Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Daytripper]

Quick question, what would happen if BOTH GWS and GCS bidded on Viney and Melbourne DIDN'T match it ??? Would he automaticaly go to the GWS (assuming they have #1) or would the two teams have to sort it out among themselves (I suspect it would be the first option, but I don't think it has ever occured)

Would go to whoever had the higher bid.

Unlikely scenario though as both clubs would have worked out beforehand who was to bid for him. Unless they both thought he was a genuine #1.

 

[Knightmare]

Knighta, who look like being the best prospects out of this years draft from the tac cup?

Joe Daniher (Ess - F/S) is by a long shot the best talent in this years draft. Lachie Whitfield (likely no.1 overall selection). Jack Viney (Melb - F/S), Oliver Wines, Lachlan Plowman, Jake Stringer, Nick Vlastuin, Jonothon O'Rouke, Jackson Macrae, Kristian Jaksch and Tanner Smith all look like they will go in the first two rounds at this stage.

Rory Atkins, Nathan Wright, James Stewart (Coll - F/S), Nathan Hrovat, Jason Pongracic, Matthew Haynes and Liam McBean also look likely to feature in the early rounds of the draft.

 

[manny100]

You seem to think there is a huge gulf between picks 2 and 5. The reality is there isn't and as stated before this has been borne out in history.

2003: A Walker (2), B McLean (5), K Tenace (7)
2004: J Roughead (2), L Franklin (5). J Lewis (7)
2005: D Thomas (2), S Pendlebury (5). P Ryder (7)
2006: S Gumbleton (2), T Boak (5), J Sellwood (7)
2007: T Cotchin (2), J Grant (5), R Palmer (7)
2008: N Naitanui (2), M Hurley (5), D Rich (7)
2009: J Trengove (2), B Cunnington (5), B Shepherd (7)

The AFL draft is not like the NBA where a player picked at 1 or 2 can actually make a huge difference to a team as compared to a player picked at 5 or 7.
There are 18 players on an AFL team at any given time whereas there are only 5 on an NBA team - it stands to reason that a very good player has more impact on an NBA team than an AFL team as he accounts for 20% of the play as compared to just over 5%.

GC or GWS will bid for Viney. And Melbourne will match that bid.
Nothing is surer and all three teams would be doing the right things by their respective clubs.

Isn't that the whole point of it all. At draft day clubs chose based on ratings of players at that time without the benefit of hindsight (eg Franklin at 5, Sellwood 7 etc). If Viney is rated No 1 by the bottom team on draft day then he will be nominated No1. If they rate him on draft day as the say 3rd, 4th or 5th best player available then clearly there is some risk attached to nominating Viney at a pick below his rating. Its easy to say that its a sure thing GWS or GC will nominate him but most of us thought Geelong was a sure thing in 2008. Schwab has thrown the gauntlet down at the feet of GC and GWS by stating that Melbourne will pick according to the rating of players and that clubs nominating Viney at a better pick than what he is worth are taking a risk. He said we are not talkng about a pick 50 we are talikng the elite end of the draft.
If Viney is nominated at a pick below Melbourne's first pick it will be because a club rates him there - clubs will not play kiddies games with top picks. If Melbourne finish 2 or 3 spots higher on the ladder (this is possible) Viney definetly will be nominated as that is probably about where he is rated.

 

[Slattery_20]

I'm really not interested in the fact they said it... I'm only interested in whether they meant it, and at this point in time I'd really doubt if even the Demons know what they'll do if someone bids early. But Melbourne fans throw it up, as though it's an iron clad guarantee (a "fact", if you like) that they won't take Viney with pick 3 because it's a fact that the club has said something to that effect. I just don't buy that it's as simple as that, and think Demon's fans are trying to talk themselves into this "I'd be happy to miss out on Viney" crap. For the sake of one or two draft places (assuming he's rated 5th best player in this year's batch) I'd be spewing if it was my club.

But at the risk of derailing KM's thread, I'd say we agree to disagree

Football clubs? Lie? Never! They always go 'best available', they always get guys who are 'steals', etc etc etc.

 

[Slattery_20]

Give me one example when a club has used either pick 1 or 2 in the draft on a player that they rated outside of their top 5.

You really think a club will pick a kid up @1/2, then tell him they don't/didn't rate him? What sort of world do you live in?

 

[Daytripper]

Isn't that the whole point of it all. At draft day clubs chose based on ratings of players at that time without the benefit of hindsight (eg Franklin at 5, Sellwood 7 etc). If Viney is rated No 1 by the bottom team on draft day then he will be nominated No1. If they rate him on draft day as the say 3rd, 4th or 5th best player available then clearly there is some risk attached to nominating Viney at a pick below his rating. Its easy to say that its a sure thing GWS or GC will nominate him but most of us thought Geelong was a sure thing in 2008. Schwab has thrown the gauntlet down at the feet of GC and GWS by stating that Melbourne will pick according to the rating of players and that clubs nominating Viney at a better pick than what he is worth are taking a risk. He said we are not talkng about a pick 50 we are talikng the elite end of the draft.
If Viney is nominated at a pick below Melbourne's first pick it will be because a club rates him there - clubs will not play kiddies games with top picks. If Melbourne finish 2 or 3 spots higher on the ladder (this is possible) Viney definetly will be nominated as that is probably about where he is rated.

The reality is there isn't much difference between picks in a range of 10 or so. If Viney is rated #6, then there really isn't any difference to getting him #2 as when it come it comes down to it both picks are relatively even.

If Viney was rated #10 or below by GC or GWS then yes they would be taking a chance - but he's not.

LOL at Schwab saying they won't pick Viney. You can have 100/1 about that happening.

 

[Slattery_20]

If the Dees missed Viney, Schwab would be sacked before the next pick was taken.
You don't employ a guy's dad for two years, and pay a kid to play 18s, then pass over him because he might be "over-rated" on some theoretical ratings, by one or two picks.
They have put a lot of investment into him thus far.

 

[manny100]

If the Dees missed Viney, Schwab would be sacked before the next pick was taken.
You don't employ a guy's dad for two years, and pay a kid to play 18s, then pass over him because he might be "over-rated" on some theoretical ratings, by one or two picks.
They have put a lot of investment into him thus far.

ah, hah, and that is exactly what it is - spot on - its a gamble - do you or don't you - draft day will see how the role of the dice turn out - Schwab is doing his best to sow the seeds of doubt - is it a sure thing? - who knows for sure right now? Its one of the things which has put a bit of intriuge into this draft!! Will there be a sacking at GWS or GC if they nominate and should not have? This draft has everything!

 

[Slattery_20]

Schwab is doing his best to sow the seeds of doubt

Eeeeexactly.

And exactly 0.032 seconds after his name's called out, Schwab will be in front of a camera saying it was never in doubt, rated him #1 if not earlier, best available rather than needs, yada yada yada.

People can't recognise spin when they see it!

 

[Wargreymon90]

Is daniher a ruckman? How does he rank against Grundy?

 

[manny100]

Eeeeexactly.

And exactly 0.032 seconds after his name's called out, Schwab will be in front of a camera saying it was never in doubt, rated him #1 if not earlier, best available rather than needs, yada yada yada.

People can't recognise spin when they see it!

So you think its a gaurantee that GC or GWS will nominate Viney?

 

[Knightmare]

Is daniher a ruckman? How does he rank against Grundy?

Daniher is best used as a key forward. He can ruck also but is not dominant to the level he is as a key forward. Grundy is better ruckman.

 

[flipper83]

Thanks for the thread, was just wondering on where you would see the mini draft eligible players going if they were in this years draft since clubs will probably have to use selections from this years draft to get them.
Thanks

Power Rankings for 2013 – to give an indication of where I rank these eligible for the minidraft against those others in next year’s draft:
1. Thomas Boyd (VIC - KPF)
2. James Aish (SA - MID)
3. Luke McDonald (VIC - UTIL – NM F/S) – Minidraft eligible but likely will choose not to enter due to F/S.
4. Jesse Hogan (WA - KPF) – Minidraft eligible
5. Matt Crouch (VIC - MID) – Minidraft eligible
6. Jack Martin (WA - UTIL) – Minidraft eligible
7. Josh Kelly (VIC - MID) – Minidraft eligible
8. Jack Billings (VIC - FWD)
9. Matt Scharenberg (SA – MID/DEF)
10.Guy Dickson (VIC - FWD)

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the thread, was just wondering on where you would see the mini draft eligible players going if they were in this years draft since clubs will probably have to use selections from this years draft to get them.
Thanks

Power Rankings for 2013 – to give an indication of where I rank these eligible for the minidraft against those others in next year’s draft:
1. Thomas Boyd (VIC - KPF)
2. James Aish (SA - MID)
3. Luke McDonald (VIC - UTIL – NM F/S) – Minidraft eligible but likely will choose not to enter due to F/S.
4. Jesse Hogan (WA - KPF) – Minidraft eligible
5. Matt Crouch (VIC - MID) – Minidraft eligible
6. Jack Martin (WA - UTIL) – Minidraft eligible
7. Josh Kelly (VIC - MID) – Minidraft eligible
8. Jack Billings (VIC - FWD)
9. Matt Scharenberg (SA – MID/DEF)
10.Guy Dickson (VIC - FWD)

Boyd (1-5)
Aish (1-5)
McDonald (NM - F/S - 1st round)
Hogan (5-10)
Crouch (5-15)
Martin (1-5)
Kelly (5-20)
Billings (5-15)
Scharenberg (10-20)
Guy Dickson (unknown) - My smokie for next year who hasn't been discussed as being among the elite of next years group but has impressed me every time I've seen him and I expect with further improvement could very well move into that group. Has dominated in APS footy this year and is a Jeremy Howe clone with his leap, sticky hands and contested marking ability. Freak of the highest order and one to watch for those not familiar with him.

 

[Slattery_20]

So you think its a gaurantee that GC or GWS will nominate Viney?

I've no idea.

 

[Daytripper]

So you think its a gaurantee that GC or GWS will nominate Viney?

Absolute guarantee.

 

[coryne]

Thanks for the thread, was just wondering on where you would see the mini draft eligible players going if they were in this years draft since clubs will probably have to use selections from this years draft to get them.
Thanks

Power Rankings for 2013 – to give an indication of where I rank these eligible for the minidraft against those others in next year’s draft:
1. Thomas Boyd (VIC - KPF)
2. James Aish (SA - MID)
3. Luke McDonald (VIC - UTIL – NM F/S) – Minidraft eligible but likely will choose not to enter due to F/S.
4. Jesse Hogan (WA - KPF) – Minidraft eligible
5. Matt Crouch (VIC - MID) – Minidraft eligible
6. Jack Martin (WA - UTIL) – Minidraft eligible
7. Josh Kelly (VIC - MID) – Minidraft eligible
8. Jack Billings (VIC - FWD)
9. Matt Scharenberg (SA – MID/DEF)
10.Guy Dickson (VIC - FWD)

Boyd (1-5)
Aish (1-5)
McDonald (NM - F/S - 1st round)
Hogan (5-10)
Crouch (5-15)
Martin (1-5)
Kelly (5-20)
Billings (5-15)
Scharenberg (10-20)
Guy Dickson (unknown) - My smokie for next year who hasn't been discussed as being among the elite of next years group but has impressed me every time I've seen him and I expect with further improvement could very well move into that group. Has dominated in APS footy this year and is a Jeremy Howe clone with his leap, sticky hands and contested marking ability. Freak of the highest order and one to watch for those not familiar with him.

OK guys, with this in mind what do people think that the mini-draft picks will be worth THIS year. Last year it took pick #4 + an end of 1st rd compo pick iirc to get O'meara (plus #31). Will the GWS be able to get that sort of value out of this years mini-draft considering the strength of this years draft and the players available ???

 

[Knightmare]

OK guys, with this in mind what do people think that the mini-draft picks will be worth THIS year. Last year it took pick #4 + an end of 1st rd compo pick iirc to get O'meara (plus #31). Will the GWS be able to get that sort of value out of this years mini-draft considering the strength of this years draft and the players available ???

I'd say much the same as last year.

Jack Martin will probably require pick 4 or thereabouts so maybe Melbourne look into using their second, 1st round selection to add him. Martin would be a logical fit to add some real pace to a mostly slow midfield.

The second minidraft selection is out of Hogan/Kelly/Crouch. The more likely at this stage is Hogan who will probably worth around pick 8 - so maybe Brisbane with their 1st overall selection take Hogan if they favour him to Mason Shaw or the other key forwards in this years draft.

 

[coryne]

I'd say much the same as last year.

Jack Martin will probably require pick 4 or thereabouts so maybe Melbourne look into using their second, 1st round selection to add him. Martin would be a logical fit to add some real pace to a mostly slow midfield.

The second minidraft selection is out of Hogan/Kelly/Crouch. The more likely at this stage is Hogan who will probably worth around pick 8 - so maybe Brisbane with their 1st overall selection take Hogan if they favour him to Mason Shaw or the other key forwards in this years draft.

My main question about Melbourne taking a kid in the mini-draft this year is that he won't be able to play until 2014. Melbourne need players ASAP considering where they were expected to be this year, and where they actually are, so it wouldn't surprise me if they were ablidged to/decided to skip the mini-draft and take players from this years draft instead.

 

[Knightmare]

My main question about Melbourne taking a kid in the mini-draft this year is that he won't be able to play until 2014. Melbourne need players ASAP considering where they were expected to be this year, and where they actually are, so it wouldn't surprise me if they were ablidged to/decided to skip the mini-draft and take players from this years draft instead.

It's certainly is a possibility for Melbourne to skip the minidraft and no club necessarily needs to get involved in the minidraft bidding through trade week. Perhaps Melbourne look to trade week and work to bring in another experienced talent who can make you better now.

Why I would recommend Melbourne look into the minidraft is that Melbourne will receive two very early 1st round selections, a mid 1st round selection then Jack Viney (if things go right) in the 2nd round. That's a fair bit of talent right there this year. If the club considers Jack Martin to be a better talent than those expected to be available when entering the draft it would be logical to move one of those early 1st round selection if it means getting a better talent in. Martin certainly is a fit for the team with his pace and skills but it comes down to weighing up whether you are willing to wait the extra year.

 

[coryne]

It's certainly is a possibility for Melbourne to skip the minidraft and no club necessarily needs to get involved in the minidraft bidding through trade week. Perhaps Melbourne look to trade week and work to bring in another experienced talent who can make you better now.

Why I would recommend Melbourne look into the minidraft is that Melbourne will receive two very early 1st round selections, a mid 1st round selection then Jack Viney (if things go right) in the 2nd round. That's a fair bit of talent right there this year. If the club considers Jack Martin to be a better talent than those expected to be available when entering the draft it would be logical to move one of those early 1st round selection if it means getting a better talent in. Martin certainly is a fit for the team with his pace and skills but it comes down to weighing up whether you are willing to wait the extra year.

Then there is the question "should the GWS do what the mini-draft was intended to do and trade the picks for mature players ". I know I know, there is more chance of hell freezing over but it should still be an "option " ......

 

[LemmingMaster]

Billings (5-15)
Scharenberg (10-20)

These two guys really impressed me at the championships. I would not blink a second having Scharenberg in the top ten at the moment. Billings I think is a top 10 pick if he was allowed in this years draft, the kid is just a gun.

 

[jjami15]

The more likely at this stage is Hogan who will probably worth around pick 8 - so maybe Brisbane with their 1st overall selection take Hogan if they favour him to Mason Shaw or the other key forwards in this years draft.

It's an interesting one in regards to both these boys as it is a definite need that we need IMO. Was really excited to see both in the televised games but came away quite dissapointed. After some analysis it was evident that the forward entry into their 50 was really quite terrible especially in comparison to the Vic M boys and believe that this was the reason that they got up to win it. I would like for the lions to make a play for Hogan but just don't want to pay overs. I would also love to hear Glen Jakovich's opinion of him. He did some work with him and he would have a really interesting insight into him.

 

[Knightmare]

These two guys really impressed me at the championships. I would not blink a second having Scharenberg in the top ten at the moment. Billings I think is a top 10 pick if he was allowed in this years draft, the kid is just a gun.

I could have been more generous with the Scharenberg rating but when placing the draft eligable into that group from this years draft also you just can't fit everyone into that top 5 or top 10. Had a very good u18 champs.

Billings is a great immediate player. Haven't seen him through the midfield but have never seen him play a poor game up forward. Just such a strong mark overhead and has great 1v1 ability for his size. Very reliable set shot and field kick at goal. A bit like Mayes this year I see Billings starting out his career as a forward and with time build into the midfield rotation with his impressive skillset.

It's an interesting one in regards to both these boys as it is a definite need that we need IMO. Was really excited to see both in the televised games but came away quite dissapointed. After some analysis it was evident that the forward entry into their 50 was really quite terrible especially in comparison to the Vic M boys and believe that this was the reason that they got up to win it. I would like for the lions to make a play for Hogan but just don't want to pay overs. I would also love to hear Glen Jakovich's opinion of him. He did some work with him and he would have a really interesting insight into him.

A top 5 selection would be paying overs. Something in the pick 6-10 range is pretty reasonable to pay for Hogan and probably good value. I'd personally take Hogan over Shaw having seen the way he has gone in the first half of the season. Just depends on what the scouts at the club think.

 

[Yoda_]

Hey KM, not playing footy anymore, you going to head to any (TAC) games this week and check out the talent there?

Would love to put a face to the name..