Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[raptalia]

We are not that far off being the 4th best side. People have to remember being 4th means you have bugger all chance of making a GF. Nobody has won from 4th since current system started in 2000 and the Bulldogs run from 7th was due to new circumstances with the finals bye that allowed them a break no other team got before 2016.

Only 2 of 18 sides have gone from 4th to a GF, Collingwood in 2002 when we choked in the QF and gave them a free ride and Sydney in 2006 when they beat WCE in Perth by 1pt in the QF in the middle of that extra ordinary run of close games between the 2 teams.

Finishing 4th doesn't secure you much unless you win a QF which more than likely you have to play in another state. If you finish 4th, you have to beat 1st, 2nd and 3rd to win a flag or have to beat one of the top 3 sides once and another twice to win a flag depending on who wins and loses in the first 3 weeks of finals.

What we need to be is a top 2 side if we really want to win the flag. That we aren't, without Ryder and probably not with him if the last 2 weeks are a true indicator.

History shows you are right but of course it depends who finishes top, where you have to play them and the closeness of the competition. A fourth place finish and playing Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in that first final might not be as daunting as playing a Melbourne based club at the MCG.

As we have both posted before it all gets down to our performances at home. Last year we did well on the road and were not that far off of a top four finish but we lost narrowly to West Coast and Richmond at Adelaide Oval and had we won those two we could have finished top. This week's result might well be the difference between finishing top and finishing fourth.

 

[GremioPower]

Finals are a different beast. It all depends on form. We cannot fear playing in Perth, Sydney, or at the MCG (Kardinia and Docklands are scary, though. ) If we are playing consistently well as the Finals come, our seeding is circumstantial.

 

[*PAF]

Finals are a different beast. It all depends on form. We cannot fear playing in Perth, Sydney, or at the MCG (Kardinia and Docklands are scary, though. ) If we are playing consistently well as the Finals come, our seeding is circumstantial.

I've never subscribed to finals being different.
If a team has a game that stands up to pressure footy all year then nothing changes.
Playing one style during the year and then changing it for finals is a recipe for disaster.
Not sure any coach would do that deliberately.

 

[GremioPower]

I've never subscribed to finals being different.
If a team has a game that stands up to pressure footy all year then nothing changes.
Playing one style during the year and then changing it for finals is a recipe for disaster.
Not sure any coach would do that deliberately.

It is not about style. It is simply a new competition. After the marathon, the top runners face series of short sprint races to see who's the best.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Of course Geelong didn't have to trade big like Hawthorn because between 1999 and 2002 Geelong picked up Joel Corey, Paul Chapman, Cameron Ling, Corey Enright, Max Hunt, Steve Johnson, James Bartel, Andrew Mackie, Josh Hunt, Tom Lonergan in successive drafts and also scored Garry Ablett Jnr under F&S so they didn't need to trade big. The big plus for Geelong was that all of those players were almost AFL ready and slotted in. I doubt that any club has recruited that well over a short period. It set them up for a decade and shows that trading, while important, is not all there is to it.

I guess Hawthorn and Geelong were at opposite ends of the methodology spectrum when it came to building for a Premiership. Hawthorn traded their way to a couple while Geelong got it right at the Draft. You have to trade well for sure but getting the Draft right also helps.

I do not know Geelong's 99-02 secret but I sure wish we had a bottle of it.

Meh I don't really rate Geelong's drafting, despite how good it looks.

Their main secrets are in my opinion is 2-3 things:
1. Father-son picks. Has been pointed out before, but getting a few key names in that list on the old father-son rules meant they could pick up first rounders, while also getting elite talent.
2. Culture and training. Cameron Ling would have likely been an irrelevant footnote in footballing history if he had been picked up by the Dees during that period. He was picked up at 38, with nothing genetically that said he had much potential (moreso than others). But he bought in to the club culture, played his role, and trained hard.

And possibly....
3. Drug cheating by Bomber Thompson, their head coach, who went on to cheat using drugs at the Bombers, before getting arrested on drug-related issues.

 

[*PAF]

It is not about style. It is simply a new competition. After the marathon, the top runners face series of short sprint races to see who's the best.

Yeah nah.
The term used to be used a lot to describe teams that played fast non contested footy such as the Bulldogs and Port in the early 2000s. The fact that a number of these teams did not go all the way has somehow evolved into finals being a different type of competition. Finals have always been games where all players give 100%.

Fwiw IMO the fact that we had to restructure our backlines during the finals had more to do with us not winning the flag than the style of footy we were playing at the time.

Teams like Sydney in recent years do not need to change how they play. You could say they play finals type footy every week.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Meh I don't really rate Geelong's drafting, despite how good it looks.

Their main secrets are in my opinion is 2-3 things:
1. Father-son picks. Has been pointed out before, but getting a few key names in that list on the old father-son rules meant they could pick up first rounders, while also getting elite talent.
2. Culture and training. Cameron Ling would have likely been an irrelevant footnote in footballing history if he had been picked up by the Dees during that period. He was picked up at 38, with nothing genetically that said he had much potential (moreso than others). But he bought in to the club culture, played his role, and trained hard.

And possibly....
3. Drug cheating by Bomber Thompson, their head coach, who went on to cheat using drugs at the Bombers, before getting arrested on drug-related issues.

FMD you don't rate their drafting. Really. Whose do you rate?

Read the first 3 or 4 pages in this thread which started in 2008 and tell me who has done better?

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Did you read the rest of my post?

If we could have picked up Gary Ablett with pick 40, and Hawkins with pick 41, don't you think we would have? Also it's a cop out to suggest players like Ling were just natural talents who they got lucky to pick up later in the draft. They were lucky with father sons, but they also developed a winning culture, they worked bloody hard, and they got the best out of their players.

Compare that to the Dees who had top 10 pick after top 10 pick and haven't made the finals since 2006.

 

[*PAF]

Add Scarlett plus a couple of others not quite to the same level.
However they also recruited well then restructured the club so that the coach could focus on coaching plus surrounded him with high calibre assistants and off field staff.

A club needs more than just a decent coach and players to build a dynasty.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Did you read the rest of my post?

If we could have picked up Gary Ablett with pick 40, and Hawkins with pick 41, don't you think we would have? Also it's a cop out to suggest players like Ling were just natural talents who they got lucky to pick up later in the draft. They were lucky with father sons, but they also developed a winning culture, they worked bloody hard, and they got the best out of their players.

Compare that to the Dees who had top 10 pick after top 10 pick and haven't made the finals since 2006.

Yes I did, and it didn't get any better.

Stephen Wells has been in the Geelong recruiting department since 1984 and head recruiter since 1995 and in 2011 when the List Manager position was invented, he got that gig added to his head recruiter role as well, and still holds it.

Which other head recruiting guy has that pedigree? Which club still has their chief recruiter from 1995? He is the best in the business and that's why he has drafted well over 24 drafts. You might not rate it, but you might not have much of idea compared to recruiters?

In 2001 Ablett was not seen as the best player in the draft. He had a poor U/18 championship and didn't make the All Oz U/18 side. He was regularly rated as mid 20's to 30 pick. He was picked up for free at 40. You reckon Geelong would have lived in an economists ceteris paribus world and not adjusted their strategy if they had to use pick 25 of get him??

Go back and look at who they traded out to get picks in what the industry dubbed at the first Super Draft. 1997 might be as good but the industry didnt dub it that. Wells and Geelong knew what was in the pipeline so they loaded up. They picked 9 players in that draft, 7 of which played at least 50 AFL games. That isn't luck, that is knowledge and footy smarts by Wells and his team. Ok Hawkins was a stroke of luck in 2007 so they could get Selwood at 7 as well, but what about all their other draft picks in between time??

What's Ling got to do with anything.? He was pick 38 ie a 3rd round pick 1999. How is that a late pick in the draft? Geelong had the handbag culture, the sleepy hollow culture, the good bloke culture and lose big finals culture. That changed when the best CEO in the AFL, Brian Cook did what is seen as the gold standard for club reviews, and shook the whole place up, and appointed their first GM of Footy Operations Neil Balme, told Thompson to coach and not do other stuff, told the players to toughen up, picked better leaders, sacked their fitness coach after 3 weeks of the 2006 season as he stuffed up, appointed Robertson and others to the fitness department etc. But if Wells didn't recruit the right blokes - who you dont rate - it wouldn't have changed much.

Chemical assistance - 95% of players are on chemical assistance, how benign it is, how close to the line it is, how blatant over the line it is, is different in each case. Abusing Therapeutic Use Exemptions and pumping up a player with 12 vials of painkillers to be able to play in finals and grand finals has been done by many clubs and is as blatant an abuse as you'll find, but its on the right side of the legal line.

 

[1954]

I would be very surprised if at least a dozen coaches wouldn't swap their list with ours, and if we underachieve again Mickey V should be the first one out the door, followed closely by Chad Cornes, who had the arse coached off him by Mattner in last years sanfl gf, plus Alberton ultimately becoming a Cornes free zone sounds good to me.

Re Voss, our much lauded midfield usually struggles unless Ryder is well on top, so the campaigner who gave him a 5 year contract needs his arse kicked too - sorry KT!

 

[vozzon]

Did you read the rest of my post?

If we could have picked up Gary Ablett with pick 40, and Hawkins with pick 41, don't you think we would have? Also it's a cop out to suggest players like Ling were just natural talents who they got lucky to pick up later in the draft. They were lucky with father sons, but they also developed a winning culture, they worked bloody hard, and they got the best out of their players.

Compare that to the Dees who had top 10 pick after top 10 pick and haven't made the finals since 2006.

Add Mathew Scarlett at pick 45 as a father son. Having those 3 really helped. Same as the Bulldogs with Libba, Wallis and Hunter. Getting just 3 AFL capable players through father son is a bonus let alone the crop Geelong got.

 

[Joelg]

Sydney won a flag in 12 and Hawthorn created a dynasty using that very strategy. Doesnt mean we will win it, but to say its a proven disaster is wrong.

Any change of thought after watching tonight. Other clubs don’t let go really good players without a fight. Motlop? Watts! Rockliff? No short cuts in this league

 

[Joelg]

Of our best 22 Dixon, Ryder, Polec, Motlop, Rockliff, Watts, Ebert are traded in. A third of the list, over several years isn't over the top. Even our 'recruiting spree' last year, is 3 out of 22 as top 22 players. It's hardly all in or bust.

Belong exposed us, should always go through the draft unless you get a special eg Brad Ebert or Charlie Dixon. Watts..........really. Motlop..........please. Rockliff at 28 a 4 year deal on big $$$$$. Please, meanwhile Geelongs 21/22 year old nobody’s run us ragged.

 

[*PAF]

Any change of thought after watching tonight. Other clubs don’t let go really good players without a fight. Motlop? Watts! Rockliff? No short cuts in this league

Motlop, Watts and Rockliff are good pick ups.
Our list is healthy and talented.

 

[Andre]

Motlop, Watts and Rockliff are good pick ups.
Our list is healthy and talented.

But when we have injuries or suspensions we throw structure out the window every time and it always costs. Yet the same mistakes are made every time we don’t have everyone available.

 

[Visenfest]

At this rate, I have serious concerns about whether we'll make the top 8, let alone the top 4.

 

[Waspy79]

This thread sickens me.

 

[JUSTWORK]

Step one, New Coach.

 

[TeeKray]

At this rate, I have serious concerns about whether we'll make the top 8, let alone the top 4.

We're a top 8 contender. Middle of the pack, see if we can sneak enough wins to play finals. The idea that we're a top 4 team in waiting was always based in nothing but blind faith and right now it looks like the pipe dream that it is.

 

[Visenfest]

We're a top 8 contender. Middle of the pack, see if we can sneak enough wins to play finals. The idea that we're a top 4 team in waiting was always based in nothing but blind faith and right now it looks like the pipe dream that it is.

We should be top 4. The talent is there in the playing group. We just don't have the coaches to turn that into success.

 

[TeeKray]

We should be top 4. The talent is there in the playing group. We just don't have the coaches to turn that into success.

Talent means shit all. Every AFL team has talent. It's what you do with it that counts. And everything that we've seen since 2014 says we're a mediocre, middle of the road, maybe slightly better than average football team.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We should be top 4. The talent is there in the playing group. We just don't have the coaches to turn that into success.

We dont have the talent. Look at the skills under pressure. Bloody hopeless. We dont have many smart footballers either. Marshall is almost top of the class and he has been at Alberton barely 18 months.

 

[El_Scorcho]

We dont have the talent. Look at the skills under pressure. Bloody hopeless. We dont have many smart footballers either. Marshall is almost top of the class and he has been at Alberton barely 18 months.

This is symptomatic of the players not understanding or believing in the gameplan.

We have heaps of talent. We have an incredibly talented list. The recruits should be helping us out in key areas. Rockliff should be shoring up our midfield defence by finding the ball when nobody else can. Watts should be shoring up our forward entry by providing another genuine mobile target up there. Motlop should be helping our run and carry and potency in front of goal.

None of those things are happening because we haven't actually recognised what's wrong.

It's like getting lap band surgery and continuing to eat a whole pizza for tea every night because the lap band should fix everything.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

This is symptomatic of the players not understanding or believing in the gameplan.

We have heaps of talent. We have an incredibly talented list. The recruits should be helping us out in key areas. Rockliff should be shoring up our midfield defence by finding the ball when nobody else can. Watts should be shoring up our forward entry by providing another genuine mobile target up there. Motlop should be helping our run and carry and potency in front of goal.

None of those things are happening because we haven't actually recognised what's wrong.

It's like getting lap band surgery and continuing to eat a whole pizza for tea every night because the lap band should fix everything.

Watts can't kick a ****en football properly. That's a lack of talent.