Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[GremioPower]

The funny thing is, being beaten every 4th game which you are lamenting as such a horrible situation equates to about a 17-5 season, which should be good enough for top 2, let alone top 4. At this stage we have dropped 1 game and are sitting comfortably in the top 8. We aren’t a perfect team and can’t win every week in a close competition. Essendon are a 5 goal better team at Etihad than anywhere else.

It took us three games to win 3 consecutive games in 2018.

 

[Chrizzt]

There are no short cuts in this comp. Trying to trade in other clubs 26/27/28 year old players is a proven disaster, shows a lack of growth mindset and vision. Do you think other clubs let go there treasure? I exclude Dixon who I think was a great pick up, a 6-6 monster is always welcome.

If we don’t win in next 2 years (after our trade versus draft summer) we have another 5-7 years of pain

Burgoyne, Gibson, Lake, Frawley, and McEvoy were all major players in Hawthorn's three-peat.
Ottens and Jolly were both major players for the Cats and Magpies premierships.

 

[Andre]

There are no short cuts in this comp. Trying to trade in other clubs 26/27/28 year old players is a proven disaster, shows a lack of growth mindset and vision. Do you think other clubs let go there treasure? I exclude Dixon who I think was a great pick up, a 6-6 monster is always welcome.

If we don’t win in next 2 years (after our trade versus draft summer) we have another 5-7 years of pain

Of our best 22 Dixon, Ryder, Polec, Motlop, Rockliff, Watts, Ebert are traded in. A third of the list, over several years isn't over the top. Even our 'recruiting spree' last year, is 3 out of 22 as top 22 players. It's hardly all in or bust.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Trading in players in their prime is literally the strategy that has won 8 out of the last 10 grand finals.

For completeness, the other strategies that won flags in that period include:
1. Dogs 2016 - Having the umpires give you every single free kick by being "first to the ball"™
2. Swans 2012 - Being Sydney and catching a superior team on an off day in bad weather

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Of our best 22 Dixon, Ryder, Polec, Motlop, Rockliff, Watts, Ebert are traded in. A third of the list, over several years isn't over the top. Even our 'recruiting spree' last year, is 3 out of 22 as top 22 players. It's hardly all in or bust.

2004 flag we had 9 players from other clubs, 3 of them Port boys who came back in Wanganeen, Wakelin and Pickett, Hardwick wasn't young when we got him, Bishop, Kingsley was an Essendon supplementary list player, Schofield, Montgomery and Mahoney.

All these guys were over 26 years of age in September 2004.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Also the next 5-7 year period with DBJ, Marshall, Wines, Wingard, Hayes, Pep, Boner, Polly, Atley, Howard, Barry, and possibly Rankine and/or Lukosius (a man can dream) is not exactly something I'm concerned with. We have some of the most exciting young talent in the AFL, and unlike some other teams with great youth, we have great mentors on the list also.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

And by "some other teams" I mean Carlton.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Also the next 5-7 year period with DBJ, Marshall, Wines, Wingard, Hayes, Pep, Boner, Polly, Atley, Howard, Barry, and possibly Rankine and/or Lukosius (a man can dream) is not exactly something I'm concerned with. We have some of the most exciting young talent in the AFL, and unlike some other teams with great youth, we have great mentors on the list also.

Potential is nice but it has to convert to actual greatness. It means we have plenty of players with 100+ games under their belt.

If we can't win a flag with Boak, Gray, Westhoff, Ryder, Dixon, Ebert, Hartlett and Broadbent, guys drafted in 2008 or earlier (Dixon being the exception but was 18 in 2008) in the next 2 or 3 season, then a flag is another 7 years away after that.

 

[TeeKray]

Trading in players in their prime is literally the strategy that has won 8 out of the last 10 grand finals.

For completeness, the other strategies that won flags in that period include:
1. Dogs 2016 - Having the umpires give you every single free kick by being "first to the ball"™
2. Swans 2012 - Being Sydney and catching a superior team on an off day in bad weather

Who did Geelong trade in for their two flags in that time?

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Who did Geelong trade in for their two flags in that time?

Hmm Ottens is the bloke I was thinking off when I made that post. He was certainly a developed big man they traded in I think around the age of 24. Admittedly it's weaker than the Hawthorn, Richmond or Collingwood examples.

 

[FishingRick04]

Some of our older more experienced players that the team rely on are really the problem. So if they go I’m not sure it’s that much of a disaster. Look at our reinvented defensive unit!

 

[Andre]

Who did Geelong trade in for their two flags in that time?

They had all their father-sons instead. Father-sons, trade ins, merger (Brisbane), COLA (Brisbane and Sydney) or starting in the AFL concessions, when was the (almost) completely drafted players flag? Has there been any? And in the pre-draft 70’s and 80’s it was Vic clubs buying players from other states.

There’ll always be adjustments required, just need to be doing them right.

 

[Macca19]

Geelong only traded in the one. Sydney had big success with trade ins for their 12 flag. Kennedy, Mumford, Richards, Mattner, Shaw, Morton all played whilst McGlynn & Everitt were close to playing as well.

 

[Forzaport]

Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong, Bulldogs, Richmond, Sydney all traded in mature players. This shouldn’t even be an argument.

 

[TeeKray]

You can't use Geelong as an example for trading in literally one player. Every team in history has traded in a player at some point.

 

[Forzaport]

You can't use Geelong as an example for trading in literally one player. Every team in history has traded in a player at some point.

Sure you can. Trading in a lead ruck for 3 flags in 4 GF appearances certainly has to count. We're not talking about a minor contribution here.

 

[TeeKray]

Sure you can. Trading in a lead ruck for 3 flags in 4 GF appearances certainly has to count. We're not talking about a minor contribution here.

You could mount this argument should nearly any team win the flag.

North Melbourne won the flag - Jarrad Waite, what a trade in!

Gold Coast won the flag - Jarrod Witts, what a trade in!

Brisbane won the flag - Stefan Martin, what a trade in!

Carlton won the flag - Liam Jones, what a trade in!

Trading in a host of players as we've done across many years is different from trading in a player or two to fill key needs as teams like Geelong and Collingwood did when they won flags. It's a legitimate strategy - Hawthorn (2013-2015 version) and Richmond prove that. But it's a bit carn to imply that every premiership team has been built like that.

 

[Forzaport]

You could mount this argument should nearly any team win the flag.

North Melbourne won the flag - Jarrad Waite, what a trade in!

Gold Coast won the flag - Jarrod Witts, what a trade in!

Brisbane won the flag - Stefan Martin, what a trade in!

Carlton won the flag - Liam Jones, what a trade in!

Trading in a host of players as we've done across many years is different from trading in a player or two to fill key needs as teams like Geelong and Collingwood did when they won flags. It's a legitimate strategy - Hawthorn (2013-2015 version) and Richmond prove that. But it's a bit carn to imply that every premiership team has been built like that.

Not every premiership team but certainly ones in recent memory.

I think it's more a case of current systems in place. Free Agency and future pick trading have encouraged far greater player movement in recent years than the early 00s. Moving forward, every premiership team will arguably contain a mixture of draftees, free agents and traded in players.

Also, the systems in place that have been nurfed such as father/son and priority picks not only gave individual clubs a huge leg up but also served to discourage player movement as there was less of a need to trade.

Geelong is probably the last team to build a premiership unit mostly out of the draft but even they had a heap of father/son leg ups as well as a possible Essendon-lite system in place. What a luxury to draft Bartel at pick 7 when you know Ablett is locked in as a 3rd round pick.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We are so far off being an deserved top 4 team and we still need to build.

We are a long way from that premiership after watching some of the shite our players are offering up today. We obviously lack an actual winning culture at this club, if we had it we would not get easily beaten every 3rd-4th game for the last God knows how long.

I'll check back on this building for a premiership when we have players that rock up each week. We don't need to win, not being pathetic would be good.

Same frustrating shite every year.

Maybe janus can shed some light on this building for a premiership for me

We are not that far off being the 4th best side. People have to remember being 4th means you have bugger all chance of making a GF. Nobody has won from 4th since current system started in 2000 and the Bulldogs run from 7th was due to new circumstances with the finals bye that allowed them a break no other team got before 2016.

Only 2 of 18 sides have gone from 4th to a GF, Collingwood in 2002 when we choked in the QF and gave them a free ride and Sydney in 2006 when they beat WCE in Perth by 1pt in the QF in the middle of that extra ordinary run of close games between the 2 teams.

Finishing 4th doesn't secure you much unless you win a QF which more than likely you have to play in another state. If you finish 4th, you have to beat 1st, 2nd and 3rd to win a flag or have to beat one of the top 3 sides once and another twice to win a flag depending on who wins and loses in the first 3 weeks of finals.

What we need to be is a top 2 side if we really want to win the flag. That we aren't, without Ryder and probably not with him if the last 2 weeks are a true indicator.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Not every premiership team but certain ones in recent memory.

I think it's more a case of current systems in place. Free Agency and future pick trading have encouraged far greater player movement in recent years than the early 00s. Moving forward, every premiership team will arguably contain a mixture of draftees, free agents and traded in players.

Also, the systems in place that have been nurfed such as father/son and priority picks not only gave individual clubs a huge leg up but also served to discourage player movement as there was less of a need to trade.

Geelong is probably the last team to build a premiership unit mostly out of the draft but even they had a heap of father/son leg ups as well as a possible Essendon-lite system in place. What a luxury to draft Bartel at pick 7 when you know Ablett is locked in as a 3rd round pick.

Or Selwood at 7 when the best KPF in 2006 draft is locked away at 3rd pick for F/S for Hawkins when he was a top 10 pick.

Geelong's trading for premiership players included Harley in 1998, Mooney in 1999. Ok they were young but they were still trades from other clubs and had Scarlett, Blake, Ablett, Ablett, Hawkins from F/S picks plus 3 or 4 other F/S picks that didnt make it. They traded out for picks.

But the real key is having the best recruiting guy in the league. Stephen Wells joined the recruiting team in 1984, became head recruiter in 1995 and is still there. That's a big difference. A guy with a consistent philosophy and had 15 years experience before he started putting all the pieces together from the 1999 draft onward. And once you get to Geelong they send you to the weight room to bulk up, to be physically strong enough to play in your first or second year. Not this 4 years of eating lettuce leaves before you stack on muscle and are ready for AFL.

 

[Andre]

We are not that far off being the 4th best side. People have to remember being 4th means you have bugger all chance of making a GF. Nobody has won from 4th since current system started in 2000 and the Bulldogs run from 7th was due to new circumstances with the finals bye that allowed them a break no other team got before 2016.

Only 2 of 18 sides have gone from 4th to a GF, Collingwood in 2002 when we choked in the QF and gave them a free ride and Sydney in 2006 when they beat WCE in Perth by 1pt in the QF in the middle of that extra ordinary run of close games between the 2 teams.

Finishing 4th doesn't secure you much unless you win a QF which more than likely you have to play in another state. If you finish 4th, you have to beat 1st, 2nd and 3rd to win a flag or have to beat one of the top 3 sides once and another twice to win a flag depending on who wins and loses in the first 3 weeks of finals.

What we need to be is a top 2 side if we really want to win the flag. That we aren't, without Ryder and probably not with him if the last 2 weeks are a true indicator.

Yes, there’s a good chance a Vic side finishing 3rd or 4th is going to get another Vic side, negating the home ground issue. Unless we’re playing Adelaide (god forbid) we aren’t getting that.

And for likely finals sides GWS is a much different proposition if we’re playing them in a QF at AO, then in NSW. Ditto if we face Essendon in a final at AO versus the AFL being dicks and scheduling at Etihad. The whole 3-1 is good, is fine for making the finals, but we have a very thin margin of error for top 2 and a good, rather then so-so launching pad for a flag.

 

[Janus]

Please regale me with who is actually better than us?

As of right now, the following teams are performing better than us statistically, according to the same formula that predicted Richmond was one of the best sides in the competition last year (before anyone else rated them):

1. West Coast (played Sydney (OS), Western Bulldogs (ES), Geelong (OS), Gold Coast (OS)) - Contenders played 2 (Home - 1-1)
2. Adelaide (played Essendon (ES), Richmond (AO), St Kilda (ES), Collingwood (AO)) - Contenders played 2 (Home 1-0, Away 0-1)
3. North Melbourne (played Gold Coast (CS), St Kilda (ES), Melbourne (MCG), Carlton (MCG)) - Contenders played 1 (Away 0-1)
4. GWS (played Western Bulldogs (UNSW), Collingwood (MCG), Sydney (SCG), Fremantle (UNSW)) - Contenders played 1 (Away 0-1)
5. Richmond (played Carlton (MCG), Adelaide (AO), Hawthorn (MCG), Brisbane (MCG)) - Contenders played 2 (Home 1-0, Away 0-1)
6. Hawthorn (played Collingwood (MCG), Geelong (MCG), Richmond (MCG), Melbourne (MCG)) - Contenders played 3 (Home 2-1)
7. Sydney (played West Coast (OS), Port Adelaide (SCG), GWS (SCG), Western Bulldogs (ES)) - Contenders played 2 (Home 1-1)
8. Port Adelaide (played Fremantle (AO), Sydney (SCG), Brisbane (AO), Essendon (ES)) - Contenders played 2 (Away 1-1)

You'll notice that of the teams above us, the only other team to have a decent win away from home that actually involved getting in a plane has been Sydney against West Coast - and I don't even rate West Coast.

No one made top two in R4. Don't have a cry about our performance simply because we met a side that some people expect to win the flag in an away game for the second time in four weeks and we lost by 22 points.

Winning against Geelong - the first contender we've played at home - is a must.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Trading in a host of players as we've done across many years is different from trading in a player or two to fill key needs as teams like Geelong and Collingwood did when they won flags. It's a legitimate strategy - Hawthorn (2013-2015 version) and Richmond prove that. But it's a bit carn to imply that every premiership team has been built like that.

Yeah I'll admit that I wrote that pretty quickly.

Geelong is a fairly weak example. Sydney might be a slightly better example than I gave credit to.

There is no question at all that it is what worked for Hawthorn multiple times, Richmond, and Collingwood though. And honestly I can't speak for everyone but I don't even consider the Doggies in 2016 a real premiership. There should be a commission looking in to it. And Sydney who were the real premiers in 2016 followed the pattern.

Keep in mind the post I was responding to said: "Trying to trade in other clubs 26/27/28 year old players is a proven disaster, shows a lack of growth mindset and vision."

I posted that to show that it clearly isn't a proven disaster. The opposite isn't always exactly true, but there sure is a pretty strong correlation between destination clubs that have the balls to trade in role players to fix their weaknesses and success.

 

[*PAF]

We have the players to be a top 4 side.
We have the team to be a top 4 side if no one gets injured.
We have the team to be anywhere from 2 to 12 if one or two key position players get injured and we chop and change rather than keep trying to play how we had planned at the start of the season.

We would be playing 3 KPFs if Ryder wasn't injured. If Marshall doesn't come up will we play with only 2 plus have Dixon rotate in the ruck leaving Watts as the only tall up front? Fair chance of happening on past form from recent years.

 

[raptalia]

Hmm Ottens is the bloke I was thinking off when I made that post. He was certainly a developed big man they traded in I think around the age of 24. Admittedly it's weaker than the Hawthorn, Richmond or Collingwood examples.

Of course Geelong didn't have to trade big like Hawthorn because between 1999 and 2002 Geelong picked up Joel Corey, Paul Chapman, Cameron Ling, Corey Enright, Max Hunt, Steve Johnson, James Bartel, Andrew Mackie, Josh Hunt, Tom Lonergan in successive drafts and also scored Garry Ablett Jnr under F&S so they didn't need to trade big. The big plus for Geelong was that all of those players were almost AFL ready and slotted in. I doubt that any club has recruited that well over a short period. It set them up for a decade and shows that trading, while important, is not all there is to it.

I guess Hawthorn and Geelong were at opposite ends of the methodology spectrum when it came to building for a Premiership. Hawthorn traded their way to a couple while Geelong got it right at the Draft. You have to trade well for sure but getting the Draft right also helps.

I do not know Geelong's 99-02 secret but I sure wish we had a bottle of it.