Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[sonofabeams]

Hey KM Do you think Blake Acres will be available with the lions 2nd pick? He missed under 18s due to a shoulder injury in your knowledge is this this something that could concern clubs?

 

[sonofabeams]

Hey KM Do you think Blake Acres will be available with the lions 2nd pick? He missed under 18s due to a shoulder injury in your knowledge is this this something that could concern clubs?

 

[Knightmare]

Did Salem do much at the champs? Was one of those I was looking out for in the two VM televised games, but didn't see him a lot (noted that he was tagging Aish in one of them).

He was ok but not one of the absolute standouts.

He kicked a goal a game but only had the 61 disposals over the 4 games.

Only the 3 tackles over the 4 games.

I was expecting better.

Hey KM Do you think Blake Acres will be available with the lions 2nd pick? He missed under 18s due to a shoulder injury in your knowledge is this this something that could concern clubs?

I think Acres most likely goes somewhere late 1st round but you can't count out the possibility.

Injury and lack of exposure probably means he goes lower than he should. But I still see him as a first rounder.

Injuries don't worry me personally. Judd and Joel Selwood are those prime examples of guys who had their injury questions coming in, Judd with his shoulders but then turned out to be draft day bargains.

It's just getting a gauge on where he sits against the rest for me personally is the slight challenge but he's a clear top 20 prospect in my mind and someone I'd be willing to pick around that pick 15 mark if available.

 

[Knightmare]

Better performed? Named BOG in three of his five games, in the bests in four of his five games. Multiple goals in three of his five games and 6+ tackles in three of his games too. Won't find many weaknesses in Salem's game and his performances certainly stack up with the best given the way he uses the ball along with his hardness and goal sense.

He's a relatively strong all rounder. I agree. I'm just not seeing his point of difference.

He's got physicality and when he connects his tackles he lands them and does damage.

But his footskills while excellent at this level I'd only class as above average. Pace again good at this level but again only just above average.

I'd just like to see a trick that really sets him apart in the extreme as you see with Boyd with his presence and marking. Aish with his class and ball use. McDonald with that kick and linebreaking ability.
His calling card is that physicality which I really like but he's still lacking that one something that puts him above and beyond that next prospect in line and is more someone who can be a component of a successful team than someone who can be a difference maker for a team.

 

[Sin City]

You're under rating his kicking, it's in the top few in this draft. His breakaway speed is exceptional, who have you ever seen catch him? His other strong point is his goal sense, can slot them from anywhere.

 

[Masto]

Rory Lobb at 19? You're out of your mind.

 

[Deanos]

Does anyone know where Shannon Taylor was playing this year? and How he went?

 

[Richo83]

Salem I have in the same boat where he hasn't dominated games enough and while he's hit the scoreboard plenty others are doing more every week with guys like Crouch getting 30-45 disposals every week and L.Taylor another who gets 30+ disposals every week. Then you look at Salem and Freeman who get 10-30 disposals per game with that same consistent dominance not there.

I think you're being a bit unfair. How many goals did Crouch kick? Salem isn't your Boyd type accumulator, but how many players rack up the stats? Goodes doesn't, neither does Dangerfield.

Salem only averaged 23 touches from 5 games, but he did kick 8 goals and averaged more than 5 tackles. He averaged about the same amount of touches as Bontempelli.

 

[Knightmare]

I think you're being a bit unfair. How many goals did Crouch kick? Salem isn't your Boyd type accumulator, but how many players rack up the stats? Goodes doesn't, neither does Dangerfield.

Salem only averaged 23 touches from 5 games, but he did kick 8 goals and averaged more than 5 tackles. He averaged about the same amount of touches as Bontempelli.

It depends entirely on what you look for in draft prospects and how you see their games. Salem is a component to a team, Crouch is a critical piece to a midfield with his dominance inside the contest even though he doesn't offer that same scoreboard impact or offer that same versatility as a Salem.

You're not wrong about Bontempelli. Just the difference between he is Salem is that Bontempelli is 192cm, a later bloomer, has a later year birthday, has some excellent footballing genes as the cousin of Dal Santo. He's an upside selection in a similar way to Salem with neither round 1 players but with Bontempelli an upside selection with more reason to be optimistic which is why I'd pick him higher than his performance suggests he probably should.

 

[Knightmare]

Rory Lobb at 19? You're out of your mind.

Tall, from a basketball background. Has shown he can be an effective tap ruckman but also followup well and take a grab. He's still light and will need to get stronger before he is ready to play but despite being a couple of years older he's one a club will probably take earlier than anticipated with some nice traits and strong form in the WAFL.

He's my pick for the first slightly older recruit selected with Dayle Garlett's stocks dropping.

 

[Richo83]

It depends entirely on what you look for in draft prospects and how you see their games. Salem is a component to a team, Crouch is a critical piece to a midfield with his dominance inside the contest even though he doesn't offer that same scoreboard impact or offer that same versatility as a Salem.

I disagree. Sure, Couch racks up the disposals, but he's almost entirely inside, isn't amazing athletically, not an amazing kick and I wonder about his upside. One wonders whether he'll become a complete midfielder. Salem doesn't get 30 disposals, what he does do is that he uses the ball very well, he's good defensively and offensively, that's fairly rare in teenagers. Hodge only averaged about 22 touches this season but had a wonderful year. I think Salem could easily become a star.

You're not wrong about Bontempelli. Just the difference between he is Salem is that Bontempelli is 192cm, a later bloomer, has a later year birthday, has some excellent footballing genes as the cousin of Dal Santo. He's an upside selection in a similar way to Salem with neither round 1 players but with Bontempelli an upside selection with more reason to be optimistic which is why I'd pick him higher than his performance suggests he probably should.

Sure, Bontempelli is 192cm, so was Cale Morton. Bontempelli is still fairly raw and inconsistent. Salem has a fair bit of versatility, and has a nice frame. With the game moving towards bigger midfielders and versatile midfielders who can play a number of roles, Salem could be really handy. His defensive skills could make him a great defender, and he'd be a tough matchup up forward. He probably needs to work on his tank but that's manageable.

 

[Knightmare]

I disagree. Sure, Couch racks up the disposals, but he's almost entirely inside, isn't amazing athletically, not an amazing kick and I wonder about his upside. One wonders whether he'll become a complete midfielder. Salem doesn't get 30 disposals, what he does do is that he uses the ball very well, he's good defensively and offensively, that's fairly rare in teenagers. Hodge only averaged about 22 touches this season but had a wonderful year. I think Salem could easily become a star.




Sure, Bontempelli is 192cm, so was Cale Morton. Bontempelli is still fairly raw and inconsistent. Salem has a fair bit of versatility, and has a nice frame. With the game moving towards bigger midfielders and versatile midfielders who can play a number of roles, Salem could be really handy. His defensive skills could make him a great defender, and he'd be a tough matchup up forward. He probably needs to work on his tank but that's manageable.

Cale Morton is just another Morton. Talent a plenty but as a Morton you know he's not going to max out that potential and live up to that top four draft selection.

Bontempelli isn't Cale the person so you'd hope for a better outcome.

Hodge may only have averaged 20 odd disposals back in his time but he played mostly off a back flank and that was back in more a long kicking, lower possession time where teams and individuals would not average those same numbers per game.

You are right Salem does have the two way game which I agree and I've continually commented is unusual for a guy at this level and something that relatively does set him appart.

Just on his comparison against Crouch, Crouch isn't an elite runner and he's accumulating 30-45 disposals and 5-9 tackles every game. Once he builds that endurance in a professional environment he has the opportunity to become someone who can find more of it outside the contest.

Additionally look at those recent pure inside guys. Those selected early consistently prove to be value guys and their talents translate with that ability to win your own footy something as we've seen with Wines and Toby Greene these past two seasons something that translates. Crouch is another of that same dominant inside player variety.

 

[Richo83]

I'd pick Salem over Greene any day, Greene is a turnover merchant. The Hodge stat was for this year as well, not just past years. Plenty of players have become guns averaging around 23-25 touches. Have a look at Dangerfield's numbers this year, around 22 touches yet still elite.

 

[Masto]

Tall, from a basketball background. Has shown he can be an effective tap ruckman but also followup well and take a grab. He's still light and will need to get stronger before he is ready to play but despite being a couple of years older he's one a club will probably take earlier than anticipated with some nice traits and strong form in the WAFL.

He's my pick for the first slightly older recruit selected with Dayle Garlett's stocks dropping.

I'd be shocked if he went in the first 2 rounds and surprised if he went before the 4th. He's not even the best ruck prospect from the WAFL.

 

[Knightmare]

I'd pick Salem over Greene any day, Greene is a turnover merchant. The Hodge stat was for this year as well, not just past years. Plenty of players have become guns averaging around 23-25 touches. Have a look at Dangerfield's numbers this year, around 22 touches yet still elite.

Apologies. I assumed your comments were on Hodge the junior. This year he's had his inconsistencies but again he's playing mostly as a back flanker.

The difference with Dangerfield is that he does it all inside the contest which in addition to that breakaway speed but then damaging kick makes him the dominant player he is.

Salem doesn't find that same inside ball is a relative shorter guy who isn't in the same conversation as a contested ball winner and he's not nearly as explosive either. The contested ball winning and breakaway speed is Dangerfield's calling card.

Salem isn't in that same category and doesn't show signs of getting to nearly that same level. He's more like Geelong's Taylor Hunt which is more who I think he'll become at the next level - component of a winning team who can play a role, but he's no star.

It's something that in hindsight can be looked at but that's my feel for Salem and that's the expectation I'd put on him. If he develops into a star that's a bonus, but it's not what I'm betting on.

 

[Richo83]

Apologies. I assumed your comments were on Hodge the junior. This year he's had his inconsistencies but again he's playing mostly as a back flanker.

So why couldn't Salem play as a half back flanker? He has a nice kick and knows how to defend.

The difference with Dangerfield is that he does it all inside the contest which in addition to that breakaway speed but then damaging kick makes him the dominant player he is.

Salem doesn't find that same inside ball is a relative shorter guy who isn't in the same conversation as a contested ball winner and he's not nearly as explosive either. The contested ball winning and breakaway speed is Dangerfield's calling card.

Okay then, what about Jordan Lewis? Not overly quick, not an amazing kick, but a very good player without many faults. Or Rory Sloane who only averaged 23.5 touches. Or Brad Ebert who only averaged 23.1. All these players are worthy of a top ten pick, and Salem is fairly analogous to all these players in terms of what he's likely to become.

Salem isn't in that same category and doesn't show signs of getting to nearly that same level. He's more like Geelong's Taylor Hunt which is more who I think he'll become at the next level - component of a winning team who can play a role, but he's no star.

It's something that in hindsight can be looked at but that's my feel for Salem and that's the expectation I'd put on him. If he develops into a star that's a bonus, but it's not what I'm betting on.

Hunt is a tagger who has kicked 16 goals from 56 games. I'd be surprised if Salem regressed to Hunt's standard. I don't ever remember Hunt being this good a prospect as a teenager.

 

[Knightmare]

I suspect I have a lower expectation of the players in this years draft than you do Richo.

Not many stars or franchise faces looming this year outside of the obvious few consensus top end talents and 2-3 others.

 

[Richo83]

I suspect I have a lower expectation of the players in this years draft than you do Richo.

Not many stars or franchise faces looming this year outside of the obvious few consensus top end talents and 2-3 others.

Sure, people will always disagree on the strength of the draft, but I think the issue is that you rate Salem in a somewhat unfair manner. You compare Crouch and Salem on disposal numbers but not say goals. You rate Bontempelli higher because he's taller, even though there are plenty of outside players around six foot. IF and I stress if Salem can improve his tank, he'll be able to get on the end of a number of contests and become a damaging weapon. I know that Salem has flaws but you're criticising him unfairly.

 

[Dr Awkward]

If it's not a strong draft I'll be pretty happy for us to use our pick 11 to try and get Adams and miss out on Salem.

 

[Knightmare]

After those first few it comes down to interpretation. In my power rankings numbers 8-25 I rate evenly and it's only when they are in the different categories on my rankings that I see the talents as being on different levels.

So Salem I wouldn't rate far behing Scharenberg or Kelly despite where they likely get drafted on draft day and in fact in my power rankings to be updated I have Salem just ahead of Kelly.

 

[Richo83]

After those first few it comes down to interpretation. In my power rankings numbers 8-25 I rate evenly and it's only when they are in the different categories on my rankings that I see the talents as being on different levels.

So Salem I wouldn't rate far behing Scharenberg or Kelly despite where they likely get drafted on draft day and in fact in my power rankings to be updated I have Salem just ahead of Kelly.

You have Kelly and Scharenberg ranked fairly low though, most would rank them higher. I understand your point about tough inside midfielders but it seems like people are criticising Salem for being a safe pick as opposed to being the best pick, I see Crouch as fairly similar. Then again, he could turn out to be Rhys Palmer the second which shows that every player comes with risks. I also think that part of the reason why Crouch gets so much of the ball is that Ballarat's midfield is not that good.

 

[Chris25]

I'd be quite surprised if Salem didn't get picked before Crouch. Looks more suited to the game in my opinion, has some 'weapons' and that extra versatility that clubs like - can play through the midfield, or as a flanker at either end. Whereas Crouch is a midfielder, and that's it. Plus, I'd take 20 touches from Salem over 30 from Crouch.

But hey, I have them both in the 10-20 range so maybe I'm underrating both.

 

[Chris25]

Km, who do you think is the best tagged available in 3rd round or more?

Look for Thomas Hodgson out of WA. Has played more as a half back this year, but I have this sneaking suspicion that clubs will look to make him into a tagger in the midfield. He has the size and apparenty mindset for it.

 

[texdog]

Look for Thomas Hodgson out of WA. Has played more as a half back this year, but I have this sneaking suspicion that clubs will look to make him into a tagger in the midfield. He has the size and apparenty mindset for it.

What round do you see him going at and what round would you take him if you were list manager?

 

[aussierulesrules]

I'd be shocked if he went in the first 2 rounds and surprised if he went before the 4th. He's not even the best ruck prospect from the WAFL.

Did you see this article on him the other day?:

"Largely unknown big man Rory Lobb has soared into first round calculations despite playing only nine senior games in his first serious season of football in the WAFL.

Swan Districts senior coach Greg Harding described the late-bloomer as "the perfect package", given his exemplary attitude and athleticism, and said "every AFL club is interested in him".

Given his lack of previous football experience, Lobb's emergence has staggered talent-watchers, who halve flocked to Perth to gauge his performance in the past two months."

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...uckman-rory-lobb/story-fn69a32t-1226722272891