flawed game-plan element.

 

[Yoda_]

But here's the issue: are these midfielders doing it because they think it's the best way to success, or because they've been told to do just that by the coaches. There's no point blaming any of the players if it's a flawed game-plan element.

These are the midfielders that aren't even looking when they kick it. Stanton was probably the worst last night. Kicking it over his shoulder numerous times explains his DE% of 44% or whatever it was.

We look awesome when we try and spot up team mates, see Jobe last week on the left and again last night kicking to Carlise in the last.

We were lacking numbers around the offensive side of the stoppages. Two quick, slick hands to the running half backs ofthe Swans and we got humiliated by McVeigh, Malceski, etc.

 

[Yoda_]

As discussed we need a lead up forward, which could be Crammers if JD can perform his role and hold his spot.

We seriously need Alwyn back in, and I hope we target an established small forward during this years trade period.

I don't think Crameri is that great below his knees thus making his useless.

It kills me to say this but Monfries would be much better than a Winderlich, Jetta, Kommer etc. As that lead up forward. Meh, he's moved on,.

Is there any good established small forwards available? First round draft pick perhaps?

 

[fairlight_cmi]

It's a god damn kerfuffle up there at the moment. Really need everyone fit (looking at you Hurley), and firing and getting minutes into them to learn how to play together. Too many changes and inconsistency at the minute.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Winders was better yesterday, but is still woefully out of form. He's worth persisting with for much, much longer though because he's so good when he's on.

We need to get rid of Kommer and bring in forwards who can actually threaten the scoreboard.

 

[gO_bOmBeRz]

Would like to see Nick O'Brien have a go. How has he been in the VFL ?

 

[sneakyjetta]

Would like to see Nick O'Brien have a go. How has he been in the VFL ?

average at VFL level - been experiencing "second year blues" However we all know VFL form dosnt correlate to AFL form. A player could be poor on the VFL level but play well at the AFL level e.g. reimers

 

[Yoda_]

Winders was better yesterday, but is still woefully out of form. He's worth persisting with for much, much longer though because he's so good when he's on.

We need to get rid of Kommer and bring in forwards who can actually threaten the scoreboard.

I'd like Winders get back to a wing where he played his most damaging football.

His run and carry is as valuable as Stanton when he is "on", sadly though, we may never see the best of Winders again

 

[eth-dog]

I'll throw somebody in from left field- Kyle Hardingham. He's got the speed, the hands, but maybe not the kicking or the tank (Can't remember if it's good/average/bad). He's a smart forward

 

[Loonerty]

average at VFL level - been experiencing "second year blues" However we all know VFL form dosnt correlate to AFL form. A player could be poor on the VFL level but play well at the AFL level e.g. reimers

?
Reimers was always good in VFL but always horrid in AFL. Don't know what that comparison is supposed to be.

 

[Autobahn]

I'll throw somebody in from left field- Kyle Hardingham. He's got the speed, the hands, but maybe not the kicking or the tank (Can't remember if it's good/average/bad). He's a smart forward

You'd at least expect him to have a defensive mindset to keep the ball in the forward line. My only worry is he'd cannonball into everyone with his flight of fancy. It'd definitely be far from the worst idea giving him a shot in the scoring end.

 

[Zach Package]

You'd at least expect him to have a defensive mindset to keep the ball in the forward line. My only worry is he'd cannonball into everyone with his flight of fancy. It'd definitely be far from the worst idea giving him a shot in the scoring end.

thing with hardingham is he's more stick a foot in the back and jump over everyone rather than cannonballing everyone and potentially injuring a teammate.

I think the idea has merit, but doubt that crameri and him can co-exist.

 

[fairlight_cmi]

average at VFL level - been experiencing "second year blues" However we all know VFL form dosnt correlate to AFL form. A player could be poor on the VFL level but play well at the AFL level e.g. reimers

Reimers was good at AFL level?!

 

[BrunoV]

The way I see it the problems exist at three levels; 1) game plan/instruction/execution of, 2) personnel / team selection and 3) skills and decision making up the ground. Ultimately the forward set up doesn't work as it is not converting our possession of the ball into goals and not meaningfully locking the ball into our half of the ground.


1) Game plan / instructions / execution

The problems with the game plan are twofold and it is from these issues that I think most of the "dysfunctionality" flows. The first and most obvious problem is our repeated and aimless bombing to contested situations which can only be the result of the instructions the players are being given. While I disagree that bombing the ball long to packs is even close to being the best way to use talented key forwards it is the inability of the small forwards/flankers and midfielders to execute the offensive part of our plan that is causing most of the current problems.

If you can get past the feeling you're feeling about Paul Roos, that he is an intolerable flog when commenting on Sydney games, he articulated, almost perfectly, what is actually happening with our half forwards and midfielders which is killing our forward line. These players are either getting back to provide extra numbers or getting sucked up into the game or are being instructed to press/zone too high up the ground and are not running hard enough between the 50m arcs to get back into the forward line when we have possession.

When we kick long to contested situations our expectation cannot seriously be that our forwards will take pack marks (because even the best key forward of all time all took the ball on the lead more often not), it will be that our forwards create the crumbs for the smalls to run on to. These crumbers are either not there or are the ones who are competing for the marks because they key forwards are the ones up the ground.

It seems that if the opposition half back or midfielders are not following our boys up the ground, where they are being left to themselves anyway, they stay at half back where they can invariably outnumber our forwards that stay back (generally Alwyn Davey). We are then almost exclusively kicking the ball, poorly, to contested situations in which we do not have the numerical advantage.

The reason I think we can go even taller at the selection table is because it is not the ability of the forwards to chase that locks the ball forward as much as it is the ability of the players up the ground to press back onto the opposition when it has the ball in our forward line.


2) Personnel / team selection

There has been a bit of trying to fit square pegs into round holes as far as the selection of our forward line is concerned, and it has certainly not helped us make the best of our odd forward plan. It has to be conceded that the constant injuries to Hurley have not helped but it is unlikely that his continued presence would have necessarily change that much. Davey has also been a big loss in the last few weeks. In fact, almost none of our forwards are even close to 100% form and/or fitness.

Winderlich's presence is deceptive because on paper he is a fast, dynamic and intelligent forward but the reality is that he is not covering the ground anywhere near as well as we want him to and he is not functioning as either a crumbing/defensive or lead up mid sized option.

Crameri is clearly struggling with his body. At his best he burns his opponents on the lead and/or can hold them out of one on one marking contests to take the ball. His work up to the wings and back generally provides him with his best avenue to goal (running back with the flight of the incoming ball). At the moment he is not doing any of this. It is not because he sucks all of the sudden.

There is then the structural issue of relying on Crameri as 1st or 2nd choice key forward because, even at his best, he doesn't operate in the simple repeat leading patterns of players like John Brown or Nick Riewoldt (which is something that Gumby is clearly more suited to because it is what he actually does). When we include Crameri as a key forward we hardly get the required presence of a CHF between 40m and 75m from goal which doubles as the main outlet for our players with the ball at half back. We are basically half a key forward short every time we play Crameri (which is not his fault). TRB has the balance wrong.

We are a little hamstrung at the moment by Crameri's condition because unless we do rest him and let him get over whatever his current problem is we cannot bring in Gumby/Daniher as the additional marking option because we will be too slow. Obviously TRB feel that a limited Crameri and the extra small provide more than Gumby/Daniher and that small, although I hope they are questioning themselves. I am still confident that Crameri could ultimately play in a similar role to the one Gus Monfries was playing but it is not something he can currently do.

I am not convinced that Kommer is the best 22 player TRB think he is. I know Dell is not yet eligible to play but he does attack the man and hopefully has some understanding of the zone because average numbers of tackles, possessions and below average numbers of goals and assists make Kommer something close to a liability. I can't accept that we cannot get more out of this role. If not Dell, then we should look at playing Howlett as the defensive forward as he is at least consistently manic in pressuring opponents, is actually a tackling machine and has shown that he can hit the score board.


3) Skill and decision making errors

The skill and decision making errors only really hurt when the forward line functions. If we ever manage to get key forwards leading at our ball carriers we tend not to kick it to their advantage. Kicking too many points is also a problem. At an even more basic level many of our players even struggle to kick it to the side of the pack at which our key forwards find themselves.

We also do other sorts of moronic things like ignoring guys like Hurley and Gumby when they are on the lead, Hurley has even cracked it a few times, and have talented players looking to give the ball off once we are in dangerous scoring positions. Hurley, for example, should never be looking to give the ball off because he is an excellent kick (despite his goal kicking woes) and the escape from having to take responsibility only makes things worse as he often psychs himself out of the shot by looking to give the ball off.

The decisions to play on first and work out whether it is an advantage later has to be influencing the timing of our forwards' leads. Often we play on into trouble and delay the kick of the ball by seconds which would have to destroy the timing of any leads of our forwards.


Solution?

It is very difficult to work out what the solution is because if we want to continue down the current path we need to run a whole lot harder than we currently are. The answer is not bringing Danhier in and bombing it long to him either (which is why we have resisted selecting him). View a look to the future, I do hope that ultimately TRB understands that our best forward structure would be built around Gumby and JD.

We do need to ensure that we are at least giving ourselves the best opportunity to convert field position into scoring opportunities. In the short term I'd look at playing Stanton at half forward, because someone needs to cover that territory, Howlett as the defensive forward and giving Crameri the sort of meaningful break that would allow us to test out whether he can properly function as a half forward. On weight of numbers Dell has to be given an opportunity as soon as he is eligible. Unfortunately on the basis of everything above, other than the skills, Jetta is not someone who I think can play the role we need him to play.

 

[Maddogm]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-06-04/dons-look-to-make-it-count

sounds like they're trying to address both entries and leading patterns

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Carlisle was in our forward line for 2 mins before he took an uncontested mark inside 50. First time I've seen that from one of our key forwards in a long time. Maybe Hurley needs some game time down back to remember how to get separation from a defender.