Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Gysberts2Bate]

KM has the Brisbane-GC pick swap work out semi-decently for GC? I know Brisbane got Ely Smith last year, but it seems like there could be quite a gulf in quality between the GC pick 15 and Brisbane pick 21 that were swapped in that deal.

 

[Knightmare]

KM has the Brisbane-GC pick swap work out semi-decently for GC? I know Brisbane got Ely Smith last year, but it seems like there could be quite a gulf in quality between the GC pick 15 and Brisbane pick 21 that were swapped in that deal.

Ultimately it will all things said and done come down to who the clubs take with those respective picks.

If Ely Smith doesn't develop, then Gold Coast look fine. With the Brisbane first round pick coming so late, it doesn't read well on paper when you look at pick 16 this year v pick 19 (became 21 after bidding) + add in Gold Coast's second rounder (pick 21 this year currently), then the Hawthorn third rounder which got swapped. It's more one-sided than anyone could have guessed. But with Brisbane exceeding expectations on such a level like no one could have realistically expected, that's what has led to things looking so ordinary for Gold Coast when you consider the pick numbers in/out.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Ultimately it will all things said and done come down to who the clubs take with those respective picks.

If Ely Smith doesn't develop, then Gold Coast look fine. With the Brisbane first round pick coming so late, it doesn't read well on paper when you look at pick 16 this year v pick 19 (became 21 after bidding) + add in Gold Coast's second rounder (pick 21 this year currently), then the Hawthorn third rounder which got swapped. It's more one-sided than anyone could have guessed. But with Brisbane exceeding expectations on such a level like no one could have realistically expected, that's what has led to things looking so ordinary for Gold Coast when you consider the pick numbers in/out.

If Brisbane had stayed bottom 6 it would have been interesting if the AFL has still given GC pick 2, and potentially three top seven picks

 

[Glenny83]

Do you see Kemp being realistically taken by Crows at four? I think the lay-off next year wouldn’t faze AFC given a lot of youth will be given opportunity anyway.


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[Knightmare]

If Brisbane had stayed bottom 6 it would have been interesting if the AFL has still given GC pick 2, and potentially three top seven picks

Some merit to the argument though even with a bottom 6 pick Gold Coast's situation is so dire they still would really need the pick 2 realistically if they want to build a relevant and strong young core group to have coming through and sell new hope to their fans.

Perhaps it could have meant slightly modified assistance to what has resulted, but probably not drastically different. The AFL are invested in having two teams in QLD. Particularly with the state's population (some predictions suggest a 25% rise over the next 10-15 years) and Gold Coast's population set to continue growing at a strong rate also. So it's one of those things where there might not yet be that supporter base, but hang around long enough and do enough to make them succeed and eventually that supporter base should come for Gold Coast to become a solid enough franchise eventually.

Do you see Kemp being realistically taken by Crows at four? I think the lay-off next year wouldn’t faze AFC given a lot of youth will be given opportunity anyway.

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I haven't heard Kemp spoken about as being in the conversation for Adelaide at 4. My view is he's good enough where he should be in the conversation.

 

[jakefooty23]

What happened to Emerson Jeka?

 

[Davo-27]

What happened to Emerson Jeka?

nothing happened to him, but this is a concern

2017 - 1 game 0 goals
2018 - 14 games 10 goals
2019 - 10 games 7 goals (VM - 2 games 2 goals)

played defence for a game or 2 this year as his goals per game were a worry and was poor in defence, but he plays a good style of footy around the ground so might get drafted late if a team is looking for a high CHF?

 

[Knightmare]

What happened to Emerson Jeka?

Was invited to the national combine. He remains firmly in the selection mix. Good athlete, leads up well at the footy and has his fans but kicked only 7 goals from 10 games which ultimately isn't enough for me to feel comfortable selecting him as a key forward who is only good for 11d and 4.5m per game.

There were some this time last year who talked Jeka up as an early pick but I can't say I ever saw it. Have attributes is all well and good, but ultimately if you're not producing, you're not worthwhile.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

KM, this draft is thin for first round KPPs compared to other drafts, but it seems to me like there's a lot of later, high upside "potential" type KPPs. More so than other drafts. Is my read on that right? Worrell, Riccardi, Jones, De Koning, Hilder, even a couple of later rucks that people seem high on. I'd usually be of the idea that don't get too excited about KPPs unless they are first rounders, but there seems like there's actually some value late on them unlike previous drafts. A point of difference in this draft maybe, what do you think?

 

[jakefooty23]

Was invited to the national combine. He remains firmly in the selection mix. Good athlete, leads up well at the footy and has his fans but kicked only 7 goals from 10 games which ultimately isn't enough for me to feel comfortable selecting him as a key forward who is only good for 11d and 4.5m per game.

There were some this time last year who talked Jeka up as an early pick but I can't say I ever saw it. Have attributes is all well and good, but ultimately if you're not producing, you're not worthwhile.

nothing happened to him, but this is a concern

2017 - 1 game 0 goals
2018 - 14 games 10 goals
2019 - 10 games 7 goals (VM - 2 games 2 goals)

played defence for a game or 2 this year as his goals per game were a worry and was poor in defence, but he plays a good style of footy around the ground so might get drafted late if a team is looking for a high CHF?

Thanks, I remember hearing of him as a potential number 1 pick candidate and then noticed I hadn't seen him on many mockdrafts and thought that was strange. Also, who do you think fremantle will take with there picks? I'd be happy with Robertson and Stephens and then Henry as a matched pick

 

[RobbieK]

AFL phantom draft two rounds (post trade period): https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/27891050/expanded-afl-phantom-draft-risers-sliders-new-names

Interesting you have the Swans taking three players, the tallest of whom is 180cm.

Next season you would think we are taking Campbell and Gulden. Both of them are under 180cm too.

I would probably like one of those picks from this year to be a bigger bodied midfielder, otherwise we are going to be fielding the shortest midfield in the league in a few seasons!

 

[draftprodigy99]

curtis brown (calder) any chance ?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, this draft is thin for first round KPPs compared to other drafts, but it seems to me like there's a lot of later, high upside "potential" type KPPs. More so than other drafts. Is my read on that right? Worrell, Riccardi, Jones, De Koning, Hilder, even a couple of later rucks that people seem high on. I'd usually be of the idea that don't get too excited about KPPs unless they are first rounders, but there seems like there's actually some value late on them unlike previous drafts. A point of difference in this draft maybe, what do you think?

I wouldn't say high upside, but I'd say more-so speculative. Each have attributes but a lot of them don't have the performances on the board to take with confidence.

Worrell I think probably goes first round and Jones and De Koning not far outside it. Riccardi and Hilder may go later. With good development a few of them could have AFL careers.

There are a few ruckmen in the mix this year. It's not just Jackson, but Comben, Bryan and Jamieson are among those I see as likely to get picked second round onwwards.

Thanks, I remember hearing of him as a potential number 1 pick candidate and then noticed I hadn't seen him on many mockdrafts and thought that was strange. Also, who do you think fremantle will take with there picks? I'd be happy with Robertson and Stephens and then Henry as a matched pick

Never regarding Jeka a first round prospect it's poor judgement by anyone who had him inside their top 10s last year honestly. He has never performed on a level where I viewed him as an early pick.

Fremantle will look for mids in and out predominantly I imagine. Robertson, Stephens and Ash probably are those ideal list fits with those first two if a bid doesn't come on Henry and Fremantle would probably want one of those three.

Interesting you have the Swans taking three players, the tallest of whom is 180cm.

Next season you would think we are taking Campbell and Gulden. Both of them are under 180cm too.

I would probably like one of those picks from this year to be a bigger bodied midfielder, otherwise we are going to be fielding the shortest midfield in the league in a few seasons!

That is something I'm conscious of.

Brodie Kemp could be considered. Maybe a Lachlan Ash or Dylan Stephens could be considered but Serong is a different player to Campbell and Gulden. He plays taller, is more of a marking target up forward and ball winner through the midfield, so he's a different player.

It's just with the talk or Serong in the conversation for a lot of clubs as their 3rd/4th ranked player, 5th in some cases, for this version of the phantom draft I respected that.

curtis brown (calder) any chance ?

State combine invite. Possible, but against the odds. Had a good but not a great NAB League season.

 

[Lach72]

They'd probably get him for that.

Would still take Henry.
Then use 10 and 22.
And possibly look at on of our 2020 seconds for another pick in the early 20's

 

[collingwoodlove78]

Watts (SDFC) - Any chance this year?

 

[Knightmare]

Watts (SDFC) - Any chance this year?

Took part in the RookieMe combine. Interest feels limited. Was great last year as an underager winning Sandringham's B+F but hasn't made meaningful progress this year. Still one I'd promote late/rookie for a team needing a key defender. But just not sure the interest in clubland is there.

 

[bellpark]

Your phantom draft has both Robertson and Gould there at pick 14 For the Cats. Having seen Gould play several senior games in the SANFL finals he was such a cut above the rest (much like Rozee last year). I’m sure he can get a tank, and Robertson seems to be the complete player ready to go. A great position to be in but I am a bit shocked they would both be there then. Anyway, I really hope you are right, for the Cats sake.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Your thoughts on Isaac Wareham Knightmare?

 

[RobbieK]

That is something I'm conscious of.

Brodie Kemp could be considered. Maybe a Lachlan Ash or Dylan Stephens could be considered but Serong is a different player to Campbell and Gulden. He plays taller, is more of a marking target up forward and ball winner through the midfield, so he's a different player.

It's just with the talk or Serong in the conversation for a lot of clubs as their 3rd/4th ranked player, 5th in some cases, for this version of the phantom draft I respected that.

I don't have a problem with us picking either Serong or Kemp. In some ways I feel more comfortable with Serong due to Kemp's injury issues which meant that he has less exposed form as a midfielder. If it is Serong for our first round pick, though, then we need to be finding a bigger body (or even two) with our second round selections in my opinion.

 

[gawndog37]

Hey Knightmare what draft range do you see Kysiah Pickett and Ned Cahill going? These are two I'd like the dees to target by trading into the later few rounds to fill our need for a crumbing small forward. I think i'd rather go down this path than use a top 10 pick on a small forward like weightman who seems like more of a marking small forward anyways rather than a pressure/crumbing small forward.

Are there any other pressure/crumbing small forwards who could go late or in the rookie draft you like? Preferably mature age or someone who could make an instant impact next year.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Knightmare i am very keen to get robertson to the cats at 14 which you have occuring.

Do you have any mail or knowledge of how serious fremantle will look at him with one of their first two picks?? How likely is it he gets through to geelongs first pick.

 

[Knightmare]

Your phantom draft has both Robertson and Gould there at pick 14 For the Cats. Having seen Gould play several senior games in the SANFL finals he was such a cut above the rest (much like Rozee last year). I’m sure he can get a tank, and Robertson seems to be the complete player ready to go. A great position to be in but I am a bit shocked they would both be there then. Anyway, I really hope you are right, for the Cats sake.

Robertson very easily could be gone by Geelong's selection and could definitely go top 10, just depends on how some things play out. Gould is a good chance to be there.

Your thoughts on Isaac Wareham Knightmare?

Generates drive from defence but doesn't find a lot of it. Appropriate for consideration for selection late/rookie.

I don't have a problem with us picking either Serong or Kemp. In some ways I feel more comfortable with Serong due to Kemp's injury issues which meant that he has less exposed form as a midfielder. If it is Serong for our first round pick, though, then we need to be finding a bigger body (or even two) with our second round selections in my opinion.

Serong isn't a small guy. 179cm, 88kg. He has good strength to him.

Likely as others have mentioned with two really good Academy prospects sub 180cm next year, the other selections will likely be guys who aren't so short and for my three round phantom draft when I release that in a few weeks time unless there aren't any suitable options, that's probably the type I'll be sticking in there for Sydney unless I hear a strong specific rumour by then as to who Sydney may be considering.

Hey Knightmare what draft range do you see Kysiah Pickett and Ned Cahill going? These are two I'd like the dees to target by trading into the later few rounds to fill our need for a crumbing small forward. I think i'd rather go down this path than use a top 10 pick on a small forward like weightman who seems like more of a marking small forward anyways rather than a pressure/crumbing small forward.

Are there any other pressure/crumbing small forwards who could go late or in the rookie draft you like? Preferably mature age or someone who could make an instant impact next year.

Pickett I feel is a good chance mid-draft. Cahill later/rookie is well in the mix.

Sam Lowson is the guy if looking mature age late/rookie. Can crumb and pressure. Can also mark and hit the scoreboard.

Tyrone Thorne and Ryan Bennel are two others I like. If Gold Coast don't want him, I'd also say Paul-Oea has to scope to be one of the better pressure forwards and is another to consider targeting.

Knightmare i am very keen to get robertson to the cats at 14 which you have occuring.

Do you have any mail or knowledge of how serious fremantle will look at him with one of their first two picks?? How likely is it he gets through to geelongs first pick.

Fremantle I'm expecting have Robertson firmly in the mix with one of their two selections. Possible but far from certain that Robertson is there for Geelong on draft day. It's just a case of in that phantom he just happened to slide as it happened, rather than it being likely he is available to Geelong.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Robertson very easily could be gone by Geelong's selection and could definitely go top 10, just depends on how some things play out. Gould is a good chance to be there.



Generates drive from defence but doesn't find a lot of it. Appropriate for consideration for selection late/rookie.



Serong isn't a small guy. 179cm, 88kg. He has good strength to him.

Likely as others have mentioned with two really good Academy prospects sub 180cm next year, the other selections will likely be guys who aren't so short and for my three round phantom draft when I release that in a few weeks time unless there aren't any suitable options, that's probably the type I'll be sticking in there for Sydney unless I hear a strong specific rumour by then as to who Sydney may be considering.



Pickett I feel is a good chance mid-draft. Cahill later/rookie is well in the mix.

Sam Lowson is the guy if looking mature age late/rookie. Can crumb and pressure. Can also mark and hit the scoreboard.

Tyrone Thorne and Ryan Bennel are two others I like. If Gold Coast don't want him, I'd also say Paul-Oea has to scope to be one of the better pressure forwards and is another to consider targeting.



Fremantle I'm expecting have Robertson firmly in the mix with one of their two selections. Possible but far from certain that Robertson is there for Geelong on draft day. It's just a case of in that phantom he just happened to slide as it happened, rather than it being likely he is available to Geelong.

If geelong were to trade up to secure robertson, which pick do you see securing him? And what would get it done.

 

[Euku]

Could you see the dogs picking jeremy sharp?

 

[Knightmare]

If geelong were to trade up to secure robertson, which pick do you see securing him? And what would get it done.

Robertson should land somewhere 5-15. I wouldn't with what little I know about where he will land at the present time feel comfortable trading up as a Sydney could take him and wreck everything, or really any of those other teams in that range other than GWS and Western Bulldogs.

A question that might be easier to answer closer to the draft when more is known of the intentions of clubs in that range.

Could you see the dogs picking jeremy sharp?

Not sure if he would be top of the draft board, but possible and should be in the conversation as he would add a missing element.