Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Demonheart]

I'd rather Viney than Whitfield.

I honestly don't know who I'd prefer because I don't have the knowledge or skills to make a valid judgement, but it's nice to know that we're in control of the situation.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

I honestly don't know who I'd prefer because I don't have the knowledge or skills to make a valid judgement, but it's nice to know that we're in control of the situation.

Whitfield's a very good player, kind of in the way that Bryce Gibbs was a very good player IMO.

Not sure he'll become the best of the draft.

 

[borderbarry]

Knightmare, you have left Rodda off your list of draft players. Was that intentional, you dont consider him to be in the top 90 players, or just an error on your part? If so, where would you have placed him?

 

[ilikepotatoes]

Not sure if you all know but Tom Lee played in Fremantles intraclub preseason game. Was playing in the second string team and ended up kicking 4 goals against Zac Dawson. Outran and outmarked him many times. Played in the true full forward position and just looked like he belonged out there. IMO he would be wasted at CHF and would be a better player closer to goal. Have no doubts he could have a Podsiadly like impact if given the chance.

 

[borderbarry]

Knightmare, how do you rate the Vic Country boys,Michael Close and Josh Porter, both CHF I believe?

 

[HereIam86]

Do you reckon Grundy will go number 1 now the Giants are bottom. Sheddy has said he likes the talls.

 

[Damo80]

Whitfield's a very good player, kind of in the way that Bryce Gibbs was a very good player IMO.

Not sure he'll become the best of the draft.

Just like Cale Morton was a very good junior. And Richard Tambling was a standout junior. Like someone else mentioned, I too don't have the intimate knowledge of the games of these juniors, but I'd be inclined to take the competitive inside beast in Viney over the disposal accumulating outside mid in Whitfield... but maybe that's underselling Whitfield. I'm just picturing a Joel Selwood/Trent Cotchin tough competitive inside type vs a Morton/Tambling/Gibbs outside type (not suggesting Morton/Tambling are in the same league as Gibbs - or Whitfield - either, Blues fans!).

 

[Knightmare]

Whitfield's a very good player, kind of in the way that Bryce Gibbs was a very good player IMO.

Not sure he'll become the best of the draft.

I've probably undersold Whitfield with my description some. His inside game is developing and can win some contested ball - he clearly isn't the inside beast to the level of a Viney/Wines/Hrovat but I expect his inside game to continue to improve but is better than advertised in this regard.

I really like Gibbs' game but different type. Whitfield is a more classy Sidebottom and similar to Gaff but with more ball winning ability and an even more elite outside running and accumulating game.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, you have left Rodda off your list of draft players. Was that intentional, you dont consider him to be in the top 90 players, or just an error on your part? If so, where would you have placed him?

Without a doubt in the mix to get selected and a good one to bring up.

I find Rodda harder to place and he is one of those where I'd just like to see a couple more of his games before I settle on his draft position.

I've liked bits of his game. Good reader down back and has impressed some with his rebounding game. He is one I'm considering very strongly for a position in my ratings.

My ratings are still fluid with more footy to be played but expect Rodda to move into my 40-80 type group once I settle on my ratings.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, how do you rate the Vic Country boys,Michael Close and Josh Porter, both CHF I believe?

Not familiar with Porter.

Close has shown some as a key forward/ruckman. Through the ruck I've enjoyed some of his tackling efforts. As a key forward is that more of a mobile type. Could be a chance but likely a later draft selection.

 

[Knightmare]

Do you reckon Grundy will go number 1 now the Giants are bottom. Sheddy has said he likes the talls.

I'd expect Whitfield to go no.1 if GWS get the no.1 selection. They don't have the outside talent for my liking to go along with their promising inside group.

They've stocked up and added some nice inside mids. Time to add a high production outside player to play alongside those inside stars they have coming through.

Also with GWS I'm weary that Giles while he would be a heck of a no.2 ruck has made clear that he wants to remain the no.1 ruckman for GWS so I think it would be allot safer to add a Trent West or similar type no.2 ruck who can play some minutes without pushing Giles to play more than 20-30% forward which Grundy after some time could very well do.

My bet with Grundy is that he slides through to pick 3 and goes somewhere in the 3-6 range with Gold Coast selecting Toumpas.

 

[Knightmare]

Just like Cale Morton was a very good junior. And Richard Tambling was a standout junior. Like someone else mentioned, I too don't have the intimate knowledge of the games of these juniors, but I'd be inclined to take the competitive inside beast in Viney over the disposal accumulating outside mid in Whitfield... but maybe that's underselling Whitfield. I'm just picturing a Joel Selwood/Trent Cotchin tough competitive inside type vs a Morton/Tambling/Gibbs outside type (not suggesting Morton/Tambling are in the same league as Gibbs - or Whitfield - either, Blues fans!).

Some of the outside players particularly during the u18 champs can look better than they are with the coaches pushing players to play an open, free flowing game style. So there is the arguement that some of those outside players don't go as well as many of the inside players at AFL level and I tend to agree with this. But this year is just an outside mids year where there you can really identify the quality and depth of outside mids as the real strength this year.

Whitfield is another level talent and it's a crime to have him in the same conversation as Tambling or Morton. While both were talented juniors neither really had the character to further develop their games once in the system. Whitfield is a much stronger character and will certainly make the grade and develop into a hell of a player if he isn't already.

 

[Damo80]

Whitfield is another level talent and it's a crime to have him in the same conversation as Tambling or Morton. While both were talented juniors neither really had the character to further develop their games once in the system. Whitfield is a much stronger character and will certainly make the grade and develop into a hell of a player if he isn't already.

Thanks for your thoughts - as I said, I didn't intend to do Whitfield a disservice in throwing his name alongside a couple of those others. While he sounds like a pretty safe bet of becoming a great AFL player, part of the point I was trying to make is that hindsight would suggest that even some of the best credentialled juniors struggle to translate junior form into AFL domination for one reason or another... plus, without having seen Whitfield in person or knowing much about him, I just like the inside, competitive beasts, and on paper that's not coming thru for Whitfield as much as it does for Viney.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for your thoughts - as I said, I didn't intend to do Whitfield a disservice in throwing his name alongside a couple of those others. While he sounds like a pretty safe bet of becoming a great AFL player, part of the point I was trying to make is that hindsight would suggest that even some of the best credentialled juniors struggle to translate junior form into AFL domination for one reason or another... plus, without having seen Whitfield in person or knowing much about him, I just like the inside, competitive beasts, and on paper that's not coming thru for Whitfield as much as it does for Viney.

Good comments and I'm also an inside mids person. If the choice is there between a high level inside extractor or high level outside player I'd more often than not lean towards the inside player - for mine these types have a greater influence on winning.

There are also inside mids who seem to have been misses. Ben Cunnington really hasn't developed or shown all that much despite going top 5 in 2009 so it can go both ways. But I agree that there are more misses with outside types from early selections.

I love Jack Viney's game for many of these reasons you mentioned. He, Wines, Vlastuin or one of the other inside player could easily develop into the best from this years draft but Whitfield and Toumpas appear to be the more preferred talents by AFL clubs at this early stage.

With Whitfield I didn't really like the way he was used throughout the u18 champs and if he was played more through the midfield (was much of the time played as a forward) I expect Lachie would be being spoken about allot more positively right now and with allot more focus on how elite his endurance and work rate is and how he will slot into a team right away and be a major difference marker from round 1.

 

[Delids]

Knightmare, Troy Menzel, i would love him at punt road, what our chances, he looks very silky and great finisher, i think he maybe able to push up into the mid?
Will he slide coz of his knee? I know he has been injured but i am pretty sure he has played some decent games in the SANFL?
Any chance at punt road?

 

[chislet5]

do u think tom tyquin has scott pendlebury potential as theres not much of him yet body wise but he has height for a midfielder and seems to make time slow down with his great decision making and ball use

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, Troy Menzel, i would love him at punt road, what our chances, he looks very silky and great finisher, i think he maybe able to push up into the mid?
Will he slide coz of his knee? I know he has been injured but i am pretty sure he has played some decent games in the SANFL?
Any chance at punt road?

Whether Menzel slides will depend on how clubs evaluate his knees. Menzel is still a clear first round talent but looks like he could be available for Richmond in the first round.

Through the u18 champs Menzel played mostly up forward - and likely will start his career there but he has shown in the past that he is very capable through the midfield and long term I expect this would be the vision with Menzel.

do u think tom tyquin has scott pendlebury potential as theres not much of him yet body wise but he has height for a midfielder and seems to make time slow down with his great decision making and ball use

Tyquin has some similar traits to pendlebury as you identified but is not nearly the same level talent but then again I wouldn't bet on any of the other mids from this years draft being better than a top 2-3 league midfielder. Pendlebury stands out because of his inside game, handballing awareness, vision, composure and ability to find more time than anyone else on the field. Then with Pendlebury the other curious thing is his height for an inside midfielder.

Tyquin I'd consider to be something closer to a Billie Smedts without the defensive game or 1v1 ability - which is still pretty handy. Tyquin at his size will take time but I also like him as a mid range draft talent.

 

[BigSexc]

My bet with Grundy is that he slides through to pick 3 and goes somewhere in the 3-6 range with Gold Coast selecting Toumpas.

You're suggesting that Melbourne may pick him up? If Viney goes second round - which is looking more likely given the top end talent in this draft - i can see us taking a punt on him.

My question is do you think he can be molded into a forward like Vardy? who iirc was drafted as a ruckman but played some good footy as a forward before injury. Or is rucking his sole position?

 

[Knightmare]

You're suggesting that Melbourne may pick him up? If Viney goes second round - which is looking more likely given the top end talent in this draft - i can see us taking a punt on him.

My question is do you think he can be molded into a forward like Vardy? who iirc was drafted as a ruckman but played some good footy as a forward before injury. Or is rucking his sole position?

Grundy is certainly in the mix for Melbourne and could very well be available.

Grundy can play forward and has shown that he can have an impact there for periods up forward. Has some contested marking ability and is excellent at ground level but I wouldn't look at him as any kind of consistent target up forward, at least immediately. Should be able to have a similar impact up forward to Vardy.

I certainly wouldn't look to Grundy as a long term key forward answer though. When developed with 3-6 years in the system it would be a waste not to play him as a no.1 ruckman. It's a Naitanui type situation where you can play him forward, but why waste him forward when he will make the greatest difference through the ruck? So right now he probably comes in as the no.2 ruck and plays behind Jamar for 2-4 years with most of his minutes coming as a forward and then he takes over as the no.1 then in the scenario Melbourne draft him.

 

[shrobhouse]

Knighta, who look like being the best prospects out of this years draft from the tac cup?

 

[Daytripper]

You're forgetting one thing, or rather, one person. Mark Neeld will have the final say and he has absolutely no emotional ties with Jack Viney, all he wants is the best player available. Jack viney has also been told that it is not definite that he will end up at Melbourne.

Let's say that the teams finish in the current order. Do you honestly believe that GWS will use pick #1 on Viney? Seriously? I don't think so, by the look of their list they desperately need Grundy, it is highly unlikely they'll go for Viney instead.

That leaves GCS, who don't have a Sheedy working for them, someone who wants to stick it to Melbourne no matter what it costs his club. Let's say they do bid on Viney, that means Melbourne has the choice on Whitfield or Viney, meaning even though we have a pick after them, we're in control. Can you imagine picking up Whitfield and Toumpas in this draft? That's the scenario coming up for us.
Regardless I just can't see GCS letting Whitfield slip to #3, it just doesn't make sense to not go for the best player just to spite another club (unless you're Sheedy). Just because all the other supporters are desperate for them to bid for Viney doesn't mean it will happen, they'll do whatever is best for the own club.

Anyone who thinks GC or GWS won't bid for Viney is dreaming.

Sorry.

By all accounts he's a top 5-10 rated player. The reality is there really isn't much of a difference between picks #1 and 2 and picks 5 & 6. This has been borne out by history time and time again. All the clubs know this.

So basically there is little cost for either GC or GWS bidding for Viney with the upside being they shut out a club on the same pathway as them from receiving an extra benefit.
Its a no brainer.

Plus, the flip side being is how stupid will Melbourne look if Viney goes on to be a Joel Selwood type at GC or GWS. It would do untold damage to the club. They have already been heavily criticised for a perceived lack of loyalty. This would top it off.

 

[Demonheart]

Anyone who thinks GC or GWS won't bid for Viney is dreaming.

Sorry.

By all accounts he's a top 5-10 rated player. The reality is there really isn't much of a difference between picks #1 and 2 and picks 5 & 6. This has been borne out by history time and time again. All the clubs know this.

So basically there is little cost for either GC or GWS bidding for Viney with the upside being they shut out a club on the same pathway as them from receiving an extra benefit.
Its a no brainer.

Plus, the flip side being is how stupid will Melbourne look if Viney goes on to be a Joel Selwood type at GC or GWS. It would do untold damage to the club. They have already been heavily criticised for a perceived lack of loyalty. This would top it off.

How stupid would Melbourne look if we had the chance to get Grundy and he ends up being the best player ever and Viney ends up getting delisted in 5 years time?

Don't play hypothetical, it's pointless because no one can see what will happen in the future. I'll also pull you up on your first point. Clubs have a list of players in order of how they rate them and they pick them in that order on draft day, especially with top 5 picks. It's laughable to suggest that GCS will pass up on who they believe to be the second best player in the draft (or even the best) for a kid outside of their top 5. That's the reality.
If GCS rates Viney in the top 2 (or top 3) they'll bid on him, if they rate him outside of the top 5 they won't. It's as simple as that and nothing you can say will change it.


Give me one example when a club has used either pick 1 or 2 in the draft on a player that they rated outside of their top 5.

You're making assumptions based on something that A. has never happened before and B. is unlikely to happen. GCS and GWS will do waht's best for their own teams, not what you want them to do.

 

[Daytripper]

How stupid would Melbourne look if we had the chance to get Grundy and he ends up being the best player ever and Viney ends up getting delisted in 5 years time?

Don't play hypothetical, it's pointless because no one can see what will happen in the future. I'll also pull you up on your first point. Clubs have a list of players in order of how they rate them and they pick them in that order on draft day, especially with top 5 picks. It's laughable to suggest that GCS will pass up on who they believe to be the second best player in the draft (or even the best) for a kid outside of their top 5. That's the reality.
If GCS rates Viney in the top 2 (or top 3) they'll bid on him, if they rate him outside of the top 5 they won't. It's as simple as that and nothing you can say will change it.


Give me one example when a club has used either pick 1 or 2 in the draft on a player that they rated outside of their top 5.

You're making assumptions based on something that A. has never happened before and B. is unlikely to happen. GCS and GWS will do waht's best for their own teams, not what you want them to do.

You seem to think there is a huge gulf between picks 2 and 5. The reality is there isn't and as stated before this has been borne out in history.

2003: A Walker (2), B McLean (5), K Tenace (7)
2004: J Roughead (2), L Franklin (5). J Lewis (7)
2005: D Thomas (2), S Pendlebury (5). P Ryder (7)
2006: S Gumbleton (2), T Boak (5), J Sellwood (7)
2007: T Cotchin (2), J Grant (5), R Palmer (7)
2008: N Naitanui (2), M Hurley (5), D Rich (7)
2009: J Trengove (2), B Cunnington (5), B Shepherd (7)

The AFL draft is not like the NBA where a player picked at 1 or 2 can actually make a huge difference to a team as compared to a player picked at 5 or 7.
There are 18 players on an AFL team at any given time whereas there are only 5 on an NBA team - it stands to reason that a very good player has more impact on an NBA team than an AFL team as he accounts for 20% of the play as compared to just over 5%.

GC or GWS will bid for Viney. And Melbourne will match that bid.
Nothing is surer and all three teams would be doing the right things by their respective clubs.

 

[SugarHealey]

I'd rather Viney than Whitfield.

So would I.

 

[coryne]

You seem to think there is a huge gulf between picks 2 and 5. The reality is there isn't and as stated before this has been borne out in history.

2003: A Walker (2), B McLean (5), K Tenace (7)
2004: J Roughead (2), L Franklin (5). J Lewis (7)
2005: D Thomas (2), S Pendlebury (5). P Ryder (7)
2006: S Gumbleton (2), T Boak (5), J Sellwood (7)
2007: T Cotchin (2), J Grant (5), R Palmer (7)
2008: N Naitanui (2), M Hurley (5), D Rich (7)
2009: J Trengove (2), B Cunnington (5), B Shepherd (7)

The AFL draft is not like the NBA where a player picked at 1 or 2 can actually make a huge difference to a team as compared to a player picked at 5 or 7.
There are 18 players on an AFL team at any given time whereas there are only 5 on an NBA team - it stands to reason that a very good player has more impact on an NBA team than an AFL team as he accounts for 20% of the play as compared to just over 5%.

GC or GWS will bid for Viney. And Melbourne will match that bid.
Nothing is surer and all three teams would be doing the right things by their respective clubs.

Quick question, what would happen if BOTH GWS and GCS bidded on Viney and Melbourne DIDN'T match it ??? Would he automaticaly go to the GWS (assuming they have #1) or would the two teams have to sort it out among themselves (I suspect it would be the first option, but I don't think it has ever occured)