Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Davo-27]

Was the Allies vs Vic Metro game today or was that cancelled because of Covid?

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Cancelled and to be played at another date, replaced by the VM V VC game at Windy Hill Tomorrow at noon.

 

[RUNVS]

Cancelled and to be played at another date, replaced by the VM V VC game at Windy Hill Tomorrow at noon.

Thanks

Nice of the AFL website to update the fixture.

 

[Knightmare]

Interesting finding and point of discussion:
From my top-40 and this is part of my analysis in my video but I ended up with:
Breakdown by state: x18 VIC, x9 SA, x7 WA, x3 QLD, x3 NSW/ACT

Less than half Victorians in my top-40 isn't great and something we haven't seen, and certainly nothing I've had happen on my own board before. Doesn't mean the ratio on draft day, but that's what really struck me in completing the exercise and expanding my power rankings out.

Video title: The collapse of junior footy in Victoria? July 2021 AFL Draft Power Rankings Tier List (top-40)

 

[Rusty Beam]

He's a generational midfielder who I would take at pick 1 over every other pick 1 with the exception of Rowell, since Gibbs in 2006 and quite possibly Hodge in 2001

There’s hyperbole and then there’s just absolute and complete gross exaggeration.

The bloke hasn’t even played an AFL game and objectively is still a complete unknown at the level.

Sam Walsh has been killing it since his first year, and would already be a top 20 midfielder in the comp… and even given those bona fides you’re taking an unproven prospect over him…

 

[Chris25]

He’s saying he would take 18 year old Horne over 18 year old Walsh. Draft year vs draft year. Not what he’s doing now.

Seems fair to me.

 

[Rusty Beam]

He’s saying he would take 18 year old Horne over 18 year old Walsh. Draft year vs draft year. Not what he’s doing now.

Seems fair to me.

You can interpret it that way if you like, but that’s not how I thought it was written.

Ultimately IMO that means very little anyway, given that throughout that period (other than Walsh) the number 1 pick hasn’t even been the best player in their respective draft…

 

[Chris25]

Exactly. Which is why it seemed pretty clear he was comparing pick 1’s from their draft year.

I.e. Horne and Rowell are the best juniors of the last 15 years.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Exactly. Which is why it seemed pretty clear he was comparing pick 1’s from their draft year.

I.e. Horne and Rowell are the best juniors of the last 15 years.

He was pretty absolute that he’s a generational talent though… so I just thought he must have known with certainty.

The mix of subjective and objective, even within the same sentence, threw me.

 

[mattwa]

Should be fun to watch. Hopefully Logan is up the other end.


Hopefully Jamarra has a few moments. The sure thing with Jamarra is he'll be flying for marks, even if he's not taking them.

Where would you rate jamarra in this draft based off his draft grade last year ?

 

[Knightmare]

Where would you rate jamarra in this draft based off his draft grade last year ?

Based off of my draft board, stick this year's pool into last year's draft and Jamarra would still have been along with Logan McDonald ahead of this year's pool. Not that last year's draft was all that good, but the top few last year I favoured and saw greater upside in.

 

[Trent the flight Steward]

Why doesn't the AFL academy base the players in Canberra for the year, to expose the guys to living away from home and play in the VFL. I think that would reduce the perceived home sickness factor as well as having all first rounders to have 4 year contracts, instead of 2. Most uni degrees are 4 years and most apprenticeships are 4 years, how can you invest in the draft to rebuild as a non Vic club to have players leave after 2 years?

 

[Knightmare]

Why doesn't the AFL academy base the players in Canberra for the year, to expose the guys to living away from home and play in the VFL. I think that would reduce the perceived home sickness factor as well as having all first rounders to have 4 year contracts, instead of 2. Most uni degrees are 4 years and most apprenticeships are 4 years, how can you invest in the draft to rebuild as a non Vic club to have players leave after 2 years?

Schooling plays a part.

Particularly with all the kids going to APS schools. You get average enter scores of 85-90 at those schools. You don't know your kid is getting drafted and parents want to give their kids what they believe to be the best education possible.

Doesn't mean there wouldn't be others who would take up that opportunity though, but I'm not sure there would be wide enough adoption or interest from the kids/parents for it to work as intended.

So many even if they get drafted get churned out of the system pretty quickly, and the system is really based more-so to prioritise kids getting the education and skills where if things don't work out in footy they can move on with their lives and maximise their career prospects outside of footy.

If we take Adam Cerra as an example who sounds like he wants out this offseason. A Wesley College boy. APS school. Didn't want to go to Fremantle/move interstate and was always going to want back at the first opportunity was the inside word. Had such a program been in place, not that I've met or spoken to him, but I'd imagine being at one of Melbourne's elite private schools he would have as others would in that same situation stayed in Melbourne, gone through the APS football program, developed with his NAB League club, and still gotten drafted. A lot of those APS boys put a high priority on their school footy and playing with their school mates. Have you heard Rowell and Anderson talk about their school footy and how much they enjoyed playing with their mates at Carey? It's a pretty consistent thing.

Maybe the program would work for those outside those elite private school systems and maybe that helps broaden the talent pool which would be the counter argument, and those who would make that argument I would agree with in so much as levelling that playing field and giving opportunities for all is a great thing, but those types who probably still would be your homesick types as per your reason for the suggestion, they're probably not the types that would be taking up those kinds of opportunities as much as those would would be fine with it. Though no doubt it would be case by case.

 

[Trent the flight Steward]

Yep it's an interesting point regarding the APS schooling system, where as a generalisation the home sickness is from private school drafted players. Why isn't this a problem for cricket, going to the Cricket academy or kids attending the AIS? The majority of AFL academy picks will be taken first round, where their atar score doesn't matter.

Should aps school based players be ineligible for the draft that year? They concentrate on school footy and school, then get drafted the next year? We now nearly have a quarter of players drafted from the aps schools system, which has a heavy pushback to come back home from interstate, it's almost as if the AFL may think it's cheaper to have a USA college style system, where the tac cup is erredicated. Not sure that will be good outcome for interstate sides

Schooling plays a part.

Particularly with all the kids going to APS schools. You get average enter scores of 85-90 at those schools. You don't know your kid is getting drafted and parents want to give their kids what they believe to be the best education possible.

Doesn't mean there wouldn't be others who would take up that opportunity though, but I'm not sure there would be wide enough adoption or interest from the kids/parents for it to work as intended.

So many even if they get drafted get churned out of the system pretty quickly, and the system is really based more-so to prioritise kids getting the education and skills where if things don't work out in footy they can move on with their lives and maximise their career prospects outside of footy.

If we take Adam Cerra as an example who sounds like he wants out this offseason. A Wesley College boy. APS school. Didn't want to go to Fremantle/move interstate and was always going to want back at the first opportunity was the inside word. Had such a program been in place, not that I've met or spoken to him, but I'd imagine being at one of Melbourne's elite private schools he would have as others would in that same situation stayed in Melbourne, gone through the APS football program, developed with his NAB League club, and still gotten drafted. A lot of those APS boys put a high priority on their school footy and playing with their school mates. Have you heard Rowell and Anderson talk about their school footy and how much they enjoyed playing with their mates at Carey? It's a pretty consistent thing.

Maybe the program would work for those outside those elite private school systems and maybe that helps broaden the talent pool which would be the counter argument, and those who would make that argument I would agree with in so much as levelling that playing field and giving opportunities for all is a great thing, but those types who probably still would be your homesick types as per your reason for the suggestion, they're probably not the types that would be taking up those kinds of opportunities as much as those would would be fine with it. Though no doubt it would be case by case.

 

[Knightmare]

Yep it's an interesting point regarding the APS schooling system, where as a generalisation the home sickness is from private school drafted players. Why isn't this a problem for cricket, going to the Cricket academy or kids attending the AIS? The majority of AFL academy picks will be taken first round, where their atar score doesn't matter.

Should aps school based players be ineligible for the draft that year? They concentrate on school footy and school, then get drafted the next year? We now nearly have a quarter of players drafted from the aps schools system, which has a heavy pushback to come back home from interstate, it's almost as if the AFL may think it's cheaper to have a USA college style system, where the tac cup is erredicated. Not sure that will be good outcome for interstate sides

I don't see any simple solution.

Perhaps I could be overly harsh on the APS boys, as it's more generally the Vic Country boys that are more comfortable moving on average, as ultimately they're moving away from home to join any of the Victorian sides anyway. It could easily be said of WA boys that they're often looking to move home also, as they're ultimately from the other side of the country and don't exactly have an easy time getting home often, and similarly those from the other side of the country not always, but at a higher frequency than with other teams tend to leave for that same reason.

I definitely wouldn't make APS school prospects ineligible for a year. There are kids around the country who are trying in their year 12 studies, and not every kid in the APS system is academic with a lot on footy scholarships, and on the other side of the coin, there are academic kids outside the APS system also who are smart and want to maximise their academic stuff. So many footballers today are either studying at uni or doing something else that as it has been, it's been incorporated into the model to allow for it.

My main thing at the moment is improving the calibre of the NAB League with the difference in calibre between the private school and non private school kids growing and set to grow more. It just needs more funding with the cutbacks for this season hurting the standard we're seeing.

Maybe the AFL need to start selling some NFTs? Or the NAB League could start selling some NFTs including legendary moments from legendary players as kids. In any case, there are always creative ways to gain more funding and get things back on course.

 

[Trent the flight Steward]

I think with the cuts into AFL, they are seeing it as a simple solution is to allow the aps schools system to just take over, where it appears that it will become similar to the USA college system, where all players go through the college system to being drafted, where it will be aps schools to being drafted.

I haven't heard of Luke Jackson, Logan McDonald or Grainger barass being homesick and wanting to head home straight away.

Maybe the best way is for first rounders to have a 4 year contract, as it gives the club more confidence the player won't walk in 2 years

I don't see any simple solution.

Perhaps I could be overly harsh on the APS boys, as it's more generally the Vic Country boys that are more comfortable moving on average, as ultimately they're moving away from home to join any of the Victorian sides anyway. It could easily be said of WA boys that they're often looking to move home also, as they're ultimately from the other side of the country and don't exactly have an easy time getting home often, and similarly those from the other side of the country not always, but at a higher frequency than with other teams tend to leave for that same reason.

I definitely wouldn't make APS school prospects ineligible for a year. There are kids around the country who are trying in their year 12 studies, and not every kid in the APS system is academic with a lot on footy scholarships, and on the other side of the coin, there are academic kids outside the APS system also who are smart and want to maximise their academic stuff. So many footballers today are either studying at uni or doing something else that as it has been, it's been incorporated into the model to allow for it.

My main thing at the moment is improving the calibre of the NAB League with the difference in calibre between the private school and non private school kids growing and set to grow more. It just needs more funding with the cutbacks for this season hurting the standard we're seeing.

Maybe the AFL need to start selling some NFTs? Or the NAB League could start selling some NFTs including legendary moments from legendary players as kids. In any case, there are always creative ways to gain more funding and get things back on course.

 

[Knightmare]

I think with the cuts into AFL, they are seeing it as a simple solution is to allow the aps schools system to just take over, where it appears that it will become similar to the USA college system, where all players go through the college system to being drafted, where it will be aps schools to being drafted.

I haven't heard of Luke Jackson, Logan McDonald or Grainger barass being homesick and wanting to head home straight away.

Maybe the best way is for first rounders to have a 4 year contract, as it gives the club more confidence the player won't walk in 2 years

Definitely an option, though with a lot of those types of high performers they may be keen after two years to negotiate a new contract. You'd almost need a player option after two years that has some built-in clause that allows for a new contract to be negotiated after two years at a higher rate of pay if they want to.

Interestingly with Cerra who was my earlier example, he has actually had the four seasons with Fremantle and to his credit at least hasn't immediately left after those two years were up. So I'm not of the view personally that that changes the go-home factor dynamic.

My comparison to the US, our social dynamics differ so much. In the US, it's so common to leave home to go to college in another state. They'll move out of home to do so v in Australia where that's not part of what we do for the most part and people mostly go to uni in their home states, and most will chose to keep living at home.

In the US one of the advantages there is the landmass is a lot smaller and it's quicker to travel from state to state v if you live in say WA, it's going to take a long time to travel anywhere else around the country. And with their college culture in the US, it's appealing for a lot of the kids there v at Australian universities where the universities put greater focus into their research programs to keep their international rankings competitive and bringing in as many foreign students as possible to maximise their revenues as they pay x3 the fees of local students. So there isn't that same drive in Australia for kids to get as involved at uni, develop those same relationships or have those same opportunities as a result, albeit at least the positive is from a fee paying perspective at least our unis don't exclude as the US ones do with their fees exorbitant and no HECS system over there, with so many relying on scholarships and sporting scholarships.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

In the US one of the advantages there is the landmass is a lot smaller and it's quicker to travel from state to state v if you live in say WA, it's going to take a long time to travel anywhere else around the country.

 

[Knightmare]

View attachment 1173841

Or to put it more accurately, from state to state, with 50 states, many more cities, you're not having to travel far. Australia's cities are all on the coastlines and a long way from one another. You'll have people from New York studying in Boston or Philli. And they can go back to their home cities easily on a weekend if they choose. That's what makes studying in a different city easier in the US, aside from having in infrastructure in place to make each university and welcoming living location that is designed specifically for such numbers of interstate students and students from other cities.

 

[pupstar]

Based off of my draft board, stick this year's pool into last year's draft and Jamarra would still have been along with Logan McDonald ahead of this year's pool. Not that last year's draft was all that good, but the top few last year I favoured and saw greater upside in.

Thought it would be way to early to say last years draft was not all that good.

 

[Trent the flight Steward]

I was more thinking that the aps schools are acting as USA colleges by providing scholarships to footballers, correct me if I'm wrong but we are around 25% of draftees are now aps schools, that number has risen from 2000.

What is being created is an elitism school program, what will happen to the dusty Martin's of the world today? He left school in year 9, would an 18 year old dusty be drafted in 2021?

Imo what we are seeing is that there will be push by AFL to just have a private school system league that will be televised and the AFL and no other football, as that will increase the television numbers and increase the tv rights, with just reserves and no other football

Definitely an option, though with a lot of those types of high performers they may be keen after two years to negotiate a new contract. You'd almost need a player option after two years that has some built-in clause that allows for a new contract to be negotiated after two years at a higher rate of pay if they want to.

Interestingly with Cerra who was my earlier example, he has actually had the four seasons with Fremantle and to his credit at least hasn't immediately left after those two years were up. So I'm not of the view personally that that changes the go-home factor dynamic.

My comparison to the US, our social dynamics differ so much. In the US, it's so common to leave home to go to college in another state. They'll move out of home to do so v in Australia where that's not part of what we do for the most part and people mostly go to uni in their home states, and most will chose to keep living at home.

In the US one of the advantages there is the landmass is a lot smaller and it's quicker to travel from state to state v if you live in say WA, it's going to take a long time to travel anywhere else around the country. And with their college culture in the US, it's appealing for a lot of the kids there v at Australian universities where the universities put greater focus into their research programs to keep their international rankings competitive and bringing in as many foreign students as possible to maximise their revenues as they pay x3 the fees of local students. So there isn't that same drive in Australia for kids to get as involved at uni, develop those same relationships or have those same opportunities as a result, albeit at least the positive is from a fee paying perspective at least our unis don't exclude as the US ones do with their fees exorbitant and no HECS system over there, with so many relying on scholarships and sporting scholarships.

 

[Knightmare]

Thought it would be way to early to say last years draft was not all that good.

Time will tell us with greater accuracy. There will be some good talls up the top end, but if we're to assess compared to years past there aren't as many good players certainly at this point compared to what we're used to.

If we're to look at midfielders as examples, there aren't any looking like they'll become transcendent, whereas at this time in just about any year there will be some where there is optimism that they'll become stars of the competition. I'm not seeing one non kpp who looks like they'll become one of the competition's premier players at this stage.

I was more thinking that the aps schools are acting as USA colleges by providing scholarships to footballers, correct me if I'm wrong but we are around 25% of draftees are now aps schools, that number has risen from 2000.

What is being created is an elitism school program, what will happen to the dusty Martin's of the world today? He left school in year 9, would an 18 year old dusty be drafted in 2021?

Imo what we are seeing is that there will be push by AFL to just have a private school system league that will be televised and the AFL and no other football, as that will increase the television numbers and increase the tv rights, with just reserves and no other football

The private school numbers drafted have risen over time with the APS football systems in particular over the past 10-15 years in particular really upping their game.

There is still room today for school dropouts and if they're good enough, they'll get picked. We're not going to go to the extreme at any point that only APS kids get drafted as there will always be talent elsewhere.

If we see someone show the attributes of Dusty, regardless of their story, we'll still see people placing them highly on their draft boards as we're still all ultimately judging them on their footballing capabilities first. We have had guys who have been to prison drafted after all, as recently as Marlion Pickett, and in his late 20s at that which we don't see often.

It's an interesting idea re. private school football matches being televised. Certainly there wouldn't be the interest at that time, though if streamed on YouTube there would among those draft watchers be some who tune in. It's more just the schools and classmates that get behind the teams otherwise as a component of their culture. It's not like a kid from a local school will show up to eg. a Scotch College v Melbourne Grammar game and rock up in one of their school uniforms or school colours, I can't ever see that kind of cultural transition happening, no matter how good the marketing, as there isn't among public school kids kind of love for private school kids, and I think the same online would prove to be the case, though maybe with the odd father-son I'm sure there would be some casually tuning in supporting the player they hope will be joining their team.

 

[pupstar]

Time will tell us with greater accuracy. There will be some good talls up the top end, but if we're to assess compared to years past there aren't as many good players certainly at this point compared to what we're used to.

If we're to look at midfielders as examples, there aren't any looking like they'll become transcendent, whereas at this time in just about any year there will be some where there is optimism that they'll become stars of the competition. I'm not seeing one non kpp who looks like they'll become one of the competition's premier players at this stage.



The private school numbers drafted have risen over time with the APS football systems in particular over the past 10-15 years in particular really upping their game.

There is still room today for school dropouts and if they're good enough, they'll get picked. We're not going to go to the extreme at any point that only APS kids get drafted as there will always be talent elsewhere.

If we see someone show the attributes of Dusty, regardless of their story, we'll still see people placing them highly on their draft boards as we're still all ultimately judging them on their footballing capabilities first. We have had guys who have been to prison drafted after all, as recently as Marlion Pickett, and in his late 20s at that which we don't see often.

It's an interesting idea re. private school football matches being televised. Certainly there wouldn't be the interest at that time, though if streamed on YouTube there would among those draft watchers be some who tune in. It's more just the schools and classmates that get behind the teams otherwise as a component of their culture. It's not like a kid from a local school will show up to eg. a Scotch College v Melbourne Grammar game and rock up in one of their school uniforms or school colours, I can't ever see that kind of cultural transition happening, no matter how good the marketing, as there isn't among public school kids kind of love for private school kids, and I think the same online would prove to be the case, though maybe with the odd father-son I'm sure there would be some casually tuning in supporting the player they hope will be joining their team.

I suppose it is not really fair or hard to judge last years draft through a lot of lets say Vic kids preps due to Covid so realisticly they maybe a bit behind than previous years.

 

[Knightmare]

I suppose it is not really fair or hard to judge last years draft through a lot of lets say Vic kids preps due to Covid so realisticly they maybe a bit behind than previous years.

It's had an impact, no doubt. And that's the point.

I'd argue being a year lost, that's a year that can't be gotten back. Not having that year of development, they're not going to reach the same level they would have had they had last year to develop - gain that experience, develop physically and develop as footballers.

 

[foodles05]

I don't disagree with you athletically, though I'm yet to find or have recommended a better comparison.

Who would you compare Horne to?

Chris25 also interested in your Horne comparison if you have a good one.

Can I have a selwood fyfe hybrid. Like literally if you took the average of their heights power marking, will for the contest ect ect ect then I think that's Horne. Although Horny has more pure speed and acceleration than both of them.

 

[foodles05]

I'm going off of what I see in game. I don't view any of the highlight clips as being representative of what I'm seeing of Horne in full games.

Horne in game here/there will swoop in and win a loose ball at stoppages and burst out of there, but it's a much lower frequency activity for him than you'd say of a Danger or Petracca when they play through the midfield and burst through stoppages and win it. Horne is not the hard ball winner a Danger or Petracca are and will never have that kind of size or strength. Even for the same age he doesn't have the same strength or power and doesn't feel like he's taking games over in the same way. He's not a big, imposing mid like that.



Again, I'm not seeing that same size/strength/power. Horne isn't imposing like Mark Ricciuto was and isn't that same cannonball around the ball.

I don't see the style of games as being all that comparable.

On career outcome though, I don't see Horne becoming a great of the game or Brownlow Medallist as Ricciuto was. Doesn't mean he can't, I'm just not predicting it. From those Adelaide teams from that same era, Horne might be closer to a Simon Goodwin for career outcome, which needless to say would be an exceptional outcome if it worked out that way.

I think what can be hard to assess is whether Danger or Track would have been doing it with the regularity you are talking about playing league footy at 16 and 17. It's must easier to show that consistency of explosion if you are playing against your own age group.