Prediction Ladder predictor

[The Inbetweener]

A home final against Norf or WCE is good enough for me. Would beat both of them.

Agree. With Macrae, Libba, Adams, McClean and maybe Campbell to come back I'm confident taking it up to anyone in the finals

 

[ringa5]

To achieve home final.All out Friday against Pies Footscray have bye.So rested players against the lab rats.Percentage doesn't matter just the win.Then Sunday game against the Dockers.Last game of regular season so know what we need to do.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Three wins are a must, I agree with that.

Eagles odds on to go winless from here, so we're in the box seat.

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

Three wins are a must, I agree with that.

Eagles odds on to go winless from here, so we're in the box seat.

Hawks have injuries, believe WCE have a big chance against them over there. So we need to beat Collingwood on Friday. No stuffing around.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Hawks have injuries, believe WCE have a big chance against them over there. So we need to beat Collingwood on Friday. No stuffing around.

Agreed, but the Eagles are flaky to say the least.

 

[fred cook]

I think the problem I have with Ladder predictor is that we will play the Crows in the second final over there if we win our first one DOH

 

[VogonProsthetnic]

I think the problem I have with Ladder predictor is that we will play the Crows in the second final over there if we win our first one DOH

On mine we play them in the PF.

 

[Woofing]

Either way we owe thise pricks. 97,98 and last year. No im not over it.
Confident we play them in a final, we come out on top. Not sure why, have thought it since the final last year.

 

[Pugz89]

Geez you're game. I think they'd do us, comfortably if it's over there.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Either way we owe thise pricks. 97,98 and last year. No im not over it.
Confident we play them in a final, we come out on top. Not sure why, have thought it since the final last year.

I'd love another crack at them as well.

 

[HiReception]

I'd love it too, for more pragmatic reasons

 

[fred cook]

I'd love another crack at them as well.

I would love another crack at the Cats

 

[Fossie 32]

I would love another crack at the Cats

The guy who was doing it went to Essendope

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Been looking at our run home and our playing list. I reckon we could be in for a great finals campaign.

We're almost a lock to finish 6 and host the Eagles at the G.

We have the opportunity to rest, manage and welcome back players over the next five weeks - the bye weekend will favour us hugely. Bevo has said he wasn't a fan of the bye but has acknowledged it was very timely.

Week 1 of finals we should have Adams Campbell Suckling McLean Williams all available with Libba and Macrae borderline week 1 / week 2 - earlier perhaps.

And we play in the very last game of the home and away season. We'll go into that match knowing exactly what the outcomes will be win loss or draw. Hopefully that game will be rendered meaningless by then meaning a couple of late changes is a strong possibility if we want a couple of players to recover like Stringer.

Finish 6 and win. We play loser of 2 & 3 away. Who knows who that will be but I'd back ourselves to play well in Sydney, Adelaide or the G.

I'm liking how we're placed.

 

[HiReception]

I've posted this before, but not in this thread, so why not give it another little plug?

I've put together a little website showing each team's chance of making the Finals, Top 4, and each individual position on the ladder - plus the impact the next few games to come will have on each team, and the chances that any two teams will meet in the first week of the Finals: http://mtdoyle.com/afl

You can also click each team in the main table and get a breakdown of records - i.e. if we win x of our last y games, can we still finish nth, etc.

Basically, if we win all of our last three games (as expected), there's only a ~3% chance that we'll finish lower than sixth (and we could theoretically finish second...).

If we win 2, we're still more likely than not to have a home final, but the Top 4 is gone; 1 win or less and we're just about certain to finish 7th.

As for who we line up against first up, naturally we're most likely to meet West Coast (67%), but we could also end up playing North Melbourne (24%), either as 5v8 or 6v7. That said, we're still negligible chances to play every other team in the eight - in fact, there's the thinnest of chances that we end up playing St Kilda or Port!

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Also, we play last in Rd 23. If it looks likely that we could play Eagles over there in finals, I suspect bevo may use the game to experiment things on the ground. The travel will suck but playing consecutive games at Subi is unheard of for a Vic team, I hope the first week isn't wasted.

Didnt the hawks do that last year? loose to eagles and then beat the Dockers both in perth.

 

[Pugz89]

Didnt the hawks do that last year? loose to eagles and then beat the Dockers both in perth.

Indeed they did. Lost the QF then won the prelim. Had the semi in between v Crows.

 

[Butane]

I've posted this before, but not in this thread, so why not give it another little plug?

I've put together a little website showing each team's chance of making the Finals, Top 4, and each individual position on the ladder - plus the impact the next few games to come will have on each team, and the chances that any two teams will meet in the first week of the Finals: http://mtdoyle.com/afl

You can also click each team in the main table and get a breakdown of records - i.e. if we win x of our last y games, can we still finish nth, etc.

Basically, if we win all of our last three games (as expected), there's only a ~3% chance that we'll finish lower than sixth (and we could theoretically finish second...).

If we win 2, we're still more likely than not to have a home final, but the Top 4 is gone; 1 win or less and we're just about certain to finish 7th.

As for who we line up against first up, naturally we're most likely to meet West Coast (67%), but we could also end up playing North Melbourne (24%), either as 5v8 or 6v7. That said, we're still negligible chances to play every other team in the eight - in fact, there's the thinnest of chances that we end up playing St Kilda or Port!

Cool site. I like it! I've tried to post this stuff before but there will always be one person that says 'Port are 2.71% to make the 8? Bullshit they have 0% your model is broken'. I assume these people also lose lots of money betting.

 

[dogwatch]

I've posted this before, but not in this thread, so why not give it another little plug?

I've put together a little website showing each team's chance of making the Finals, Top 4, and each individual position on the ladder - plus the impact the next few games to come will have on each team, and the chances that any two teams will meet in the first week of the Finals: http://mtdoyle.com/afl

You can also click each team in the main table and get a breakdown of records - i.e. if we win x of our last y games, can we still finish nth, etc.

Basically, if we win all of our last three games (as expected), there's only a ~3% chance that we'll finish lower than sixth (and we could theoretically finish second...).

If we win 2, we're still more likely than not to have a home final, but the Top 4 is gone; 1 win or less and we're just about certain to finish 7th.

As for who we line up against first up, naturally we're most likely to meet West Coast (67%), but we could also end up playing North Melbourne (24%), either as 5v8 or 6v7. That said, we're still negligible chances to play every other team in the eight - in fact, there's the thinnest of chances that we end up playing St Kilda or Port!

Great site but can you explain something for me please? Why do the Bulldogs chances of making the top 4 go up if teams with no chance (eg Ess v GCS or Bris v Carlton) play a draw? Doesn't make any sense to me.

 

[TempleKelvington]

Great site but can you explain something for me please? Why do the Bulldogs chances of making the top 4 go up if teams with no chance (eg Ess v GCS or Bris v Carlton) play a draw? Doesn't make any sense to me.

Butterfly effect.

 

[HiReception]

Great site but can you explain something for me please? Why do the Bulldogs chances of making the top 4 go up if teams with no chance (eg Ess v GCS or Bris v Carlton) play a draw? Doesn't make any sense to me.

You're absolutely right that it doesn't make sense.

Long story short, in the 40,000 rest-of-the-seasons that I simulate, only about 800 will have any given game as a draw. Of those 800, the Bulldogs just happen to make the Top 4 through completely unrelated results, slightly more often than they do in the whole 40,000.

The more simulations there are, the less likely that is to happen, but at the moment I'm capped due to hardware constraints that I'm working to fix. To compare with that, SportsClubStats (the site I modelled mine on, because they don't have the functionality to break ties on percentage) simulates the EPL season over 250,000,000 times!

 

[dogwatch]

You're absolutely right that it doesn't make sense.

Long story short, in the 40,000 rest-of-the-seasons that I simulate, only about 800 will have any given game as a draw. Of those 800, the Bulldogs just happen to make the Top 4 through completely unrelated results, slightly more often than they do in the whole 40,000.

The more simulations there are, the less likely that is to happen, but at the moment I'm capped due to hardware constraints that I'm working to fix. To compare with that, SportsClubStats (the site I modelled mine on, because they don't have the functionality to break ties on percentage) simulates the EPL season over 250,000,000 times!

Fair enough. That makes some sense.

So, long story even shorter: ignore the anomalies around drawn games between lower placed teams.

I love the statistical basis for who I should be wanting to win every match for the rest of the season.

 

[fred cook]

I think that results with thee eagles and giants today means we will finish fifth and play the roos dees or power but thew in a spanner and North beat Sydney and everything else goes to plan we could finish fourth

 

[LardDog]

I think that results with thee eagles and giants today means we will finish fifth and play the roos dees or power but thew in a spanner and North beat Sydney and everything else goes to plan we could finish fourth

Nah, Giants will beat north in round 23 and end up 5th, we'll be 6th with a home final against the eagles.

 

[Tommycash]

https://maxbarry.com/squiggle/