Losing the Close ones

[domus]

Been a little perplexed by our seeming inability to win our share of close games in recent seasons so I thought I might have a quick look back to see if it's just a perception or if it was supported by the facts.


Since the start of 2018 we've been involved in 9 games with a margin of 5 points or less - of these we have won 2, lost 6 and drawn one.

2020 - round 4 - loss to GWS by 4 points
round 2 - draw to Richmond
2019 - Prelim - loss to GWS by 4
round 17 - win over West Coast by 1
round 16 - loss to Hawthorn by 4
round 11 - loss to Freo by 4
round 6 - win over Essendon by 4
2018 - GF - enuff said
round 20 - loss to Swans by 2

I suspect that the previous couple of season weren't much better either.

There is always an element of luck with these tights games, but I am concerned we are losing more than we should. Maybe it will turn around, but it's not a great trend and in a tight season not being able to win these games could make all the difference.

thoughts?

The Giants alone have repeatedly got us in a number of tight contests. Remember when Johnson kicked a goal with 2 seconds left on the clock? They beat us in a tight one at the G early in 2018 and have done it again in the prelim and last week.

 

[domus]

I know Geelong has a phenomenal record when it comes to winning close games. I am not sure of the exact stats but I know they are impressive.

 

[sr36]

In close finishes, our ability to win vital contests is diminished. Our team structures cover us for much of each game, but when the whips are cracking at the end of a game, our ability to win vital contests is a problem.

Just because the sample size is small and you can't justify it statistaclly, it can still be real. I tend to agree that it's about winning contests, but don't really think it's personell based. I think our forward system isn't suited to tight finishes. We look to seperate defenders by our forwards spreading, but in tight finishes when things get really scrappy and teams get numbers back, we end up just bombing it to the hot spot and our spread out forwards can't get to the fall of the ball. I think it's about numbers at the contest.

 

[Roverjg]

I've had a feeling for a few years that the strength of our 2010 team was it's ability to win 1:1 contests. Back then we had Johnno, Maxy, Heater, Harry, Daisy, Rusty, Lukey Ball, Pendles, Swanny, Caff, Clokey, Jolly, Brown, Dids, Tooves, Leon, Beamer all of whom could be relied upon on a regular basis to win their 1:1's.
Skip forward to 2020 and we have (or Had) Maynard, Howe, Moore, Crisp, Sidey, Pendles, Grundy, Adams, Treloar, Mihocek and Stevo that consistently win their 1:1's and a group containing Elliot, JDG, Phillips, Mayne, Roughie, who sometimes win their 1:1's

In close finishes, our ability to win vital contests is diminished. Our team structures cover us for much of each game, but when the whips are cracking at the end of a game, our ability to win vital contests is a problem.

Based on your comments above. If we look at 3 years 2010-12 when the top group played. We played in 11 games where the result was less than a goal. We won 7, lost 2 and have drawn 2.

If we look at the bottom group from 2017-2020. We have played 12 games where the result has been less than a goal. We have won 3, lost 7, and drawn 2.

Since 1990 (30 years) we have been involved in 91 games where the result has been less than a goal. We have won 37 games, drawn 8 games and lost 46 games, for a win/loss of 40%.

 

[TradeDraft]

Same Thing again Tonight.

Making a Comeback but can't get in Front

 

[Soaring Magpie]

Same Thing again Tonight.

Making a Comeback but can't get in Front

Not the way to play football, let’s be honest this side is average at best

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Same Thing again Tonight.

Making a Comeback but can't get in Front

We didn’t get close enough to lose in a close one. We’re too soft to be effective in the wet, useless wet weather team.

 

[TradeDraft]

We didn’t get close enough to lose in a close one. We’re too soft to be effective in the wet, useless wet weather team.

Pack of Front Runners

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Ironically it was a very Steele Sidebottom night; too bad we're busy self-destructing.

 

[magpies42]

Been a little perplexed by our seeming inability to win our share of close games in recent seasons so I thought I might have a quick look back to see if it's just a perception or if it was supported by the facts.


Since the start of 2018 we've been involved in 9 games with a margin of 5 points or less - of these we have won 2, lost 6 and drawn one.

2020 - round 4 - loss to GWS by 4 points
round 2 - draw to Richmond
2019 - Prelim - loss to GWS by 4
round 17 - win over West Coast by 1
round 16 - loss to Hawthorn by 4
round 11 - loss to Freo by 4
round 6 - win over Essendon by 4
2018 - GF - enuff said
round 20 - loss to Swans by 2

I suspect that the previous couple of season weren't much better either.

There is always an element of luck with these tights games, but I am concerned we are losing more than we should. Maybe it will turn around, but it's not a great trend and in a tight season not being able to win these games could make all the difference.

thoughts?

I think context plays a larger part than the win/loss ratio. The GWS game, we were only really able to get back in when they went two players down, Bombers had us comprehensively beaten tonight we staged a come back but it would have been a miracle if we had won. Aside from the grand final, I think we do ok. Not great, but ok.

 

[DWil6]

Just as a comparison over a longer time period as a club.

1958 W Melb 18
1960 L Melb 48
1964 L Melb 4
1966 L St K 1
1970 L North 10
1977 D North
1977 L North 27
1979 L Carl 5
1980 L Rich 81
1981 L Carl 20
1990 W Ess 48
2002 L Bris 9
2003 L Bris 50
2010 D St K
2010 W St K 56
2011 L Geel 38
2018 L WC 5


10 points or less in the big game - 2 draws 6 losses 0 wins in 62 years. It gets worse if you go back further with another 3 gf losses 10 points or under. Our only grand final win ever by less than 10 is 1903 v Fitz by 2. Our second premiership. A total of 2 draws 9 loses 1 win.

 

[Pies_10]

We continuously lose the close ones because other than that first half against St Kilda we have shown no ability to score points.