Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[TheJaegerBomb]

Do you think Caleb Daniel will be drafted in the ND Knightmare? Or at all?

 

[yarm]

Emma Quayle did a terrific job some years back getting her first round extremely close to perfect, but I don't think anyone will get the top 20 100% correct.

With Collingwood you can never quite know what they'll do with that early pick. I certainly don't.

St Kilda have an interesting dilemma with Petracca v McCartin and they'll have an interesting draft.

McCartin for me is the most dominant guy in the TAC Cup but my condition to picking him would be height and health. If he passes the health checks and the medicos are certain his diabetes will not adversely affect him and if he is truely 194cm, or even 193cm. Tick those boxes and he would be top of my draft board, but in both categories I have my doubts so I'd be going the Petracca route.

St Kilda have a really good opportunity in this draft to build some foundation pieces to their puzzle.

If I was the Saints recruiter I'd be taking..
1. Christian Petracca
21. Reece McKenzie (should be available)
22. Connor Blakely (not certain to be there but I like his chances of getting through)
41. Dean Gore (again not certain to be available but if he is a terrific piece to build with)
--
Rookie draft if the Saints want pace or a small forward there is always someone available. Maybe Toby McLean falls through as a small forward as my personal favourite, otherwise an Ed Langdon may fall through, Jayden Short should be there and be used either on a wing or up forward, Caleb Daniel would be terrific and I'd take him early rookie draft.



I have a mate who I've been to a couple of games with who loves Sean McLaren. I'm less certain. The issue with McLaren is he is still more a ruckman. He's well built, moves well for a big and can take a grab, and at 197cm he isn't playing through the ruck at AFL level so key defence if he is to find a position will need to be his niche. I just haven't seen him exposed enough to the position but with other key defenders who are proven performers I'd lean towards taking them first.

As a rookie pick McLaren would be a good option to consider but other than a brief glimpse earlier in the year and from memory with AIS he hasn't had much of a chance to learn the position.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, is Durdin a good stopper?

I see he plays a bit like Carlisle, but can he develop into a no.1 defender and does he actually stop his direct opponent (the no.1 forward)?

With our defence, we will have Taylor for a another 4 or so years to play CHB and I rate Jake Kolo as a third tall to take over Rivers, but we will be needing someone to take the reigns from Lonergen shortly.

Assuming Goddard is taken by GWS, who do you rate as a better fit for Geelong's ageing defence, Lever or Durdin?

Durdin in many of the games I've seen of him this year has played through the ruck and through the u18 champs I best recall one of his games in the front half where his leading was to put in plainly questionable.

Down back I imagine Durdin should be a fine stopper. He seems a natural intercept mark as someone who will get back in the hole, read it well and take the grab. But with his length, not only his height but long arms but then athletic traits with his quickness, agility and leap I expect if he doesn't have a defensive side to his game that he can develop it. But Durdin could also develop that ability to play forward and is very similar to Jake Carlisle at the same stage as someone who could while he looks more comfortable down back given his length, ability to take it at the highest point, read the flight and athletic traits to play at either end.

Lever for me is the better get ahead of Durdin. Lever is the more advanced player and is a more dominant talent as a much better performed player and a more productive rebounder who in his own right can win his matchups.

I don't see either of Durdin or Lever becoming another Lonergan, perhaps as a rookie a Michael Hartley would suffice as someone a few years older who can beat his man at full back. Otherwise there are other options late draft who could be suitable choices in that same role with plenty of key defence depth available this year.

Check out stats on Sean McLaren against Wright in the last Sandy/Calder game out of interest. Best on ground. Impressive at 198cm against Wright. Shhh, don't tell anybody! Footage on McLaren on AFL Eyecatchers Round 1 and AFL compilation. http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-05-28/eyecatchers-round-one
http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-09-22/draft-prospect-sean-mclaren

Don't get too excited about a guy toweling up Wright. It happens more than you'd think.

But that back half role is what McLaren needs to develop into.

Do you think Caleb Daniel will be drafted in the ND Knightmare? Or at all?

My guess would be Daniel will not get selected in the national draft. From all reports though he's trying his heart out and working on improving his explosiveness so I'd like while there is no guarantee of this either that he goes as a rookie. The kid has the talent but also the want. If he gets his chance I think he can surprise some clubs.

You give some good feedback. Might not always agree, but I like the input!

I've over time come to find the more two people know the less likely they are to agree, particularly when it comes to the draft.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Knighters.

When did you start following young talent?
Was it the year of BJ getting drafted?

Next part.

Officially or unofficially, when did you start doing phantoms?

 

[grundog49]

Hey KM, two questions for you

Do you reckon we could get Declan Hamilton with our 2nd or 3rd pick?

And what is a comparison for Declan Hamilton?

 

[Knightmare]

Knighters.

When did you start following young talent?
Was it the year of BJ getting drafted?

Next part.

Officially or unofficially, when did you start doing phantoms?

As a kid probably from the age of 5 I was always busy writing up best 22s, fantasy trade scenarios. It's what I most enjoyed doing.

But the draft I got into later not really knowing much about it or knowing how to follow it - and not being exposed to bigfooty or any other places where the draft was so much as a topic of conversation.

My interest specifically in junior footy came about after watching the 2008 TAC Cup Grand final and my interest began then - watching Steele Sidebottom kick his 10 goals and have his 30 disposals, watching Sam Wright among others who also performed strongly on the day. In September 2009 I discovered bigfooty and had my first attempted my first phantom draft. At the time I was only a youtube footage watcher. From 2010 I started to more seriously follow the juniors and I've stepped up my level of interest and what I've done with every season, attending more and more games, watching more and more games and more competitions online. 2012 was about the stage where I started to get the top 10 type talents in my power rankings probably a little better than the real recruiters (not that the rest of my rankings were close). 2013 I stepped it up by covered a wider range of talent and getting more bios up, and this year I've gone for quality of bio. And next year if I'm back on bigfooty I'll find a way to take step things up again - perhaps this is further, deeper statistical analysis, perhaps this is more of a focus on the lower rated talents and nailing those picks or perhaps something else.

Hey KM, two questions for you

Do you reckon we could get Declan Hamilton with our 2nd or 3rd pick?

And what is a comparison for Declan Hamilton?

Hamilton should go around the 2nd/3rd round mark, or so it seems rumoured.

No comparison for Hamilton comes immediately to mind. Hamilton is stylistically a wanna-be Didak. Has class with his ball use, good vision and some tricks around goal but not that same consistency of disposal and not as well rounded a game and isn't nearly in the same class. He has his fans but the games I've seen of him I've left feeling underwhelmed and feeling like the consistency by foot just wasn't there when it's supposed to be his primary weapon.

 

[Old Campaigner]

My interest specifically in junior footy came about after watching the 2008 TAC Cup Grand final and my interest began then - watching Steele Sidebottom kick his 10 goals and have his 30 disposals, watching Sam Wright among others who also performed strongly on the day. In September 2009 I discovered bigfooty and had my first attempted my first phantom draft. At the time I was only a youtube footage watcher. From 2010 I started to more seriously follow the juniors and I've stepped up my level of interest and what I've done with every season, attending more and more games, watching more and more games and more competitions online. 2012 was about the stage where I started to get the top 10 type talents in my power rankings probably a little better than the real recruiters (not that the rest of my rankings were close). 2013 I stepped it up by covered a wider range of talent and getting more bios up, and this year I've gone for quality of bio. And next year if I'm back on bigfooty I'll find a way to take step things up again - perhaps this is further, deeper statistical analysis, perhaps this is more of a focus on the lower rated talents and nailing those picks or perhaps something else.

Have you gone back and looked at your older player rankings and compared them to how the players are currently performing? I imagine that is the sort of thing that would interest people in clubland more than basing a phantom draft on rumours in the media.

 

[yarm]

Durdin in many of the games I've seen of him this year has played through the ruck and through the u18 champs I best recall one of his games in the front half where his leading was to put in plainly questionable.

Down back I imagine Durdin should be a fine stopper. He seems a natural intercept mark as someone who will get back in the hole, read it well and take the grab. But with his length, not only his height but long arms but then athletic traits with his quickness, agility and leap I expect if he doesn't have a defensive side to his game that he can develop it. But Durdin could also develop that ability to play forward and is very similar to Jake Carlisle at the same stage as someone who could while he looks more comfortable down back given his length, ability to take it at the highest point, read the flight and athletic traits to play at either end.

Lever for me is the better get ahead of Durdin. Lever is the more advanced player and is a more dominant talent as a much better performed player and a more productive rebounder who in his own right can win his matchups.

I don't see either of Durdin or Lever becoming another Lonergan, perhaps as a rookie a Michael Hartley would suffice as someone a few years older who can beat his man at full back. Otherwise there are other options late draft who could be suitable choices in that same role with plenty of key defence depth available this year.



Don't get too excited about a guy toweling up Wright. It happens more than you'd think.

But that back half role is what McLaren needs to develop into.



My guess would be Daniel will not get selected in the national draft. From all reports though he's trying his heart out and working on improving his explosiveness so I'd like while there is no guarantee of this either that he goes as a rookie. The kid has the talent but also the want. If he gets his chance I think he can surprise some clubs.



I've over time come to find the more two people know the less likely they are to agree, particularly when it comes to the draft.

Haha, fair enough! It's all good fun, but in the end, it happens on the day and that's that!

 

[Dan87]

Great to hear about your scouting passion, Pick 37 for the swans, maybe you're good enough to pick it? Assuming best available and they don't go KPD.

And they prioritise, dual sided kicking, strong overhead, Legspeed as desirable qualities. What's a few names that stick out.

Markov? Does he kick on his left?

 

[Men of Steele]

Knighters.

When did you start following young talent?
Was it the year of BJ getting drafted?

Next part.

Officially or unofficially, when did you start doing phantoms?

In the early stages of the Boer War

 

[Flandersss]

Hey KM, great phantom as usual.

Just wondering which one of these combos are the most realistic to happen?

1. Christian Petracca/Paddy McCartin

21. Lachie Weller/Liam Duggan/Connor Blakely/ Nakia Cockatoo/Connor Menadue/Corey Ellis/Brayden Maynard/Clem Smith/Tom Lamb

22. Kyle Langford/Caleb Marchbank/Oscar McDonald/Jarrod Garlett/Alex Neal Bullen/Jackson Nelson/Reece McKenzie

41. Ed Vickers Willis/ Touk Miller/ Harrison Wigg/Damien Cavka/Toby McLean/Dean Gore/Josh Deluca/Tyler Keitel/Lukas Webb/Dylan Vanjo Rainbow/Dan Mckenzie


I would be stoked with:

1. Christian Petracca

21. Liam Duggan/Connor Blakely

22. Caleb Marchbank/Reece McKenzie

41. Touk Miller/Dean Gore

 

[RedmanWasHere]

In the early stages of the Boer War

Maybe it was around the Battle of Hastings in 1066.

 

[MyLittleSloaney]

Hey KM, great phantom as usual.

Just wondering which one of these combos are the most realistic to happen?

1. Christian Petracca/Paddy McCartin

21. Lachie Weller/Liam Duggan/Connor Blakely/ Nakia Cockatoo/Connor Menadue/Corey Ellis/Brayden Maynard/Clem Smith/Tom Lamb

22. Kyle Langford/Caleb Marchbank/Oscar McDonald/Jarrod Garlett/Alex Neal Bullen/Jackson Nelson/Reece McKenzie

41. Ed Vickers Willis/ Touk Miller/ Harrison Wigg/Damien Cavka/Toby McLean/Dean Gore/Josh Deluca/Tyler Keitel/Lukas Webb/Dylan Vanjo Rainbow/Dan Mckenzie


I would be stoked with:

1. Christian Petracca

21. Liam Duggan/Connor Blakely

22. Caleb Marchbank/Reece McKenzie

41. Touk Miller/Dean Gore

What a ridiculous question

 

[Flandersss]

What a ridiculous question

How? I'm asking a draft expert on what outcome is most likely for my team.

 

[MyLittleSloaney]

How? I'm asking a draft expert on what outcome is most likely for my team.

Just have a good think about what what makes a good question on this thread. Asking someone to tell you who st kilda will pick with their first four picks is dumb.

If KM gives you four names to go with those four picks, only one of those will realistically eventuate. Just wait two weeks and you'll find out.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

Hey KM, great phantom as usual.

Just wondering which one of these combos are the most realistic to happen?

1. Christian Petracca/Paddy McCartin

21. Lachie Weller/Liam Duggan/Connor Blakely/ Nakia Cockatoo/Connor Menadue/Corey Ellis/Brayden Maynard/Clem Smith/Tom Lamb

22. Kyle Langford/Caleb Marchbank/Oscar McDonald/Jarrod Garlett/Alex Neal Bullen/Jackson Nelson/Reece McKenzie

41. Ed Vickers Willis/ Touk Miller/ Harrison Wigg/Damien Cavka/Toby McLean/Dean Gore/Josh Deluca/Tyler Keitel/Lukas Webb/Dylan Vanjo Rainbow/Dan Mckenzie


I would be stoked with:

1. Christian Petracca

21. Liam Duggan/Connor Blakely

22. Caleb Marchbank/Reece McKenzie

41. Touk Miller/Dean Gore

I don't think it's a dumb question, but I think you're a bit optimistic who will land in the twenties. I can't see Marchbank and Duggan lasting that long, but who knows. It's certainly a handy place to sit in the draft - when you have a great evenness across the top 25 and with the Saints having a genuine best-available attitude (a rarity in my mind).

 

[KJpie]

Knighter,

Like the looks of David Mennen at pick 85 under ager, your thoughts?

 

[Two Planks]

As a kid probably from the age of 5 I was always busy writing up best 22s, fantasy trade scenarios. It's what I most enjoyed doing.

Your showing your age because when i was 5 i was writing up my best 20s and there was no such thing as trading.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Hey KM, great phantom as usual.

Just wondering which one of these combos are the most realistic to happen?

1. Christian Petracca/Paddy McCartin

21. Lachie Weller/Liam Duggan/Connor Blakely/ Nakia Cockatoo/Connor Menadue/Corey Ellis/Brayden Maynard/Clem Smith/Tom Lamb

22. Kyle Langford/Caleb Marchbank/Oscar McDonald/Jarrod Garlett/Alex Neal Bullen/Jackson Nelson/Reece McKenzie

41. Ed Vickers Willis/ Touk Miller/ Harrison Wigg/Damien Cavka/Toby McLean/Dean Gore/Josh Deluca/Tyler Keitel/Lukas Webb/Dylan Vanjo Rainbow/Dan Mckenzie


I would be stoked with:

1. Christian Petracca

21. Liam Duggan/Connor Blakely

22. Caleb Marchbank/Reece McKenzie

41. Touk Miller/Dean Gore

If the Saints pick "best available" the likely choices for 21 and 22 will be the same.

 

[Knightmare]

Great to hear about your scouting passion, Pick 37 for the swans, maybe you're good enough to pick it? Assuming best available and they don't go KPD.

And they prioritise, dual sided kicking, strong overhead, Legspeed as desirable qualities. What's a few names that stick out.

Markov? Does he kick on his left?

If Sydney want pace at 37 it could Markov. Maybe Drummond. Ed Langdon perhaps as a small forward. They're all guys who can run in that range. Just at that stage not many are coming dual sided/strong overhead/with pace. Perhaps a Jermaine Miller-Lewis as a smokie. They're more the pacey types but they all only fill a maximum of two of those boxes.

Hey KM, great phantom as usual.

Just wondering which one of these combos are the most realistic to happen?

1. Christian Petracca/Paddy McCartin

21. Lachie Weller/Liam Duggan/Connor Blakely/ Nakia Cockatoo/Connor Menadue/Corey Ellis/Brayden Maynard/Clem Smith/Tom Lamb

22. Kyle Langford/Caleb Marchbank/Oscar McDonald/Jarrod Garlett/Alex Neal Bullen/Jackson Nelson/Reece McKenzie

41. Ed Vickers Willis/ Touk Miller/ Harrison Wigg/Damien Cavka/Toby McLean/Dean Gore/Josh Deluca/Tyler Keitel/Lukas Webb/Dylan Vanjo Rainbow/Dan Mckenzie


I would be stoked with:

1. Christian Petracca

21. Liam Duggan/Connor Blakely

22. Caleb Marchbank/Reece McKenzie

41. Touk Miller/Dean Gore

If I'm the Saints recruiter I'm taking Petracca, R.McKenzie, Blakely and Gore )unless someone high rated in my power rankings slides) with those picks. If one of those guys in the 20s is missing I'd be going best available slider as per my power rankings - and that could be anyone. Same story at 41 - which might be Bampton to guess.

Knighter,

Like the looks of David Mennen at pick 85 under ager, your thoughts?

For Murray, Mennen is the Seedsman equivalent on that team. Plays a similar games without his strengths being as prominent on the same level. But as a late year birthday admittedly interesting. Probably more a rookie pick if taken at all. If not drafted he's the kind of guy you watch out for again next year with interest as he is that bit younger.

 

[Gee Dub]

Knighter,

Like the looks of David Mennen at pick 85 under ager, your thoughts?

For Murray, Mennen is the Seedsman equivalent on that team. Plays a similar games without his strengths being as prominent on the same level. But as a late year birthday admittedly interesting. Probably more a rookie pick if taken at all. If not drafted he's the kind of guy you watch out for again next year with interest as he is that bit younger.

As someone who has watched a lot of Murray games this year, Mennen needs to work on his consistency. He is one of those guys who does something awesome one minute that has you thinking he will be a superstar and then two minutes later he will have a brain explosion. I rate him if he can close the gap between his best and worst, and is someone I'd be prepared to have a flyer at late or in the rookie draft but be warned tha this highlights are the actual highlights and there is a lot of frustrating stuff that he does that wasn't captured there.

 

[Flandersss]

If I'm the Saints recruiter I'm taking Petracca, R.McKenzie, Blakely and Gore )unless someone high rated in my power rankings slides) with those picks. If one of those guys in the 20s is missing I'd be going best available slider as per my power rankings - and that could be anyone. Same story at 41 - which might be Bampton to guess.

Thank you for the reply KM, appreciate your insights. Would personally love it if your outcome comes true with Petracca, Duggan, Neal-Bullen & Gore!

 

[Tiger Claw]

Your showing your age because when i was 5 i was writing up my best 20s and there was no such thing as trading.

...and so what. He's having a crack and giving time in serious thought. Got to give him points for his depth of analysis given he's not being flown around the country side to scout out talent. Is he some kind of draft genius - no, but I like his conviction and he has his reasoning which people can debate.

 

[Yoda_]

Don't get too excited about a guy toweling up Wright. It happens more than you'd think.

And he's been spoken about as a potential number 1?

 

[blueiris]

Is there a reason why no one has St Kilda taking key defensive players like Oscar McDonald. Do you have faith in Delaney and Fisher and Gilbert