Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[juss]

I was hoping Richmond with a top 10 pick this year might be able to snag a promising KPF.

Knightmare doesn't look like too many high quality tall forwards are rated in the top 5-15 range?

 

[Rusty Beam]

who?

There’s been heaps over a long period. Practically most young midfielders who gets the call up to play AFL level in their rookie year having only played a few games of reserves first.

Although admittedly that has been disrupted the last year or two due interrupting the Vfl season (and also impacting draftee readiness).

And then there is some like Bailey Smith who perform straight off the bat in the AFL.

 

[footylover18]

yeh, after having done an AFL preseason, are in a professional environment, not having to worry about school etc etc.

compare apples with apples.

which under 18y.o, performed "right off the bat" in the VFL during their draft year?

 

[Rusty Beam]

yeh, after having done an AFL preseason, are in a professional environment, not having to worry about school etc etc.

compare apples with apples.

which under 18y.o, performed "right off the bat" in the VFL during their draft year?

I thought the SANFL was this ultra professional league. Now I’m confused.

 

[PMBangers]

yeh, after having done an AFL preseason, are in a professional environment, not having to worry about school etc etc.

compare apples with apples.

which under 18y.o, performed "right off the bat" in the VFL during their draft year?

Tyler Sonsie did pretty well in his Box Hill game

 

[footylover18]

Now I’m confused.

sounds like it.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Tyler Sonsie did pretty well in his Box Hill game

So would plenty of the top prospects IMO.

 

[Rusty Beam]

sounds like it.

Must be. Particularly with AFL geriatrics and dropouts still dominating.

 

[footylover18]

Tyler Sonsie did pretty well in his Box Hill game

it happens. merely pointing out that it's quite uncommon for an 18y.o to spend their entire draft year playing VFL/SANFL/WAFL football.

i have no idea how to easily compare the two, but it is prob worth noting that the degree of difficulty for an 18y.o playing in reserves level football is not the same as Daicos et al dominating in year 12 school footy.

 

[footylover18]

So would plenty of the top prospects IMO.

"would".

you're guessing.

 

[footylover18]

Must be. Particularly with AFL geriatrics and dropouts still dominating.

yeh, a lot of it is to do with tank. not athleticism. having 10 AFL preseasons under your belt helps. as does experience.

 

[PMBangers]

it happens. merely pointing out that it's quite uncommon for an 18y.o to spend their entire draft year playing VFL/SANFL/WAFL football.

i have no idea how to easily compare the two, but it is prob worth noting that the degree of difficulty for an 18y.o playing in reserves level football is not the same as Daicos et al dominating in year 12 school footy.

Daicos isn't playing school footy, and with how Vic footy works no 18 year old can spend the whole year playing VFL with priority given to NAB League and School footy

 

[Rusty Beam]

"would".

you're guessing.

In my opinion yes ‘they would’.

That’s all this draft discussion is, opinion. So in essence it’s all guessing.

 

[theGav56]

Full games from start to finish? None. My uncle is a recruiter/scout for Collingwood and sends me extended highlights packages of some of the players here and there and I keep up to date with VFL and Souths game highlights. Other than that just talk to my uncle about which players he thinks will be on Carltons radar and who he sees as the real guns of the drafts. Occasionally watch a quarter here and there but not frequently.

Sounds like Collingwood need to find a new recruiter. One who is a lot more discreet.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Sounds like Collingwood need to find a new recruiter. One who is a lot more discreet.

I'd reckon the Pies would have bigger fish to fry than an Uncle speaking about commonly known top 20-30 draft prospects over a dinner table and an occasional youtube video.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

it happens. merely pointing out that it's quite uncommon for an 18y.o to spend their entire draft year playing VFL/SANFL/WAFL football.

i have no idea how to easily compare the two, but it is prob worth noting that the degree of difficulty for an 18y.o playing in reserves level football is not the same as Daicos et al dominating in year 12 school footy.

As a handy reference point, Dylan Stephens' draft year SANFL form seems to stack up pretty well against Horne.

Stephens:


Horne:

 

[Knightmare]

it's so hard trying to make player comps. all players end up being unique in their own right.

we're better off trying to compare styles, attributes when discussing draftees rather than "he's the next X".

I see traits of Dangerfield in Horne's game, but by the same token, those traits were also apparent in Ziebell. It is not sexy to say he is the next Jack Ziebell, who btw, was as hard at it as Horne is (http://afldraftinfo.blogspot.com/2009/01/jack-ziebell-murray-bushrangersvic.html).

There is some Ziebell. Horne should be better and more of a midfield version. Horne certainly has a lot of that same courage.

Right. Again, I feel I need to ask the question, have you ever looked at a picture of Jason Horne?

I also have a rough idea of your age and I don't think you were around for West Adelaide 1992 or 1993 1st year Mark Riccuito, he was actually smaller than Horne is now.

I'll help you out.

View attachment 1176656

I have absolutely no idea how you can come to that conclusion by watching any of his games. He doesn't use his power to win a hard ball? Wow.

I have no idea why you are comparing him to a key forward.

You have brought up the Geelong game again, I feel you are completely biased about this game and keep returning to it for some reason. He was playing in a side patched together over a few days. There's about 2 dozen other examples that counter a single ordinary game that you keep dismissing.

There are guys with biceps and strong legs as Horne does as per the photo and there are guys who are barrel chested. I'd also suggest regarding Horne's strength that he's also strong through the hips. So I won't be calling him weak nor will I be suggesting he'll be lanky. And I won't be suggesting he lacks aggression either. He absolutely puts his body on the line consistently when it's his turn to go - whether it's putting his head over the footy or whatever the situation. That said, there aren't many barrel chested footballers today in the AFL. Horne won't let his conditioning get to a state where he's barrel chested bull at 93kg as Ricciuto reached.

If you watch the way Horne wins the ball at stoppages, he's swooping in on the loose balls and then bursting out, or the times he wins first possession he's dishing out, but he's not a special first possession winner. That comes from watching x5 SANFL League games this year and the x1 v Geelong's VFL side.

The relevance of the game v Geelong VFL is it showed the separation Daicos has in a direct comparison to Horne. People who advocate Horne will say "Daicos hasn't played against state league competition" or "the competition Daicos has played against doesn't stack up against what Horne has played against" and that's the direct evidence to show when in the same game against the same competition what happens. We've also seen with Daicos on the weekend how Daicos dominates against a state side in Vic Country and unsurprisingly there is no drop off.

Why is the Callow game relevant? Callow was like Horne working to earn an AFL list spot and was better than Horne with separation in that game. I watched on to watch Horne, and Callow was by far and away the better footballer as he was before Hawthorn drafted him. 4/5ths of my notes from that game were of Callow rather than Horne which shouldn't happen.

I could draw upon Roberts' debut game in the SANFL. Roberts while he played across half-forward played the better game than Horne did through the midfield. Roberts was one touch with everything that game. Horne was decent but not exceptional.

Ultimately, I'm not going to overhype Horne as the next big thing as others are, and for that matter I'm not going to overhype Daicos either. I don't see either becoming the best in the competition. I see both as safe bets to be exceptional for a long time, but I'm not seeing either becoming top-5 midfielders in the competition.

I also, and it should go without mentioning have no problem with people describing Horne as the best thing since sliced bread or since whoever. I encourage people to do their own analysis and back their own analysis. Ultimately on my end that's all I do and what I'm going to continue doing. And I haven't seen my last Horne so there is always opportunity with another half of the season to go for him to change my mind, but my position stands as it does at the present time.

I was hoping Richmond with a top 10 pick this year might be able to snag a promising KPF.

Knightmare doesn't look like too many high quality tall forwards are rated in the top 5-15 range?

Mac Andrew is looking good. I'll feature him as my player focus player for this week in my piece on ESPN. I wouldn't take him at 5, but closer to 15 I see him as appropriate for selection. I like him most through the ruck in the long run, but can play KPP and surprised me with how capable he is when not in the ruck and he has a lot of tools at his disposal from the height and long arms to the contested marking, ground level craft, skills. So he's aside from Darcy he's that most developable looking and the one I'd be suggesting clubs consider.

 

[the big lebowski]

What did you think of Cunningtons foot skills in the wet last night Knightmare?

 

[Knightmare]

What did you think of Cunningtons foot skills in the wet last night Knightmare?

Those talking about Cunnington's kicking off one step or two steps by foot, I'm in complete agreement with. He's drilling those passes to an elite standard. He's playing career best footy.

 

[the big lebowski]

Those talking about Cunnington's kicking off one step or two steps by foot, I'm in complete agreement with. He's drilling those passes to an elite standard. He's playing career best footy.

It’s not a bad combo is it? Elite contested ball winner (most 20+ contested possession games in history), elite handball (best since Greg Williams), elite by foot as you say. Can take an overhead mark and is tough as nails.

If only he could run

 

[Crow till I die]

There is some Ziebell. Horne should be better and more of a midfield version. Horne certainly has a lot of that same courage.



There are guys with biceps and strong legs as Horne does as per the photo and there are guys who are barrel chested. I'd also suggest regarding Horne's strength that he's also strong through the hips. So I won't be calling him weak nor will I be suggesting he'll be lanky. And I won't be suggesting he lacks aggression either. He absolutely puts his body on the line consistently when it's his turn to go - whether it's putting his head over the footy or whatever the situation. That said, there aren't many barrel chested footballers today in the AFL. Horne won't let his conditioning get to a state where he's barrel chested bull at 93kg as Ricciuto reached.

If you watch the way Horne wins the ball at stoppages, he's swooping in on the loose balls and then bursting out, or the times he wins first possession he's dishing out, but he's not a special first possession winner. That comes from watching x5 SANFL League games this year and the x1 v Geelong's VFL side.

The relevance of the game v Geelong VFL is it showed the separation Daicos has in a direct comparison to Horne. People who advocate Horne will say "Daicos hasn't played against state league competition" or "the competition Daicos has played against doesn't stack up against what Horne has played against" and that's the direct evidence to show when in the same game against the same competition what happens. We've also seen with Daicos on the weekend how Daicos dominates against a state side in Vic Country and unsurprisingly there is no drop off.

Why is the Callow game relevant? Callow was like Horne working to earn an AFL list spot and was better than Horne with separation in that game. I watched on to watch Horne, and Callow was by far and away the better footballer as he was before Hawthorn drafted him. 4/5ths of my notes from that game were of Callow rather than Horne which shouldn't happen.

I could draw upon Roberts' debut game in the SANFL. Roberts while he played across half-forward played the better game than Horne did through the midfield. Roberts was one touch with everything that game. Horne was decent but not exceptional.

Ultimately, I'm not going to overhype Horne as the next big thing as others are, and for that matter I'm not going to overhype Daicos either. I don't see either becoming the best in the competition. I see both as safe bets to be exceptional for a long time, but I'm not seeing either becoming top-5 midfielders in the competition.

I also, and it should go without mentioning have no problem with people describing Horne as the best thing since sliced bread or since whoever. I encourage people to do their own analysis and back their own analysis. Ultimately on my end that's all I do and what I'm going to continue doing. And I haven't seen my last Horne so there is always opportunity with another half of the season to go for him to change my mind, but my position stands as it does at the present time.



Mac Andrew is looking good. I'll feature him as my player focus player for this week in my piece on ESPN. I wouldn't take him at 5, but closer to 15 I see him as appropriate for selection. I like him most through the ruck in the long run, but can play KPP and surprised me with how capable he is when not in the ruck and he has a lot of tools at his disposal from the height and long arms to the contested marking, ground level craft, skills. So he's aside from Darcy he's that most developable looking and the one I'd be suggesting clubs consider.

Hi KM.

Reading your comments above, from a crows perspective assuming we end up with a top 2 or 3 pick this year, would Roberts be the player we should target in your opinion? Assuming North finish bottom (which to be fair is now in doubt), you get the feeling they will be wedded to taking Horne. I have only seen highlights of Roberts but they look very very good. Your thoughts?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM.

Reading your comments above, from a crows perspective assuming we end up with a top 2 or 3 pick this year, would Roberts be the player we should target in your opinion? Assuming North finish bottom (which to be fair is now in doubt), you get the feeling they will be wedded to taking Horne. I have only seen highlights of Roberts but they look very very good. Your thoughts?

At this stage I like Roberts most when faced with the reality that Daicos/Horne/Darcy won't be available. Josh Ward I'd be considering strongly and he's growing on me more with every passing game and looks like Victoria's best mid not named Daicos with Finn Callaghan another who needs strong consideration given he really fills Adelaide's needs as not only a taller midfielder, but also having speed and agility like no midfielder presently on Adelaide's list as that something different.

 

[Crow till I die]

At this stage I like Roberts most when faced with the reality that Daicos/Horne/Darcy won't be available. Josh Ward I'd be considering strongly and he's growing on me more with every passing game and looks like Victoria's best mid not named Daicos with Finn Callaghan another who needs strong consideration given he really fills Adelaide's needs as not only a taller midfielder, but also having speed and agility like no midfielder presently on Adelaide's list as that something different.

thanks for that KM. Last question for now I promise. Should the crows end up with pick 2 (ie 17th place finish), do you see more value in looking to trade down to grab an extra 1st rounder (ie pick 2 for say a late top 10 pick and another 1st if such a scenario was to present), or to stick with the next best pick after Horne and the 2 x F/S picks?

 

[Knightmare]

A point of conversation at the moment for me feels like the lack of worthwhile talls in this draft pool. Darcy has been widely spoken about and rightly, but the performance from Andrew on Friday has him for me moving into the top-15 mix and I'm certainly more comfortable than I was with him as a KPP. After that though, I can't say there is a single other I'd consider worth selecting inside the first round at this stage.

For those wanting more on Andrew I've posted my AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Melbourne Next-Generation Academy prospect Mac Andrew plus a comprehensive look at the Victorians on the rise from the Metro v Country clash which can be found on page 1/in my signature/on my Twitter.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...ct-mac-andrew-launches-first-round-contention

 

[Knightmare]

thanks for that KM. Last question for now I promise. Should the crows end up with pick 2 (ie 17th place finish), do you see more value in looking to trade down to grab an extra 1st rounder (ie pick 2 for say a late top 10 pick and another 1st if such a scenario was to present), or to stick with the next best pick after Horne and the 2 x F/S picks?

Depends entirely on how Adelaide rate the draft and who they have on their draft board.

I'd personally trade down. I'm seeing a lot of value and players who can be had later than I'd be prepared to take them. Whether it's just moving out of the top-5 and getting a Roberts + something else, or moving yet further down and getting some other combination. Really depends on where Adelaide see those value points as being in the draft to maximise the possible haul drafted.