Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Trav 20]

I can't help but not trust the measurements.

It's like with now Brisbane Lion Jackson Paine. He was listed at 193cm at the time of drafting and 194cm post draft but he'd only in reality be no taller than 190/191cm as a guy noticeably shorter than those who measure in at the same height if you actually see him up close.

It's the same story with McCartin whenever you see him around any of the other players he has competed against, understanding their measurements like the back of my hand, he's noticeably shorter than others with similar measurements.

You're not convincing me. You're asserting his measurements were wrong a year ago and wrong again more recently.

And your yardstick is eyesight. You'll forgive me for not buying it. Although I do accept that measurements are not always accurate.

 

[The German Hunter]

You're not convincing me. You're asserting his measurements were wrong a year ago and wrong again more recently.

And your yardstick is eyesight. You'll forgive me for not buying it. Although I do accept that measurements are not always accurate.

I always tell the ladies it's 8inches......

 

[Trav 20]

I always tell the ladies it's 8inches......

They know you're lying.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

I always tell the ladies it's 8inches......

Who cares right? They're never gonna see it anyway.

Sorry mate I couldn't resist.

 

[Knightmare]

I've seen changes to the top 25 or so almost every day this week KM. Not highlighting it to be smart as your phantom is the pinnacle but I've just noticed as I always look at who is at 21/22/41 & its changing daily. Would you regard this year as your toughest year to predict?

Sounds like a real media question there.

Every year has it's challenges when predicting the draft order and mostly very little turns out to be right after those first 10 selections.

I'm just adjusting the order as I hear new bits of information from the media, and if more than one media source offers the same message that is enough to convince me with my phantom draft order that I would switch some players around.

I have heard along the grapevine that hawks have shown serious interest in Aidan Anderson..... Have you seen much of him? His highlights package looks pretty good!

Anderson is a handy forward and has some talent as a guy who feels like a real threat around goal. Not quick but has done well to string together some reasonable games at WAFL League level.

You're not convincing me. You're asserting his measurements were wrong a year ago and wrong again more recently.

And your yardstick is eyesight. You'll forgive me for not buying it. Although I do accept that measurements are not always accurate.

With McCartin my message is if you're assuming "he is definitely 194cm as listed on afl.com" is just caution if that is what you're hoping for because he doesn't look close to that.

 

[Trav 20]

With McCartin my message is if you're assuming "he is definitely 194cm as listed on afl.com" is just caution if that is what you're hoping for because he doesn't look close to that.

You're asserting he's 190 cm, as opposed to Matthew Bate, who was 192. I don't believe you. And forgive me for preferring to accept AFL profiles over your eyesight.

Perhaps his heavy and somewhat overweight frame distorts his height.

 

[grundog49]

Hey KM, do you reckon we could draft Lachie Weller? He would add some class and pace to our midfield which we need desperately.

 

[TheJackal]

Sounds like a real media question there.

Every year has it's challenges when predicting the draft order and mostly very little turns out to be right after those first 10 selections.

I'm just adjusting the order as I hear new bits of information from the media, and if more than one media source offers the same message that is enough to convince me with my phantom draft order that I would switch some players around.

Haha always first in with the tough questions!

Makes sense that you'd adjust it when you hear snippits. The latest afl site podcast was pretty good as I'm sure you saw.

Personally, I'm not even going to try to do a phantom this year due to the evenness of that 5-20 group. So for you and others that are giving it a go keep up the good work!

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, do you reckon we could draft Lachie Weller? He would add some class and pace to our midfield which we need desperately.

There seems to be a sense that Weller wants to land on a Victorian club list. Whether that would put off an Adelaide if true I do not have that information, nor do I know for certain how true that rumour is.

My best guess is Adelaide pass.

 

[x_les_x]

Hey KM, How accurate is brett Anderson (sen) normally with his phantom drafts?

 

[Stan The Caddy]

Hey KM with picks 5-20 being so even and lacking in star quality which way do you think recruiters will lean? Will they look for the safer pick who they can place more faith in or will they take more of a risk and have a punt on someone who they see as having lots of upside in search of that star quality?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, How accurate is brett Anderson (sen) normally with his phantom drafts?

I don't know how Brett has gone in the past, in fact I don't remember reading Brett before this year (or if I did I may have momentarily glanced over it).

In saying I wasn't aware of Brett before this year as a draft watcher this year I'm aware of him this year and he seems to be getting the same rumours as the other major media writers so I think his accuracy is probably as good as any in the media at the moment. He's another to add to the list of worth listening our for I'd say.

 

[gothedons]

Hey Knightmare... I notice you have Wright slipping due to performance in finals and in big games - yet McKenzie is a fav of yours... When I look at McKenzie's TAC cup stats, he kicked 23 of his 35 goals (in 3 games) against weak opponents (NT, Eastern Rangers, Bendigo).... That means in the other games he kicked 12 goals at an avg of 1.7/game... do you not also have the same concern with him?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM with picks 5-20 being so even and lacking in star quality which way do you think recruiters will lean? Will they look for the safer pick who they can place more faith in or will they take more of a risk and have a punt on someone who they see as having lots of upside in search of that star quality?

Probably given that dynamic lots of needs based picks. Otherwise different clubs will have different methods and different evaluations - mostly looking to take who they believe is the best talent.

To give a less vague answer I imagine those clubs with more than one first round pick may relatively speaking be more inclined to take a chance with one of their picks if there is no clear best available. Perhaps Collingwood at 5 go that route, perhaps Gold Coast, Essendon or St Kilda who have those multiple first round picks or in the case of St Kilda those three picks inside the first 22 selections.

 

[Turbocat]

I heard Toohmey on afl tonight saying Laverde has even cooled. DeGoey now coming into calculation for the Pies. This year is more like musical chairs , shuffles so often that the ones who get picked earlier than others could just be the on in favor at that point in time.
He even said the Saints still not sure who they pick. If they do go McCartin , Melb will fall over themselves calling Brayshaw and Pettracca.

If anyone cal get the top 20 right this year they will be as much knowledgeable as lucky.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare... I notice you have Wright slipping due to performance in finals and in big games - yet McKenzie is a fav of yours... When I look at McKenzie's TAC cup stats, he kicked 23 of his 35 goals (in 3 games) against weak opponents (NT, Eastern Rangers, Bendigo).... That means in the other games he kicked 12 goals at an avg of 1.7/game... do you not also have the same concern with him?

Your interpretation of Reece McKenzie's numbers is the most common interpretation but I see his stats differently.

Prior to July Reece was playing a key forward role where he rotated into the ruck. Personally I found that ruined his rhythm up front and he just couldn't find the continuity.

From July onward Reece really started to dominate and the only game he didn't from that point onward kick multiple goals in was v Oakleigh who won the TAC Cup premiership and had arguably the two best shutdown key defenders in the TAC Cup in Hugh Beasley who has hardly lost a matchup deep in defense, then Darcy Moore who also had a terrific season primarily used as a shutdown key defender.

Additionally worth noting with McKenzie is the drastic rise in the numbers he was achieving.
The first 5 games he had: 2, 3, 1, 1 and 1 goal.
The next 5 games he had: 10, 1, 7, 6 and 3 goals.

And his mark totals followed a similar theme:
The first 5 games he had: 4, 6, 1, 9 and 3 marks per game.
In the next 5 games he had: 13, 4, 12, 13 and 6 marks per game.

My recommendation would be to graph that and see what that looks like. It's a heavy rate of improvement and having not played footy last year, playing basketball instead, you could see game after game McKenzie just grew in confidence and comfort and his game developed rapidly going from a mediocre start to the season to the dominant key forward in the TAC Cup (other than McCartin who we hardly saw). Having not spent as much time in a footballing program and not being a part of the AIS etc you put McKenzie in a good AFL program and there is no reason why he cannot continue to rapidly improve his game.

--
Given you mention Wright I would strongly encourage you to plot Wright's growth from 2013 to 2014 as a gauge for his rate of improvement.
The basics are that in 2013 Wright kicked 27 goals from 12 games compared in 2014 to 32 goals from 13 games. Same story with his mark numbers 79 marks in 2013 from 12 games v 91 in 2014 from 13 games. It's a progression, sure, but the rate of development I would class only as mild whereas McKenzie's growth this season was rapid.

Those are the numbers I am most interested in with rate of improvement what I use to measure upside.

The other factor I include in that calculation is attributes and whether their attributes are compatible by position and whether they have dominant attributes by position. I assess McKenzie to have a number of attributes that by position make him dominant, his pure marking ability is without equal in this draft as a guy who 1v1 and in pack situations will take the mark through superior body work and superior strength of marking, in the air he can fly for it with his vertical leap testing inside the top 10 and critically he takes it at the highest point but then has the strength of hands to consistently take it overhead regardless of contact. Then on the lead he is is incredibly explosive and can break away from defenders in a straight line and he on the lead can also go through opposition defenders such is his power.
Wright on the other hand just doesn't have that one attribute that makes him a dominant forward. He's a super clean mark overhead but if a guy hits him or has him in a wrestle he's not taking the mark. The only situation he is really hard to defend, strange as it is for a 203cm guy, but on the lead just with his pace he can breakaway and take some clean marks when he creates that separation.

Wright I give some leeway because of the pressure of being touted as the number one overall selection and with that tag you know guys are really preparing specifically to matchup on him, and I still like his scope to develop but McKenzie for me, if he gets drafted by a club who can develop talent well and I'm really excited to see how dominant he can become.

 

[strauchnyy]

KM, what are your thoughts on Sean McLaren? How does he rate against other key defenders? Does he stop his direct opponent and is he good 1-1? What are his strengths/weaknesses?

I note he was a member of the AIS squad, yet is hardly mentioned on these draft boards or in the media...

With zero replacements for Lonergen in 1/2 years, we really need to look at a key defender in this draft, and if we don't get one at 10 we will need to get one with a later pick. I can't seem to find him in your draft and was wondering whether he has a decent chance of making it at AFL level.

 

[gothedons]

Your interpretation of Reece McKenzie's numbers is the most common interpretation but I see his stats differently.

Prior to July Reece was playing a key forward role where he rotated into the ruck. Personally I found that ruined his rhythm up front and he just couldn't find the continuity.

From July onward Reece really started to dominate and the only game he didn't from that point onward kick multiple goals in was v Oakleigh who won the TAC Cup premiership and had arguably the two best shutdown key defenders in the TAC Cup in Hugh Beasley who has hardly lost a matchup deep in defense, then Darcy Moore who also had a terrific season primarily used as a shutdown key defender.

Additionally worth noting with McKenzie is the drastic rise in the numbers he was achieving.
The first 5 games he had: 2, 3, 1, 1 and 1 goal.
The next 5 games he had: 10, 1, 7, 6 and 3 goals.

And his mark totals followed a similar theme:
The first 5 games he had: 4, 6, 1, 9 and 3 marks per game.
In the next 5 games he had: 13, 4, 12, 13 and 6 marks per game.

My recommendation would be to graph that and see what that looks like. It's a heavy rate of improvement and having not played footy last year, playing basketball instead, you could see game after game McKenzie just grew in confidence and comfort and his game developed rapidly going from a mediocre start to the season to the dominant key forward in the TAC Cup (other than McCartin who we hardly saw). Having not spent as much time in a footballing program and not being a part of the AIS etc you put McKenzie in a good AFL program and there is no reason why he cannot continue to rapidly improve his game.

--
Given you mention Wright I would strongly encourage you to plot Wright's growth from 2013 to 2014 as a gauge for his rate of improvement.
The basics are that in 2013 Wright kicked 27 goals from 12 games compared in 2014 to 32 goals from 13 games. Same story with his mark numbers 79 marks in 2013 from 12 games v 91 in 2014 from 13 games. It's a progression, sure, but the rate of development I would class only as mild whereas McKenzie's growth this season was rapid.

Those are the numbers I am most interested in with rate of improvement what I use to measure upside.

The other factor I include in that calculation is attributes and whether their attributes are compatible by position and whether they have dominant attributes by position. I assess McKenzie to have a number of attributes that by position make him dominant, his pure marking ability is without equal in this draft as a guy who 1v1 and in pack situations will take the mark through superior body work and superior strength of marking, in the air he can fly for it with his vertical leap testing inside the top 10 and critically he takes it at the highest point but then has the strength of hands to consistently take it overhead regardless of contact. Then on the lead he is is incredibly explosive and can break away from defenders in a straight line and he on the lead can also go through opposition defenders such is his power.
Wright on the other hand just doesn't have that one attribute that makes him a dominant forward. He's a super clean mark overhead but if a guy hits him or has him in a wrestle he's not taking the mark. The only situation he is really hard to defend, strange as it is for a 203cm guy, but on the lead just with his pace he can breakaway and take some clean marks when he creates that separation.

Wright I give some leeway because of the pressure of being touted as the number one overall selection and with that tag you know guys are really preparing specifically to matchup on him, and I still like his scope to develop but McKenzie for me, if he gets drafted by a club who can develop talent well and I'm really excited to see how dominant he can become.

Without personally having seen much of McKenzie in games its all about how you read the stats... you see the growth potential, I see 2 consistent years vs. 4 good games... I do however agree with you on the stand out feature but feel Wright's versatility and ability in ruck/fwd will help him over this hurdle... needs tim definately improve his contested marking though to become an elite at AFL level

 

[Knightmare]

I heard Toohmey on afl tonight saying Laverde has even cooled. DeGoey now coming into calculation for the Pies. This year is more like musical chairs , shuffles so often that the ones who get picked earlier than others could just be the on in favor at that point in time.
He even said the Saints still not sure who they pick. If they do go McCartin , Melb will fall over themselves calling Brayshaw and Pettracca.

If anyone cal get the top 20 right this year they will be as much knowledgeable as lucky.

Emma Quayle did a terrific job some years back getting her first round extremely close to perfect, but I don't think anyone will get the top 20 100% correct.

With Collingwood you can never quite know what they'll do with that early pick. I certainly don't.

St Kilda have an interesting dilemma with Petracca v McCartin and they'll have an interesting draft.

McCartin for me is the most dominant guy in the TAC Cup but my condition to picking him would be height and health. If he passes the health checks and the medicos are certain his diabetes will not adversely affect him and if he is truely 194cm, or even 193cm. Tick those boxes and he would be top of my draft board, but in both categories I have my doubts so I'd be going the Petracca route.

St Kilda have a really good opportunity in this draft to build some foundation pieces to their puzzle.

If I was the Saints recruiter I'd be taking..
1. Christian Petracca
21. Reece McKenzie (should be available)
22. Connor Blakely (not certain to be there but I like his chances of getting through)
41. Dean Gore (again not certain to be available but if he is a terrific piece to build with)
--
Rookie draft if the Saints want pace or a small forward there is always someone available. Maybe Toby McLean falls through as a small forward as my personal favourite, otherwise an Ed Langdon may fall through, Jayden Short should be there and be used either on a wing or up forward, Caleb Daniel would be terrific and I'd take him early rookie draft.

KM, what are your thoughts on Sean McLaren? How does he rate against other key defenders? Does he stop his direct opponent and is he good 1-1? What are his strengths/weaknesses?

I note he was a member of the AIS squad, yet is hardly mentioned on these draft boards or in the media...

With zero replacements for Lonergen in 1/2 years, we really need to look at a key defender in this draft, and if we don't get one at 10 we will need to get one with a later pick. I can't seem to find him in your draft and was wondering whether he has a decent chance of making it at AFL level.

I have a mate who I've been to a couple of games with who loves Sean McLaren. I'm less certain. The issue with McLaren is he is still more a ruckman. He's well built, moves well for a big and can take a grab, and at 197cm he isn't playing through the ruck at AFL level so key defence if he is to find a position will need to be his niche. I just haven't seen him exposed enough to the position but with other key defenders who are proven performers I'd lean towards taking them first.

As a rookie pick McLaren would be a good option to consider but other than a brief glimpse earlier in the year and from memory with AIS he hasn't had much of a chance to learn the position.

 

[grundog49]

Besides Paul Ahern who could we take at pick 14? (I like Connor Blakley)

 

[MightyDons4]

Besides Paul Ahern who could we take at pick 14? (I like Connor Blakley)

Menadue, Goddard, Marchback and Duggan are all possibilities.

 

[Trav 20]

McCartin for me is the most dominant guy in the TAC Cup but my condition to picking him would be height and health. If he passes the health checks and the medicos are certain his diabetes will not adversely affect him and if he is truely (sic) 194cm, or even 193cm. Tick those boxes and he would be top of my draft board, but in both categories I have my doubts so I'd be going the Petracca route.

These photos obviously won't be definitive, but they give a reasonable idea of whether McCartin is 190 cm, as you assert, or 193/194 as supposed.

Here McCartin is standing next to former AFL great Mickey Turner (183 cm) and the 196 cm Hugh Goddard:

Nelson is 188 cm, however, as he's clearly standing in front he'll appear taller and slightly out of context.

McCartin's shoulders are nearly at the level of Goddard and he's certainly closer in height to Goddard than Turner. To believe your theory (that he's 190 cm) he'd be roughly half way between Goddard and Turner, which clearly isn't the case.

And just to put Nelson's height into perspective - the following photo of Darcy Moore (199 cm) and Peter Moore (198 cm) shows how standing in front distorts height.

Goddard looks 2-3 cm taller than McCartin and McCartin looks at least 10 cm taller than Turner.

None of this is definitive, but it's enough for me to say that your assertions McCartin is 190 cm are clearly incorrect.

The only other photo I could see that was remotely interesting was McCartin standing alongside the 198 cm Sam Durdin. Durdin looks about 4 cm taller, i.e. about right. Their knees are at the same level, as are their hips and shoulders, but McCartin appears to have a short neck, which may give the impressions he's shorter than he is.

Once again, McCartin looks closer in height to Durdin than the 186 cm Petracca. The top of Petracca's head comes up to McCartin's eyebrows, while the top of McCartin's head comes up to Durdin's hairline.

And did you really think McCartin was shorter than the 191 cm Scott Pendlebury ?

Anyway, case solved. McCartin is around the 193 - 194 cm as stated.

 

[yarm]

Emma Quayle did a terrific job some years back getting her first round extremely close to perfect, but I don't think anyone will get the top 20 100% correct.

With Collingwood you can never quite know what they'll do with that early pick. I certainly don't.

St Kilda have an interesting dilemma with Petracca v McCartin and they'll have an interesting draft.

McCartin for me is the most dominant guy in the TAC Cup but my condition to picking him would be height and health. If he passes the health checks and the medicos are certain his diabetes will not adversely affect him and if he is truely 194cm, or even 193cm. Tick those boxes and he would be top of my draft board, but in both categories I have my doubts so I'd be going the Petracca route.

St Kilda have a really good opportunity in this draft to build some foundation pieces to their puzzle.

If I was the Saints recruiter I'd be taking..
1. Christian Petracca
21. Reece McKenzie (should be available)
22. Connor Blakely (not certain to be there but I like his chances of getting through)
41. Dean Gore (again not certain to be available but if he is a terrific piece to build with)
--
Rookie draft if the Saints want pace or a small forward there is always someone available. Maybe Toby McLean falls through as a small forward as my personal favourite, otherwise an Ed Langdon may fall through, Jayden Short should be there and be used either on a wing or up forward, Caleb Daniel would be terrific and I'd take him early rookie draft.



I have a mate who I've been to a couple of games with who loves Sean McLaren. I'm less certain. The issue with McLaren is he is still more a ruckman. He's well built, moves well for a big and can take a grab, and at 197cm he isn't playing through the ruck at AFL level so key defence if he is to find a position will need to be his niche. I just haven't seen him exposed enough to the position but with other key defenders who are proven performers I'd lean towards taking them first.

As a rookie pick McLaren would be a good option to consider but other than a brief glimpse earlier in the year and from memory with AIS he hasn't had much of a chance to learn the position.

Yes, it was a new role for him, but showed promise in performance against Goddard and Quinten Lynch. http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-05-28/eyecatchers-round-one

 

[yarm]

Emma Quayle did a terrific job some years back getting her first round extremely close to perfect, but I don't think anyone will get the top 20 100% correct.

With Collingwood you can never quite know what they'll do with that early pick. I certainly don't.

St Kilda have an interesting dilemma with Petracca v McCartin and they'll have an interesting draft.

McCartin for me is the most dominant guy in the TAC Cup but my condition to picking him would be height and health. If he passes the health checks and the medicos are certain his diabetes will not adversely affect him and if he is truely 194cm, or even 193cm. Tick those boxes and he would be top of my draft board, but in both categories I have my doubts so I'd be going the Petracca route.

St Kilda have a really good opportunity in this draft to build some foundation pieces to their puzzle.

If I was the Saints recruiter I'd be taking..
1. Christian Petracca
21. Reece McKenzie (should be available)
22. Connor Blakely (not certain to be there but I like his chances of getting through)
41. Dean Gore (again not certain to be available but if he is a terrific piece to build with)
--
Rookie draft if the Saints want pace or a small forward there is always someone available. Maybe Toby McLean falls through as a small forward as my personal favourite, otherwise an Ed Langdon may fall through, Jayden Short should be there and be used either on a wing or up forward, Caleb Daniel would be terrific and I'd take him early rookie draft.



I have a mate who I've been to a couple of games with who loves Sean McLaren. I'm less certain. The issue with McLaren is he is still more a ruckman. He's well built, moves well for a big and can take a grab, and at 197cm he isn't playing through the ruck at AFL level so key defence if he is to find a position will need to be his niche. I just haven't seen him exposed enough to the position but with other key defenders who are proven performers I'd lean towards taking them first.

As a rookie pick McLaren would be a good option to consider but other than a brief glimpse earlier in the year and from memory with AIS he hasn't had much of a chance to learn the position.

Yes, it was a new role for McLaren, but showed promise in performance against Goddard and Quinten Lynch.http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-05-28/eyecatchers-round-one

 

[Knightmare]

Besides Paul Ahern who could we take at pick 14? (I like Connor Blakley)

Goddard or Durdin if there.

Otherwise Marchbank depending on the evaluation of his best position makes sense.

Maybe an Ahern, Cockatoo or Garlett could be further options.