Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Euku]

Around 40-50. There's a bit to like with him. Good ball winner but moves and uses the ball pretty well.

He was suitable for selection late draft. Just a puzzling pick for the Dogs though who don't need more midfielders and will find a hard time finding a spot for him.

I think eventually when our midfield is older they will move to other parts of the ground and some long term midfield prospects like garcia and callum porter are already developed, maybe a long term sustained success strategy

 

[weltschmerz]

I know you’d have taken Kemp instead of Weightman if you were recruiting for the Dogs. Who’d you have chosen for our other picks? Biggy Nyuon and Ben Sokol or Sam Lowson would have been interesting picks in my eyes.

 

[Knightmare]

I know you’d have taken Kemp instead of Weightman if you were recruiting for the Dogs. Who’d you have chosen for our other picks? Biggy Nyuon and Ben Sokol or Sam Lowson would have been interesting picks in my eyes.

More than happy to do the same with any team if anyone wants to give me that challenge.

WB picks:
15 - Weightman
53 - Butler
62 - Garcia

My picks: *all best availables
15 - Kemp (his height, speed, skill and versatility to play KPP would have been perfect for the Dogs)
53 - Nyuon (aside from McAsey as exciting of a key defender as any in the pool)
62 - Shute (went undrafted but would have been great on the outside or off a HBF)

If I had some element of control in the list management space I would also have gotten rid of: Fergus Greene, Brad Lynch and Lin Jong. I don't see any of them as future best 22 players and I feel with the three list positions they open up I could add three genuine contenders for if not genuine best 22 players in the form of mature players of AFL standard in positions of need who can compliment the existing playing group.

*Angus Baker and Ben Sokol I also would have regarded good additions and list fits if more picks were there to make. They're both guys where if the Dogs want to win now and improve their best 22, I could see either/or/both breaking into that team and displacing some others in defence and up forward respectively. Of those others undrafted I also liked Jye Bolton and Sam Lowson and like them as list fits, but with Ben Keays in the draft and in my view a little better, unless I could persuade Josh Walker to join as a delisted free agent rather than joining North Melbourne, Keays would have been that final addition as someone I felt was underused and largely wasted in his years with Brisbane.

 

[year of the cat]

More than happy to do the same with any team if anyone wants to give me that challenge.

WB picks:
15 - Weightman
53 - Butler
62 - Garcia

My picks: *all best availables
15 - Kemp (his height, speed, skill and versatility to play KPP would have been perfect for the Dogs)
53 - Nyuon (aside from McAsey as exciting of a key defender as any in the pool)
62 - Shute (went undrafted but would have been great on the outside or off a HBF)

If I had some element of control in the list management space I would also have gotten rid of: Fergus Greene, Brad Lynch and Lin Jong. I don't see any of them as future best 22 players and I feel with the three list positions they open up I could add three genuine contenders for if not genuine best 22 players in the form of mature players of AFL standard in positions of need who can compliment the existing playing group.

*Angus Baker and Ben Sokol I also would have regarded good additions and list fits if more picks were there to make. They're both guys where if the Dogs want to win now and improve their best 22, I could see either/or/both breaking into that team and displacing some others in defence and up forward respectively. Of those others undrafted I also liked Jye Bolton and Sam Lowson and like them as list fits, but with Ben Keays in the draft and in my view a little better, unless I could persuade Josh Walker to join as a delisted free agent rather than joining North Melbourne, Keays would have been that final addition as someone I felt was underused and largely wasted in his years with Brisbane.

Ok, interested to know how you would have picked for the Cats KM?

Personally would have gone -

14 - Robertson
17 - C.Stephens
24 - v happy with trade for 11. Would have taken Sharp if kept pick.
36 - Taheny

Rookie - would have taken either Finlay or Hilder with a pick.

 

[Knightmare]

Ok, interested to know how you would have picked for the Cats KM?

Personally would have gone -

14 - Robertson
17 - C.Stephens
24 - v happy with trade for 11. Would have taken Sharp if kept pick.
36 - Taheny

Rookie - would have taken either Finlay or Hilder with a pick.

The pick of 27 for Gold Coast's 2020 first round priority pick and 64 you'd do every day of the week. Doesn't matter who is available at 27.

The trade with Essendon while its a fair bit of future value out, I like getting Nyuon, particularly in Geelong's situation, and knowing Richmond and GWS had interest getting in at 50 even with my own views on talent is the spot I would have targeted to move into, albeit with my own very different plan.

16 - Kemp
19 - Robertson
41 - Byrnes
50 - Nyuon
RD
14 - Shute

It's a draft that would have really regenerated Geelong's midfield and secured the club's key position stocks with Nyuon in defence and Kemp having that capacity to play either mid or KPP. Shute on the outside for something different. I like my best availables, but I also like the list fits the group offer.

If I had the opportunity to tinker with the list further I would have let go of Zach Guthrie, Jed Bews and Blake Schlensog as a rookie and secured Angus Baker and Ben Keays in the national draft with Ben Sokol as a rookie.

It's another case of clubs being conservative and keeping some depth and/or guys who don't look developable ahead of adding state league talent or in the case of Keays ready-to-go talent that can contribute now.

Had Josh Walker suggested he would have committed as a delisted free agent, I'd have taken him and not worried about bringing back Lachie Henderson as the younger and better key defender more likely to be able to contribute in 2020 and beyond.

 

[year of the cat]

The pick of 27 for Gold Coast's 2020 first round priority pick and 64 you'd do every day of the week. Doesn't matter who is available at 27.

The trade with Essendon while its a fair bit of future value out, I like getting Nyuon, particularly in Geelong's situation, and knowing Richmond and GWS had interest getting in at 50 even with my own views on talent is the spot I would have targeted to move into, albeit with my own very different plan.

16 - Kemp
19 - Robertson
41 - Byrnes
50 - Nyuon
RD
14 - Shute

It's a draft that would have really regenerated Geelong's midfield and secured the club's key position stocks with Nyuon in defence and Kemp having that capacity to play either mid or KPP. Shute on the outside for something different. I like my best availables, but I also like the list fits the group offer.

If I had the opportunity to tinker with the list further I would have let go of Zach Guthrie, Jed Bews and Blake Schlensog as a rookie and secured Angus Baker and Ben Keays in the national draft with Ben Sokol as a rookie.

It's another case of clubs being conservative and keeping some depth and/or guys who don't look developable ahead of adding state league talent or in the case of Keays ready-to-go talent that can contribute now.

Had Josh Walker suggested he would have committed as a delisted free agent, I'd have taken him and not worried about bringing back Lachie Henderson as the younger and better key defender more likely to be able to contribute in 2020 and beyond.

Although I like Kemp a lot, I don’t think we could afford to take a guy coming off an ACL. The risk of recurrence is just too great.

Agree we need more outside run. We are hoping that Kennerley comes through for some senior action in 2020. Positive signs of this on the training track apparently.

Thanks for your opinion. Interesting to read a range of views.

 

[Knightmare]

Although I like Kemp a lot, I don’t think we could afford to take a guy coming off an ACL. The risk of recurrence is just too great.

Agree we need more outside run. We are hoping that Kennerley comes through for some senior action in 2020. Positive signs of this on the training track apparently.

Thanks for your opinion. Interesting to read a range of views.

There is the chance of reoccurance but with junior prospects you have to give them the benefit of the doubt. Whether it's Chris Judd with his shoulders, Jake Stringer coming back from that broken leg. There are a lot of guys who have had major injuries as juniors and far outperformed their draft positions.

Brodie Kemp may/may not be that next guy. But with his talent, he's one I'd be taking a shot on in the teens.

If I was completely put off from taking Kemp for some medical reason, I'd otherwise be taking Robertson and then probably trading back a few spots and taking Gould who was never going to go first round or securing a future 2020 first round choice.

I don't think Geelong messed up in taking Stephens though. He wouldn't be my choice, but I like him none the less. So physically advanced and has the ball winning + acceleration out of there.

 

[year of the cat]

There is the chance of reoccurance but with junior prospects you have to give them the benefit of the doubt. Whether it's Chris Judd with his shoulders, Jake Stringer coming back from that broken leg. There are a lot of guys who have had major injuries as juniors and far outperformed their draft positions.

Brodie Kemp may/may not be that next guy. But with his talent, he's one I'd be taking a shot on in the teens.

If I was completely put off from taking Kemp for some medical reason, I'd otherwise be taking Robertson and then probably trading back a few spots and taking Gould who was never going to go first round or securing a future 2020 first round choice.

I don't think Geelong messed up in taking Stephens though. He wouldn't be my choice, but I like him none the less. So physically advanced and has the ball winning + acceleration out of there.

That’s true. But I think an ACL needs to be treated differently to a shoulder/broken leg. How many juniors sustaining ACL’s in their junior years have gone on to forge successful careers? I think of Troy and Dan Menzel, Clay Smith etc

Was a bit disappointed we passed on Robertson on draft night but having seen Tigers and Blues also leave him it makes you think that the go home factor might have scared the Vic teams off him. I personally don’t see his foot skills as being too bad to not take him high.

 

[Knightmare]

That’s true. But I think an ACL needs to be treated differently to a shoulder/broken leg. How many juniors sustaining ACL’s in their junior years have gone on to forge successful careers? I think of Troy and Dan Menzel, Clay Smith etc

Was a bit disappointed we passed on Robertson on draft night but having seen Tigers and Blues also leave him it makes you think that the go home factor might have scared the Vic teams off him. I personally don’t see his foot skills as being too bad to not take him high.

I can't immediately think of any who have made successful recoveries from ACLs. I'm sure there are several.

It's not the end of career sentence it once was 20 years ago any beyond. Or perhaps that's my perception? I'm sure others will help me out with some examples.

I share your view on Robertson. There were numerous clubs including Victorian clubs who would have taken Robertson from pick 15 but the wrong combination of clubs had picks and he dropped which sometimes happens with club draft boards varying from club to club.

 

[THE_GUN]

Hi Km , I see you rate Nyuon but if you were selecting for Richmond would you have selected Nyuon or Hilder

Also with Rance retiring would Hilder be your choice to replace on the list or which undrafted KPD would you be looking to bring into Richmond

 

[briztoon]

Was a bit disappointed we passed on Robertson on draft night but having seen Tigers and Blues also leave him it makes you think that the go home factor might have scared the Vic teams off him. I personally don’t see his foot skills as being too bad to not take him high.

After listening to Robertson speak post draft and on the clubs podcast, I don't believe there's a go home factor with Robertson.

He did say in the club podcast that he figured he was moving interstate as West Coast didn't have any early picks and he didn't believe he was in the frame for Fremantle's early picks. He had pegged Geelong as his likely destination, and when they passed on him, had no idea where he was going.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Km , I see you rate Nyuon but if you were selecting for Richmond would you have selected Nyuon or Hilder

Also with Rance retiring would Hilder be your choice to replace on the list or which undrafted KPD would you be looking to bring into Richmond

Nyuon is the pick for mine. Top 23 in my power rankings v 48.

I don't see a great deal of urgency to grab another key defender. Balta can step in at any time (if the club decide they want him in defence), Garthwaite got games this year and should keep improving then there is Nyuon who in the long term can become another Aliir Aliir. That's three good developing options aside from Astbury and Grimes who already do a great job. There would be other needs I'd pick for first personally in Richmond's situation, but that's because there are others who were overlooked I rate even more highly, but Hilder is one of four worthwhile key defenders who were overlooked. I also like Brodie Newman, Karl Finlay and Nicholas Murray. All of whom were on my draft board and players I viewed as developable.

Brodie Newman while he attracted seemingly no interest from clubs is my slightest of preferences of the key defenders to go undrafted. But that four I rate pretty evenly and don't see much separation between.

 

[Thetrader15]

OK, how about Adelaide (assuming the same pick swaps on the night).

6 - McAsey
24 - Schenberg
28 - Worrell
42 - O'Connor
48 - Gollant

Personally, I'd have gone for Taheny or Ralph-Smith at 48, and was hoping for Brock Smith or Rantall at 42, but you can't win them all.

No complaints here with the first three, maybe Sharp over Scheneberg but a toss of the coin.

 

[Thetrader15]

That’s true. But I think an ACL needs to be treated differently to a shoulder/broken leg. How many juniors sustaining ACL’s in their junior years have gone on to forge successful careers? I think of Troy and Dan Menzel, Clay Smith etc

Was a bit disappointed we passed on Robertson on draft night but having seen Tigers and Blues also leave him it makes you think that the go home factor might have scared the Vic teams off him. I personally don’t see his foot skills as being too bad to not take him high.

Jake Lever, I think there are a couple of other examples too.

 

[Knightmare]

OK, how about Adelaide (assuming the same pick swaps on the night).

6 - McAsey
24 - Schenberg
28 - Worrell
42 - O'Connor
48 - Gollant

Personally, I'd have gone for Taheny or Ralph-Smith at 48, and was hoping for Brock Smith or Rantall at 42, but you can't win them all.

No complaints here with the first three, maybe Sharp over Scheneberg but a toss of the coin.

6 - *Tom Green bid. GWS would match.
*Pick becomes 7 - Sam Flanders
24 - Will Gould
28 - *Finn Maginness bid. Hawthorn would match.
*Pick becomes 29 - Trent Rivers (hedging bets Byrnes who is my best available here would be available in the 40s as no genuine interest from clubs had come from teams before this point)
42 - Ryan Byrnes
48 - Bigoa Nyuon

*With Gould my choice at 24, Sydney wouldn't be trading for pick 25, so that Maginness bid and Rivers selection would in reality be pick 25 as Sydney only wanted the pick to move up for Gould. The only impact this would have is Adelaide wouldn't have gotten a future 3rd in exchange for a future 4th out of the trade.

Rookie draft
7 - Joshua Shute
21 - Ben Keays (presuming no other club would have taken)
31 - Angus Baker

*Had Keays been taken I would have taken (I had not heard any other interest so I don't think that would have been the case) Ben Sokol instead.

--
Like with all the other draft scenarios with all other clubs so far no need to venture outside my top-40 power rankings which is always a nice feeling including in the rookie draft so there is no feeling that I'm having to scrape the barrel.

And like the other club scenarios even by going best available I'm liking the combination of list fits. Adelaide need a good general forward/mid. Need the size and key stocks in defence which I'd give + a meaningful midfield boost with Flanders able to go through there, Rivers able through there or off half-back and Byrnes a genuine ball winning mid. Shute as a local I like on the outside. Keays I approve of and midfield or forward I feel has been underused and Baker adds further quality and rebound in defence.

 

[andleanback]

After listening to Robertson speak post draft and on the clubs podcast, I don't believe there's a go home factor with Robertson.

He did say in the club podcast that he figured he was moving interstate as West Coast didn't have any early picks and he didn't believe he was in the frame for Fremantle's early picks. He had pegged Geelong as his likely destination, and when they passed on him, had no idea where he was going.

Robertson is the type of kid that will want to win a flag at Brisbane and make every club that passed over him regret it.

 

[Knightmare]

Robertson is the type of kid that will want to win a flag at Brisbane and make every club that passed over him regret it.

Robertson was the best player during the Under-18 Championships. He outplayed Rowell and Anderson. Far outplayed Jackson. I'm not saying he's the best in the draft, but he is one of the best, most productive and most ready-to-go.

 

[Ekomaira]

what about St Kilda mate. obviously we had late picks so it might be a bit tricky. I'm pretty happy with the 3 guys we took

 

[mustang]

More than happy to do the same with any team if anyone wants to give me that challenge.

WB picks:
15 - Weightman
53 - Butler
62 - Garcia

My picks: *all best availables
15 - Kemp (his height, speed, skill and versatility to play KPP would have been perfect for the Dogs)
53 - Nyuon (aside from McAsey as exciting of a key defender as any in the pool)
62 - Shute (went undrafted but would have been great on the outside or off a HBF)

If I had some element of control in the list management space I would also have gotten rid of: Fergus Greene, Brad Lynch and Lin Jong. I don't see any of them as future best 22 players and I feel with the three list positions they open up I could add three genuine contenders for if not genuine best 22 players in the form of mature players of AFL standard in positions of need who can compliment the existing playing group.

*Angus Baker and Ben Sokol I also would have regarded good additions and list fits if more picks were there to make. They're both guys where if the Dogs want to win now and improve their best 22, I could see either/or/both breaking into that team and displacing some others in defence and up forward respectively. Of those others undrafted I also liked Jye Bolton and Sam Lowson and like them as list fits, but with Ben Keays in the draft and in my view a little better, unless I could persuade Josh Walker to join as a delisted free agent rather than joining North Melbourne, Keays would have been that final addition as someone I felt was underused and largely wasted in his years with Brisbane.

KM can you please do the Hawks.

 

[Knightmare]

what about St Kilda mate. obviously we had late picks so it might be a bit tricky. I'm pretty happy with the 3 guys we took

For me a straight-forward draft.

52 - Ryan Byrnes (this one the Saints nailed for mine)
64 - *Match bid on Biggy Nyuon!
RD
5 - Joshua Shute

Wouldn't have to venture outside my top-30 power rankings.

KM can you please do the Hawks.

13 - Brodie Kemp
29 - *Match Maginness bid
57 - Joshua Shute
PSD 2 - *I'd have preferred Josh Walker to Michael Hartley.
RD:
9: Angus Baker
23: Ben Sokol

With Deven Robertson one I liked, I would have also spoken to Richmond about Hawthorn 2020 first and second and third round pick swaps and passing back some late picks to Richmond for pick 21, 43 and 44 as a way of adding that Robertson/Byrnes/Biggy combination to restock. My suspicion is Richmond would have rejected the offer, seeming to want Dow.

Failing that, I would have done what I could to secure two of Richmond's picks in the 40s with the desire to snag Ryan Byrnes and Biggy Nyuon (rating them top 20 and top 25 respectively). It would have been interesting to have seen whether Richmond would have accepted an offer of Hawthorn's 2020 first for Richmond's 2020 first and the two picks. If not, I'd have been curious as to whether a further offer to swap future thirds may have done it. *I can't say I knew enough to instead get 46 and 54 from Richmond as there was some talk GWS might take Biggy and Richmond also had interest and could have taken him earlier though I sensed he more-so was to be considered in the 50s which proved right in the end but wasn't something I would have risked in the moment. The repercussions of such a trade if it were to go through would mean no Hartley, Shute moves down to rookie draft and Sokol goes undrafted.

 

[mustang]

For me a straight-forward draft.

52 - Ryan Byrnes (this one the Saints nailed for mine)
64 - *Match bid on Biggy Nyuon!
RD
5 - Joshua Shute

Wouldn't have to venture outside my top-30 power rankings.



13 - Brodie Kemp
29 - *Match Maginness bid
57 - Joshua Shute
PSD 2 - *I'd have preferred Josh Walker to Michael Hartley.
RD:
9: Angus Baker
23: Ben Sokol

With Deven Robertson one I liked, I would have also spoken to Richmond about Hawthorn 2020 first and second and third round pick swaps and passing back some late picks to Richmond for pick 21, 43 and 44 as a way of adding that Robertson/Byrnes/Biggy combination to restock. My suspicion is Richmond would have rejected the offer, seeming to want Dow.

Failing that, I would have done what I could to secure two of Richmond's picks in the 40s with the desire to snag Ryan Byrnes and Biggy Nyuon (rating them top 20 and top 25 respectively). It would have been interesting to have seen whether Richmond would have accepted an offer of Hawthorn's 2020 first for Richmond's 2020 first and the two picks. If not, I'd have been curious as to whether a further offer to swap future thirds may have done it. *I can't say I knew enough to instead get 46 and 54 from Richmond as there was some talk GWS might take Biggy and Richmond also had interest and could have taken him earlier though I sensed he more-so was to be considered in the 50s which proved right in the end but wasn't something I would have risked in the moment. The repercussions of such a trade if it were to go through would mean no Hartley, Shute moves down to rookie draft and Sokol goes undrafted.

If the Hawks has done the swap with Richmond would that have stuffed our chances with getting Downie next year or would we not need high picks to match to get him.

 

[Knightmare]

If the Hawks has done the swap with Richmond would that have stuffed our chances with getting Downie next year or would we not need high picks to match to get him.

Downie isn't looking like an early choice.

I see him as roughly a second round choice at this stage. He may as others improve end up a third rounder next year possibly depending on how he goes next year.

Hawthorn should be fine to match him irrespective of combination of picks available.

 

[Mego Red]

Jake Lever, I think there are a couple of other examples too.

Has Jake Lever had a successful career?

Did another knee, so far only one decent season.

 

[andleanback]

Downie isn't looking like an early choice.

I see him as roughly a second round choice at this stage. He may as others improve end up a third rounder next year possibly depending on how he goes next year.

Hawthorn should be fine to match him irrespective of combination of picks available.

Why would you have Downie falling as others improve, he’ll most likely improve as well. Downie will go top 25 imo

 

[Knightmare]

Has Jake Lever had a successful career?

Did another knee, so far only one decent season.

'One decent season' is a harsh assessment of Lever. I'd say he has had two and a half excellent seasons. 2016-2018, his last two seasons with Adelaide were excellent and that first half of 2018 for Melbourne he played a complete brand of football and was one of the best backs in the competition whether categorised as key or general.

Why would you have Downie falling as others improve, he’ll most likely improve as well. Downie will go top 25 imo

I currently have Downie around 25. He's not inside my top-20 and he'd be outside top-20 for most recruiters at this stage.

Each year I anticipate the late development of a number of prospects, so types I rate at a particular spot I assume will drop on average by 50%. eg. my 20th rated player would drop to around 30th, as I see more of others and some who have had less exposure or improve later. So based on that I may have Downie assuming average development to be rated late 30s by the end of next year.

With Downie I'll be watching this year to see whether he can start winning more of his own ball. He has a nice kick on him and moves well. Works hard both ways, but when the contested side of ones game isn't great, probability of AFL career is generally low, so he'll need to add that over the next 12 months, even though he's sure to remain more outside.

If Downie is to be someone I'd take first round. I'd want him to advance from his 16d per game to more like 25d per game with 10cp. And I'd say while possible it's against the odds.