- Joined
- Dec 8, 2009
- Posts
- 1,773
- Reaction score
- 565
- Location
- Sunshine Coast, QLD
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Philly (Eagles, Flyers, Sixers)
I have created a spreadsheet with my basic analysis of the swans list based on this years selection trends, ages, and positions that can be viewed here.
Observations
I think we have probably 2 years left before we do another rebuild/restructure. Goodes/Bolton/O'Keefe will be out the door by that stage, along with a lot of the other guys who can't get a regular game. Surprisingly, this worries me and doesn't worry me at the same time.
Our midfield is good and young, and so is our forward line, which is operating with some very young up and comers. Thats the part that doesn't worry me. I mean, yes, it would be great to have another key forward like Tippett that we could bring in to help, but how many forward lines have 2 dominant keys? I'd argue just the one: Hawthorn.
The list is amazingly well balanced and it comes from the fact that most of our midfielders are dual inside/outside players or outside/small forward types. Amazing recruiting of versatility by Kinnear there.
On the flip side: Everitt. What is his role? First delisting next year, imo.
The biggest problem is the Defense in 2-3 years time. Or if an injury occurs. We have one spare Small Defender (Armstrong/Malceski) and no real spare Tall Defenders (Alex Brown?). I can understand why this hasn't been addressed at present as I'm sure the Swans don't want to unbalance the list by recruiting too many of one player type. However, it does need to be addressed soon.
There is surprisingly little fat on our list. The bottom players would be, in no particular order: Everitt, Lamb, Lockyer, Rohan, Walsh, White, Morton. Mind you, it was just delisting season...
Looking Forward
I don't think we need to worry too much about getting a key forward. Its not even dependant on whether Tippett gets here or what the fallout is. The bottom line is that the forward line is young and probably needs a bit more chemistry to be a top 4 unit. That, and we need to figure out what happens if we don't pull it off... thats a 5th KPF which is too many imo.
We need young defenders that can work with AJ, Smith, Armstrong and Brown (Maybe) for the next few years. We need to address this in the draft either this year or next year. I'd rather this year so we can experiment/develop, but not at the expense of unbalancing the list.
To keep the list balanced I propose one inside mid, one outside mid, and at least one defender. I think this is a plan the Swans will follow in 4 weeks time, maybe including a small forward with a late pick for depth.
The Actual Draft
Our picks are 23, 45, 47, 66, 67 and 103. This draft reminds me of a compromised 2009 draft, but whether its because of our picks or because of the talent pool I'm not sure.
I expect a lot of the names we've heard to be long gone by the time our number comes for 23, with a couple of exceptions. Surprisingly, I see them filling a big need if either one falls to us. Their names, Sam Colquhoun and Tanner Smith.
I can't name a player on our list similar to Sam. I would say he's a lot like a more silky Rhyce Shaw from what I've seen. But Tanner? Ted Richards. Ted Richards. TED RICHARDS. Just shuts down his man time and time again. Only problem is disposal, which will see him fall.
I like Nathan Hrovat if he's there in the 40's. Hrovat is a small inside midfielder. Think Moore with a little bit more pace. Otherwise, there is a tagger called Tom Temay. Shut down some high profile kids like Whitfield at the championships and was a nuisance off of Half-back. I like him a lot. Other names I'm going to include for these picks and others: Nathan Stark, Tom Tyquin, Alex Howson, Shannon Taylor
Stark is an inside midfielder. Not a big or strongly build midfielder but one of those genuine players who just puts his head over the footy and plays to win the ball.
Tyquin an Efficient user of the ball and an excellent decision maker and always seems to find the right target.
Howson played much of the season as a key forward in WA and performed to a high standard and then came into the U18 champs and really impressed as a key defender. Lacks defensive side though
Taylor is a mirror to Lewis Jetta - a damaging speedster by foot.
I also expect Harry Cunningham to be elevated.
Dream Draft
23. Tanner Smith
45. Nathan Hrovat
47. Shannon Taylor
65. Alex Howson
67. Harry Cunningham
Observations
I think we have probably 2 years left before we do another rebuild/restructure. Goodes/Bolton/O'Keefe will be out the door by that stage, along with a lot of the other guys who can't get a regular game. Surprisingly, this worries me and doesn't worry me at the same time.
Our midfield is good and young, and so is our forward line, which is operating with some very young up and comers. Thats the part that doesn't worry me. I mean, yes, it would be great to have another key forward like Tippett that we could bring in to help, but how many forward lines have 2 dominant keys? I'd argue just the one: Hawthorn.
The list is amazingly well balanced and it comes from the fact that most of our midfielders are dual inside/outside players or outside/small forward types. Amazing recruiting of versatility by Kinnear there.
On the flip side: Everitt. What is his role? First delisting next year, imo.
The biggest problem is the Defense in 2-3 years time. Or if an injury occurs. We have one spare Small Defender (Armstrong/Malceski) and no real spare Tall Defenders (Alex Brown?). I can understand why this hasn't been addressed at present as I'm sure the Swans don't want to unbalance the list by recruiting too many of one player type. However, it does need to be addressed soon.
There is surprisingly little fat on our list. The bottom players would be, in no particular order: Everitt, Lamb, Lockyer, Rohan, Walsh, White, Morton. Mind you, it was just delisting season...
Looking Forward
I don't think we need to worry too much about getting a key forward. Its not even dependant on whether Tippett gets here or what the fallout is. The bottom line is that the forward line is young and probably needs a bit more chemistry to be a top 4 unit. That, and we need to figure out what happens if we don't pull it off... thats a 5th KPF which is too many imo.
We need young defenders that can work with AJ, Smith, Armstrong and Brown (Maybe) for the next few years. We need to address this in the draft either this year or next year. I'd rather this year so we can experiment/develop, but not at the expense of unbalancing the list.
To keep the list balanced I propose one inside mid, one outside mid, and at least one defender. I think this is a plan the Swans will follow in 4 weeks time, maybe including a small forward with a late pick for depth.
The Actual Draft
Our picks are 23, 45, 47, 66, 67 and 103. This draft reminds me of a compromised 2009 draft, but whether its because of our picks or because of the talent pool I'm not sure.
I expect a lot of the names we've heard to be long gone by the time our number comes for 23, with a couple of exceptions. Surprisingly, I see them filling a big need if either one falls to us. Their names, Sam Colquhoun and Tanner Smith.
I can't name a player on our list similar to Sam. I would say he's a lot like a more silky Rhyce Shaw from what I've seen. But Tanner? Ted Richards. Ted Richards. TED RICHARDS. Just shuts down his man time and time again. Only problem is disposal, which will see him fall.
I like Nathan Hrovat if he's there in the 40's. Hrovat is a small inside midfielder. Think Moore with a little bit more pace. Otherwise, there is a tagger called Tom Temay. Shut down some high profile kids like Whitfield at the championships and was a nuisance off of Half-back. I like him a lot. Other names I'm going to include for these picks and others: Nathan Stark, Tom Tyquin, Alex Howson, Shannon Taylor
Stark is an inside midfielder. Not a big or strongly build midfielder but one of those genuine players who just puts his head over the footy and plays to win the ball.
Tyquin an Efficient user of the ball and an excellent decision maker and always seems to find the right target.
Howson played much of the season as a key forward in WA and performed to a high standard and then came into the U18 champs and really impressed as a key defender. Lacks defensive side though
Taylor is a mirror to Lewis Jetta - a damaging speedster by foot.
I also expect Harry Cunningham to be elevated.
Dream Draft
23. Tanner Smith
45. Nathan Hrovat
47. Shannon Taylor
65. Alex Howson
67. Harry Cunningham
