Strategy Lukosius All In POLL

[kulak]

I voted maybe because I don’t know if Lukosius is any good.

IF our recruiting team are very confident that he is the next Pavlich / Riewoldt then the answer is Yes.

 

[1990crow]

We currently have 3 picks in the top 20.
If Sloane and Lynch go that’ll make it 5 with hopefully one of them being in that Pick 6-10 range for Sloane.
Say we let Mackay, Hampton, Otten, Cheney go as expected combined with the salaries of Sloane and Lynch we may well have more than enough to bring in McGovern and someone like Fantasia (trade out our 2019 first for him and Francis).

Sloane, 2019 first + Pick 19 + 2019 second for Pick 5 (ESS), Francis and Fantasia.
McGovern in, Mackay out.
Hartigan + Our first (15-18) for Sydney’s first (12-15) and 2019 second.
Pick 5 + Lynch for Pick 1.
Sydney’s first + Melbourne’s first for Pick 4 (G.C)

Summary.
Out: Sloane, Hartigan, Mackay, Lynch, Hampton, Cheney, Otten, Melbourne’s first, our first, Gibson and Pick 19.
In: McGovern, Lukosius, Rankine, Francis, Fantasia, CEY, Pick 37, M.Murphy (or keep Gibson)

Brown Talia Doedee
Laird McGovern Kelly
Murphy Gibbs Seedsman
Fantasia Walker Rankine
Betts Jenkins McGovern
Jacobs M.Crouch B.Crouch
Greenwood Smith Milera CEY/Douglas/Atkins/Knight/Murphy

Plus emerging talent like Lukosius, Galluci, Fogarty, McPherson, Himmelburg, Poholke

Strong best 22 and 3 elite prospects coming through.
My point is we have 3 picks likely to be in that 10-19 range, Sloane (Pick 7ish), Lynch (Pick 12ish), 2019 first, option to upgrade Hartigan and use him as trade collateral for another pick in that 12-15 range. 7 chips. The option of trading up to get Lukosius and Rankine should be taken seriously. We’ve showed Sloane can be covered even with B.Crouch out. Add Crouch and Smith back in and the loss won’t stop us from being a top 4 team. Upgrade Hartigan and replace Lynch with Fantasia and we will be able to have another crack at the flag whilst also have 3 elite prospects in Fogarty, Lukosius and Rankine to prop us up over the next 5-6 years.

Upgrade.

 

[Bicks]

No way in hell

Lukosius is a dodgy sprinkler cap away from doing his knee and there’s no guarantee he’ll be more Riewoldt and less McCartin

I back our guys to find 3 Talia, Lever, Dangerfield, Smith, Milera types with those late first round picks

Cut it out, has zero similarities to McCartin.....Zero.

 

[1990crow]

I voted maybe because I don’t know if Lukosius is any good.

IF our recruiting team are very confident that he is the next Pavlich / Riewoldt then the answer is Yes.

He may be better than both, better player than both were at 17.

 

[1990crow]

Cut it out, has zero similarities to McCartin.....Zero.

It’s like comparing Nick Riewoldt to Ian Perrie.

 

[Bicks]

It’s like comparing Nick Riewoldt to Ian Perrie.

Only thing McCartin is better at over both St. Nick and Perrie is he's a way better set shot kick, Lukosius is way, way better than all of them in that department....he's almost an elite kick.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Cut it out, has zero similarities to McCartin.....Zero.

I don’t think that the point being made is specific to McCartin, just that McCartin is the most recent no.1 to fail so is being used as the example ... the point is that whilst Lukosius looks the goods to become a superstar at the moment.. there’s not a rolled gold 100% guarantee that he will become as good as a Riewoldt/carey/Pavlich and no guarantee he won’t become as mediocre as watts/McCartin..

So many no.1 picks are talked up as the next out and out champion before they’re drafted.. and yet a fair few don’t live up to it..

Thus the risk is far too great to waste three, two yes, but not three firsts on him... far safer to tell him we’ll trade for him in three years time if he wants to come home..

 

[arrowman]

Not while we've got 3 top 20 picks.

If it got to 4-5 via Sloane/Lynch then yes.

(I think that's unlikely)

 

[1990crow]

Not while we've got 3 top 20 picks.

If it got to 4-5 via Sloane/Lynch then yes.

(I think that's unlikely)

Why do you say its unlikely? Sloane appears gone and Lynch may be too.

 

[Bicks]

I don’t think that the point being made is specific to McCartin, just that McCartin is the most recent no.1 to fail so is being used as the example ... the point is that whilst Lukosius looks the goods to become a superstar at the moment.. there’s not a rolled gold 100% guarantee that he will become as good as a Riewoldt/carey/Pavlich and no guarantee he won’t become as mediocre as watts/McCartin..

So many no.1 picks are talked up as the next out and out champion before they’re drafted.. and yet a fair few don’t live up to it..

Thus the risk is far too great to waste three, two yes, but not three firsts on him... far safer to tell him we’ll trade for him in three years time if he wants to come home..

Why the Saints used Pick 1 on McCartin is still a mystery to many who had watched him play TAC Cup, and that's was without the added possibility his type 1 diabetes could prove to be problematic going forward.

Nowhere was McCartin ever talked of in the same terms of Lukosius ability or potential wise.

Just watch Lukosius tear up the Championships and I think you'll be changing your tune pretty quickly.

 

[El Doederino]

Cut it out, has zero similarities to McCartin.....Zero.

A forward expected to go pick 1. That’s similarity enough.

Could have said Watts, Boyd, Patton, Weitering.

Fact is there are no guarantees. Would rather hedge our bets on 3 picks 10-20 than go all in on 1.

 

[Geoffa32]

It's an interesting one.

I'd rather Dustin Martin over all three of Milera, Doedee and Gallucci

But I'd rather Talia, Smith and Matt Crouch over Dustin Martin

No club wanted him four years ago.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[El Doederino]

Why the Saints used Pick 1 on McCartin is still a mystery to many who had watched him play TAC Cup, and that's was without the added possibility his type 1 diabetes could prove to be problematic going forward.

Nowhere was McCartin ever talked of in the same terms of Lukosius ability or potential wise.

Just watch Lukosius tear up the Championships and I think you'll be changing your tune pretty quickly.

That’s great. And he does a knee, breaks his leg, has multiple concussions, or just generally doesn’t kick on in development the way you’d expect, and we’ve done 3 top draft chances instead of 1. That’s worse than Tippett negligence.

 

[cmndstab]

We currently have 3 picks in the top 20.
If Sloane and Lynch go that’ll make it 5 with hopefully one of them being in that Pick 6-10 range for Sloane.

I don't think we'll be getting a pick in the 6-10 range for Sloane.

 

[Bicks]

A forward expected to go pick 1. That’s similarity enough.

Could have said Watts, Boyd, Patton, Weitering.

Fact is there are no guarantees. Would rather hedge our bets on 3 picks 10-20 than go all in on 1.

Well I'll just leave that up to those that have seen a lot more of the draftees to do their ratings and due diligence as to how best utilise our picks......Haggis and his crew.
Personally I wouldn't do 3 1st round picks for any one player but I'll leave that to those that have all the information at their fingertips not those that have seen very little if any of most of the potential draft prospects to assess their draft value.

 

[arrowman]

Why do you say its unlikely? Sloane appears gone and Lynch may be too.

I think it's unlikely both will go, and we'll get a top 20 pick for each.

- although when I type that, I suppose it doesn't sound as "unlikely" as I thought Maybe it's just the thought of that sort of draft bounty that feels so unlikely.

Hey, 5 picks in the top 20? That's pants down and lap around the table time, as a certain recruiter once said!

 

[Crows I Am]

I haven't done a lot of research into the draft this year but from the little i have read there are meant to be quite a few good SA lads in the top 20 so I would rather we picked up 3 solid players (including a couple of the locals) than risking it all on one player. If 2 of them turned out to be genuine A graders then that is a win.

Hopefully with one of them we get someone with X factor that can play in the midfield!

 

[Crows I Am]

I don't think we'll be getting a pick in the 6-10 range for Sloane.

Agreed, I still get the feeling that we might take the compo pick if he decides to leave.

 

[pjcrows]

3? No

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Schache and McCartin might have clubs running scared of drafting a key forward really early.

We'll take that worry off their hands if they like. May not cost all three picks either if we can tie a sure bet player into the deal

 

[GrommoT]

Also for reference

15 + 19 = 4... Hello saints!

That is statistically based on salaries of drafted players over a fairly long period (and I think is right to use as a starting point) but when a draft looks like a bumper crop, I'd reckon you have to modify the scale a bit, and points of picks 1 to 25 in this draft ought to be more like the orange in this comparison (multiply points by 100):

 

[GrommoT]

We currently have 3 picks in the top 20.
If Sloane and Lynch go that’ll make it 5 with hopefully one of them being in that Pick 6-10 range for Sloane.
Say we let Mackay, Hampton, Otten, Cheney go as expected combined with the salaries of Sloane and Lynch we may well have more than enough to bring in McGovern and someone like Fantasia (trade out our 2019 first for him and Francis).

Sloane, 2019 first + Pick 19 + 2019 second for Pick 5 (ESS), Francis and Fantasia.
McGovern in, Mackay out.
Hartigan + Our first (15-18) for Sydney’s first (12-15) and 2019 second.
Pick 5 + Lynch for Pick 1.
Sydney’s first + Melbourne’s first for Pick 4 (G.C)

Summary.
Out: Sloane, Hartigan, Mackay, Lynch, Hampton, Cheney, Otten, Melbourne’s first, our first, Gibson and Pick 19.
In: McGovern, Lukosius, Rankine, Francis, Fantasia, CEY, Pick 37, M.Murphy (or keep Gibson)

Brown Talia Doedee
Laird McGovern Kelly
Murphy Gibbs Seedsman
Fantasia Walker Rankine
Betts Jenkins McGovern
Jacobs M.Crouch B.Crouch
Greenwood Smith Milera CEY/Douglas/Atkins/Knight/Murphy

Plus emerging talent like Lukosius, Galluci, Fogarty, McPherson, Himmelburg, Poholke

Strong best 22 and 3 elite prospects coming through.
My point is we have 3 picks likely to be in that 10-19 range, Sloane (Pick 7ish), Lynch (Pick 12ish), 2019 first, option to upgrade Hartigan and use him as trade collateral for another pick in that 12-15 range. 7 chips. The option of trading up to get Lukosius and Rankine should be taken seriously. We’ve showed Sloane can be covered even with B.Crouch out. Add Crouch and Smith back in and the loss won’t stop us from being a top 4 team. Upgrade Hartigan and replace Lynch with Fantasia and we will be able to have another crack at the flag whilst also have 3 elite prospects in Fogarty, Lukosius and Rankine to prop us up over the next 5-6 years.

Upgrade.

It's not often things line up like this year for Crows to possibly draft an SA bred superstar with pick 1 - and we might never get such a chance again. Suppose we know for sure he's going to be another Buddy, or Sticks Kernahan, or Ablett Senior - 3 late 1sts would be a bargain.

It's a bit like Eddie's Who Wants To Be a Millionaire ... we've answered the questions to take $100k and run, but we have a reasonable shot at the $1M - could take the mundane percentage option, or go for glory!

 

[Hodgy]

No way in hell

Lukosius is a dodgy sprinkler cap away from doing his knee and there’s no guarantee he’ll be more Riewoldt and less McCartin

I back our guys to find 3 Talia, Lever, Dangerfield, Smith, Milera types with those late first round picks

Yes but Franklin could have done a knee as soon as he got to Sydney but that didn't stop them from investing 10 million for 10 years in him and getting what looks now like 200 games from the best player in the league. Big rewards always demand big risks. Lukoscius looks like being at that level, and if the recruiters agree then he could certainly be worth 3 firsts.
However it Has to be maybe at this stage because we haven't seen the championships or know what picks we will have available and we also don't know what players we might lose. There are just too many variables to make the call now.
If forced to decide now then Gut feel is I wouldnt do it if it meant missing out on Rankine, because I think he is a generational talent as well, But yes if it meant missing out on say Rozee, Hately and Hill.

 

[BRL121]

The shine wears off new players very quickly. I don't think it's ever wise to get overly excited about any specific prospect pre-draft, no draftee is ever a guaranteed star in the making.

Furthermore, the best in the competition don't always come from the first few picks in the draft. So we may still have a good chance of finding a star with the handful of first rounders we're likely to have, particularly in this reportedly strong draft.

Stop being so damn sensible! You do realise that BF has a great history of hype over draft picks, don't you?

 

[Bicks]

Yes but Franklin could have done a knee as soon as he got to Sydney but that didn't stop them from investing 10 million for 10 years in him and getting what looks now like 200 games from the best player in the league. Big rewards always demand big risks. Lukoscius looks like being at that level, and if the recruiters agree then he could certainly be worth 3 firsts.
However it Has to be maybe at this stage because we haven't seen the championships or know what picks we will have available and we also don't know what players we might lose. There are just too many variables to make the call now.
If forced to decide now then Gut feel is I wouldnt do it if it meant missing out on Rankine, because I think he is a generational talent as well, But yes if it meant missing out on say Rozee, Hately and Hill.

Who was the last " once in a generation" small forward?? There's been some very good ones but none that I can recall off the top of my head??