Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Knightmare]

Will you be updating selections during the week Knightmare?

Will update either today/tomorrow. You can count on it.

i heard from someone that Lennon is hiding an injury does anyone know anything about that? have you heard anything knightmare?

Scharenberg might slide due to injury further than many would have thought earlier this year but Lennon is more sliding with clubs liking others more.

Lennon will go somewhere in the 6-15 range. Perhaps to Collingwood at pick 10 or Richmond at pick 12 would be the more likely to select him.

He's not sliding into the second round.

If looking from a St Kilda perspective for who might slide into the second round. Watch for Matt Crouch at 18/19. Luke Dunstan and Trent Dumont are quite likely also available.

 

[Sydswans0512]

Will update either today/tomorrow. You can count on it.



Scharenberg might slide due to injury further than many would have thought earlier this year but Lennon is more sliding with clubs liking others more.

Lennon will go somewhere in the 6-15 range. Perhaps to Collingwood at pick 10 or Richmond at pick 12 would be the more likely to select him.

He's not sliding into the second round.

If looking from a St Kilda perspective for who might slide into the second round. Watch for Matt Crouch at 18/19. Luke Dunstan and Trent Dumont are quite likely also available.

Any chance of Scharenberg sliding to 15 he's exactly what we need!

 

[Knightmare]

Any chance of Scharenberg sliding to 15 he's exactly what we need!

Brisbane may consider him at 7. If he slides beyond that Melbourne at 9, Collingwood at 10 and Richmond at 12 all have interest. Hard to see him getting past pick 12.

So many have had injuries as juniors but then have put those injuries behind them once they get to AFL level. Judd and J.Selwood are the best known examples of this. I expect a few clubs have learnt from this and take him probably top 10.

If I had to hazard a guess Collingwood will take him at pick 10. They like guys who have senior experience and performance behind them as evidence by their recruiting strategy last year with the trio of South Australias at 18,19,20.

If there for Sydney at 15 then he's worth the risk and a no brainer. Strong rumours of his draft position should be released by the media over coming days but it's interesting this past week he's starting to trend down with some thinking with the injury questions that he could slide outside the top 10.

 

[Sydswans0512]

Brisbane may consider him at 7. If he slides beyond that Melbourne at 9, Collingwood at 10 and Richmond at 12 all have interest. Hard to see him getting past pick 12.

So many have had injuries as juniors but then have put those injuries behind them once they get to AFL level. Judd and J.Selwood are the best known examples of this. I expect a few clubs have learnt from this and take him probably top 10.

If I had to hazard a guess Collingwood will take him at pick 10. They like guys who have senior experience and performance behind them as evidence by their recruiting strategy last year with the trio of South Australias at 18,19,20.

If there for Sydney at 15 then he's worth the risk and a no brainer. Strong rumours of his draft position should be released by the media over coming days but it's interesting this past week he's starting to trend down with some thinking with the injury questions that he could slide outside the top 10.

Who is someone we could pick up to replace the Shaw/ Malceski types then

 

[Knightmare]

Who is someone we could pick up to replace the Shaw/ Malceski types then

Isaiah Miller in the second round could be an appropriate choice. Darcy Byrne-Jones is another I'd consider at that stage as that type.

First round I'd go for value and take the best guy there. Lewis Taylor if he gets past GWS would be a strong choice. Blake Acres if there also good. Darcy Gardiner if looking for a key defender.
Unless Scharenberg slides I wouldn't be looking to find Shaw/Malceski successors in the first round.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Will update either today/tomorrow. You can count on it.

Great, look forward to it.

 

[JPod_31]

Hey KM, what is your thoughts on the 210cm giant Angus Milham?

 

[Footyking123]

Hey KM, what is your thoughts on the 210cm giant Angus Milham?

Needs a hell of a lot of developing!

 

[apuchar]

Any thoughts on Ben Brown for Freo Knightmare. Do you rate him as a forward prospect at AFL level?

 

[Smoocher]

Do you think that having Wells and Thomas as Garletts mentors sway the kangas decision in drafting him?

 

[eaglespremiers]

I'm starting to sense the sarcasm seeming as thought I have never really heard of those guys

You really should have heard of Jaxon Crabb, he was prolific.....



























in the WAFL.

 

[sydney eagle]

Freeman if available with his athleticism is someone I see West Coast going for. WCE badly lack guys who can run the length of the field and have a bunch of one paced midfielders but Freeman with his pace and endurance is someone I can see West Coast liking if there.

Acres is another I can imagine would be on the shortlist as many speculate and could be anotehr alternative considered if they shift away from Sheed last minute.

With respect "Knightmare" we have guys who can run the length of the field; they just don't do it QUICKLY !

 

[Knightmare]

Great, look forward to it.

Updated.

I haven't bothered with the rookie upgrades. I may include them next week if I update again but just wanted to get as many names as possible out there as possible and make the top end as close to what will happen on draft day as possible.

Hey KM, what is your thoughts on the 210cm giant Angus Milham?

I've got my Milham profile up on page 1 which pretty much tells the story. He's not someone I'd necessarily take but if you take him expect to put lots of time and years into him before you see any results.



Angus Milham (VIC – Ruck)
Height: 210cm, Weight: 86kg, DOB: 11/08/1994
Recruited from:
Style:
Player comparison:
Range: Rookie - undrafted
Profile: Super tall beanpole ruckman at 210cm. Milham is a year older but has done very little to this point. He doesn’t find it around the ground. He’s not a marking threat. Isn’t a dominant tap ruckman with his leap minimal and strength minimal. Skills at this point are poor, particularly by hand and has limited penetration on his kick but often short distances can hit his targets. He also has very poor hands in close and is exceptionally fumbly. That said he’s said to be a high character, hardworking guy so if you take a chance on him you’re taking him as a 6-7 year project before you’re getting any potential return.

Any thoughts on Ben Brown for Freo Knightmare. Do you rate him as a forward prospect at AFL level?

Brown could be a good get later in the draft.

He's not year one ready which is the thing to note as he's still a tall developing type. But he's one of the few really natural 2m key forwards who with a year or two in the system has the opportunity to become something looking at some of his attributes and his continued improvement.

Do you think that having Wells and Thomas as Garletts mentors sway the kangas decision in drafting him?

I'm not sure if even Adam Goodes would be able to help Garlett to be perfectly honest.

He's able to play and play round one with his talent but you also have to accept who he is and know that he'll have his issues which is what you weigh up with Garlett.

 

[Reptilia]

Knightmare what made aish go up in your power rankings in the last month?

 

[leggs]

Hey knightmare do you think the dees like Salem more than freeman now?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare what made aish go up in your power rankings in the last month?

It's a rolling power rankings so there will always be movement and it's more those later draft options I've shifted around more so.

In reviewing Aish's game over recent weeks I just can't help but like what he's done against more senior opposition for all these years and still being that clear class above. In a team off a back flank or wing he can help a team right away and be someone who adds that extra class but then also goes on to have a long, long career.

Hey knightmare do you think the dees like Salem more than freeman now?

It's not a selection set in stone and my call on Salem is a speculative one. Scharenberg is one I expect Melbourne to strongly look at also if available depending on the clubs thoughts on his ankles.

I can't help but get the sense with Paul Roos being who he is that he'd value Salem's game more highly as much as it's been rumoured that he was impressed with Freeman. Freeman is too much of a receiver for him to be someone I see Roos wanting on his team whereas Salem is a genuine hard guy who can play his type way running game and stop any opposition impact which screams a Paul Roos selection.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

I like that Aish and Billings have moved up the power rankings. Both the classiest players in the draft.

On St Kilda, I can't see us taking Apeness (or any tall for that matter) at 18/19. Our recruitment manager Ameet Bains has stated publicly a number of times that we will select three midfielders with our top 20 selections. Unless he's trying to trick other clubs into letting out a false strategy I'll take his word for it. I definitely see us taking two mids in that 15-25 range that you have (Dumont, Cripps, Hartung, Crouch, Dunstan, Merrett etc.)

 

[aussierulesrules]

If we hadn't gotten Longer then one of Apeness or Ben Brown may have come into strong consideration for us if we still had pick 25 (which we traded for Longer), but with Longer, Hickey and Rhys Stanley already there and with the possibility that we might be in a strong position to get Wright next year (if needed), or even Conlon in the rookie draft, I don't see us as being any chance of taking Apeness at 18 or 19, especially as he would seem like a reach.

There has been a suggestion that we are looking into Gardiner, but other than possibly him I think we'll definitely be going for "mids". With Richardson having been in SA this year he might also know a bit more about Dumont and Dunstan, so they may come into stronger consideration, if he gets a word in. Maybe even Giles.

 

[sasaint]

On St Kilda, I can't see us taking Apeness (or any tall for that matter) at 18/19. Our recruitment manager Ameet Bains has stated publicly a number of times that we will select three midfielders with our top 20 selections. Unless he's trying to trick other clubs into letting out a false strategy I'll take his word for it. I definitely see us taking two mids in that 15-25 range that you have (Dumont, Cripps, Hartung, Crouch, Dunstan, Merrett etc.)

Love your work KM but gotta agree with above. I'd love to understand why you think the Saints might consider Apeness. Just doesn't add up to me.

 

[Footyking123]

Just curious as to why Isaiah Miller moved up 7 spots in the power rankings but about the same the other way in the actual draft?
Also happy to see Aish move up higher in power rankings.

 

[Knightmare]

I'm not as optimistic as others about St Kilda and the tall situation.

I don't rate Hickey or Stanley.

Stanley is quick as anything but he's never kicked more than a goal a game in a season and until this year he was being played as a forward. He's also a relatively poor mark at his size and a poor tackling considering how quick he is. He's been in the AFL system for long enough and looking at his age his breakout season was due a couple of years ago.

Then Hickey in no games this year managed more than 20 hitouts per game. He's not a goalscoring threat, a marking threat or a particularly high level accumulator so I'm not all that optimistic about his growth either. He's still a project ruckman hoping to establish himself which again at his age isn't good enough.

Looking specifically at the talls going forward I'm only keen on Longer as a no.1 ruckman and then I give hope to the development of Spencer White as a key forward with his talent.

Peter Wright may be available at St Kilda's selection but you just don't know whether St Kilda finish low enough to get him firstly, and assuming St Kilda finish low or bottom then what if McCartin or Goddard or a midfielders is evaluated as a better talent. This far out it's too unclear to make those kinds of assumptions.

Just curious as to why Isaiah Miller moved up 7 spots in the power rankings but about the same the other way in the actual draft?
Also happy to see Aish move up higher in power rankings.

I wasn't even aware of where I had him before the update so it's interesting to know others are keeping track.

Where I have guys going in the actual draft reflects where I expect clubs to take guys. It in no way reflects where I would necessarily take guys.

If it did I'd have:
1. GWS - Boyd
2. GWS - Aish
3. St.K - Billings
4. WBD - Bontempelli
5. GC - Acres
6. Col - Crouch
7. Bris - L.Taylor
8. NM - McDonald (F/S)
9. Mel - Scharenberg
10. Col - Kolodjashnij
11. WCE - Kelly
12. Rich - Sheed
13. Carl - Dunstan
and so on.

Like with where I expect players will get drafted on draft day (mostly listening to media rumours and using common sense to filter out those bad rumours and listen to see if any repeating themes) I also continue to review footage and games right up until the draft so like with my actual draft my power rankings also change.

There will probably be other examples of others going up in my power rankings and down in the actual draft. Not intentional but it's just the way it goes sometimes.

 

[leggs]

What sort of player do you see Salem turning into?

 

[TheLastEmperor]

That's all well and good that you're not as optimistic as others about St Kilda's talls but my point was in relation to your mock draft not your power rankings or list assessment, with all due respect.

As you say, your mock reflects how you see the draft panning out that's why I raised what our recruitment manager said - we'll take three mids and someone like an Apeness is unlikely. I just thought I would point that out in case you were unaware and it may help out.

 

[Knightmare]

What sort of player do you see Salem turning into?

Very good question.

Salem gives you options. He could be a negating midfielders. He's played a strong role on Aish before and held him reasonably well.

He could be a half forward who rotates into the midfield as more that goalkicking midfielder.

He gives you options with the range of roles he can play but they're probably the two I'd most closely look at as I'm not seeing him developing into an A-grade midfielder.

That's all well and good that you're not as optimistic as others about St Kilda's talls but my point was in relation to your mock draft not your power rankings or list assessment, with all due respect.

As you say, your mock reflects how you see the draft panning out that's why I raised what our recruitment manager said - we'll take three mids and someone like an Apeness is unlikely. I just thought I would point that out in case you were unaware and it may help out.

You're right. Apeness is not someone I'd be picking and that early.

He's just one who has been linked to St Kilda and is expected to go in roughly that range so I'm just keeping the phantom consistent with that.

If I was picking for the Saints I'd be taking Aish at 3 instead of Kelly. Acres if there and if not then Crouch and Dunstan just because they're highest on my list.

There will likely be more shuffling to come as more players become linked to more selections so don't expect my phantom draft or the real thing to remain exectly the same come draft day.

My last update was mostly just adding a bunch of extra bottom end of the draft potential selection types.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Well shit, those two have just pretty much said all this as I've been writing it, but I went to the trouble of writing it, so I might as well post it!:

You think Stanley's breakout season was due when he was 20yo? How many at 202cm, who were drafted as a "project", have a breakout season at 20? He also hardly got out on the park until last year (2012), due to consistent injuries and even that year he did his hammy twice and missed 6 weeks each time. That was considered a good year, injury-wise, for him!

Then this year he was thrown to the wolves in a position he'd probably never played before in his life, after having only played half a game leading into the season and while he understandably struggled on the likes of Cloke, who he wasn't suited to or ready to play on, he did manage to convincingly beat the much more physically suitable Sam Reid, Jeremy Cameron and Liam Jones, when matched up on them (kept them to 2 scoring shots between them in 2.5 games) and had 18 possies and 14 marks himself, in another game (possibly his first ever full game in defence at any level and his first full game in 6 months). That said, he was showing really good signs up forward and in the ruck prior to his hammy injuries early in 2012 and as such I imagine he'll be playing up forward/ruck again next year.

He has plenty of shortcomings and is never likely to be any more than as you put it a "component of a team", as he is much more of an "athlete" than a "footballer", but to suggest that he should have had a breakout season two years ago, when he was always going to take time, even without the injuries, is going a fair bit too far, I would have thought.

As for Hickey, he was also only 22yo this year and only took up the game when he was 18 and while he struggled up forward this year, it was pretty clear that he is best suited in the ruck and he really impressed late in the year in the ruck, when given the no.1 ruck responsibility and I dare say that is why we were prepared to move Ben McEvoy on. He looked every bit someone who would relish the no.1 responsibility in 2014.

I'm also not sure why you say he's "not a marking threat", when his sticky fingers overhead are one of his best attributes. He reportedly took the most contested marks in a single game (7) of anyone in the 2012 season, despite it only being his 5th AFL game and ended up with 16 in his 10 games for that season. He understandably still has plenty to learn, but his marking is certainly far from an issue. Having seen plenty of them both, I consider Hickey's overhead marking to be not far short of McEvoy's. Mac is physically stronger in a marking contest, but Hickey's hands are just as strong and he's probably going to be able to get into space more easily, being more nimble and agile. He also follows up much better in the packs than Ben and some of his tapwork this year was stuff that we hadn't seen at our club since probably Steven King and Michael Gardiner were here.

Regardless of all this though, your mock is where you think everyone is going to go on the night and whether you rate any of these three or not, our club rates them enough that we were prepared to trade McEvoy and weren't willing to trade Stanley (when Port enquired this offseason) and then we went out and spent a reasonably high pick on Longer, after spending an even higher pick on Hickey last year, so the chance of us now going out and spending a top 20 pick on another who plays a similar role, but who isn't generally rated that high in the draft, when we have more pressing needs, is very slim, I would imagine, so I guess we just figured that you would like to know that, considering your mock is you trying to predict what happens on the night.