Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Igloo]

KM, thoughts on who might big on Joe Daniher?
I realize that its a long shot but the worse we get, the further we slide and the less clubs they are beneath us. What's the exposed form re bidding? , the only similar case I can think of is Cordy, and even then he only went second round

Cordy went first round (pick 13 or 14, can't remember). There is 100% guarantee that someone will bid on him. Wouldn't be surprised if we did, Brisbane definitely would, same as St Kilda, the list goes on

 

[Turbocat]

KM, thoughts on who might big on Joe Daniher?
I realize that its a long shot but the worse we get, the further we slide and the less clubs they are beneath us. What's the exposed form re bidding? , the only similar case I can think of is Cordy, and even then he only went second round

Mate GWS or GC will bid for him with P1. Shame your dropping but you are still getting a bargain.

 

[ZAAHAARAKIS!!!!!]

Cordy went first round (pick 13 or 14, can't remember). There is 100% guarantee that someone will bid on him. Wouldn't be surprised if we did, Brisbane definitely would, same as St Kilda, the list goes on

Whoops, my bad. Who bidded for cordy?
actually the list doesn't go on that far, thats my point. if we continue to play like this, i could see us finishing 11th or 12th, which would eliminate st kilda from the bidding process. and leave brisbane, WB, Port, Melb, GWS, GC. The more we suck, the shorter that list gets. But yes it is a pipe dream to think that no one will, but a man can dream...

 

[Igloo]

Whoops, my bad. Who bidded for cordy?
actually the list doesn't go on that far, thats my point. if we continue to play like this, i could see us finishing 11th or 12th, which would eliminate st kilda from the bidding process. and leave brisbane, WB, Port, Melb, GWS, GC. The more we suck, the shorter that list gets. But yes it is a pipe dream to think that no one will, but a man can dream...

Saints put a bid in for Cordy. They knew we would definitely take him. It will be a pretty similar situation with Daniher. Everyone knows you'll take him anyway, since he's worth a lot more than wherever your pick will end up, so clubs will put bids in. Brisbane are a certainty to, imo.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, thoughts on who might big on Joe Daniher?
I realize that its a long shot but the worse we get, the further we slide and the less clubs they are beneath us. What's the exposed form re bidding? , the only similar case I can think of is Cordy, and even then he only went second round

Essendon will take Daniher 1st round anyway. It could be pick 3 overall and Essendon would take him. I consider Daniher the best talent in this years draft and is considered mostly as a top 3 selection. No chance he goes 2nd round. GWS might as well bid on Daniher with pick 1. Essendon will take him anyway. Not just because he is a f/s selection but because he's one of the best talents in this draft and will be a bargain wherever Essendon are selecting from.

 

[Damo80]

GWS might as well bid on Daniher with pick 1.

I assume a club can bid on more than one F/S player? With both Daniher and Viney in the mix, it just has me curious...

 

[Demonheart]

Even though I have Martin down at 5 in my power rankings you have to consider who I have in front of him. Whitfield who will go no.1 overall. O'Meara who is already on an AFL list. Then Daniher and Viney who will go F/S with Daniher coming into the draft later so a case could be made that Martin if in this years draft could be the no.2 overall selection which doesn't make that trade of pick 4 trade look so bad.
Additionally for say Melbourne Martin would be a very good fit. Melbourne are lacking pace and spread through the midfield and Martin could add plenty in this regard so for mine he ticks both boxes.

You have to weigh up whether you want to wait that full year. But I don't mind taking a Martin or Hogan a year early. I'd much rather have a player developing on an AFL list than in the u18s. Just being around senior AFL footballers and getting to train, prepair and learn the game in this environment is a massive edge to have over the others coming through the u18s.

Mate, I would be over the moon if we got Martin with pick 4, he is exactly what we need and the extra 12 month wait is a non-issue. Hogan looks like a beauty but my concern with him is that he is dominating now because he is just so bloody big and powerful, almost like a man playing against boys. Will he lose that advantage at the top level? I see him as a more risky pick to take underage, I'd prefer to wait and see how he goes next year.
What are the mids like from Vic who are eligible?

My best case scenario for us is to obviously get viney with our 2nd rounder (don't think it will happen though), Toumpas with pick #3, Martin #4, Garlett #14 & Viney #26.

However, would be still more than happy with any of the following: Mayes, Stringer, O'Rouke, Grundy or Wines

 

[Yoda_]

Surely Dayle Garlett at 90 odd is a misprint?

 

[DrMubutu]

KM, thoughts on who might big on Joe Daniher?
I realize that its a long shot but the worse we get, the further we slide and the less clubs they are beneath us. What's the exposed form re bidding? , the only similar case I can think of is Cordy, and even then he only went second round

Melbourne will bid pick 4.
Lock it in.

 

[scooter600x]

Mate, I would be over the moon if we got Martin with pick 4, he is exactly what we need and the extra 12 month wait is a non-issue. Hogan looks like a beauty but my concern with him is that he is dominating now because he is just so bloody big and powerful, almost like a man playing against boys. Will he lose that advantage at the top level? I see him as a more risky pick to take underage, I'd prefer to wait and see how he goes next year.
What are the mids like from Vic who are eligible?

My best case scenario for us is to obviously get viney with our 2nd rounder (don't think it will happen though), Toumpas with pick #3, Martin #4, Garlett #14 & Viney #26.

However, would be still more than happy with any of the following: Mayes, Stringer, O'Rouke, Grundy or Wines

That's what everyone said about Hawkins

 

[Knightmare]

I assume a club can bid on more than one F/S player? With both Daniher and Viney in the mix, it just has me curious...

It's not really a situation I've encountered to be certain of the rules. I'd assume only one F/S bid per selection. So if GWS bid pick 1 they can only do it for one of Daniher/Viney, so say Daniher, then Gold Coast can bid for Viney with pick 2.

Happy to be corrected through if this is not correct.

Mate, I would be over the moon if we got Martin with pick 4, he is exactly what we need and the extra 12 month wait is a non-issue. Hogan looks like a beauty but my concern with him is that he is dominating now because he is just so bloody big and powerful, almost like a man playing against boys. Will he lose that advantage at the top level? I see him as a more risky pick to take underage, I'd prefer to wait and see how he goes next year.
What are the mids like from Vic who are eligible?

This is a valid concern with Hogan and he is already very much bigger than everyone else. So questions such as: is Hogan an early bloomer? (limited future development) and is he just dominating because he is bigger than everyone else?
I think he will be ok though. His production in the colts has been unreal and I see him with his style of game as a taller Jack Darling.

 

[Demonheart]

This is a valid concern with Hogan and he is already very much bigger than everyone else. So questions such as: is Hogan an early bloomer? (limited future development) and is he just dominating because he is bigger than everyone else?
I think he will be ok though. His production in the colts has been unreal and I see him with his style of game as a taller Jack Darling.

Even as is with not much development he'd still be very useful in our forward line

cheers

 

[Footscrazy]

Hey KM, just wondering what's the rules regarding Essendon trading their 1st rd pick? At what point do they need to commit to Daniher?

 

[Igloo]

Hey KM, just wondering what's the rules regarding Essendon trading their 1st rd pick? At what point do they need to commit to Daniher?

Before trade week.

 

[Footscrazy]

Before trade week.

Cheers Igloo.

 

[Damo80]

It's not really a situation I've encountered to be certain of the rules. I'd assume only one F/S bid per selection. So if GWS bid pick 1 they can only do it for one of Daniher/Viney, so say Daniher, then Gold Coast can bid for Viney with pick 2.

Let's naively assume that those two clubs won't get together and discuss these sorts of things (as that could constitute draft tampering), and assume you are only allowed 1 F/S bid. I would imagine both would bid on Daniher, if he is the standout. Only reason they might not is if they know that a bevy of clubs will bid after them, and Essendon will match, and assume it's somewhat pointless bidding.

I reckon clubs would be able to bid on multiple f/s prospects, but my logic may be off the money.

 

[THE_GUN]

Suprised Essendon havnt released his medical report about his dodgy hamstrings & juvenile criminal record yet !

Every club from essendon down will bid on Daniher , Viney will go 2nd rnd

 

[Chris25]

I reckon clubs would be able to bid on multiple f/s prospects, but my logic may be off the money.

They can.

If GWS bid on Daniher, and Essendon choose to take him, the slate would essentially be wiped clean. And then GWS could bid again.

 

[THE_GUN]

GWS & GC owe it to the rest of the clubs to keep the bastards Honest and Bid on the Gun father sons that are undoubted top 5 players in this draft !

 

[theGav56]

Even though I have Martin down at 5 in my power rankings you have to consider who I have in front of him. Whitfield who will go no.1 overall. O'Meara who is already on an AFL list. Then Daniher and Viney who will go F/S with Daniher coming into the draft later so a case could be made that Martin if in this years draft could be the no.2 overall selection which doesn't make that trade of pick 4 trade look so bad.
Additionally for say Melbourne Martin would be a very good fit. Melbourne are lacking pace and spread through the midfield and Martin could add plenty in this regard so for mine he ticks both boxes.

You have to weigh up whether you want to wait that full year. But I don't mind taking a Martin or Hogan a year early. I'd much rather have a player developing on an AFL list than in the u18s. Just being around senior AFL footballers and getting to train, prepair and learn the game in this environment is a massive edge to have over the others coming through the u18s.

Pick 4 for pick 2 is nominally a win if that is how the players are rated, that is true. My post was actually in response to GCS potentially trading pick 2 (essentially paying top dollar to a direct rival in many ways) for a player rated pick 2.

I wonder how Melbourne are actually feeling about indigenous players with family issues right now? At the very least they must be wondering if they should be building a team with some leadership ability, especially at the very pointy end of the drafting process. Toumpas seems to tick the leadership box. Will Martin's value be reduced due to his circumstances as seemed to happen with Darling? If I was Melbourne I would be looking for as much certainty as I could get my hands on.

Waiting a year for some clubs may indeed be a non-issue, but getting a player who can bring some immediate hope would be a good thing at Melbourne right now. The age difference between Toumpas and Martin is marginal. Martin would be developing on an AFL list if chosen. Toumpas would be developing on the MCG.

 

[saintsrfreak]

What kind of player does Mayes compare to?

 

[Knightmare]

GWS & GC owe it to the rest of the clubs to keep the bastards Honest and Bid on the Gun father sons that are undoubted top 5 players in this draft !

I expect they will. Daniher certainly won't slip through and I can't see them letting Viney through either.

Pick 4 for pick 2 is nominally a win if that is how the players are rated, that is true. My post was actually in response to GCS potentially trading pick 2 (essentially paying top dollar to a direct rival in many ways) for a player rated pick 2.

I wonder how Melbourne are actually feeling about indigenous players with family issues right now? At the very least they must be wondering if they should be building a team with some leadership ability, especially at the very pointy end of the drafting process. Toumpas seems to tick the leadership box. Will Martin's value be reduced due to his circumstances as seemed to happen with Darling? If I was Melbourne I would be looking for as much certainty as I could get my hands on.

Waiting a year for some clubs may indeed be a non-issue, but getting a player who can bring some immediate hope would be a good thing at Melbourne right now. The age difference between Toumpas and Martin is marginal. Martin would be developing on an AFL list if chosen. Toumpas would be developing on the MCG.

Martin is a different talent to Darling. Hogan is probably the more similar to Darling. Martin is more a talent of the Bennell variety.

Melbourne will get leadership in Viney. If any club needs leadership I'd say Gold Coast might need it even more. GWS have had a unique way of accumulating leadership with all these 30+ year old players and through this have helped fast-track the development of some of the younger group. Gold Coast probably need this development more and because of it will (or probably should be) gunning for Viney/Toumpas first.

But most likely Jack Martin will go to one of Gold Coast/ Melbourne. Collingwood are that other club who could enter the mix if Cloke leaves.

What kind of player does Mayes compare to?

Mayes is a pretty unique talent with his combination of kicking ability, pace and marking ability. Not a particular player closely compares to Mayes but he most resembles Steve Johnson with his elite kicking and with some luck will develop into a relatively similar player.

 

[theGav56]

Martin is a different talent to Darling. Hogan is probably the more similar to Darling. Martin is more a talent of the Bennell variety.

Melbourne will get leadership in Viney. If any club needs leadership I'd say Gold Coast might need it even more. GWS have had a unique way of accumulating leadership with all these 30+ year old players and through this have helped fast-track the development of some of the younger group. Gold Coast probably need this development more and because of it will (or probably should be) gunning for Viney/Toumpas first.

But most likely Jack Martin will go to one of Gold Coast/ Melbourne. Collingwood are that other club who could enter the mix if Cloke leaves.



Mayes is a pretty unique talent with his combination of kicking ability, pace and marking ability. Not a particular player closely compares to Mayes but he most resembles Steve Johnson with his elite kicking and with some luck will develop into a relatively similar player.

I understand what you are saying, but the Darling reference is nothing to do with the player type, it is to do with character.

If I was a Demons supporter I would see;

Toumpas
Mayes/Grundy/Viney
Kennedy/Stringer/Garlett/Menzel
Viney

having a really solid ring to it, and I wouldn't be putting anything into the mix that reduces that. There is also some nice skill and x-factor in those players which is a part of what Martin brings. It sounds like Martin can be a terrific player, and I hope it turns out that way. But it is not the right time for that club to be taking risks.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Hey Knightmare. With Carlton now finishing somewhere in the vacinity of pick 12 to possibly 16. What player/s do you think will be available and what might we choose?

 

[rhaz]

Tom Grimes - any thoughts KM? Noticed he is a brother of Jack and Dylan and is invited to the combine.