Coach Justin Longmuir

[The Lobbster]

This is either word games to benefit him or if you are accurate and it was a silly thing to say it shows a lack of clarity in his communication that I find just as worrying.

He said they would improve. They didn't.

Surely that is the fairest way to interpret what was said?

With communication, especially assuming that this was a spoken interview that was then written down, it can be really important on the exact wording because it can imply tone.

1. If he said that we can improve, then I would hope that everyone agrees with this. its not the most charismatic answer but it does do the basic thing of trying to be positive and to show belief in the team

2. If he said that we must/will improve, then its not a great answer. It basically does the same as point 1 but unfortunately it puts more pressure on the playing group which is in general, not good.

As for how important media performance is, then its completely a matter of opinion. I couldn't really care less how charismatic JL is, as long as we continue to improve. I've also found that in general, JL doesn't say the wrong thing, but just the right thing in a very boring way.

 

[Freomaniac]

Nice story, except Thompson coached them to the premiership in 2007, GF in 2008 and premiership again in 2009, wasn’t sacked until 2010. Chris Scott inherited a premiership team and won in his first season as coach in 2011, then had to wait 11 years to taste success again in 2022.

Mark Bomber Thompson wasnt sacked at the end of 2010. He resigned or quit. He was tired and "Burnt out".

Same thing happened with Damien Hardwick in the middle of 2023.

Same thing happened with Worsfold when he left the Eagles coaching job in 2013.

Justin Longmuir wont last 10-15 years as a dockers coach. No one is gonna be a dockers coach and be here for 20 years unless the dockers win multiple flags (would not complain about anyone steering the dockers to a few flags in a 20 year period).

 

[CapitalA]

the question is are we patient enough to tolerate missing out on finals in 2024 to potientially play finals in 2025-29?

It would be a bit easier to stomach if we actually win most of our home games. Went home very flat too many times this year at optus stadium.

 

[freo1997]

It would be a bit easier to stomach if we actually win most of our home games. Went home very flat too many times this year at optus stadium.

That has to be something brought up in the pre season. 5 wins at home is shocking. 2 of them against Eagles too.

 

[CapitalA]

I agree with some of this, butI it's not an arbitrary pass mark. It's an indicator of whether a coach has the capacity to show, in his first five years of coaching (which is a fair amount of time), that he has what it takes.

He got us to 12th in his first year. You may think finishing 12th in his fifth year is adequate progress from 12th in his first year. I don't.

And if people don't like externally applied indicators? How about two of his own he applied to himself this season alone.
1. When asked at the start of 2023 season if we could go better than last year, he replied that if we didn't, something has seriously gone wrong.
2. When asked at the start of 2023 season what was the #1 thing he would try to improve, he nominated fixing our slow starts in games.
How did he go against those two indicators he voluntarily applied to himself?

If there isn't significant, major progress this year I've seen enough evidence to be confident he's not up to it.

I would argue that making 5th with an outlier age and experience demographic in his 3rd year is a pretty good indicator. Just looking at his first and 5th year results is poor analysis. Feeder supporter kind of analysis.

 

[DocT]

I would argue that making 5th with an outlier age and experience demographic in his 3rd year is a pretty good indicator. Just looking at his first and 5th year results is poor analysis. Feeder supporter kind of analysis.

You might be the pot calling the kettle black - there's a lot more to the Feeder's analysis than the 1st vs 5th year comparison. It's not poor analysis, it's a single comment in a wider conversation featuring a LOT of analysis worth considering.

I think JLo is a good coach and I agree with you that the performance in 2022 is a good sign of this. We all agree we want to see Freo win a premiership. So the most pertinent question is not if JLo is a good coach but does the club believe he good enough in our context to get us there? And how much time do you need before a sensible decision could be made that he is unlikely to get us there and we need to look elsewhere?

Our big backwards step in 2023 (at least on the table) must be given proper weight.

The retirement of Mundy and the loss of his on-field leadership is a significant factor in our poorer performance. No shade on JLo there. But, there are massive factors that we seem to have been unable to fix in 2023 that if we do not show signs of an early turnaround in 2024 I think should increase pressure on JLo's viability.
1. Our pitiful home performance should not happen. We have a huge home ground advantage. The coaches/leadership group have so much in their favour to work with to optimise the team's performance. If we are not heaps better early in 2024 in this respect then it looks like something is not fixable in the leadership structure.
2. Our appalling Q1 performances are on the leadership group/coaches. It is their core business to plan for the opposition and have the playing group united and fired up ready to go at the first bounce. If this dismal failure persists into 2024 then it looks like there is something not fixable in the leadership structure.

I agree with all those who point out the age profile of our playing group. But, if we are serious about a premiership and we remember we have a lot of first round picks running around, then we must be careful about ascribing too many losses to this 'it will fix itself' factor.

We outperformed in 2022 and if anyone thought we would automatically go as well in 2023 they were deluding themseves. But our 2024 slide was huge and would not have happened if we had not found a way to squander our home ground advantage and consistently fail to turn up for the start of games. In my view these factors are mainly attributable to leadership, not age profile. And so far the leadership have not been able to solve these problems.

My 2023 narrative is that we seemed to play better after 2 periods of sustained underperformance.
1. Before the bye we were 2-5 and loking like also rans. We then unexpectedly won 4 in a row. We were back in the hunt for the eight.
2. After the bye we went 1-6 and we were also rans. Then unexpectedly we went 3-2 with our losses being good performances vs Lions and Port.
The pattern? We seemed to do better when expectations on us were lower. A possible reason for this is that when we are taking ourselves and our 'gameplan' seriously we are over-thinking and lacking spark. This explanation also fits with our failures at home and in 1st quarters. This is on the leadership group, and ultimately JLo, to fix.

I'm hoping JLo wil fix it. I like inclusivity, collaboration, building a team, appropriate humility, letting others shine and do their thing well. I think JLo is this sort of person. But I think it is appropriate that 2024 is a year of reckoning.

 

[Dockeroo]

You might be the pot calling the kettle black - there's a lot more to the Feeder's analysis than the 1st vs 5th year comparison. It's not poor analysis, it's a single comment in a wider conversation featuring a LOT of analysis worth considering.

I think JLo is a good coach and I agree with you that the performance in 2022 is a good sign of this. We all agree we want to see Freo win a premiership. So the most pertinent question is not if JLo is a good coach but does the club believe he good enough in our context to get us there? And how much time do you need before a sensible decision could be made that he is unlikely to get us there and we need to look elsewhere?

Our big backwards step in 2023 (at least on the table) must be given proper weight.

The retirement of Mundy and the loss of his on-field leadership is a significant factor in our poorer performance. No shade on JLo there. But, there are massive factors that we seem to have been unable to fix in 2023 that if we do not show signs of an early turnaround in 2024 I think should increase pressure on JLo's viability.
1. Our pitiful home performance should not happen. We have a huge home ground advantage. The coaches/leadership group have so much in their favour to work with to optimise the team's performance. If we are not heaps better early in 2024 in this respect then it looks like something is not fixable in the leadership structure.
2. Our appalling Q1 performances are on the leadership group/coaches. It is their core business to plan for the opposition and have the playing group united and fired up ready to go at the first bounce. If this dismal failure persists into 2024 then it looks like there is something not fixable in the leadership structure.

I agree with all those who point out the age profile of our playing group. But, if we are serious about a premiership and we remember we have a lot of first round picks running around, then we must be careful about ascribing too many losses to this 'it will fix itself' factor.

We outperformed in 2022 and if anyone thought we would automatically go as well in 2023 they were deluding themseves. But our 2024 slide was huge and would not have happened if we had not found a way to squander our home ground advantage and consistently fail to turn up for the start of games. In my view these factors are mainly attributable to leadership, not age profile. And so far the leadership have not been able to solve these problems.

My 2023 narrative is that we seemed to play better after 2 periods of sustained underperformance.
1. Before the bye we were 2-5 and loking like also rans. We then unexpectedly won 4 in a row. We were back in the hunt for the eight.
2. After the bye we went 1-6 and we were also rans. Then unexpectedly we went 3-2 with our losses being good performances vs Lions and Port.
The pattern? We seemed to do better when expectations on us were lower. A possible reason for this is that when we are taking ourselves and our 'gameplan' seriously we are over-thinking and lacking spark. This explanation also fits with our failures at home and in 1st quarters. This is on the leadership group, and ultimately JLo, to fix.

I'm hoping JLo wil fix it. I like inclusivity, collaboration, building a team, appropriate humility, letting others shine and do their thing well. I think JLo is this sort of person. But I think it is appropriate that 2024 is a year of reckoning.

Great post

 

[CapitalA]

You might be the pot calling the kettle black

I close my case.

 

[Purple7x08_24]

will make finals next season. Too talented not to. Just need to polish the game and build more leadership.

 

[clivenator26]

Is there a coach under more pressure next year?

No contract, more players leaving, none of note sound like coming in the other way. The fixture better be kind or he could be in some trouble by rd 8-10!

I would’ve said Hinkley but he got two years and it seems Port are happy winning home & away games.

Beverage maybe on par, Dogs seem to be very up and down and internally they’d have top 4-6 holes and would think a flag isn’t out of the question.

Simpson a little but the bar is so low they can’t get much worse, can they? Nissy is gone/going so that buys the club some space.

Goodwin will be under some pressure but he has survived Bartlett’s sniping and has a flag in the back pocket.

 

[Joao]

Is there a coach under more pressure next year?

No contract, more players leaving, none of note sound like coming in the other way. The fixture better be kind or he could be in some trouble by rd 8-10!

I would’ve said Hinkley but he got two years and it seems Port are happy winning home & away games.

Beverage maybe on par, Dogs seem to be very up and down and internally they’d have top 4-6 holes and would think a flag isn’t out of the question.

Simpson a little but the bar is so low they can’t get much worse, can they? Nissy is gone/going so that buys the club some space.

Goodwin will be under some pressure but he has survived Bartlett’s sniping and has a flag in the back pocket.

He's no where near the top of the list. Doubly so when he's a WA coach and the Victorian media don't care.

 

[Lach72]

He's no where near the top of the list. Doubly so when he's a WA coach and the Victorian media don't care.

I think you’re a bit too sanguine about his prospects tbh.

we get to half way next year 5-7 or worse and he’s in more trouble than the early settlers imo

 

[Joao]

I think you’re a bit too sanguine about his prospects tbh.

we get to half way next year 5-7 or worse and he’s in more trouble than the early settlers imo

There will be media scuttlebutt, my argument is that the Freo admin won't agree with it unless our performance is dire, like much worse than 5-7.

The calls to sack blokes usually come a long time before anybody gets sacked, and the media hasn't even started on JL yet.

 

[andreww90]

I’m not a massive JLO fan but I am pretty optimistic going into next year. The pieces to the puzzle are all there but we need a bit of luck to have our best 22 on the park for as long as possible.

I’m optimistic that Brodie will bounce back.

I’m optimistic that Jackson is going to continue to develop into a monster.

Another pre season in Amiss, treacy, Johnson, Erasmus, Emmett, Freddy, Chapman, Davies this is where the growth is going to come from.

Can Brayshaw, Darcy, Serong, Cox etc take themselves to another level? I think they can they seem to be a very determined bunch.

Finally fingers crossed we get a Round one home game to really get our season going.

I think Freo play finals next year earning JLo an extension.

 

[MadMac]

Drop home game to Norf or lose a derby and there definitely will be calls for his head in the media. I doubt we’ll lose those games but I also doubted we would lose to Norf this year.

Just a hypothetical scenario, we start the season 0-5, what do you reckon the reaction will be?

 

[Joao]

Drop home game to Norf or lose a derby and there definitely will be calls for his head in the media. I doubt we’ll lose those games but I also doubted we would lose to Norf this year.

Just a hypothetical scenario, we start the season 0-5, what do you reckon the reaction will be?

Media scuttlebutt.

Go 0-15 and then blokes start getting sacked.

 

[MadMac]

For the record I actually think Hinkley is the number one pick for a sacked coach next year. Extension schmextension means jack shite

 

[greatgatsby]

He's no where near the top of the list. Doubly so when he's a WA coach and the Victorian media don't care.

Sadly you’re probably right. If we’re out of contention mid-2024, the club and beaten supporters will simply point to age profiles and reset the target to 2027.

 

[Joao]

Sadly you’re probably right. If we’re out of contention mid-2024, the club and beaten supporters will simply point to age profiles and reset the target to 2027.

It's not sad, it's just reality.

I've argued at great length that list demographics are a perfectly valid reason for "poor" performance. I still haven't heard a good reason why our club is special and we should perform better than you would expect any other to do in the same demographic position.

 

[DocT]

Drop home game to Norf or lose a derby and there definitely will be calls for his head in the media. I doubt we’ll lose those games but I also doubted we would lose to Norf this year.

Just a hypothetical scenario, we start the season 0-5, what do you reckon the reaction will be?

Depends who the Fab 5 losses are to and by how much.
This year we started with a loss to St Kilda who had c60% of their best 22 injured. Then we produced the famous North fiasco. In our 3rd game at 3/4 time we were only 8 points up (and 2 scoring shots less!) against an injury riddled WCE who lost McGovern, Shuey, Witherden, Cripps and Ryan in the course of that game. We were really, really lucky to win that match. The following week we were completely outclassed by Adelaide, the game was over at 1/2 time, 10.4 to 4.4.
At the end of the season these teams finished 7th, 10th, 17th, 18th.
If we were to look like that in 2024 for the opening 5 games then I've seen enough, time for change at the top. That's my gut reaction anyway. There may be additional factors to consider at the time but they would need to be huge to change my mind.

 

[DocT]

It's not sad, it's just reality.

I've argued at great length that list demographics are a perfectly valid reason for "poor" performance. I still haven't heard a good reason why our club is special and we should perform better than you would expect any other to do in the same demographic position.

Freo 2022.

 

[Joao]

Freo 2022.

We were more experienced.

 

[Purpletown]

Drop home game to Norf or lose a derby and there definitely will be calls for his head in the media. I doubt we’ll lose those games but I also doubted we would lose to Norf this year.

Just a hypothetical scenario, we start the season 0-5, what do you reckon the reaction will be?

 

[DocT]

We were more experienced.

Let's give the surface of that comment a scratch.
Mundy was the oldest player in the league IIRC, 376 games was it? ie, on a match day, he statistically boosted the average game per player by about 14 games!!
Most of our 2022 players played in 2023 so from that perspective you could argue that the team as a whole were more experienced by a year.
Experience alone does not explain a slide from 6th to 14th, not even close.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Let's give the surface of that comment a scratch.
Mundy was the oldest player in the league IIRC, 376 games was it? ie, on a match day, he statistically boosted the average game per player by about 14 games!!
Most of our 2022 players played in 2023 so from that perspective you could argue that the team as a whole were more experienced by a year.
Experience alone does not explain a slide from 6th to 14th, not even close.

Mundy > Johnson
Lobb > Amiss
Logue > Treacy
Acres > Henry
Colyer > Sturt

There’s probably more but here are 5 examples I could think of in less than a minute of experience being replaced by youth. Claiming it’s just Mundy is fingernail deep. There is plenty of merit in the opinion our inexperience caused our regression to a reasonable degree.