Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Balony_pony16]

[Waiting impatiently for Knight to update post Trade week]

 

[Knightmare]

KM who are your 2013 Draft sliders? i.e. Who's in the running for the Brodie Grundy Award?

Aish will be a popular choice if he slides to pick 6.

My pick for draft slider is Matt Crouch. He won't go inside the top 10 and will go somewhere in the 10-20 range on draft day. He's the second best in this draft as far as I'm concerned and his upside is I believe very much underrated.

He'll be first to the ball every time and has the smarts to accumulate unfathomable numbers when he despite his average-below average endurance. Once he builds up his endurance he can become one of the elite midfielders of the competition which I can't say for many in this draft.

Blake Acres is the other I feel very strongly about and while he's not really a slider as someone who was never really a consensus top 10 selection I expect him to become one of the very best in this draft and punch well above whatever his draft position eventually is.

 

[Masto]

Aish will be a popular choice if he slides to pick 6.

My pick for draft slider is Matt Crouch. He won't go inside the top 10 and will go somewhere in the 10-20 range on draft day. He's the second best in this draft as far as I'm concerned and his upside is I believe very much underrated.

He'll be first to the ball every time and has the smarts to accumulate unfathomable numbers when he despite his average-below average endurance. Once he builds up his endurance he can become one of the elite midfielders of the competition which I can't say for many in this draft.

Blake Acres is the other I feel very strongly about and while he's not really a slider as someone who was never really a consensus top 10 selection I expect him to become one of the very best in this draft and punch well above whatever his draft position eventually is.

Agree about Acres although he does come with a degree of risk due to injury and lack of exposed form. He just has that Fyfe feel about him, a rangy mid with a touch of class and underexposed form.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Aish will be a popular choice if he slides to pick 6.

My pick for draft slider is Matt Crouch. He won't go inside the top 10 and will go somewhere in the 10-20 range on draft day. He's the second best in this draft as far as I'm concerned and his upside is I believe very much underrated.

He'll be first to the ball every time and has the smarts to accumulate unfathomable numbers when he despite his average-below average endurance. Once he builds up his endurance he can become one of the elite midfielders of the competition which I can't say for many in this draft.

Blake Acres is the other I feel very strongly about and while he's not really a slider as someone who was never really a consensus top 10 selection I expect him to become one of the very best in this draft and punch well above whatever his draft position eventually is.

I would be over the moon if crouch lasts to lions pick 22...any chance of that happening? Also, how far you you see dunstan sliding?

 

[eth-dog]

Hey Knightmare, dons have lost quite a bit of KPF depth and have no ruckmen other than Paddy and T-Bell so I think they'll be the two biggest areas we want to fix, who would the KPF's between 20-30 be? And the ruckmen between 45-60? Would prefer a mature aged ruckman from the VFL/WAFL/SANFL at 55 rather than your u/18 player.

 

[Balony_pony16]

knight.... considering the lions are stacked with draft picks do you see them as a real possibility to draft Gartlett?

 

[Knightmare]

What about now that the trade period is over?

Given that we most likely wouldn't have used picks 41 and 59 in the draft (as we're only likely to have 3 live picks), we effectively traded McEvoy for Longer, Savage, Bruce and upgrades on picks 24 and 25 to 18 and 19.

OUT: McEvoy (and picks 41 and 59)
IN: Longer, Savage, Bruce, upgrade of 24 to 19 and upgrade of 25 to 18.

Short term it hurts.

Long term I have mixed feelings but more good than bad with some strong pickups who can be useful pieces going forward.

Losing Dal Santo as a free agent isn't fun and same story with McEvoy. From a leadership standpoint it's concerning with McEvoy gone even if I don't evaluate him as one of the better ruckman.

Some good long term pieces added though. Longer firstly was an excellent get and was worth pick 18.
Delaney is a pickup who I feel hasn't been spoken about enough. He was excellent in the VFL for North Melbourne and while he's not a guaranteed high level key defender I think he has the opportunity to go very well if he can get some stability around him down back. Savage can be a regular.
Bruce I'm not as high on but payed around the expected price and is another logical addition.

A great read as always - is your draft order who you believe are the best players in order or who you think each team will take?

I think GWS will take Boyd and Kelly,
Saints - Billings
Dogs - Aish
Suns - KK.

Bontempelli, McCarthy, McDonald, Scharenberg and Salem making up the top 10.

My draft order is my view of who I believe the clubs will take.

It will look very different next update either tomorrow/Sunday.

Hey Knighty your power ratings and High level and components of a winning team ratings are they in order? You have them numbered from 1 to 50

ie: Are they your personal ratings and the actual Phantom is where you think other clubs will take them?

You have interpreted correctly.

My power rankings are where I rate the draft prospects.

My phantom draft is who I have them going to is my guess of where guys will land.

 

[Knightmare]

Agree about Acres although he does come with a degree of risk due to injury and lack of exposed form. He just has that Fyfe feel about him, a rangy mid with a touch of class and underexposed form.

I'm not so concerned about injuries.

Fyfe is a little different. All things said and done still probably the better player but Acres is the much better user of the footy by foot and much more classy with Fyfe despite the rest of his game being excellent not so good.

I would be over the moon if crouch lasts to lions pick 22...any chance of that happening? Also, how far you you see dunstan sliding?

Crouch won't last that late unless he really interviewed badly.

He should be top 20 and I'd be exceptionally surprised to see him available beyond that.

Dunstan may be available at 22. Not guaranteed and deserves to go well inside the top 20 but it's more plausible.

Hey Knightmare, dons have lost quite a bit of KPF depth and have no ruckmen other than Paddy and T-Bell so I think they'll be the two biggest areas we want to fix, who would the KPF's between 20-30 be? And the ruckmen between 45-60? Would prefer a mature aged ruckman from the VFL/WAFL/SANFL at 55 rather than your u/18 player.

Essendon aren't in a bad place with either position.

Bellchambers and Ryder are both high level no.1 ruckmen. If one is missing and goes down with injury the other can carry the load and have Daniher step into that no.2 ruck role pretty easily and play the minimal relief minutes.

Then up forward Daniher, Hurley, Carlisle.
Bellchambers and Ryder can both spend minutes up forward. Get an injury to a Hurley or Carlisle and the other can swing forward and cover the other pretty easily.

A Ben Brown is an example of a choice who could be selected as a depth guy who could help that situation as a mature key forward who can also play some ruck minutes as required.
Otherwise probably waiting till next year is the best option.

Mark Seaby could be an option if looking for a more mature ruck depth option of the David Hille variety.

An u18 player isn't going to help you next year. They'll take 4 years to develop. If you go young, go young next year when there are some better tall options (both ruck and key forward) available next year.

Personally I'd just wait a year and role with what you have and hope the team stay healthy. There are enough players who can cover for one another for Essendon to live through it this year. Perhaps a Seaby or Brown as a rookie if there but I'd in Essendon's situation be looking for the best available guys who can potentially become best 22 next year or as close as possible with an eye to the flag with a top 4 position in my view not only plausible but probable in Essendon's situation with all those young developing talls only going to get better and that Chapman guy handy in his own right.
Don't mind that Edwards guy either. With his pace he has the opportunity to become a regular on that team.

knight.... considering the lions are stacked with draft picks do you see them as a real possibility to draft Gartlett?

Garlett wants to go to a Victorian team so I'd say probably not.

 

[eth-dog]

Essendon aren't in a bad place with either position.

Bellchambers and Ryder are both high level no.1 ruckmen. If one is missing and goes down with injury the other can carry the load and have Daniher step into that no.2 ruck role pretty easily and play the minimal relief minutes.

Then up forward Daniher, Hurley, Carlisle.
Bellchambers and Ryder can both spend minutes up forward. Get an injury to a Hurley or Carlisle and the other can swing forward and cover the other pretty easily.

A Ben Brown is an example of a choice who could be selected as a depth guy who could help that situation as a mature key forward who can also play some ruck minutes as required.
Otherwise probably waiting till next year is the best option.

Mark Seaby could be an option if looking for a more mature ruck depth option of the David Hille variety.

An u18 player isn't going to help you next year. They'll take 4 years to develop. If you go young, go young next year when there are some better tall options (both ruck and key forward) available next year.

Personally I'd just wait a year and role with what you have and hope the team stay healthy. There are enough players who can cover for one another for Essendon to live through it this year. Perhaps a Seaby or Brown as a rookie if there but I'd in Essendon's situation be looking for the best available guys who can potentially become best 22 next year or as close as possible with an eye to the flag with a top 4 position in my view not only plausible but probable in Essendon's situation with all those young developing talls only going to get better and that Chapman guy handy in his own right.
Don't mind that Edwards guy either. With his pace he has the opportunity to become a regular on that team.

Beautiful thing is that they're both developing their forward games as well. Bellchambers kicked 28 goals this season, Paddy kicked 10. If they can develop even further we could be looking at 45-50 goals between them.

Thanks for the choices, hopefully we get one of them

 

[captainrich]

I'm not so concerned about injuries.



Dunstan may be available at 22. Not guaranteed and deserves to go well inside the top 20 but it's more plausible.

if dunstan was available after pick 20 he would surely go at 21 to port adelaide

 

[Yoda_]

Blake Acres is the other I feel very strongly about and while he's not really a slider as someone who was never really a consensus top 10 selection I expect him to become one of the very best in this draft and punch well above whatever his draft position eventually is.

Can he slide to 26 Knightmare?

 

[Knightmare]

Beautiful thing is that they're both developing their forward games as well. Bellchambers kicked 28 goals this season, Paddy kicked 10. If they can develop even further we could be looking at 45-50 goals between them.

Thanks for the choices, hopefully we get one of them

It's a great situation for Essendon with that flexibility. Not unlike West Coast with Cox and Naitanui. Then similarly a quantity of excellent key forwards.

if dunstan was available after pick 20 he would surely go at 21 to port adelaide

Port may like some other South Australians available. Dumont, Battersby. There is other quality South Australian talent. But certainly if available at 21 would be one of the logical choices.

Can he slide to 26 Knightmare?

Acres is more likely to rise than fall but should go somewhere in the teens.

I can't see him lasting past the mid-late teens.

 

[TerryWallet]

Can he slide to 26 Knightmare?

I think he won't slide past #11

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

really interested where Dumont way go. His 1st half of the SANFL GF might have boosted his stocks a little. Little competition between a few of the SA lads as to what order they might go in.

 

[Yoda_]

Just a little aside Knightmare, but I doubt the Suns would take Dave Mirra after taking essentially the same player last year in the PSD (Leigh Osborne).

Some people say this isn't a deep draft, but if players like Ben Cavarra and Same Heavyside aren't being picked up then there is still plenty of talent left for the rookie list.

 

[Knightmare]

really interested where Dumont way go. His 1st half of the SANFL GF might have boosted his stocks a little. Little competition between a few of the SA lads as to what order they might go in.

The attention Dumont received was minimal which helped but he performed well on the day and has done well in his SANFL senior games.

He may have improved his draft stocks slight but he's still a 15-25 type selection.

Just a little aside Knightmare, but I doubt the Suns would take Dave Mirra after taking essentially the same player last year in the PSD (Leigh Osborne).

Some people say this isn't a deep draft, but if players like Ben Cavarra and Same Heavyside aren't being picked up then there is still plenty of talent left for the rookie list.

GC have still expressed an interest in adding more experienced defenders. They added nothing during free agency/trade week so if the right option comes along it wouldn't shock me.

This year there are really only 30-40 clubs would be prepaired to take in the national draft but there are some you'd take pretty happily as rookies. Cavarra and Heavyside with what they've produced are better than many of the projects with their consistent play these past two seasons.

 

[Yoda_]

GC have still expressed an interest in adding more experienced defenders. They added nothing during free agency/trade week so if the right option comes along it wouldn't shock me.

This year there are really only 30-40 clubs would be prepaired to take in the national draft but there are some you'd take pretty happily as rookies. Cavarra and Heavyside with what they've produced are better than many of the projects with their consistent play these past two seasons.

Wouldnt surprise me to see them go down the DFA path if that is the case.


I keep thinking back to those few games that Heavyside played in the VFL and did really really well whilst I agree with your thoughts on Cavarra, his numbers stack up as well as any.

 

[Davo-27]

Blake Acres is the other I feel very strongly about and while he's not really a slider as someone who was never really a consensus top 10 selection I expect him to become one of the very best in this draft and punch well above whatever his draft position eventually is.

glad you said this as I rate him as a top 5 pick, hoping to hell he drops to 24 for us...

 

[Swanhotels]

Knightmare, swans have said they are going to use 5 picks, who do you think they will target? I'm thinking Rory Lobb is a serious chance if being picked up with their second selection and possibly Taylor with their first selection.

 

[cotter101]

Other prospects:


Isaac Conway (QLD – Mid- Brisbane)
Height: 183cm, Weight: 85kg, DOB: 29/05/1995
Recruited from: Aspley
Style: Brock McLean
Player comparison:
Range: Rookie
Profile: Conway is a strong bodied inside midfielder with real size on his frame. He’s a real stoppage specialist and will win those clearances consistently. He is a big inside ball winner who will win all the inside footy and distribute by hand effectively. His tackling game strong and he will make his tackles stick. His two way game is good and he can play a shutdown role when required. His endurance is good but pace below average. As is the case with many of these strong bodied inside midfielders he lacks any outside game and his footskills need a lot of work but there is something there and with time on an AFL list can iron out his game because inside the contest he’s a natural.

Just on Conway, It's worth noting he only ran 11 something in the beep test. As a midfielder that clearly is not good enough. There are 15 year old kids who could run that. But I hear the state testing in Queensland was all done in a 3 hour period or something. Mind you it is a lot hotter up there.

I have noticed him drop off a few times in games. But there's also been games where has dominated the whole way through.

Still hoping we pick him up as a rookie. Does have the potential to become a good inside midfielder. A few Queensland boys seem to look very promising as 17 year olds, but seem to drop off the following year, I don't believe Conway is one of them. Performed very well in the reserves grand final for Aspley against us. Arguably BOG in the first half. Played his natural position as an inside midfielder for most of the game. At least shows he can play to a high standard against some AFL listed boys.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, swans have said they are going to use 5 picks, who do you think they will target? I'm thinking Rory Lobb is a serious chance if being picked up with their second selection and possibly Taylor with their first selection.

If I was Sydney while I haven't heard anything I'd firstly make drafting Mark Seaby a priority and look to either make him my no.1 ruckman or at least my no.1 depth ruck option with Sydney going all in for these next few seasons after the Buddy acquisition. Just have that one locked away with a late pick.

Lobb could be an option from the second round. It depends on how much Sydney like his talent or whether it would be easier to take someone as a free agent or cheaply at the trade table next year or in a future season.

First round is a best available selection in most cases. Darcy Gardiner if there would both fill a need and provide strong value which would appeal with his long term key defence potential. Taylor while it's possible is likely gone by the time Sydney pick and more likely if looking for a quick, small midfielder Billy Hartung would be the more likely pick.

Just on Conway, It's worth noting he only ran 11 something in the beep test. As a midfielder that clearly is not good enough. There are 15 year old kids who could run that. But I hear the state testing in Queensland was all done in a 3 hour period or something. Mind you it is a lot hotter up there.

I have noticed him drop off a few times in games. But there's also been games where has dominated the whole way through.

Still hoping we pick him up as a rookie. Does have the potential to become a good inside midfielder. A few Queensland boys seem to look very promising as 17 year olds, but seem to drop off the following year, I don't believe Conway is one of them. Performed very well in the reserves grand final for Aspley against us. Arguably BOG in the first half. Played his natural position as an inside midfielder for most of the game. At least shows he can play to a high standard against some AFL listed boys.

Conway is better than an 11 beep but in saying that I'm not so fussed by testing scores.

Conway is worth a rookie selection. He's done enough even if this year he has underwhelmed when I consider the expectations I had coming into the season. Brisbane need more strong bodied mids and he's a good fit who has the performances on the board which is better than most this year, or at least better than most 180cm+ guys this year as the story goes.

 

[Swanhotels]

If I was Sydney while I haven't heard anything I'd firstly make drafting Mark Seaby a priority and look to either make him my no.1 ruckman or at least my no.1 depth ruck option with Sydney going all in for these next few seasons after the Buddy acquisition. Just have that one locked away with a late pick.

Lobb could be an option from the second round. It depends on how much Sydney like his talent or whether it would be easier to take someone as a free agent or cheaply at the trade table next year or in a future season.

First round is a best available selection in most cases. Darcy Gardiner if there would both fill a need and provide strong value which would appeal with his long term key defence potential. Taylor while it's possible is likely gone by the time Sydney pick and more likely if looking for a quick, small midfielder Billy Hartung would be the more likely pick.



Conway is better than an 11 beep but in saying that I'm not so fussed by testing scores.

Conway is worth a rookie selection. He's done enough even if this year he has underwhelmed when I consider the expectations I had coming into the season. Brisbane need more strong bodied mids and he's a good fit who has the performances on the board which is better than most this year, or at least better than most 180cm+ guys this year as the story goes.

Awesome thanks mate!

 

[cotter101]

If I was Sydney while I haven't heard anything I'd firstly make drafting Mark Seaby a priority and look to either make him my no.1 ruckman or at least my no.1 depth ruck option with Sydney going all in for these next few seasons after the Buddy acquisition. Just have that one locked away with a late pick.

Lobb could be an option from the second round. It depends on how much Sydney like his talent or whether it would be easier to take someone as a free agent or cheaply at the trade table next year or in a future season.

First round is a best available selection in most cases. Darcy Gardiner if there would both fill a need and provide strong value which would appeal with his long term key defence potential. Taylor while it's possible is likely gone by the time Sydney pick and more likely if looking for a quick, small midfielder Billy Hartung would be the more likely pick.



Conway is better than an 11 beep but in saying that I'm not so fussed by testing scores.

Conway is worth a rookie selection. He's done enough even if this year he has underwhelmed when I consider the expectations I had coming into the season. Brisbane need more strong bodied mids and he's a good fit who has the performances on the board which is better than most this year, or at least better than most 180cm+ guys this year as the story goes.

Don't worry, I certainly agree he deserves to be taken after he has put in some good performances this year. Obviously stepping up in a grand final is great, even if it is only the NEAFL.

 

[fitzbane Lions]

Knightmare, will you be posting up an updated Mock Draft with news picks/movements? as there is a new draft order?

 

[aussierulesrules]

Short term it hurts.

Long term I have mixed feelings but more good than bad with some strong pickups who can be useful pieces going forward.

Losing Dal Santo as a free agent isn't fun and same story with McEvoy. From a leadership standpoint it's concerning with McEvoy gone even if I don't evaluate him as one of the better ruckman.

Some good long term pieces added though. Longer firstly was an excellent get and was worth pick 18.
Delaney is a pickup who I feel hasn't been spoken about enough. He was excellent in the VFL for North Melbourne and while he's not a guaranteed high level key defender I think he has the opportunity to go very well if he can get some stability around him down back. Savage can be a regular.
Bruce I'm not as high on but payed around the expected price and is another logical addition.

Yeah, I didn't mention the Dal and Delaney parts as I was just trying to show what we effectively got just in exchange for Mac (and picks 41 and 59), which was Longer, Savage, Bruce and upgrades on 24 to 19 and 25 to 18, which is a pretty amazing return, I reckon.

Given that Mac has generally been playing below his capabilities in the past couple of years, with only a handful of what we would consider really good games in that time (for someone of his capabilities) and his very average ruckwork, most on our board still probably had him in the "potential" category (still hoping that he'd be really good, like he was in 2011, and that he'd improve his ruckwork considerably) and I think Longer has at least as much "potential", as Ben (not necessarily as much around the ground, but a fair bit more in the ruck), so it seems most of us feel that to get Longer for so much less than we got for Ben puts us well up in that regard, given the position we find ourselves.

We lost someone who is 24yo (and who will likely be at least late 20's by the time we're contending again) and has good potential, but gained someone who is 20yo and has good potential, but for a lot less cost.

We certainly could have done with Ben's leadership, but thankfully Longer is also renowned for his leadership (including captaining Vic Metro) and for being "made of the right stuff" (as they put it after interviewing him on SEN yesterday). So hopefully by the time the likes of Riewoldt, Hayes, Montagna, Dempster and Fisher are all gone, the likes of he and Jack Newnes (who played with Billy at Northern Knights and who Lenny Hayes and others have anointed as "future captain") will be getting closer to their mid-20's and be ready to lead the way, around the time the club is aiming to be playing finals again.

Overall though we certainly do look to have taken a short-term hit over the trade period, with Dal and Mac leaving, but unlike say Melbourne (when they lost so much of their experience) we still have Riewoldt, Hayes, Montagna, Dempster, Fisher, Jones, Schneider, Ray, Gilbert, Gwilt (and possibly Jolly) who provide ample leadership and experience for the time being and then you've also got others, who are around the mid 20's now and have played plenty of footy (and been involved in a club that was playing grand finals), in Geary, Armitage and Steven (and even Savage now), so hopefully we're able to "rebuild" while remaining somewhat competitive, especially as we'll likely be able to add more experience and/or leadership in 12 months time, if need be, like Melbourne will, by adding Cross and Vince this year, for example.

It is interesting that you say that about Delaney though, because he certainly hasn't been getting much attention and I don't think many are expecting a whole lot from him, so I look forward to seeing how he goes for us, with the likes of Fisher, Gwilt, Gilbert, Dempster, Roberton and Bruce around him for support. It will be great to finally have the sort of defensive structure that we had in 2008/2009/2010 again, if we choose to, especially if the likes of Fisher, Gwilt and Gilbert are freed up to be more attacking/offensive again, which has been when they've generally played their best footy.

It also looks like we're going to have generally strong competition for spots in all areas of the ground next year, which we haven't had of late (even under Lyon, as we didn't have much in the VFL at that time and he also liked sticking with the same 22) which ought to be good for us.