Jetta Or The Win?

[Smokin]

Really ?

2002
Pick 2 - Daniel Wells
Pick 3 - Jared Brennan
Pick 13 - Byron Schammer
Pick 14 - Daniel Bell

I'd nearly give that to the teens.

2003
Pick 2 - Andrew Walker
Pick 3 - Colin Sylvia
Pick 13 - Brent Stanton
Pick 14 - Fergus Watts

Little to no difference with Stanton clearky the best of that lot

2004
Pick 2 - Jarryd Roughhead
Pcik 3 - Ryan Griffin
Pick 13 - Matthew Bate
Pick 14 - Angus Monfries

Griffin the clear standout however IMO both Bate and Monfries have shown more than Roughead.

2005
Pick 2 - Dale Thomas
Pick 3 - Xavier Ellis
Pick 13 - Shannon Hurn
Pick 14 - Grant Burchill

Burchill is the best of that lot and Hurn got a few games in the best mid-field in the league last season.
Advantage the teens.

You cant selectively pick 2 players out of 10 and compare that and that alone.

With any draft, you are working on probabilities. Nothing is guaranteed.

I challenge you to show me any drafts picks 11-20 being overall better than 1-10. You cant.

Thats the point, the higher the pick increases your chances. Yes, there are anomalies of course, like you pointed out, but that doesnt mean lower picks are all of a sudden better.

Simply ludicrous to suggest otherwise.

The draft is not an exact science, can never be. But like a Casino ensures it has the probabilities in it's favour, of course its frugal to have the probabilities in your favour in a given draft.

In the long run, higher picks win out. Just like in the long run, even tho some may retire in a casino, the house will win overall.

 

[Daytripper]

xavier ellis will end up being the best of the 2005 bunch

2006
2 - Scott Gumbleton
3 - Lachlan Hansen
13 - Jack Riewoldt
14 - James Sellar

i know which two i would prefer

None of those players have played a game.
You can't possibly make a judgement yet.

 

[hulld]

i've seen them all play multiple games.
gumby will be a star, as will hansen

whilst riewoldt is too slow to make it at afl level and sellar is all hype

 

[Daytripper]

You cant selectively pick 2 players out of 10 and compare that and that alone.

Fair point but I was asked to compare 2 & 3 vs 13 & 14.

With any draft, you are working on probabilities. Nothing is guaranteed.

I challenge you to show me any drafts picks 11-20 being overall better than 1-10. You cant.

Agree but not significantly better thats it is worth infecting a club with a losing culture to do so.

Thats the point, the higher the pick increases your chances. Yes, there are anomalies of course, like you pointed out, but that doesnt mean lower picks are all of a sudden better.

Simply ludicrous to suggest otherwise.

The draft is not an exact science, can never be. But like a Casino ensures it has the probabilities in it's favour, of course its frugal to have the probabilities in your favour in a given draft.

In the long run, higher picks win out. Just like in the long run, even tho some may retire in a casino, the house will win overall.

I agree with all that but as said above the worth of perhaps getting a good player that you would not have otherwise got is not worth the angst of losing.

 

[Smokin]

Smokin,
Good post.

Look my point is that the worth of a draft pick is usually massively devalued after only one season or more.

Another example.
Say we finish 15th and have the 2nd pick.

Collingwood offer us Dale Thomas for that pick.
Would you go for it ?

Most would say no and thats not a slight on Thomas who I think is a very good player.
So after only one season the worth of that pick has already been reduced even though that player is better than average.

To me a winning culture is far more important than draft picks.

Let the losing clubs rebuild via draft picks. Its never proven to be successful and all it does in my opinion is give the supporters of those clubs something to talk about in the off-season.

I hear ya, but that because of itself.

Because we hype that #2 pick so much, Thomas isnt seen as a great pickup. Then, because we hype #2 up so much, we would never trade for him, because rightly or wrongly, we expect pick #2 next year to be a superstar, which may or may not happen.

But, was it better for Collingwood to have pick 2, or 8 in that Thomas draft?

What Im saying is forget the hype, generally the higher player will be better than the lower picked ones, regardless of where they end up in relation to what is expected from that pick, if Im making sense.

 

[Smokin]

Agree but not significantly better thats it is worth infecting a club with a losing culture to do so.

I agree, this is a line which you have to draw, and it's impossible to know.

If we had beaten Carlton instead of drawing, how much, if any, would that have affected our "culture"? I say not much.

How much better will our list be with having Jetta as an extra pick? I say more than "not much".

 

[hulld]

the 2005 draft wasn't a great bunch of kids anyway. the reason you are talking about thomas not being worthy of a no.2 pick is because you are comparing him to this year's draftees. he would have been lucky to have been drafted in the first round if he was in the 2006 draft.

 

[Daytripper]

the 2005 draft wasn't a great bunch of kids anyway. the reason you are talking about thomas not being worthy of a no.2 pick is because you are comparing him to this year's draftees. he would have been lucky to have been drafted in the first round if he was in the 2006 draft.

2005 draft was pretty good.

Again, you are talking about the 2006 draftees as if they've already played a game.

They haven't so impossible to comment on their ability at the moment.

 

[hulld]

it's not impossible if you have seen them play

 

[Jex]

Jetta clearly. 4 wins, 18 losses = 2nd last. 3 wins, 1 draw, 18 losses = 2nd last. We avoided the spoon and still got a priority pick. Is there really a debate.

 

[Bluebear]

Yes that's right.
If we beat Carlton that was 4 wins and still had 1 more game to play.

Clubs winning no more than four games in a season from next year will
be eligible for a priority pick taken after the completion of the
first round of the national draft. If the club has successive poor
years of no more than 16 points in each of those seasons — not
averaged over the course of those seasons — the priority pick will be
taken, as it is now, before the national draft.

So Carlton could win four games this year, finish ahead of the Roos on 1-2 wins, avoid the spoon, and get picks 1 and 3.

Not bad. I'll take the wins though.

 

[hulld]

yer 4 wins would be a great effort by carlton. i'm not sure if they can do it though.

 

[RED AND BLACK SOLDIER]

Obviously Jetta, that's a no brainer.

 

[warney7]

Last year was that bad, one or two more wins wouldn't have made a difference.
All it would have achieved is that we would have made a bad season even worse, by not getting the full 'refunds' on a sh.thouse season.

Of course Jetta > winning!

2006 is in the past........Jetta is part of the future!

 

[jules101]

I said the win only because I hate losing no matter the consequences of winning that match.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

take the win for sure i dont care how good jetta has the promise of becoming its carlton, and i think 4 wins as apposed to 3 is still better season to look back on for the players motivation

 

[Silvagnis]

2003
Pick 2 - Andrew Walker
Pick 3 - Colin Sylvia
Pick 13 - Brent Stanton
Pick 14 - Fergus Watts

Little to no difference with Stanton clearky the best of that lot.

Not true.

Carlton wouldn't take Stanton at two if they had the choice again and Walker's potential and ability to play anywhere is greater than Stanton's. A guy called Brock Mclean was picked five and David Mundy was selected with what would be a priority pick or a second round pick last year.

Of course you'd take Jetta because I wouldn't hand Hampson back for the sake of 2 points.

 

[The Grover]

Crap.
Refer Adelaide Crows and Sydney Swans.

They seem to be going all right.

Haven't seen St Kilda or Hawthorn win any flags yet either.

Thats a good point but once Crows lose McLeod,Ricciuto,Edwards they will fall from top 8.

One other point to consider is the interstate sides advantages in relation to money, facilities, home ground advantage.

 

[DaSawx]

The argument people like to make is whether teams that get regular high picks like Hawthorn, Carlton and what St. Kilda did is a a guarentee for success or whether you should aim to keep a winning culture. Sure a lot of players on Sydney's or Adelaide's list are from the draft, every teams has to be, but a lot aren't terribly high while neither team really spent much time with consecutive poor seasons. In Sydney's case they actually traded away picks for their best match-winner, Barry Hall.

 

[footy_paul]

jetta=lot more wins in the future