Prediction Ladder Prediction 2022

Remove this Banner Ad

Feeling more and more like we will finish bottom- we arent winning a game before the mid season break…and even if we get Pick 1 Hamish will blow it on a speculative pick from
Tasmania….

Us, Roos and maybe Eagles fighting out the bottom spots. But Eagles may get it together if they get their players back and have a decent back half of the year.
 
Potentially we have gotten worse, or at least other sides around us have improved more than we have, which is functionally the same. Could easily see us win the spoon again. Then again it is round 1. The excuses run out at the end of this season, I hope the club makes the most of it.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Us, Roos and maybe Eagles fighting out the bottom spots. But Eagles may get it together if they get their players back and have a decent back half of the year.
Dont think the Eagles will finish bottom...even with 8 players out they were able to almost get over the line against the Suns. Equally playing in Perth is a far greater advantage than playing in Adelaide or Melbourne. Honestly, and I know I am way too pessimistic, but I cant see us winning more than say 3-4 games this year...our mid-field is simply atrocious (and arguably getting worse than last year given Sloane's rapid decline)...so hope I am wrong, but this has 2020 written all over it again....
 
Maybe we have got worse, maybe we will be the spoon winning side but a simple rule of data analysis is don't hang your hat on one piece of data. At least wait 3 or 4 weeks before getting full on gloomy! Half the sides lose round 1.
 
Can't see us winning the spoon. I think our range is 6-8 wins, so anywhere between 14th and 17th is likely.
Hard to pick a wooden spooner right now, but you'd expect it to be between Adel, North, WCE, Hawthorn with St K and even Collingwood an outside chance with a few injuries.

I think GC keep improving, and Freo are at the point where they will win more home games than they lose, so I'm not considering either of those.

Honestly, another pick 1-3 would be nice for a mid
 
Us, Roos and maybe Eagles fighting out the bottom spots. But Eagles may get it together if they get their players back and have a decent back half of the year.

Hawks aren't crash hot. Collingwood could easily fall into a hole. Gold Coast could Gold Coast, injuries/coivd could wreck a mid table team etc.

Plenty of room to move up, especially if we're in a year where 4-5 wins gets bottom of the table.
 
Dont think the Eagles will finish bottom...even with 8 players out they were able to almost get over the line against the Suns. Equally playing in Perth is a far greater advantage than playing in Adelaide or Melbourne. Honestly, and I know I am way too pessimistic, but I cant see us winning more than say 3-4 games this year...our mid-field is simply atrocious (and arguably getting worse than last year given Sloane's rapid decline)...so hope I am wrong, but this has 2020 written all over it again....

I don't think the midfield is 'worse' per se. We've got Crouch back which allows us to keep playing Sloane anywhere else and the only negative with that is wherever he's deployed. But the midfield of Crouch, Keays, Schoey and Laird is no worse than Keays, Schoey, Laird and Sloane. In fact, dumping Sloane out of the midfield improves it markedly. More time for Schoey, despite his horrific execution on Sunday and no loss anywhere else.
 
Hawks aren't crash hot. Collingwood could easily fall into a hole. Gold Coast could Gold Coast, injuries/coivd could wreck a mid table team etc.

Plenty of room to move up, especially if we're in a year where 4-5 wins gets bottom of the table.

We're not moving up, that's insanity talking. We're bottom 3, lock it in. Only question is which position we find ourselves finishing. Even if individually our midfield is improved, it's not improved as a group. Sloane will remain a first bounce mid all year, despite output and it's highly unlikely that we'll rotate developing mids through there. 100 game players like Dawson will always get first crack, just like Seed did before him. There remains no faith in kids, which is why we rushed back Milera. You can turnover the list, you can change the age and experience profile, but you can't change embedded club philosophy. And it's that philosophy that has selected and encouraged the coaches since Craig.

This is a little off-tap and only a new thought. And don't get me wrong, I think the group underneath the senior coach is the most league wide valued ever assembled at our club. But what if they're all the highest priced commodities that are all cut from the same Neil Craig cloth philosophies that has cloked our club in the stench of failure since he was arseholed in a physical capacity? Have we just finally assembled the best of the available people that live for the same failed philosophies that have served us so poorly since Craig ascended the role?
 
Media Predictions from Crystal Ball: Our predictions for the 2022 AFL season are in

Highest we were rated was 4th to bottom by 2 people, rest ranked us lower. If we finish 5th to bottom or higher that will mean every media person in this sample ranked us lower than where we finished up. In a sensible world, an accurate media should be distributed around our likely finishing position, a few above, a few below. In this case we need to finish second or third to bottom for that to be the case. I find that really, really, hard to believe. If we don't then we can pretty much see there is a systematic under-rating of us by the media, perhaps even a bias against us!??

If anyone else finds any other media ladder predictions, chuck them in can ya, I'd like a bigger sample.

I might just rant on a bit more, I am staggered at this rating of us. Look at the positives for us, we only lost 1 player who contributed in any decent way last year and that's Lynch. We're a young side but we've already bottomed out in terms of experience, it only goes up from here for us. We finished 5th from bottom with our super inexperienced side last year, the only way we don't improve on that is with mega injuries. We've now got our coaches plan getting soundly bedded in in its 3rd year. We've got one of the best fitness guys in the comp working with us. We've got two good high draft picks in the team now. Weve essentially gained two all Australians (Crouch and Dawson) and added another mature player in Milera to an inexperienced squad. We've got some exciting prospects in the twos like Gollant, Cook and Soligo knocking on the door, hardly had that at all last year. Unlike last year, we now have a viable second ruck option and can rest ROB if he gets sore and his performance drops away which has been an achilles heel for us. Anyway, I look forward to a lot of media salt and surprise if we sit just in touch with the logjam of teams vying for 8th this year, which I think its possible for us to do.
Tex had a great year, last year and won us a few games of his own boot. If he has a poor year, we will stagnate and be bottom 3. Our poor midfield will leave our defenders completely exposed, bottom 4 is where I think we will be
 
Maybe we have got worse, maybe we will be the spoon winning side but a simple rule of data analysis is don't hang your hat on one piece of data. At least wait 3 or 4 weeks before getting full on gloomy! Half the sides lose round 1.

The sample size has now doubled, want to change your hypothesis yet?

Like many in here, I seemed to be overly optimistic about this season, I had us as a certain Bottom 4 team. I’d now like to revise that to Bottom 2.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

38 entries, not bad.

Average finishing position predictions:

Melbourne
2.2​
Brisbane
2.5​
Western Bulldogs
2.7​
Port Adelaide
6​
GWS
6.7​
Essendon
7.1​
Geelong
7.3​
Richmond
7.7​


Sydney
7.9​
St Kilda
10.1​
Fremantle
10.2​
Carlton
10.9​
West Coast
12.9​
Adelaide
13.4​
Collingwood
15.3​
North Melbourne
15.7​
Gold Coast
15.8​
Hawthorn
16.5​


Representative - most similar to the board consensus.

latinoheat
22​
BrissyCrow
22​
I Lost My Keays
22​
Ciao Giacomo
20​
eddiespocket
20​
GameofSloanes
20​
Scorpus
18​


Contrarian - most different to the board consensus:

crows dude
84​
WeeBlake
78​
Mego Red
68​
AFC979810
48​
Golumless
46​
kulak
46​
PCORF
42​


crows dude lapping the field for free thought. I hope you win.
 
The sample size has now doubled, want to change your hypothesis yet?

Like many in here, I seemed to be overly optimistic about this season, I had us as a certain Bottom 4 team. I’d now like to revise that to Bottom 2.
Nah, not yet. Am worried though. Not sure I shouldve believed Nicks when he said he was confident we got better by looking out our training.

Pretty sure they coaches are crapping their dacks about our lack of experience tho. I'm not sure they would've thought they'd be missing Laird or Seedsman when putting together the plans late last year. Murphy unavailable as well was another they wouldn't have been counting on. They probably thought Milera would be more advanced. Macadam would be available etc.

Anyway, not sure things will be better in that dept this week, we might get Laird back but then loose sloane. If we have both it will be a good help. Dont be surprised if Murphy comes straight back in once he's deemed fit.

Given all this surprised Berry hasn't been in. He got enough of a run last year to understand the gameplan.

We get Tex back the week after. That will be a major help.

Still holding out hope for Seed to be back in the next few weeks as well.
 
Nah, not yet. Am worried though. Not sure I shouldve believed Nicks when he said he was confident we got better by looking out our training.

Pretty sure they coaches are crapping their dacks about our lack of experience tho. I'm not sure they would've thought they'd be missing Laird or Seedsman when putting together the plans late last year. Murphy unavailable as well was another they wouldn't have been counting on. They probably thought Milera would be more advanced. Macadam would be available etc.

Anyway, not sure things will be better in that dept this week, we might get Laird back but then loose sloane. If we have both it will be a good help. Dont be surprised if Murphy comes straight back in once he's deemed fit.

Given all this surprised Berry hasn't been in. He got enough of a run last year to understand the gameplan.

We get Tex back the week after. That will be a major help.

Still holding out hope for Seed to be back in the next few weeks as well.

Don't believe Nicks, he's full of s**t.
 
Genuine question - who we actually going to beat this year?


I kind of asked this question in another thread but received no suggestions...maybe because there are none to give.



Looking at the fixture, where is our first win?

Not being over the top pessimistic but seriously, could you lock in any of the next 9 games as a win?

For me, apart from the Showdown which is certainly winnable, the most realistic win is Saints round 10, with a few narrow losses on the way.


I'm hoping for a couple of Geelong/Melbourne games circa 2021 but not holding my breath.



Away Collingwood (winnable but more likely a loss)

Home Port (largely winnable but loss)

Away Essendon (loss)

Home Richmond (Dusty will be back. Loss)

Away Bulldogs (Never going to win at Mars yet we’ll always be thrown there to play)

Home Giants (fortunately Greene will still be absent but not winning this anyway)

Away Carlton (we’d have to start now)

Home Lions (loss)

Home Saints (possibly our best chance)
 
Port are a team I cant accurately predict. I think they could be on the edge of a cliff. If Butters, Rozee , Duursma and other draftees can take over the team then a top 5 finish is in reach. If the kids struggle then they could plummet outside the 8
Cliff
 
I thought the Poorwer wouldn't make the top 8, but I didn't think they were spoon bad.

Finally home and away results are reflecting the capabilities of their side that is normally shown up in finals.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top