It's not all doom and gloom - the 'real' ladder after round 6

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Gaborone

Team Captain
Mar 1, 2007
420
232
North Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Norwich City FC
To help keep our spirits up I have done an analysis of the 2020 Draw taking into account 'expected' wins based on the 2019 final ladder against teams that finished lower, and losses against those that finished higher. On the basis of that information I have constructed the 'real' ladder. Where teams have the same +/- they are ranked according to the difficulty of. their actual draw so far. The result of the postponed Melbourne v Essendon match would alter the results slightly.

We are (=) second!

The numbers listed in the first section relate to where teams finished on the ladder in 2019. Average difficulty shows that Hawthorn for example has played a team that on average finished between 4 and 5 on the 2019 ladder EACH week. Now that we have those matches under our belt all we have to do is to beat the 'easy' teams!!!!

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Steven Tyler

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 16, 2009
7,695
14,691
Right behind you!
AFL Club
Hawthorn
To help keep our spirits up I have done an analysis of the 2020 Draw taking into account 'expected' wins based on the 2019 final ladder against teams that finished lower, and losses against those that finished higher. On the basis of that information I have constructed the 'real' ladder. Where teams have the same +/- they are ranked according to the difficulty of. their actual draw so far. The result of the postponed Melbourne v Essendon match would alter the results slightly.

We are (=) second!

The numbers listed in the first section relate to where teams finished on the ladder in 2019. Average difficulty shows that Hawthorn for example has played a team that on average finished between 4 and 5 on the 2019 ladder EACH week. Now that we have those matches under our belt all we have to do is to beat the 'easy' teams!!!!

View attachment 912580
Teams coming up against us see the Hawks as an “easy” game
 

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thejockey

Club Legend
Apr 5, 2015
2,668
4,926
keilor
AFL Club
Hawthorn
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Buffalo Bills, Boston Red Sox
Thanks for compiling

The issue I would have with using that is
2019 is now a long time ago and might not be a great indicator of 2020 form and position.
I tend to look at a 4 week block as a better representation

Eg Richmond - draw against Collingwood , schooled by us then St Kilda , beat Melbourne who look a genuine bottom 6-8.
Not great form there .
Using 2019 its a huge win , using that Richmond are/were way off 2019.

Then it simple comes down to us looking very average ( I would suggest bottom 6 ) last 2 weeks regardless of opponant . You can also throw in a shocking last 1/4 before those games vs North who look very ordinary .

Add in a terrible % to the above and the current form is a huge concern , because we wouldnt be beating too many sides anyway .
 

JoondalupJ

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 9, 2006
12,493
4,504
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
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Perth Wildcats basketball
I like and appreciate the sentiment (and the data) but I watched us play Collingwood last weekend.
My spirits are likely to stay low until such time as we play better footy.
I have to agree Flukey, I remember fade-outs against 2 teams we ended up just beating we would perhaps have lost both idf we were playing and extra 5 or 10 minutes, that is not a good sign, it drops us 8 points down on a fantasy ladder.
We are 3 and 3 , we could be 1 and 5, until we begin burying sides again, I think we are not in form , we have the players but we have injuries as well, and the guys appear to be sometimes lost a bit in the game plan , the kicking is very unplanned like with bad passing, now we all know Clarko will be fixing that, but some players look a bit lost, I thought Geelong looked great last week but last night Collingwood looked premiership material and still not playing at their full and best, they would pressure, tackle always attacking the ball, very pointed in their aim.
We have some big steps to take, yet? But we have a great list and it never just happens everything is a trial and error, but Hawks know how to recruit and inlist the services of good people, so be patient, but really this year is so different, I am still disappointed with the shorter quarters I guess its because the AFL thought that games would be very close together, and well maybe they should have simply kept the same times for quarters and added to the bench for this season.
I am wondering if the AFL is going to return to normal time frames for quarters in the finals? Does anybody know?
 

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bris tarangau

Club Legend
Aug 11, 2013
1,669
2,027
Brisbane QLD
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Arsenal, Barcelona
Our list is terrible. Full of poor decision makers with poor skills. We are never going to ‘pinch’ a flag. Our club should aim for another sustained period at the top.
Full rebuild required.
Sadly, a number of these have been kept a couple of years longer than required. And sadly still, it is the price of having sustained success since 2007.
 

Delecate Des

Debutant
Oct 1, 2019
130
439
Somewhere over the rainbow
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Liverpool FC
So after all the doom, gloom and lets sell all our good players both young and not so young! We are effectively 2 games out of the eight with a host of other teams, all be it we are with a crap %.

So far we have played five of last years finalist Richmond (W), GWS (L), Brisbane (W) Geelong (L) Collingwood (L).

Since the Richmond game we have seen injuries to Scimshaw (missing 3/7), Lewis (3/7), Breust (4/7), Patton (4/7). Burgoyne O'Meara, Ceglar, and now O'Brien. Overall we seem underdone since the restart with Patton and Lewis in particular (Lewis returning from injuries) struggling. Others seem to be carrying injuries Henderson and Mitchell (Who is carrying a shoulder injury as well as returning from a broken leg FFS!)

We are yet to see Impey and Howe? Jar's provides the leg speed we crave and while he will never be a superstar, I reckon we have missed Crazy Eyes work around the clearances.

We rely on adhering to structures which require continuity of which there has been very little of this year for a number of reasons. As confidence and form fail our structures begin to fall apart, we then turn to sh#t! Last year we had Ceglar, O'Brien and Lewis playing with confidence and a big part of last years late resurgence! Currently it could be argued that the only ones playing with form and confidence are Day (2 games), Frost (First year with us) with others including Smith, Wingard, Big Boy, Gunston showing glimpses.

Hopefully with key personnel returning from injury and others regaining fitness. We can get a better picture of where we truly are? Also playing a few games at Optus Stadium in Perth which suits us better will also help!

We have seen a lot of talk about how crap our list is suppose to be, but it should be noted that the team with the list full of mega stars with some on long term contracts is exactly one spot ahead of us.......
 

Roddy

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 10, 2006
10,025
9,938
M-Town
AFL Club
Hawthorn
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Aussie Cricket team.
I'm not fussed, this year is a write-off, Clarko is stripping things back, re-building and looking to the long term future, and this will pay off in 2-3 years. Just like it did in 05-06 and 09-10. Obviously he wants the team to perform on a weekly basis, but he's more fixated on our next flag, rather than trying to maintain some sort of 'winning percentage' to make himself look good. The next flag all he cares about, and he's willing to take the short term hits to get there.

Even if he's actually thinking about retiring or moving on in '22, he'll be setting it up for the next coach. His legacy is set in stone, greatest modern day coach, he is peerless. He has nothing more to prove....
 

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