Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Knightmare Just thought I'd let you know, you mentioned this a few pages back, can't remember where but you were discussing Toby Mclean and said he's off to the state combine. Not sure if you know now, but he was upgraded to the main one along with three others: Teia Miles, Oscar Macdonald and Bailey Dale.

Cheers for that.
Pretty interested in Teia Miles, as have heard WCE has spoken to him a few times.
Looks a good late draft pick.
If we delist Mitch Carter he would be a perfect replacement.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Knightmare with Collingwood losing Beams.
Does that means Collingwood go into a rebuild and draft more young kids ?
Or do they look to more experienced players to trade for that are ready to play now ?
They seem to already have a pretty good list, and some elite young talent yet too play,
in last years two top draft picks.
As a outsider I think there key backs/forwards are there major weakness, along with some midfield pace.
Freeman should help with the pace problem, as well as f/s Moore as a key forward.
The key backs are harder to fix.
Love to hear your thoughts.

 

[Knightmare]

I get what you are saying. As a general recruiting philosophy.

But when they have special ability AND they have strong performance on the board then they are gone by Pick 15(North's Pick). North have performed admirably for years and been around that double digit selection for their 1st Pick. They have identified and selected plenty of good players too.

I just think they need to be bold, even if it's a risk of a bust.

I notice you have Menadue as their 1st pick. Maybe he is that guy who just might turn into that special player, not just a good player. Maybe it's McKenzie.

Lamb has the ability, athleticism and physique to be something more than "good". Maybe he'll be a bust...who knows. 193cm 80+ kilo's, great athlete, great ability and only an immature baby(late October birthday).

I really think, and hope, North are in the position to be bold.

North Melbourne with their picks taken some bold guys in the sense that they have taken a number of real upside guys. Kieran Harper, Brad McKenzie and Sam Wright as some recent enough examples as those guys who more had the footballing traits than the dominant footballing production.

If they are going to look for pace as an example there are still some guys I would personally be taking over Lamb. Jarrod Garlett while earlier than he will likely go on draft day is someone who I feel would be a much better choice as a guy with genuine pace, but then endurance, the skills but then also the performances on the board to confirm that he can play.

Menadue would be another example of a good upside guy where when played on the ball through the midfield he has had some big games. He had the monster first final in the absence of some of Western Jets key midfielders. He is also someone who really can turn games with his influence and for North Melbourne would be another terrific get at 15.

First round I personally tend to prefer the proven on-ballers and the key forwards with both the talent and performance. In my view they are the highest percentage choices.

My play in North Melbourne's position and going off what Brad Scott has said publicly, they are going to do this - is play to win now and go aggressively for a premiership and go after some more proven AFL talent. Higgins as a free agent who they have expressed interest in is a great starting point. If they can get Lumumba he would be a strong list fit and a strong get. Malceski if he can be had as a free agent. I'm sure there will be players on the trade table they could also make a play for with their first round selection who over the coming weeks might become more obvious.

Knightmare Just thought I'd let you know, you mentioned this a few pages back, can't remember where but you were discussing Toby Mclean and said he's off to the state combine. Not sure if you know now, but he was upgraded to the main one along with three others: Teia Miles, Oscar Macdonald and Bailey Dale.

Do you have an updated list of the national combine invites? Clearly I'm referring to an old list. Good to hear they have all been invited to the national combine. Certainly all should be amongst that list.

Knightmare with Collingwood losing Beams.
Does that means Collingwood go into a rebuild and draft more young kids ?
Or do they look to more experienced players to trade for that are ready to play now ?
They seem to already have a pretty good list, and some elite young talent yet too play,
in last years two top draft picks.
As a outsider I think there key backs/forwards are there major weakness, along with some midfield pace.
Freeman should help with the pace problem, as well as f/s Moore as a key forward.
The key backs are harder to fix.
Love to hear your thoughts.

I certainly hope as a Collingwood fan the club do not go after any picks in a trade of Beams. But whether they share my opinion on this I do not know with the club seemingly not sharing my same value for veterans at least with the club turning over veterans quicker and sooner than I would be inclined to.

I would be personally going after established players and very specifically identified ones. The club has had two years where they have been heavily involved early draft (Scharenberg and Freeman last year at 6 and 10 and the year before with Grundy, Kennedy and Broomhead at 18,19 and 20), and picking up more kids early draft doesn't win games as we have seen with GWS, Gold Coast, Melbourne and Carlton over the years and just sets team lists back further so I would be strongly opposed to gaining as an example Brisbane's first round pick and something else or Gold Coast's first round pick and something else which is what both clubs with picks being more tradeable commodities would likely be most inclined to offer. From a Collingwood perspective I would say that adding players from those early picks in this draft would significantly set the list back and set it back too far to be adequately competitive. The clubs best possible chance for another window is while Pendlebury and Cloke remain so it would for me to even consider talking to either club have to be a high level established player fitting the clubs list needs.

From Brisbane I would consider trades involving Hanley, Rich, Aish or Rockliff.
From Gold Coast I would consider trades involving T.Lynch, D.Swallow, Kolodjashnij or T.McKenzie.
And depending on the player involved in the trade it might be just that player or that player and something else whether that be a pick or additional player to make the trade more fair.

For a better feel of Collingwood's list needs I go through it comprehensively in this thread (see page 1): http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/collingwood-almanac-2014.1058851/

Key defenders, even with many injury prone is probably one of the few things Collingwood while none of the options are elite, it's a well stocked position with Keeffe, Frost, Brown, then Marsh developing strongly at VFL level and Reid capable of swinging back.

Feel free to press me further detail if there is anything you would like some more depth about any dynamic within the Collingwood list of. I could go on all day about everything list management and the team list of Collingwood or other lists for that matter.

 

[fronkalicious]

Km

If Lin Jong was in this draft, do you think he'd get selected based on his vfl form?

 

[Andy_Mac]

Knightmare, who do you think will nominate Billy Stretch to force Melbourne into using its second pick on him?

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

Do you have an updated list of the national combine invites? Clearly I'm referring to an old list. Good to hear they have all been invited to the national combine. Certainly all should be amongst that list.

Don't think there was an actual press release on it but as far as I know it's just those 4. Mentioned in this article:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-09-03/combines-small-stories

No idea if there's been anyone promoted to the other state combine.

 

[Spitter9]

The roos need someone with good pace to run and carry so Connor menadue seems a good fit. Do you reckon he could come in next year and make an impact knightmare? Or he will play vfl for a few seasons?

 

[fronkalicious]

When watching Lamb I just don't see elite. While he does some freakish and athletic things he doesn't do dominant things which makes me think he won't be elite.

If anything I would be more inclined to say Lamb is someone who either makes it as a component to a team if he can find a best role (which I'm not yet convinced of) or is a flat out bust.

There are so many non athletic types who have in a sense hidden upside. That Matt Priddis fella did pretty well winning the Browlow last night. Who would have thought? People so frequently wrongly associate upside with athleticism and guys who have flashy games. I see upside in more those who show continued strong improvement from year to year. I also see a whole bunch of guys getting horribly underrated in this draft.

All of Bampton, Blakely, Neal-Bullen and Gore as examples are significantly better than people are recognising them to be and Bampton and Blakely particularly of those guys really have the scope to become exceptionally high level midfielders. With Bampton able to become a Tom Liberatore equivalent and Blakely a James Kelly equivalent in this draft. Or from a value standpoint as Luke Parker and Rory Sloane in recent enough years have mid draft really similarly prove bargain selections if selected outside the first round as some guys who will likely be among the best in the draft.

My advise to clubs is don't get sucked into "upside guys." Typically they are guys who don't have the performances on the board. Play it smart and go the well performed guys who have proven they can play. If they have special ability and have the strong performances on the board, that is when you can hit the jackpot and that's an example of a well identified upside guy.

KM

Does Bonti fall into this category?? Hardly set the world on fire at the champs.

 

[12Chill]

The roos need someone with good pace to run and carry so Connor menadue seems a good fit. Do you reckon he could come in next year and make an impact knightmare? Or he will play vfl for a few seasons?

There's nothing of Menadue, will need to build up, won't make immediate impact IMO.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Knighta, who would you expect Melb to select if they had pick 2 & 3, & assuming Petracca is gone?

 

[Knightmare]

Km

If Lin Jong was in this draft, do you think he'd get selected based on his vfl form?

Rookie chance. I don't see him as so appealing as a limited kick and a low production player. In saying that given his strong improvement, particularly in the second half of the season that is what clubs would be betting on I imagine based on the small sample of games I have seen on Jong at VFL level this season.

Knightmare, who do you think will nominate Billy Stretch to force Melbourne into using its second pick on him?

I would suggest most likely yes, but still not set on concrete.

70/30 Melbourne need to use that second round pick on Stretch.

The roos need someone with good pace to run and carry so Connor menadue seems a good fit. Do you reckon he could come in next year and make an impact knightmare? Or he will play vfl for a few seasons?

Menadue will need a couple of seasons at VFL level before he plays regular senior AFL games. Particularly for a strong club like North Melbourne. He is very light bodied at the moment and will require time to develop.

KM

Does Bonti fall into this category?? Hardly set the world on fire at the champs.

His TAC Cup and U18 champs performance was good but not great. What was great was his 50 disposals and 10 goal game which pretty clearly suggested he could really dominate games so while speculative to an extent and others likely wouldn't have had him as high on their draft boards as he went, there was enough to suggest given his attributes and given his improvement that he could develop into a monster. Don't think any of us expected him to become this much of a monster, this soon. I certainly didn't. But he has always had that Koutaesque feel as that super tall but just incredibly dominant midfielder.

Knighta, who would you expect Melb to select if they had pick 2 & 3, & assuming Petracca is gone?

My guess would be Brayshaw and Lever at this stage as per page one.

 

[Soups]

Hey Knighter,

If the Pies get pick 4/5 and decide to keep it, and McCartin and Wright are available could you see us shoring up our KPP depth for hopefully the next 10 years? (Moore at 8/9) or do you see us taking Laverde/Pickett as the next best midfield picks? Or even drafting a big bodied midfielder in the second round to try fill that midfield hole!

Really has made things very interesting.
Cheers!

 

[aussierulesrules]

I could go on all day about everything list management and the team list of Collingwood or other lists for that matter.

OK, so last night Gerard Wheatley on AFL 360 and also SEN were both reporting that GWS are uber-keen on Petracca and will do whatever it takes pretty much to get pick 1 from us. So if you were us, what you be asking for from them to gain pick 1 and all that that brings (PR, marketing, etc, plus the potential risk involved from our side if the trade doesn't work out well for us down the track, Freo in 2001-style- which they are still copping shit for, 13 years later!)?

 

[TerryWallet]

Knightmare, who do you think will nominate Billy Stretch to force Melbourne into using its second pick on him?

This doesn't really answer your question about who exactly will nominate Stretch, but Shifter Sheehan did say that Stretch would be around mid teens if he wasn't F/S. So i would presume you will be lucky if no-one nominates him before your 23 pick.

 

[Misunderstood]

Knightmare,

May i ask do you honestly see one of wright or McArtin landing at the Western Bulldogs? Do you feel that is who the Bulldogs will Target or do you believe it will be a midfeilder of some sort? Thanks for you time

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knighter,

If the Pies get pick 4/5 and decide to keep it, and McCartin and Wright are available could you see us shoring up our KPP depth for hopefully the next 10 years? (Moore at 8/9) or do you see us taking Laverde/Pickett as the next best midfield picks? Or even drafting a big bodied midfielder in the second round to try fill that midfield hole!

Really has made things very interesting.
Cheers!

If a Beams trade happens I would be inclined to ask for players only - with Collingwood too young to be competitive and Collingwood's best chance at another premiership being as long as Cloke and Pendlebury remain.

If Collingwood do end up with another first round pick I would be more inclined to trade it if an appropriate player can be had.

Scharenberg, Freeman, Grundy, Kennedy, Broomhead, Elliott and Adams is too young as is.

I'd be more inclined to trade any early picks for established players or players who have at least been in the system for a few years.

If pick 4 or 5 has to happen then McCartin or Wright depending on availablity would be the picks and would long term be strong compliments for Moore. They would be the best available selections at that point and would be the way I would be going with other needs capable of being filled with later picks or through other creative avenues - whether that be trade/free agency or drafting late/rookie where Collingwood are generally proficient in finding good talent.

OK, so last night Gerard Wheatley on AFL 360 and also SEN were both reporting that GWS are uber-keen on Petracca and will do whatever it takes pretty much to get pick 1 from us. So if you were us, what you be asking for from them to gain pick 1 and all that that brings (PR, marketing, etc, plus the potential risk involved from our side if the trade doesn't work out well for us down the track, Freo in 2001-style- which they are still copping shit for, 13 years later!)?

I would do the Petracca trade if GWS are offering the right pieces.

If as an example Shiel and GWS' first pick can be had for pick 1 that could mean Shiel (who may be a better midfielder than Petracca anyway) and McCartin who could be a number one inside 50 target. I'd be pretty happy with that with St Kilda needing a quality young key forward who can be built around.

Maybe a direct trade of pick 1 for Tom Boyd could be another possibility if GWS are truly that desperate for Petracca and that way St Kilda can add a franchise key forward - that McCartin or Wright may not be.

As a rule pick 1 and first round picks are generally an overvalued as a commodity and I expect that will remain the case this year also. It's not 2001. This isn't a super draft. The media and fans will get annoyed not properly understanding that pick 1 is rarely going off the last 10 years the best guy to come out of their various draft years and that not all first round picks make the grade as too many wrongly assumed.

The theory behind the Fremantle trade of pick 1 in 2001 I personally strongly agree with and if that could be done again today I would with that pick look to replicate that. It shows a commitment in my mind to getting better and they added two terrific key position players in Croad and McPharlin. The only issue was with Croad he became homesick which was the primary issue there and that issue was not identified prior to the trade. That and Hawthorn nailed pick 36 from that deal with Sam Mitchell which eventually made it a winning trade for Hawthorn. In any case I imagine Hodge would not have achieved the same success with Fremantle and I can't imagine Fremantle would have identified Sam Mitchell at 36 so overall despite the public perception the trade even if Croad was not ideal for Fremantle was still a good trade for both teams.

The PR/marketing side is the major attraction to that top pick. It is a way to sell fans new hope and that new savior. You just have to look at Melbourne for details about how that doesn't always work out as you may think it will at the time. Then on the other side of the spectrum Hawthorn continue to trade their picks for players identified on other team lists and as a result they have remained up and a dominant team in the competition, and the same can be said of Sydney who people thought were too old five years ago and still remain up.

The AFL unlike as an example the NBA is not a game where collecting assets and high draft picks will get you anywhere. You need to in the AFL be a lot more aggressive and get those established players to become relevant and build a competitive team.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare,

May i ask do you honestly see one of wright or McArtin landing at the Western Bulldogs? Do you feel that is who the Bulldogs will Target or do you believe it will be a midfeilder of some sort? Thanks for you time

I think there is a real chance that at least one good tall is available for the dogs. McCartin does not look likely to be available. Wright or Durdin though, at least one of the two should be available and would be terrific picks.

 

[Wild Bill]

Thoughts on Matt Goodyear KM?

 

[Knightmare]

Thoughts on Matt Goodyear KM?

Goodyear is a good but not great midfielder. He is hard and has some pace but I don't see him as a dominant contested ball winner and lacks some composure with his footskills and decision making too often letting him down for me.

I see him more a rookie chance than a sure selection.

 

[Wild Bill]

Goodyear is a good but not great midfielder. He is hard and has some pace but I don't see him as a dominant contested ball winner and lacks some composure with his footskills and decision making too often letting him down for me.

I see him more a rookie chance than a sure selection.

His tackling and contested possession numbers are good but the foot skills are a worry. Still he had a really consistent year and I think he will be on a list as a late pick or rookie.

 

[Godogs247]

Aish to Adelaide and collingwoods first pick
Dangerfield to Collingwood
Beams to Brissy

Lock it in!

Ok I have this feeling about a player last year was Charlie Cameran this year its Lonie think his going to be a gun.

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Aish to Adelaide and collingwoods first pick
Dangerfield to Collingwood
Beams to Brissy

Lock it in!

Ok I have this feeling about a player last year was Charlie Cameran this year its Lonie think his going to be a gun.

Pies first pick is moore 99% so how can that happen

 

[Knightmare]

Aish to Adelaide and collingwoods first pick
Dangerfield to Collingwood
Beams to Brissy

Lock it in!

Ok I have this feeling about a player last year was Charlie Cameran this year its Lonie think his going to be a gun.

Think you might be getting confused with Brisbane's first round pick but if that three way trade with Danger and Beams happens it would likely be more along the lines of:

Adelaide get: Brisbane first round selection, Matthew Leuenberger, Brisbane second round selection, Collingwood second round selection.
Brisbane get: Dayne Beams
Collingwood get: Patrick Dangerfield

As a trade not so unlike what we saw with that Judd trade some years back as a template but with a third party involved in this case. As a trade it is an interesting way around Beams wanting to move back to QLD for family reasons, Adelaide getting substantially better compensation for Dangerfield than they would otherwise get and Brisbane getting their guy without losing any of their young core pieces.

 

[tenderwarrior]

Think you might be getting confused with Brisbane's first round pick but if that three way trade with Danger and Beams happens it would likely be more along the lines of:

Adelaide get: Brisbane first round selection, Matthew Leuenberger, Brisbane second round selection, Collingwood second round selection.
Brisbane get: Dayne Beams
Collingwood get: Patrick Dangerfield

As a trade not so unlike what we saw with that Judd trade some years back as a template but with a third party involved in this case. As a trade it is an interesting way around Beams wanting to move back to QLD for family reasons, Adelaide getting substantially better compensation for Dangerfield than they would otherwise get and Brisbane getting their guy without losing any of their young core pieces.

So Brisbane trade Leuenberger, Pick 4 and Pick 24ish for Beams?

Alright..

 

[Punchy Demons]

So Brisbane trade Leuenberger, Pick 4 and Pick 24ish for Beams?

Alright..

I totally agree, Brisbane won't be giving up all of that!